• Title/Summary/Keyword: Acceptance Probability

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Development of Gap Acceptance Models for Permitted Left Turn Intersections (비보호좌회전에서의 간격수락 행태모형 개발)

  • Lee, Chung Won;Lee, Dong Min;Hwang, Soon Cheon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : Permitted left turn is a turning maneuver in which a vehicle turns left using a gap between oncoming vehicles, called gap acceptance, and it enables for more efficient traffic operation at intersections. In Korea, the permitted left turn has not been a common maneuver at signalized or un-signalized intersections. However, many experts and the Police Agency tried to apply this effective turning maneuver at intersections in Korea since 2010. Though the investigation of gap acceptance is significantly important in understanding a driver's behavior at intersections, there have not been many studies about this topic, specifically a study to develop probability models of gap acceptance behavior. METHODS : In this study, the probability model of gap acceptance behavior for a permitted left turn was developed based on observational field studies. To develop the model, seven variables were analyzed including gap, waiting time, traffic volume, conflict-flow vehicle type, left-turning vehicle type, the number of lane, and time. RESULTS : In the final model, gap and left-turning vehicle type were found to be significant influencing factors. CONCLUSIONS : Through this model development, it was concluded that as the gap size increased, the probability of gap acceptance was higher. Moreover, when a left-turning vehicle was a passenger car, the probability of gap acceptance was higher than compared to large size buses or freight cars.

Rejection Degree by Fuzzy Significance Probability

  • Choi, Gyu-Tag;Park, Il-Soo;Nam, Hyun-Woo;Moon, Jong-Choon
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.135-139
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    • 2014
  • We propose some properties for fuzzy hypothesis test by fuzzy significance probability. First, we define fuzzy number data and fuzzy significance probability for repeatedly observed data with alternated error term. By the agreement index, we compare fuzzy significance probability with significance level and drawing conclusions the degree of acceptance and rejection by agreement index.

Development of Gap Acceptance Models for Permitted Left Turn Intersections during Rainfall (우천시 비보호좌회전에서의 간격수락 행태모형 개발)

  • Hwang, Soon Cheon;Lee, Chungwon;Lee, Dong Min
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSES : A complete signal system is not always the best solution for improving traffic operation efficiency at intersections. An alternative solution is to use a Protected Permitted Left Turn (PPLT) operation method. However, the PPLT method needs to be developed after a detailed study of driving tendencies, most notably the gap acceptance behavior, for successful implementation. In this study, the gap acceptance behavior was investigated under various variables and weather conditions, especially under rain, and the results were compared to the case of normal weather. The results of this study will be helpful in introducing the PPLT method, and are important considering the tendency of attempting unprotected left turns that is extremely common in Korean drivers. METHODS : Data was obtained by analyzing traffic footage at four intersections on a day when the precipitation was greater than 5 mm/h. The collected data was classified into seven variables for statistical analysis. Finally, we used logistic regression analysis to develop a probability distribution model. RESULTS : Gap, traffic volume, and the number of conflicting lanes were factors affecting the gap acceptance behavior of unprotected left turns under rainy conditions. CONCLUSIONS : The probability of attempting unprotected left turns is higher for larger gaps. On the other hand, the probability of attempting unprotected left turns decreases with an increase in the traffic volume. Finally, an increase in the number of conflict lanes leads to a decrease in the probability of attempting unprotected left turns.

A Study on the Comparison of the Probability of Acceptance through Simulation and Approximation Methods for a Statistically Dependent Production Process (종속 품질 생산 공정에서 시뮬레이션과 근사적 방법을 통한 합격 확률의 비교에 관한 연구)

  • 유정상;황의철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.15 no.26
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    • pp.189-199
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    • 1992
  • Standard acceptance sampling plans models the production process as a sequence of independent identically distributed Beruoulli random variables. However, the quality of items sampled sequentially from an ongoing production process often exhibits statistical dependency that is not accounted for in standard acceptance sampling plans. In this paper, a dependent production process is modelled as an ARMA process and as a two-state Markov chain. A simulation study of each is performed. A comparison of the probability of acceptance is done for the simulation method and for the approximation method.

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Machine Quality Assurance and TPM in FA System (FA 시스템에서의 품질보전과 TPM)

  • 유정상;황의철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.15 no.25
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 1992
  • Standard acceptance sampling plans models the production pricess as a sequence of independent identically distributed Beruoulli random variables. However, the quality of items sampled sequentially from an ongoing production process of ten exhibits statistical dependency that is not accounted for in standard acceptance sampling plans. In this paper, a dependent production process is modelled as an ARMA process and as a two-state Markov chain. A simulation study of each is performed. A comparison of the probability of acceptance is done for the simulation method and for the approximation method.

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Investigation of Microbial Contamination and Working Environment in University Foodservices (대학급식소 작업시설과 환경의 미생물 오염도 분석 및 작업환경 실태조사)

  • Park, Soon-Hee;Moon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.180-191
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to identity the probability of cross-contamination from the environment. For this, we examined foodservices at 20 universities/colleges for microbiological analysis of their working facilities and environment as well as their preventive equipment against cross-contamination. Seventy percent of the 20 foodservices were found to maintain one unified working area, which suggests high probability of contamination of food/utensils/equipment in the cooking area by pre-preparation or dish washing. According to the microbiological analysis, the hygiene acceptance ratio of working facilities in the clean zone was 70%, which was higher than the average 45% hygiene acceptance ratio of working facilities in the contamination operating zone. There was a significant difference in the total plate count (P<0.001) and coliform count (P<0.01), which demonstrates that work tables in the clean zone were in a good state compared to those in the contamination operating zone. In the contamination operating zone, refrigerator shelves had a high probability of cross-contamination. Regarding the floor surface and airborne microbes, cooking areas which should be maintained as clean zones had higher cross-contamination probability than those in the contamination operating zone. So corrective actions such as cleaning and sanitizing, keeping dry floors, lowered temperature and humidity, shoe disinfecting facilities, and checking concentrations, are necessary to manage floor surfaces and airborne microbes in the cooking area.

