• 제목/요약/키워드: Accident Severity

검색결과 317건 처리시간 0.019초

K-평균 군집모형 및 순서형 로짓모형을 이용한 버스 사고 심각도 유형 분석 측면부 사고를 중심으로 (Analysis of Bus Accident Severity Using K-Means Clustering Model and Ordered Logit Model)

  • 이인식;이현미;장정아;이용주
    • 자동차안전학회지
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2021
  • Although accident data from the National Police Agency and insurance companies do not know the vehicle safety, the damage level information can be obtained from the data managed by the bus credit association or the bus company itself. So the accident severity was analyzed based on the side impact accidents using accident repair cost. K-means clustering analysis separated the cost of accident repair into 'minor', 'moderate', 'severe', and 'very severe'. In addition, the side impact accident severity was analyzed by using an ordered logit model. As a result, it is appeared that the longer the repair period, the greater the impact on the severity of the side impact accident. Also, it is appeared that the higher the number of collision points, the greater the impact on the severity of the side impact accident. In addition, oblique collisions of the angle of impact were derived to affect the severity of the accident less than right angle collisions. Finally, the absence of opponent vehicle and large commercial vehicles involved accidents were shown to have less impact on the side impact accident severity than passenger cars.

구조방정식을 이용한 고령운전자 교통사고 인적 피해 심각도 분석 (고양시를 중심으로) (An Analysis of Traffic Accident Injury Severity for Elderly Driver on Goyang-Si using Structural Equation Model)

  • 김솔람;윤덕근
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 2015
  • PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to verify traffic accident injury severity factors for elderly drivers and the relative relationship of these factors. METHODS : To verify the complicated relationship among traffic accident injury severity factors, this study employed a structural equation model (SEM). To develop the SEM structure, only the severity of human injuries was considered; moreover, the observed variables were selected through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The number of fatalities, serious injuries, moderate injuries, and minor injuries were selected for observed variables of severity. For latent variables, the accident situation, environment, and vehicle and driver factors were respectively defined. Seven observed variables were selected among the latent variables. RESULTS : This study showed that the vehicle and driver factor was the most influential factor for accident severity among the latent factors. For the observed variable, the type of vehicle, type of accident, and status of day or night for each latent variable were the most relative observed variables for the accident severity factor. To verify the validity of the SEM, several model fitting methods, including ${\chi}^2/df$, GFI, AGFI, CFI, and others, were applied, and the model produced meaningful results. CONCLUSIONS : Based on an analysis of results of traffic accident injury severity for elderly drivers, the vehicle and driver factor was the most influential one for injury severity. Therefore, education tailored to elderly drivers is needed to improve driving behavior of elderly driver.

판별분석을 활용한 주·야간 고속도로 교통사고 영향요인 비교연구 (Discriminant Analysis of Factors Affecting Traffic Accident Severity During Daytime and Nighttime)

  • 김경태;이수범;최지혜;박시내;서금열
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : Low visibility caused by dark surroundings at nighttime affects the likelihood of accidents, and various efforts, such as installing road safety facilities, have been made to reduce accidents at night. Despite these efforts, the nighttime severity index (SI) in Korea was higher than the daytime SI during 2011-2014. This study determined the factors affecting daytime and nighttime accident severity through a discriminant analysis. METHODS : Discriminant analysis. RESULTS : First, drowsiness, lack of attention, and lighting facilities affected both daytime and nighttime accident severity. Accidents were found to be caused by a low ability to recognize the driving conditions and a low obstacle avoidance capability. Second, road conditions and speeding affected only the daytime accident severity. Third, failure to maintain a safe distance significantly affected daytime accident severity and nonsignificantly affected nighttime accident severity. The majority of such accidents were caused by rear-end collisions of vehicles driving in the same direction; given the low relative speed difference in such cases, the shock imparted by the accidents was minimal. CONCLUSIONS : Accidents caused by a failure to maintain a safe distance has lower severity than do accidents caused by other factors.

