• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accuracy comparison

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The Fluctuation Patterns of Conjunctivitis Cases Caused by Asian Dust Storm (ADS) : Focused on the ADS Density and the Accuracy of ADS Forecast (황사예보 및 황사농도에 따른 결막염 질환의 발생 패턴 분석)

  • Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2013
  • This study has an aim to analyze the effects of ADS on conjunctivitis patients among the residents of Seoul, Korea, between 2005 and 2008. For this purpose, the number of medical services provided to conjunctivitis patients on the days of windblown dust storms and the days without any windblown dust storms were analyzed by conducting paired t-test. The interactive effects of the ADS density and the accuracy of ADS forecast on the fluctuation of conjunctivitis cases were also investigated. The results showed that, even with an accurate forecast issued 24 hours prior to the event, the average number of medical services provided for conjunctivitis was higher on the index days than the comparison days. On the other hand, in cases of failure to provide an accurate forecast 24 hours prior to the ADS event, the number of conjunctivitis attacks reported was statistically significantly higher on the index days for 3~5 days after the occurrence of a dust storm in relation to the comparison days. We also found that the rate of increase in asthma treatments on the index days with low level of $PM_{10}$ concentration rather than high $PM_{10}$ level was more significant for all lag days. This study provides evidence that ADS events are significantly associated with conjunctivitis symptoms and the failure to forecast ADS events with low $PM_{10}$ level might aggravate conjunctivitis disease.

Comparison of Reliability Estimation Methods for Ammunition Systems with Quantal-response Data (가부반응 데이터 특성을 가지는 탄약 체계의 신뢰도 추정방법 비교)

  • Ryu, Jang-Hee;Back, Seung-Jun;Son, Young-Kap
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.982-989
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    • 2010
  • This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems such as ammunitions. Quantal-response data, following a binomial distribution at each sampling time, characterizes lifetimes of one-shot systems. Various quantal-response data of different sample sizes are simulated using lifetime data randomly sampled from assumed weibull distributions with different shape parameters but the identical scale parameter in this paper. Then, reliability estimation methods in open literature are applied to the simulated quantal-response data to estimate true reliability over time. Rankings in estimation accuracy for different sample sizes are determined using t-test of SSE. Furthermore, MSE at each time, including both bias and variance of estimated reliability metrics for each method are analyzed to investigate how much both bias and variance contribute the SSE. From the MSE analysis, MSE provides reliability estimation trend for each method. Parametric estimation method provides more accurate reliability estimation results than the other methods for most of sample sizes.

Comparison of MLR and SVR Based Linear and Nonlinear Regressions - Compensation for Wind Speed Prediction (MLR 및 SVR 기반 선형과 비선형회귀분석의 비교 - 풍속 예측 보정)

  • Kim, Junbong;Oh, Seungchul;Seo, Kisung
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.65 no.5
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    • pp.851-856
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    • 2016
  • Wind speed is heavily fluctuated and quite local than other weather elements. It is difficult to improve the accuracy of prediction only in a numerical prediction model. An MOS (Model Output Statistics) technique is used to correct the systematic errors of the model using a statistical data analysis. The Most of previous MOS has used a linear regression model for weather prediction, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction of wind speed. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear regression method using SVR (Support Vector Regression) is introduced for a development of MOS for wind speed prediction. Experiments are performed for KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) re-analysis data from 2007 to 2013 year for Jeju Island and Busan area in South Korea. The MLR and SVR based linear and nonlinear methods are compared to each other for prediction accuracy of wind speed. Also, the comparison experiments are executed for the variation in the number of UM elements.

