• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.44-50
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• 2008

Focusing on the exponential smoothing method equivalent to (1, 1) order ARMA model equation, a new method of estimating smoothing constant using exponential smoothing method is proposed. This study goes beyond the usual method of arbitrarily selecting a smoothing constant. First, an estimation of the ARMA model parameter was made and then, the smoothing constants. The empirical example shows that the theoretical solution satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. The new method was also applied to the stock market price of electrical machinery industry (6 major companies in Japan) and forecasting was accomplished. Comparing the results of the two methods, the new method appears to be better than the ARIMA model. The result of the new method is apparently good in 4 company data and is nearly the same in 2 company data. The example provided shows that the new method is much simpler to handle than ARIMA model. Therefore, the proposed method would be better in these general cases. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.25 no.12
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• pp.73-82
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• 2020

Most process date such as semiconductor and petrochemical processes, autocorrelation often exists between observed data, but when the existing SPC(Statistical process control) is applied to these processes, it is not possible to effectively detect the average change of the process. In this paper, when the average change of a certain size occurs in the process data following a specific time series model, the average of the residuals changes according to the passage of time, and the change pattern of the average is introduced around the ARMA(1,1) process. Based on this result, the reference value required in the design process of the CUSUM (Cumulative sum) control chart is appropriately considered by considering the type of the time series model of the process data of the CUSUM control chart that can detect small mean changes in the process and the width of the process mean change of interest. It was confirmed through simulation that it should be selected and used.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.34-49
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• 1984

The stability of machine tool systems is analyzed by considering the machining process as a stochastic process without decomposing into machine tool structural dynamics and cutting processes. In doing so the time series analysis technique developed by Wu and Pandit is applied systematically to the relative vibration between cutting tool and work- piece measured under actual working conditions. Various characteristic properties derived from the fitted ARMA(Autoregressive Moving Average) Models and those from raw data directly are investigated in relation with the system stability. Both damping ratio and absolute value of the characteristic roots of the AR part of the most significant dynamic mode are preferred as stability indicating factors to the other pro-perties such as theoretical variance .gamma. (o) or absolute power of the most dominant dynamic mode. Maximum aplitude during a certain interval and variance estimated from raw data are shown to be very sensi- tive to the type of the signal and the location of measurement point although they can be obtained rather easily. The relative vibration signal is also analyzed by FFT(Fast Fourier Transform) Analyzer for the purpose of comparison with the spectrums derived from the fitted ARMA models.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.267-277
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• 2016

This paper considers we consider the estimation of copula parameters based on residuals in stochastic regression models. We prove that a semiparametric estimator using residual empirical distributions is consistent under some conditions and apply the results to the copula-ARMA model. We provide simulation results for illustration.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.86-94
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• 2002

The initial alignment of inertial platform for navigation system was considered. An adaptive filtering technique is developed for the system with unknown and varying sway disturbance. It is assumed that the random sway motion is the second order ARMA(Auto Regressive Moving Average) model and performed parameter identification for unknown parameters. Designed adaptive filter contain both a Kalman filter and a self-tuning filter. This filtering system can automatically adapt to varying environmental conditions. To verify the robustness of the filtering system, the computer simulation was performed with unknown and varying sway disturbance.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-11
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• 1980

For an ordinary engineer or researcher there are too diversified branches or even disciplines which have their own jargon to complicate an easy access, Nevertheless in many cases an isomorphism or even identity of notions exist to escape our grasp when expressed in different discipline or context, In this paper the masterwork of Box and Jenkins is introduced to accustom a few terms of statisticiens, to be followed by the technique of smoothing filtering of Wiener and Kalman - Bucy. The advantages of a transform (for example Hadamard) technique are explaned as well as authors personal philosophical views.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.183-193
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• 1994

The dynamic equation of a flexible robot manipulator is formulated by the assumed-mode method and the Lagrange equation. The controller is designed for a flexible robot manipulator including a joint actuator. The controller consists of a parmaeter estimator and the adaptive controller. A parameter estimator evaluates ARMA model`s parameter using RLS algorithm. An adaptive controller is designed based on a reference model and a minimum prediction error controller.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.83-91
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• 1990

An adaptive observer which is applicable to discrete linear time invariant systems of ARMA type in the presence of noise is proposed. It first estimates the system parameters of the MA type by applying only the system input to the observer. Then it estimates the output which corresponds to the output of the system without any noise. This is a special case of Suzuki's adaptive observer. This estimated output is applied to Suzuki's adaptive observer to estimate the system parameters of ARMA type and the states. The proposed method can make the estimate errors of the system parameters sufficiently small even in the presence of noise in the system. It can also make the estimate errors of the states of the system sufficiently small when there is no process noise. These properties of the proposed adaptive observer is certified by computer simulation.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.65-72
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• 2003

Internet roundtrip delay/time (RTT) prediction plays an important role in detecting packet losses in reliable transport protocols for traditional web applications and determining proper transmission rates in many rate-based TCP-friendly protocols for Internet-based real-time applications. The widely adopted autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) model with fixed-parameters is shown to be insufficient for all scenarios due to its intrinsic limitation that it filters out all high-frequency components of RTT dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a novel parameter-varying RTT model for Internet roundtrip time prediction based on the information theory and the maximum entropy principle (MEP). Since the coefficients of the proposed RTT model are updated dynamically, the model is adaptive and it tracks RTT dynamics rapidly. The results of our experiments show that the MEP algorithm works better than the ARMA method in both RTT prediction and RTO estimation.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.165-187
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• 1998

Shin and Sarkar (1993, 1994) studied the problem of testing for a unit root in an AR(p) signal observed with MA(q) noise when the MA parameters are known. In this paper we consider the case when the MA parameters are unknown and to be estimated. Test statistics are defined using unit root parameter estimates based on three different estimation methods of Hannan and Rissanen (1982), Kohn (1979) and Shin and Sarkar (1995). An AR(p) process contaminated by MA(q) noise is a .estricted ARMA model, for which Shin and Sarkar (1995) derived an easy-to-compute Newton- Raphson estimator The two-stage estimation p.ocedu.e of Hannan and Rissanen (1982) is used to compute initial parameter estimates in implementing the iterative estimation methods of both Shin and Sarkar (1995) and Kohn (1979). In a simulation study we compare the relative performance of these unit root tests with respect to both size and power for p=q=1.