• Title/Summary/Keyword: Acceptance Probability

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Effects of Calibration Rounds on the Statistical Distribution of Muzzle Velocity in Acceptance Test of Propelling Charge (추진장약 수락시험시 포구속도 확률분포에 기준탄이 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Sung-Ho;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.204-212
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of calibration rounds on the statistical distribution of the muzzle velocity in acceptance test of propelling charge. It is shown that the normal distribution fits best among statistical distributions from goodness-of fit test. The 3p-Weibull distribution is also acceptable because the shape of the probability density function curve is similar to that of normal distribution and it also has near zero skewness value. Muzzle velocities of test rounds uncompensated by calibration rounds showed high variation and had comparatively higher skewness. Because the skewness of normal distribution is defined to be zero, calibration rounds make the normality of data higher.

Calibration System Suitability Evaluation and Test Limits Determination Method through Factor Analysis of Uncertainty (불확도 요인 분석을 통한 교정 시스템 적합성 평가 및 시험기준 결정 방안)

  • Kim, Hong-Tark;Kim, Boo-Il
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1139-1144
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    • 2019
  • A calibration system for diagnosing and confirming the performance of precision measuring instruments minimizes the risk of misjudgment of calibration resulted by complying with international standard requirements in order to ensure the reliability of calibration results. This paper uses a proposed calibration system suitability assessment and a guard-band technique through an analysis of uncertainty factors when it is impossible to acquire and operate high-performance equipment at a calibration laboratory, and proposes an optimized test limit output model substituting performance standards. The proposed method provides an optimized test standard to meet the quantitative evaluation criteria of the calibration system and the probability of false acceptance risk required by international standards.

A Load-Balancing Approach Using an Improved Simulated Annealing Algorithm

  • Hanine, Mohamed;Benlahmar, El-Habib
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.132-144
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    • 2020
  • Cloud computing is an emerging technology based on the concept of enabling data access from anywhere, at any time, from any platform. The exponential growth of cloud users has resulted in the emergence of multiple issues, such as the workload imbalance between the virtual machines (VMs) of data centers in a cloud environment greatly impacting its overall performance. Our axis of research is the load balancing of a data center's VMs. It aims at reducing the degree of a load's imbalance between those VMs so that a better resource utilization will be provided, thus ensuring a greater quality of service. Our article focuses on two phases to balance the workload between the VMs. The first step will be the determination of the threshold of each VM before it can be considered overloaded. The second step will be a task allocation to the VMs by relying on an improved and faster version of the meta-heuristic "simulated annealing (SA)". We mainly focused on the acceptance probability of the SA, as, by modifying the content of the acceptance probability, we could ensure that the SA was able to offer a smart task distribution between the VMs in fewer loops than a classical usage of the SA.

A New Product Risk Model for the Electric Vehicle Industry in South Korea

  • CHU, Wujin;HONG, Yong-pyo;PARK, Wonkoo;IM, Meeja;SONG, Mee Ryoung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study examined a comprehensive model for assessing the success probability of electric vehicle (EV) commercialization in the Korean market. The study identified three risks associated with successful commercialization which were technology, social, policy, environmental, and consumer risk. Research design, methodology: The assessment of the riskiness was represented by a Bayes belief network, where the probability of success at each stage is conditioned on the outcome of the preceding stage. Probability of success in each stage is either dependent on input (i.e., investment) or external factors (i.e., air quality). Initial input stages were defined as the levels of investment in product R&D, battery technology, production facilities and battery charging facilities. Results: Reasonable levels of investment were obtained by expert opinion from industry experts. Also, a survey was carried out with 78 experts consisting of automaker engineers, managers working at EV parts manufacturers, and automobile industry researchers in government think tanks to obtain the conditional probability distributions. Conclusion: The output of the model was the likelihood of success - expressed as the probability of market acceptance - that depended on the various input values. A model is a useful tool for understanding the EV industry as a whole and explaining the likely ramifications of different investment levels.