간선도로 기능별 보행사고 심각도 분석과 모형 개발 (Pedestrian Accident Severity Analysis and Modeling by Arterial Road Function)

  • 백태헌;박민규;박병호
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES: The purposes are to analyze the pedestrian accident severity and to develop the accident models by arterial road function. METHODS: To analyze the accident, count data and ordered logit models are utilized in this study. In pursuing the above, this study uses pedestrian accident data from 2007 to 2011 in Cheongju. RESULTS : The main results are as follows. First, daytime, Tue.Wed.Thu., over-speeding, male pedestrian over 65 old are selected as the independent variables to increase pedestrian accident severity. Second, as the accident models of main and minor arterial roads, the negative binomial models are developed, which are analyzed to be statistically significant. Third, such the main variables related to pedestrian accidents as traffic and pedestrian volume, road width, number of exit/entry are adopted in the models. Finally, Such the policy guidelines as the installation of pedestrian fence, speed hump and crosswalks with pedestrian refuge area, designated pedestrian zone, and others are suggested for accident reduction. CONCLUSIONS: This study analyzed the pedestrian accident severity, and developed the negative binomial accident models. The results of this study expected to give some implications to the pedestrian safety improvement in Cheongju.

교차로, 횡단보도, 터널 구간에서 사고유형에 따른 상대적 위험도 분석 (Analysis of Relative Risk by Accident Types at Intersections, Crosswalk and Tunnel Sections)

  • 이현미;전교석;김형준;장정아
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제39권6호
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    • pp.841-851
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 교차로, 횡단보도, 터널 구간에서 교통사고 유형에 따른 위험 순위를 비교 분석한 것이다. 서울, 경기도에서 발생한 2014년부터 2017년까지의 교통사고자료 중 교통량 및 속도 자료와 결합 가능한 58,868건의 자료를 구축하고, 순서형 로짓모형을 활용하여 사고심각도 추정모형을 구축하였다. 추정된 모형을 기반으로 사고심각도에 영향을 미치는 요인을 규명하고, 영향을 미치는 정도를 살펴보았다. 또한 사고발생위치(교차로, 횡단보도, 터널)별, 사고유형별, 사고발생 시간이나 상황별로 상대적 위험도 분석을 통해 위험순위를 제시하였다. 분석 결과 사고발생 위치와 시간에 따라 사고심각도에 현격한 차이를 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 분석 자료로부터 산출된 사고 발생 빈도와 사고심각도와 비교해봤을 때, 발생 빈도가 적더라도 사고심각도 측면에서는 위중하거나, 발생 빈도가 높고, 사고심각도 또한 위중한 경우가 존재하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 교통사고유형의 위험 평가를 통해 도로별로 상대적으로 위험한 사고유형에 대한 이해가 가능하고 도로별, 사고유형의 교통사고 위험도 지수 개발에 기초자료 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

교통사고 심각도 예측 모형의 활용방안에 관한 연구 (서해안 고속도로를 중심으로) (A Study on the Application of Accident Severity Prediction Model)

  • 원민수;이겨라;오철;강경우
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.167-173
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    • 2009
  • 교통사고는 인간의 생명과 직결되는 문제이므로, 교통사고 예방 및 심각도 감소를 위한 연구는 매우 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 교통사고 심각도에 영향을 줄 수 있는 다양한 영향요소들을 고려하여 교통사고로 인한 피해를 최소화할 수 있는 대응책을 수립하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 2004~2006년 동안 서해안 고속도로에서 발생한 174개의 구간별 사고자료를 이용하여 사고 심각도 예측모형을 만들었다. 이렇게 분석된 모형을 이용하여 사고심각도에 영향을 미치는 주요요인을 찾고 이를 이용하여 교통사고로 인한 피해를 줄일 수 있는 다양한 방법들을 고려해 보았다. 분석결과 과속으로 인한 사고, 차량결함, 차대차 사고, 차대사람 사고, 교통량, 곡선반경 및 종단경사 변동계수에 의해 사고심각도가 정의되는 것을 알 수 있다. 이와 같은 사고심각도와 밀접한 관련이 있는 독립변수들을 대상으로 구간에 따른 각 영향의 정도를 그래프를 나타내 보았으며, 그 결과 심각한 사고를 유발하는 특정원인이 몇 가지 존재하며 이러한 특정원인 및 사고유형은 서해안 고속도로의 특정구간에서 주로 발생한다는 것을 알 수 있다. 이러한 결과들은 서해안 고속도로의 특정 구간에 속도제한 단속 카메라, 차내/외 경고정보제공등과 같은 선택적 교통정보 및 교통시설을 제공함으로써 사고를 예방하는 방법에 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

건설 보통인부의 안전재해 영향요인 및 재해강도 분석 (An Analysis on the Accident Influence Factor and Severity of Construction General Workers)

