• 대한교통학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.17-24
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• 2008

교통사고를 감소시키고 안전성을 향상시키기 위해, 사고에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 분석하여 교통사고를 예측하는 모형은 지속적으로 개발되어 왔다. 우리나라의 고속국도 총연장은 약 3,000km에 이르며, 이는 전 세계에서 10위 안에 드는 수치이다. 그러나 고속국도 1km당 사고 건수는 다른 나라들에 비하여 현격히 높은 실정인데, 1980년대 이래로 빠르게 증가한 교통수요와 교통관련 인프라의 규모가 이러한 높은 사고율에 영향을 미친 것으로 보인다. 사고율과 함께 중요하게 인식되는 지표는 사고의 심각도이며, 사고 심각도는 도로의 기하구조나 운전자 행태, 차종, 날씨 등 많은 요인들에 의해 직 간접적인 영향을 받을 것으로 판단된다. 이 밖에도 여러 요인들이 복합적으로 작용하여 사고를 일으키고, 사고의 심각도에 영향을 미칠 것으로 보인다. 구조방정식(Structural Equations Model)은 이처럼 여러 가지 변수들 간의 복잡한 관계를 규명하는데 적합한 모형으로, 본 연구에서는 사고 심각도에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 크게 '도로 요인' 및 '운전자 요인', '환경 요인' 등으로 구분하고, 총 2,880개의 사고데이터를 이용하여 구조방정식 모형을 구축, 각각의 변수들이 사고 심각도에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 도로 및 환경 요인은 통계적으로 유의한 수준에서 사고심각도와 강한 관계를 가지는 것으로 나타났다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.367-391
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• 2013

후쿠시마원자력발전소의 사고를 계기로 원전의 안전대책비용, 사고위험대응비용과 같은 외부비용들의 존재가 부각되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 원전의 외부비용들 중에서 추가안전대책비용과 사고위험대응비용을 추정하고, 이를 발전원가 및 전기요금에 반영하여 변화정도를 살폈다. 원전의 추가안전대책비용은 70~90%의 이용률에서 0.53원/kWh~0.80원/kWh으로 원전의 발전원가에 큰 영향을 미치지는 않는다. 사고위험대응비용은 원전사고피해규모별, 사고발생빈도별, 이용률별로 0.0025원/kWh~26.4188원/kWh로 추정되었다. 사고위험대응비용을 포함시키면 원전발전원가는 47.58원/kWh~85.92원/kWh가 된다. 2011년을 기준으로 사고위험대응비용을 내부화한 경우의 전기요금의 증가율은 70~90%의 이용률에서 0.001%~10.0563% 로 추정되었다. 본 연구는 원전의 외부비용을 내부화하는 방법으로서 외부비용을 발전원가에 포함하여 전기요금에 반영하였다. 본 연구는 지금까지 우리나라에 논의되지 않았던 원전 외부비용을 내부화하는 방법의 하나가 될 것이다.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.51-71
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• 1997

