• Title/Summary/Keyword: ASPIC

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Comparison of models for estimating surplus productions and methods for estimating their parameters (잉여생산량을 추정하는 모델과 파라미터 추정방법의 비교)

  • Kwon, Youjung;Zhang, Chang Ik;Pyo, Hee Dong;Seo, Young Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.18-28
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    • 2013
  • It was compared the estimated parameters by the surplus production from three different models, i.e., three types (Schaefer, Gulland, and Schnute) of the traditional surplus production models, a stock production model incorporating covariates (ASPIC) model and a maximum entropy (ME) model. We also evaluated the performance of models in the estimation of their parameters. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of small yellow croaker (Pseudosciaena polyactis) in Korean waters ranged from 35,061 metric tons (mt) by Gulland model to 44,844mt by ME model, and fishing effort at MSY ($f_{MSY}$) ranged from 262,188hauls by Schnute model to 355,200hauls by ME model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) for small yellow croaker was obtained from the Gulland surplus production model, while the highest RMSE was from Schnute model. However, the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was from the ME model, but the ASPIC model yielded the lowest coefficient. On the other hand, the MSY of Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon) ranged from 16,880 mt by ASPIC model to 25,373mt by ME model, and $f_{MSY}$, from 94,580hauls by ASPIC model to 225,490hauls by Schnute model. In this case, both the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were obtained from the ME model, which showed relatively better fits of data to the model, indicating that the ME model is statistically more stable and robust than other models. Moreover, the ME model could provide additional ecologically useful parameters such as, biomass at MSY ($B_{MSY}$), carrying capacity of the population (K), catchability coefficient (q) and the intrinsic rate of population growth (r).

Evaluating the Economic Effects of Fishing Vessel Buyback Programs in Korea (우리나라 연근해어선 감척사업의 경제적 투자효과 분석)

  • Pyo, Hee-Dong
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2006
  • Fisheries buyback programs have been implemented from 1994 in Korea, and its scale is estimated to have a value of 930 billion won, which is compounded for eight years since 1994. The paper evaluates the programs' economic and financial viability, and predicts efficient ways about how much and how long to reduce fisheries vessels so as to pursue a target biomass at MSY, For the specific purpose of the paper, aggregate fisheries stock dynamics and catch functions are specified and estimated by yearly catch and fishing effort data from 1970 to 2001, using ASPIC model and Schaefer's logistic production model. Results show that the fisheries stock in Korea has steadily declined since 1970, and that Korean fisheries overexploitation has steadily increased. Using cost-benefit analysis method, the buyback program holds the economic and financial feasibility even if the scale of buyback programs is not sufficient to avoid the downward trend in fisheries stock and harvest. The potential investment scale is predicted in several alternative scenarios using the sensitivity analysis method. The results recommend the annual reduction of 46%, 12% or 20% for the next one year, five years or three years, respectively so that the target biomass at MSY may be reached in 25 years.

Progressive Process planning and die design to improve the formability in fine blanking of the lock plate in car seatbelt (자동차 좌석벨트의 록 플레이트의 정밀타발 시 성형성 향상을 위한 프로그레시브 공정 및 금형 설계)

  • Lee, Sang-Pill;Min, Byung-Hyun;Lee, Kwan-Young;Ko, Young-Jun;Kim, Chul;Kim, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2013
  • This study improves the formability in fine-blanking the lock plate of car seat belts using a low carbon steel(SM35C) plate. The optimal die design for the forming process is proposed using rules for process planning based on theories and field experiences. The optimal design is analyzed using commercial finite element software in order to solve the fracture problems in the extrusion process. Through the improved layout based on the FEM results, the fracture of the extruded part and the roll over problem are solved. Furthermore, it is demonstrated through the shown from experiments that the extruded part does not break in the modified die.

Comparing Surplus Production Models for Selecting Effective Stock Assessment Model: Analyzing Potential Yield of East Sea, Republic of Korea (효과적인 자원평가모델 선정을 위한 잉여생산량모델의 비교 분석: 동해 생태계의 잠재생산량 분석을 대상으로)

  • Choi, Min-Je;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.183-191
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    • 2019
  • This study sought to find which model is most appropriate for estimating potential yield in the East Sea, Republic of Korea. For comparison purposes, the Process-error model, ASPIC model, Maximum entropy model, Observation-error model, and Bayesian state-space model were applied using data from catch amounts and total efforts of the whole catchable fishes in the East Sea. Results showed that the Bayesian state-space model was estimated to be the most reliable among the models. Potential yield of catchable species was estimated to be 227,858 tons per year. In addition, it was analyzed that the amount of fishery resources in 2016 was about 63% of the biomass that enables a fish stock to deliver the maximum sustainable yield.

A study on the estimation of potential yield for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM) (통합생산량분석법에 의한 한국 서해 어획대상 잠재생산량 추정 연구)

  • KIM, Hyun-A;SEO, Yong-Il;CHA, Hyung Kee;KANG, Hee-Joong;ZHANG, Chang-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.38-53
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate potential yield (PY) for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM). HPM involves the use of surplus production models to apply input data of catch and standardized fishing efforts. HPM compared the estimated parameters of the surplus production from four different models: the Fox model, CYP model, ASPIC model, and maximum entropy model. The PY estimates ranged from 174,232 metric tons (mt) using the CYP model to 238,088 mt using the maximum entropy model. The highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$), the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), and the lowest Theil's U statistic (U) for Korean west coast fisheries were obtained from the maximum entropy model. The maximum entropy model showed relatively better fits of data, indicating that the maximum entropy model is statistically more stable and accurate than other models. The estimate from the maximum entropy model is regarded as a more reasonable estimate of PY. The quality of input data should be improved for the future study of PY to obtain more reliable estimates.

Characterization of ABS/PC/POE Thermoplastic Composites and Prediction of Mechanical Properties by Geometry Simulation (ABS/PC/POE 열가소성 복합재료의 특성평가 및 시뮬레이션을 통한 물리적 성능 예측 연구)

  • Yu, Seong-Hun;Lee, Jong-Hyuk;Yeo, Dong-Hyun;Shin, Yong-Ho;Park, Jong-Su;Sim, Jee-Hyun
    • Textile Coloration and Finishing
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2022
  • In this study, thermoplastic composites were manufactured using ABS(acrylonitrile butadiene styrene), PC(polycarbonate), and POE(polyolefin elastomer), which are thermoplastic plastics. Twin screw extruder and injection molding were used to manufacture thermoplastic composites. When the ABS/PC/POE thermoplastic composite material was manufactured, the POE mass fraction was set to 1 to 5 wt.%, and the thermal and mechanical properties according to the POE mass fraction were analyzed. Based on the physical properties of ABS/PC/POE, a 3D model in the form of an e-bike frame was created. After setting the boundary conditions, when an external load is applied, geometry simulation was performed to predict product performance. The ABS/PC/POE thermoplastic composite material exhibited the best physical properties when the mass fraction of POE was 3 wt.%. In the simulation results for the physical properties of the 3D model in the form of an e-bike frame, the best physical properties were shown when the mass fraction of POE was 2 ~ 3 wt.%. As a result, the manufacturing conditions for ABS/PC/POE thermoplastic composite materials were set, and research was conducted to reduce product development costs and development time.