  • 신원상;손창백
    • 대한건축학회논문집:구조계
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    • 제34권3호
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2018
  • General workers who assist various technicians in different fields with their work across the whole construction sites without having a particular skill are at risk of the highest accident rate and their accident form becomes varied. Accordingly, this study was conducted to identify the relationship between form of safety accident and influence factor in general workers and analyze accident severity by influence factor. The followings are the results from this study. First, as a result of analyzing major form of accident and influence factors in general workers with network analysis methodology, nine forms of accident and seventeen influence factors were drawn. Second, it was found that in accident severity among general workers, collapsing, among various forms of accident, appeared the highest, followed by fall, electric shock, fire, hit by an object, bumped against, trip, scission getting cut chopped in order. Third, main points of special, concentrated, and permanent management were presented in order to reduce the safety accident in general workers effectively.

산업용 기계 및 기구 관련 재해강도 지표의 평가 (Evaluation of Severity Measures of Accidents Associated with Industrial Machines and Devices)

  • 최기흥
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2019
  • This study focuses on the evaluation of severity measures used for accidents associated with industrial machines and devices. In particular, duration of medical treatment, duration of work loss, number of deaths in an individual accident associated with industrial machines and devices are evaluated in various ways to assess the severity of the accident. The number of accidents with work loss of longer than 1 year as the severity measure and the number of accidents as the frequency measure appeared to be the most discriminating information and allow risk assessment based on these frequency and severity measures for grouping of industrial machines and devices. Results of such risk assessment further confirmed the re-classification of industrial machines and devices that are currently subject to safety certification (SC) and self-declaration of conformity (SDC) or selection of those machines and devices that are newly subject to SC and SDC.

구조방정식 모형을 이용한 주중과 주말의 고속도로 사고심각도 비교분석 (Analysis on Comparison of Highway Accident Severity between Weekday and Weekend using Structural Equation Model)

  • 배윤경;안선영;정진혁
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.2483-2491
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    • 2013
  • 교통사고를 감소시키고 안전성을 향상시키기 위해, 사고에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 분석하여 교통사고를 예측하는 모형은 지속적으로 개발되어 왔다. 교통사고 감소와 사고 사망자 감소에 대한 문제는 선진국과 후진국 모두 중요한 문제로서, 우리나라에서는 매해 교통사고 감소를 위한 정책 및 방안을 제시하고 있다. 주 5일제 시행과 여가활동에 대한 관심의 증가로 주중과 주말의 통행패턴은 다른 형태를 지니고 있으며, 교통사고의 특성도 마찬가지로 다르게 나타난다. 본 연구에서는 주중과 주말의 사고 심각도에 미치는 요인이 다름에 대하여 분석하였으며, 이는 고속도로에서 발생한 5년 동안의 사고자료를 구조방정식 모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 모형의 추정결과 주중 사고 심각도 모형은 도로 요인이 사고 심각도에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 주말 사고 심각도 모형은 운전자 요인이 사고 심각도에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나 주중과 주말 사고의 원인 차이를 나타냈다.

국도상 교통사고 심각도에 영향을 미치는 횡단구성 요소 분석 (Analysis of Road Cross Section Component Affecting Traffic Accident Severity on National Highway)

  • 박재홍;윤덕근
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.143-149
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    • 2017
  • According to traffic accidents statistics, the number of fatalities, injuries and the rate of increase of traffic accidents have been decreasing over last 5-years. The fatality rate is 1.9 for total accidents but the fatality rate for single vehicle accidents shows a 7.9, which is 4 times greater than the average for all accidents. Single vehicle accidents, usually occur as a vehicle impacts a fixed objects on the roadside as the vehicle runs-off from the road. However, few researches have been conducted considering the accident severity of single vehicle accidents which impact to the fixed objects on the road. The single vehicle accident is directly related to the composition of road cross section, (since it is the required the minimum width of a road for all run-off-the-road vehicles to recover or come to a safe stop). Therefore, this study analyzes the influence of road cross section on traffic accidents to find out the severity of single vehicle accident. To analyze the road elements which are related to the accident severity, the Ordered Probit Model was used. As variables, the element of road cross section such as the radius(m), vertical curve(%), cross sectional grade(%), road width(m). number of climbing lane, median, and curb, were used (as was the 3-years of accidents data). This study found out that cross slope(%), road width(m), and the number of climbing lane are related to the severity of accident. The result of this study could be expected to improve the road safety and to be used as the base data for further road safety research.