Stochastically Dependent Sequential Acceptance Sampling Plans

  • Kim, Won-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.22-38
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    • 1997
  • In a traditional sequential acceptance sampling plan, it is assumed that the sampled items are independent each other. In this paper, stochastically dependent sequential acceptance sampling plans are dealt when there exists dependency between sampled items. Monte-Calro algorithm is used to find the acceptance and rejection probabilities of a lot. The number of defectives for the test to be accepted and rejected in probability ratio sequential test can be found by using these probabilities. The formula for measures of performance of these sampling plans is developed. Type I and II error probabilities are estimated by simulation. This research can be a, pp.ied to sequential sampling procedures in place of control charts where there is a recognized and necessary dependency during the production processes. Also, dependent multiple acceptance sampling plans can be derived by extending this sequential sampling procedure. As a numerical example, a Markov dependent process model is given, and the characteristics of the sampling plans are examined according to the change of the dependency factor.

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Design and Estimation of Multiple Acceptance Sampling Plans for Stochastically Dependent Nonstationary Processes (확률적으로 종속적인 비평형 다단계 샘플링검사법의 설계 및 평가)

  • Kim, Won-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.8-20
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, a design and estimation procedure for the stochastically dependent nonstationary multiple acceptance sampling plans is developed. At first, the rough-cut acceptance and rejection numbers are given as an initial solution from the corresponding sequential sampling plan. A Monte-Carlo algorithm is used to find the acceptance and rejection probabilities of a lot. The conditional probability formula for a sample path is found. The acceptance and rejection probabilities are found when a decision boundary is given. Several decision criteria and the design procedure to select optimal plans are suggested. The formula for measuring performance of these sampling plans is developed. Type I and II error probabilities are also estimated. As a special case, by setting the stage size as 1 in a dependent sampling plan, a sequential sampling plan satisfying type I and II error probabilities is more accurate and a smaller average sample number can be found. In a numerical example, a Polya dependent process is examined. The sampling performances are shown to compare the selection scheme and the effect of the change of the dependency factor.

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Uniform Fractional Band CAC Scheme for QoS Provisioning in Wireless Networks

  • Rahman, Md. Asadur;Chowdhury, Mostafa Zaman;Jang, Yeong Min
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.583-600
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    • 2015
  • Generally, the wireless network provides priority to handover calls instead of new calls to maintain its quality of service (QoS). Because of this QoS provisioning, a call admission control (CAC) scheme is essential for the suitable management of limited radio resources of wireless networks to uphold different factors, such as new call blocking probability, handover call dropping probability, channel utilization, etc. Designing an optimal CAC scheme is still a challenging task due to having a number of considerable factors, such as new call blocking probability, handover call dropping probability, channel utilization, traffic rate, etc. Among existing CAC schemes such as, fixed guard band (FGB), fractional guard channel (FGC), limited fractional channel (LFC), and Uniform Fractional Channel (UFC), the LFC scheme is optimal considering the new call blocking and handover call dropping probability. However, this scheme does not consider channel utilization. In this paper, a CAC scheme, which is termed by a uniform fractional band (UFB) to overcome the limitations of existing schemes, is proposed. This scheme is oriented by priority and non-priority guard channels with a set of fractional channels instead of fractionizing the total channels like FGC and UFC schemes. These fractional channels in the UFB scheme accept new calls with a predefined uniform acceptance factor and assist the network in utilizing more channels. The mathematical models, operational benefits, and the limitations of existing CAC schemes are also discussed. Subsequently, we prepared a comparative study between the existing and proposed scheme in terms of the aforementioned QoS related factors. The numerical results we have obtained so far show that the proposed UFB scheme is an optimal CAC scheme in terms of QoS and resource utilization as compared to the existing schemes.

Analyzing Public Preference for Community-Based Floating Photovoltaic Projects: A Discrete Choice Experiment Approach (주민참여형 수상태양광 발전사업에 대한 국민 선호도 분석: 선택실험법을 이용하여)

  • Hye Lee, Lee;JongRoul, Woo
    • Current Photovoltaic Research
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2022
  • The need for floating photovoltaic is being emphasized to expand renewable energy but low residents' acceptance is a major obstacle to the deployment of floating photovoltaic. Using the discrete choice experiment, this study analyzed the preferences for community-based floating photovoltaic projects and proposed a method to increase the residents' acceptance of floating photovoltaic projects. The estimates of the marginal willingness to accept (MWTA) of the distance, the coverage ratio, the landscape, the project owner (public institution), and the project owner (large company) are -0.69%p/km, 0.13%p/%p, -0.57%p, -2.95%p, -1.73%p, respectively. According to the result of simulation analysis, the residents' acceptance is significantly higher when the project is operated by a public institution, with a choice probability of 58%, than when the project is operated by a private company, with a choice probability of 29%, 12% for a large and small company, respectively. In addition, as a result of the analysis of the expected returns, the results show that the closer the distance from the residence to the power plant, the higher the expected return.