As passenger ship accidents so frequently have occurred, crisis consciousness is highly aroused in Korean society. Although bombastic policy guidlines were suggested in accordance with every passenger ship accident, there remains a still high possibility of such an accident reoccurring because passenger ship accidents occur from the perspective of non-compliance. The research objective of this study is to government's safety regulatory policies. Data for the analysis was collected from literature review. A Case study related to passenger ship accident is adopted for the analysis. The research methods utilized in this study consist of extensive quantitative analysis of 138 passenger ship accidents which had happened over last 10 years from 1984 to 1993 in Korea and a qualitative analysis of the passenger ship accident of the Seohae Ferry in October 1993. The results of the quantitive analysis on the 138 passenger ship accidents are as follows; Seeing the accidents yearly, the accidents which occurred by policy non-compliance are still exist, only somewhat reduced as years gone by. Seeing the accidents from the perspective of types of accident, fire accidents and death and injury accidents had more non-compliance factors than contact accidents and one-side collision accidents, etc. had. Seeing the accidents from the perspectives of types of passenger ship, large ships like car ferries and general passenger ship accidents had more non-compliance factors than any other kinds of ships had. Seeing the accidents from the perspectives of tons of passenger ships, large ships weighing more than 1, 000 tons and small ships weighing less than 50tons contained a lots of non-compliance factors. The results of the qualitative analysis of the passenger ship accident of the Seohae Ferry in Octovber 1993 are as follows; From the viewpoint of the human factor, there were non-compliance to the recruiting of required number of qualified crew members and non-compliance to the rule which prohibited them from leaving port in bad weather and high wave conditions. From the viewpoint of the ship factor, there were defects in the ship. So we might say that there was non-compliance which was aroused from the lacks of technical skills. From the viewpoint of the administrative factor, there were many non-compliance factors such as sailor education, shipping management, rescue, safety equipment. From the viewpoint of the passenger factor, there were passengers' threats which compelled the crews to leave the port under bad weather conditions. In conclusion, the principal non-compliances factors are passenger ship company did not follow safety rules such as shipping the permitted number of passengers, loading permitted tons of freight and fastening freights properly and recruiting required number of qualified crew. In order to reduce accidents, firstly we should find out the causes which play key roles in passenger ship companies' non-compliance to the government's safety regulations. Secondly we should tackle the causes.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.94-103
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• 2015

This study analyzes the influence factors on elderly pedestrian accident. Elderly people are easy to be badly injured by car accidents compared to younger people. Therefore, various plans and measures are required to protect elderly pedestrian from accidents. However, pedestrian accidents studies only focused on microscopic factors such as attribute of driver, pedestrian, road design. In order to prevent pedestrian accident and reduce the severity of the accident, not only microscopic factors but macroscopic variables such as urban planning and facility should be considered. In this regard, this study develops an ordered probit model introduced the characteristics of urban facility which were not considered in the previous studies. The result shows that there is higher level of accident severity in such areas as large commercial area, well-developed area with transportation infrastructure service and non-pedestrian safety zone. Thus, various and appropriate countermeasures should be prepared in order that pedestrian accident can be prevented in the areas mentioned above. In addition to the aforementioned variables, it is revealed that other variables including vehicle speed, gender and age of pedestrian, weather condition, type of vehicle, etc. partly affect the severity of pedestrian accident.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.40-46
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• 2013

In the chemical process industries, accidents have a high potential and large effects on catastrophic results. Therefore the safety management for accident prevention plays a crucial role to guarantee the process safety. For these reasons, many systematic methods for safety management system have been widely employed in the fields of chemical processes. PSM (Process safety management) is one of most representative methods. The audit system, which is one of PSM system components, evaluates the performance of PMS system. However, most existing safety audit systems are not systematic and these are performed based on knowledges and experiences of various specialist. Moreover, the safety audit is only performed based on each independent technical component. So, the results of safety audit are not a quantitative index but only a series of commentaries. Finally, it is very difficult to obtain the comparison with other plants or industries. In this study, the novel systematic method and index-based accident database of auditing safety management systems for quantitative assessment are proposed. First, the elements of safety audit replace technical methods to categories of accident database. The F-N curve of each category for accident database is employed to derive the index for quantitative assessment. The Accidental Factor Risk Index (AFRI) is suggested for evaluating the effect of each element in accident database and safety audit system. The safety audit can be modified according to the proposed index.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.97-104
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• 2010