Ship Collision Risk Analysis of Bridge Piers (선박충돌로 인한 교각의 위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Seong-Lo;Bae, Yong-Gwi
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2005
  • An analysis of the annual frequency of collapse(AF) is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. From this analysis, the impact lateral resistance can be determined for each pier. The bridge pier impact resistance is selected using a probability-based analysis procedure in which the predicted annual frequency of bridge collapse, AF, from the ship collision risk assessment is compared to an acceptance criterion. The analysis procedure is an iterative process in which a trial impact resistance is selected for a bridge component and a computed AF is compared to the acceptance criterion, and revisions to the analysis variables are made as necessary to achieve compliance. The distribution of the AF acceptance criterion among the exposed piers is generally based on the designer's judgment. In this study, the acceptance criterion is allocated to each pier using allocation weights based on the previous predictions.

Design Guideline Development for Managed Lane Access Spacing Using Gap Acceptance Theory (간격수락 이론을 이용한 다인승전용차로 진.출입을 위한 도로 디자인 지침정립)

  • Yang, Cheol-Su;Mattingly, Stephen P.;Kim, Hyeon-Ung;Gwon, Yong-Jang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2010
  • The principal objective of this paper is to develop road design guidelines, especially for managed lane access spacing between the expressway on-ramp (or off-ramp) and managed lane access point. Managed lanes are typically located in the expressway median and are accessed by weaving across the mainlines. The high level of lane-changing activity present in weaving areas affects capacity significantly. One promising tool for the analysis of lane-changing activity is "gap acceptance theory." This paper estimates the capacity of weaving areas based on the estimated degree of traffic turbulence using gap acceptance theory. The degree of traffic turbulence is represented by a function of the probability that lane-changing vehicles can complete their maneuvers successfully in a given weaving distance. In developing road design guidelines based on the developed gap acceptance model, the minimum managed lane access spacing is determined where the capacity with respect to the managed lane access spacing becomes stable.

Correlation Test by Reduced-Spread of Fuzzy Variance

  • Kang, Man-Ki
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2012
  • We propose some properties for a fuzzy correlation test by reduced-spread fuzzy variance for sample fuzzy data. First, we define the condition of fuzzy data for repeatedly observed data or that which includes error term data. By using the average of spreads for fuzzy numbers, we reduce the spread of fuzzy variance and define the agreement index for the degree of acceptance and rejection. Given a non-normal random fuzzy sample, we have bivariate normal distribution by apply Box-Cox power fuzzy transformation and test the fuzzy correlation for independence between the variables provided by the agreement index.

Design Strength of Bridge Piers against Ship Collision (교각의 선박충돌 설계강도)

  • Lee Seong-Lo;Bae Yong-Gwi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.659-662
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    • 2004
  • An analysis of the AF is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. From this analysis, the impact lateral resistance can be determined for each pier. The bridge pier impact resistance is selected using a probability-based analysis procedure in which the predicted AF, from the ship collision risk assessment is compared to an acceptance criterion. In this study, the acceptance criterion is allocated to each pier using allocation weights based on the previous predictions. To determine the design impact lateral resistance of bridge components such pylon and pier, the numerical analysis is performed iteratively with the analysis variable of impact resistance ratio of pylon to pier. The design impact lateral resistance can vary greatly among the components of the same bridge, depending upon the waterway geometry, available water depth, bridge geometry, and vessel traffic characteristics.

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Sensitivity Analyses for Failure Probabilities of the OPR1000 Reactor Vessel Under Pressurized Thermal Shock (가압열충격에 의한 OPR1000 원자로용기의 파손확률 민감도 해석)

  • Oh, Changsik;Jhung, Myung Jo;Choi, Youngin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.40-49
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, failure probabilities of the OPR1000 reactor vessel under pressurized thermal shock (PTS) were estimated using the probabilistic fracture mechanics code, R-PIE. Input variables of initial crack distribution, crack size, copper contents, and upper shelf toughness were selected for the sensitivity analyses. A wide range of the input data were considered. Through-wall cracking frequencies determined by the product of the vessel failure probability and the corresponding occurrence frequency of the transient were also compared to the acceptance criterion. The results showed that transient history had the most significant impact on the vessel failure probability. Moreover, conservative assumptions resulted in extremely high through-wall cracking frequencies.

Fuzzy Binomial Proportion Test by Agreement Index (동의지수에 의한 퍼지 이항비률 검정)

  • Kang, Man-Ki;Park, Young-Rye
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.19-24
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    • 2009
  • We propose some properties for fuzzy binomial proportion test by agreement index. First we define fuzzy probability space and fuzzy type I error and type II error for the fuzzy probability of the two type errors. Also, we show that a fuzzy power function of performance for a fuzzy hypothesis test and drawing conclusions from the test.