Comparison of Methodologies for Typical Meteorological Data Generation for Seoul (서울지역의 표준기상데이터 산출방법론 비교)

  • Yoo, Ho-Chun;Park, So-Hee;Kim, Kyoung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2008
  • This study aims to figure out typical meteorological data according to Korean time in order to evaluate building energy performance. Various methods of calculating typical meteorological data were compared and examined to improve accuracy and reliability of this study. This study analyzed and examined such methodologies as typical meteorological data for HASP/ACLD-8001, UK CIBSE TRY developed by CIBSE and prEN ISO 15927-4, (=ISO TRY) an international standard to evaluate annual energy demand of cooling and heating devices. In addition, actual data of KMA corresponding to Seoul in $1985{\sim}2005$ were statistically analyzed according to calculation methodology. The calculated typical meteorological data were compared te actual data using MBE, RMSE and t-Statistic. As a result, According to the comparison between average annual for HASP/ACLD-8001 and ISO TRY standard year, the average annual for HASP/ACLD-8001 is closer to actual measurement, showing that the use of typical meteorological data for HASP/ACLD-8001 is preferred. However, since the input format requested by current simulation is the same international standard as TRY. Therefore, it is necessary to improve accuracy of TRY calculation methodology and accordingly figure out Korean typical meteorological data based on average year.

Estimation of Streamflow Discharges using Kajiyama Equation and SWAT Model (가지야마공식과 SWAT 모형을 이용한 유출량 산정)

  • Shin, Yong-Chul;Shin, Min-Hwan;Kim, Woong-Ki;Lim, Kyoung-Jae;Choi, Joong-Dae
    • KCID journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2007
  • In this study, Kajiyama equation and SWAT model were used to estimate the available water resources from 1967 to 2003 at the small scale watershed, located in Dongnae-Myeon, Chunchen, Gangwon. The annual average streamflow for dry years estimated using the Kajiyama equation and the SWAT model were $2,593,779m^3$ and $2,579,162m^3$. The annual average streamflow for wet years were $7,223,804m^3$ and $7,035,253m^3$, respectively. The annual arrange streamflow for the entire 36 year period were $14,868,601m^3$ and $14,214,292m^3$, respectively. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for comparison between Kajiyama and SWAT were 0.90 and 0.79, respectively. The comparison indicates that the Kajiyama equation and the SWAT model can be used to estimate the streamflow at th study watershed with reasonable accuracy, although the estimated values were not compared with measured streamflow data, which is not available at the small scale study watershed. However, the Kajiyama equation is recommended for estimating available water resources at Dongnae-Myeon watershed because of its ease-of-use and reasonable accuracy compared with the SWAT model, requiring numerous model input and expensive GIS software in operating the model

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Analysis and comparison of the 2D/1D and quasi-3D methods with the direct transport code SHARK

  • Zhao, Chen;Peng, Xingjie;Zhang, Hongbo;Zhao, Wenbo;Li, Qing;Chen, Zhang
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2022
  • The 2D/1D method has become the mainstream of the direct transport calculation considering the balance of accuracy and efficiency. However, the 2D/1D method still suffers from stability issues. Recently, a quasi-3D method has been proposed with axial Legendre expansion. Analysis and comparison of the 2D/1D and quasi-3D method is conducted in theory from the equation derivation. Besides, the C5G7 benchmark, the KUCA benchmark and the macro BEAVRS benchmark are calculated to verify the theory comparisons of these two methods with the direct transport code SHARK. All results show that the quasi-3D method has better stability and accuracy than the 2D/1D method with worse efficiency and memory cost. It provides a new option for direct transport calculation with the quasi-3D method.

Hybrid radiation technique of frequency-domain Rankine source method for prediction of ship motion at forward speed

  • Oh, Seunghoon;Kim, Booki
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.260-277
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    • 2021
  • The appropriate radiation conditions of ship motion problem with advancing speed in frequency domain are investigated from a theoretical and practical point of view. From extensive numerical experiments that have been conducted for evaluation of the relevant radiation conditions, a hybrid radiation technique is proposed in which the Sommerfeld radiation condition and the free surface damping are mixed. Based on the comparison with the results of the translating and pulsating Green function method, the optimal damping factor of the hybrid radiation technique is selected, and the observed limitations of the proposed hybrid radiation technique are discussed, along with its accuracy obtained from the numerical solutions. Comparative studies of the forward-speed seakeeping prediction methods available confirm that the results of applying the hybrid radiation technique are relatively similar to those obtained from the translating and pulsating Green function method. This confirmation is made in comparisons with the results of solely applying either the free surface damping, or the Sommerfeld radiation condition. By applying the proposed hybrid radiation technique, the wave patterns, hydrodynamic coefficients, and motion responses of the Wigley III hull are finally calculated, and compared with those of model tests. It is found that, in comparison with the model test results, the three-dimensional Rankine source method adopting the proposed hybrid radiation technique is more robust in terms of accuracy and numerical stability, as well as in obtaining the forward speed seakeeping solution.