최근 고속도로 건설공사는 대형화, 복잡화, 첨단화로 인한 작업환경 및 작업의 종류도 다양화 되고 있다. 공사 장비 또한 대형화와 고소작업의 증가에 따라 안전사고가 증가하고 있어 건설재해를 감소시키려는 노력이 요구된다. 그러나 구체적이고 과학적 방법을 사용한 기술적 안전관리 대처 수단이 미비하다. 사고 예방을 위해서 안전사고 유형 및 사고요인 등을 통계적인 방법으로 분석하여 각 변수들에 대한 안전관리에 적용할 수 있는 방안이 구체적으로 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 고속도로 건설공사의 12년간 안전사고에 대한 조사를 실시하여 사고발생요인들에 따라 사고유형 및 환산재해자수에 대한 특성을 분석하기 위한 목적으로 실증분석을 하였다. 연구결과 첫째, 사고요인별 사고유형과의 유의미한 차이를 검정한 결과 사고 발생 원인 및 사고발생 높이가 유의한 차이가 나타났다. 둘째, 기간별요인 중에 사고발생시간이 환산재해자수와의 유의한 차이가 나타났다. 작업여건별 요인 중에는 사고발생원인, 사고발생높이, 사고발생유형이 환산재해자수와의 유의한 차이가 나타났다. 이러한 요인들과 변수들의 특징을 분석하여 제시한 결과는 향후 안전관리 대책 수립에 중요한 의미가 있다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.121-129
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• 2012

PURPOSES : Traffic accidents at intersections have been increased annually so that it is required to examine the causations to reduce the accidents. However, the current existing accident models were developed mainly with non-linear regression models such as Poisson methods. These non-linear regression methods lack to reveal complicated causations for traffic accidents, though they are right choices to study randomness and non-linearity of accidents. Therefore, to reveal the complicated causations of traffic accidents, this study used structural equation methods(SEM). METHODS : SEM used in this study is a statistical technique for estimating causal relations using a combination of statistical data and qualitative causal assumptions. SEM allow exploratory modeling, meaning they are suited to theory development. The method is tested against the obtained measurement data to determine how well the model fits the data. Among the strengths of SEM is the ability to construct latent variables: variables which are not measured directly, but are estimated in the model from several measured variables. This allows the modeler to explicitly capture the unreliability of measurement in the model, which allows the structural relations between latent variables to be accurately estimated. RESULTS : The study results showed that causal factors could be grouped into 3. Factor 1 includes traffic variables, and Factor 2 contains turning traffic variables. Factor 3 consists of other road element variables such as speed limits or signal cycles. CONCLUSIONS : Non-linear regression models can be used to develop accident predictions models. However, they lack to estimate causal factors, because they select only few significant variables to raise the accuracy of the model performance. Compared to the regressions, SEM has merits to estimate causal factors affecting accidents, because it allows the structural relations between latent variables. Therefore, this study used SEM to estimate causal factors affecting accident at urban signalized intersections.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.153-160
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• 1998

본 연구에서는 가압열충격 사고로 소형 냉각재 상실사고를 가정하여 냉각재의 온도와 압력의 이력으로 부터 용기 벽의 온도분포를 구하고, 이로 부터 열응력과 압응력을 해석적으로 구하였다. 또 균열 선단에서의 응력강도계수와 파괴인성치를 ASME코드의 방법을 이용하여 구하였고, 이들을 시간에 따라 비교하여 균열의 진전여부를 평가하였다. 원자로 용기 벽에 존재하는 여러 형태의 균열이 견딜 수 있는 최대 기준무연성천이온도를 결정하였으며 평가 결과에 대하여 고찰하였다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.17-26
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• 2006

Basis frame-work's base in a semiconductor industry have gas, chemical, electricity and various facilities in bring to it. That it is a foundation by fire, power failure, blast, spill of toxicant huge by large size accident human and physical loss and damage because it can bring this efficient, connect with each kind mechanical, physical thing to prevent usefully need that control finding achievement factor of human factor of human action. Large size accident in a semiconductor industry to machine and human and it is involved that present, in system by safety interlock defect of machine is conclusion for error of behaviour. What is not construing in this study, do safety in a semiconductor industry to do improvement. Control human error analyzes in human control with and considers mechanical element and several elements. Also, apply achievement factor using O'conner Model by control method of human error. In analyze by failure mode effect using actuality example.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2012년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.115-116
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• 2012

The number of safety accidents of the construction industry is higher than other industries. To prevent the accidents from hazard factor, the employees are variously trained in avoiding an accident. Also many studies have been conducted to reduced the safety accident. But most of these studies are limited to institutional complements. This study proposes safety management improvement plan of safety management through case studies.