Comparison of Prediction Accuracy Between Regression Analysis and Deep Learning, and Empirical Analysis of The Importance of Techniques for Optimizing Deep Learning Models (회귀분석과 딥러닝의 예측 정확성에 대한 비교 그리고 딥러닝 모델 최적화를 위한 기법들의 중요성에 대한 실증적 분석)

  • Min-Ho Cho
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.299-304
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    • 2023
  • Among artificial intelligence techniques, deep learning is a model that has been used in many places and has proven its effectiveness. However, deep learning models are not used effectively in everywhere. In this paper, we will show the limitations of deep learning models through comparison of regression analysis and deep learning models, and present a guide for effective use of deep learning models. In addition, among various techniques used for optimization of deep learning models, data normalization and data shuffling techniques, which are widely used, are compared and evaluated based on actual data to provide guidelines for increasing the accuracy and value of deep learning models.

Finite Element Model for Wear Analysis of Conventional Friction Stir Welding Tool

  • Hyeonggeun Jo;Ilkwang Jang;Yeong Gil Jo;Dae Ha Kim;Yong Hoon Jang
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.118-122
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    • 2023
  • In our study, we develop a finite element model based on Archard's wear law to predict the cumulative wear and the evolution of the tool profile in friction stir welding (FSW) applications. Our model considers the rotational and translational behaviors of the tool, providing a comprehensive description of the wear process. We validate the accuracy of our model by comparing it against experimental results, examining both the predicted cumulative wear and the resulting changes to the tool profile caused by wear. We perform a detailed comparison between the predictions of the model and experimental data by manipulating non-dimensional coefficients comprising model parameters, such as element sizes and time increments. This comparison facilitates the identification of a specific non-dimensional coefficient condition that best replicates the experimentally observed cumulative wear. We also directly compare the worn tool profiles predicted by the model using this specific non-dimensional coefficient condition with the profiles obtained from wear experiments. Through this process, we identify the model settings that yield a tool wear profile closely aligning with the experimental results. Our research demonstrates that carefully selecting non-dimensional coefficients can significantly enhance the predictive accuracy of finite element models for tool wear in FSW processes. The results from our study hold potential implications for enhancing tool longevity and welding quality in industrial applications.

Analytical model of isolated bridges considering soil-pile-structure interaction for moderate earthquakes

  • Mohammad Shamsi;Ehsan Moshtagh;Amir H. Vakili
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.529-545
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    • 2023
  • The coupled soil-pile-structure seismic response is recently in the spotlight of researchers because of its extensive applications in the different fields of engineering such as bridges, offshore platforms, wind turbines, and buildings. In this paper, a simple analytical model is developed to evaluate the dynamic performance of seismically isolated bridges considering triple interactions of soil, piles, and bridges simultaneously. Novel expressions are proposed to present the dynamic behavior of pile groups in inhomogeneous soils with various shear modulus along with depth. Both cohesive and cohesionless soil deposits can be simulated by this analytical model with a generalized function of varied shear modulus along the soil depth belonging to an inhomogeneous stratum. The methodology is discussed in detail and validated by rigorous dynamic solution of 3D continuum modeling, and time history analysis of centrifuge tests. The proposed analytical model accuracy is guaranteed by the acceptable agreement between the experimental/numerical and analytical results. A comparison of the proposed linear model results with nonlinear centrifuge tests showed that during moderate (frequent) earthquakes the relative differences in responses of the superstructure and the pile cap can be ignored. However, during strong excitations, the response calculated in the linear time history analysis is always lower than the real conditions with the nonlinear behavior of the soil-pile-bridge system. The current simple and efficient method provides the accuracy and the least computational costs in comparison to the full three-dimensional analyses.