• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권10호
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• pp.229-238
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• 2021

The article applies the ECM - ARDL model to examine the relationship between economic indicators and the existence of the disease in the long run of 10 ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019. There are two models: The first model investigates the impact of GDP per capita, net inflow FDI, unemployment rate, and inflation rate on the proportion of export to GDP of ASEAN countries, the second model is similar to the first one but adds one more variable to the independent variable list - 'the variable for disease'. The results prove the long-run effect of GDP per capita, FDI, unemployment and inflation rate on export of the selected countries, though individual country shows differences in the sign and magnitude of these impacts. Surprisingly, the number of people suffering from disease does not affect the export of all selected countries as expected. The results of the two models also indicate that the disequilibrium in the short run converges to the equilibrium in the long run with a high proportion, especially in the case of Cambodia and the Philippines, with the rate of 95.65% and 151.94%, respectively. The findings can be useful for policymakers in promulgating efficient policies to enhance the trading activities of the selected countries.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.423-434
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• 2015

This paper predicts the onion's cultivation areas, yields per unit area, and wholesale prices during ship dates by using wholesale price data from the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation, the production data from the Statistics Korea, and the weather data from the Korea Meteorological Administration with an ARDL model. By analyzing the data of wholesale price, rural household income and rural total earnings, onion cultivation areas in 2015 are estimated to be 21,035, 17,774 and 20,557(ha). In addition, onion yields per unit area of South Jeolla Province, North Gyeongsang Province, South Gyeongsang Province, Jeju Island, and the whole country in 2015 are estimated to be 5,980, 6,493, 6,543, 6,614, 6,139 (kg/10a) respectively. By using onion production's predictive value found from onion's cultivation areas and yields per unit area in 2015, the onion's wholesale prices in June are estimated to be 780 won, 1,100 won, and 820 won for each model. Predicted monthly price after the onion's ship dates is analyzed to exceed 1,000 won after August.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.69-83
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether asymmetric price transmission exists in the distribution stage of farmed olive flounder market. For the analysis, time series data were used for the producer prices of Jeju and Wando, and the wholesale prices of Incheon, Hanam and Busan. Through the Granger causality test, the causal relationship from the producer price to the wholesale price was derived and the asymmetric price transmission was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a phenomenon of 'positive asymmetric price transmission' from the producer price to the wholesale price. This result can be one evidence that excess profits are received in the intermediate distribution stage, and can be said to be a result showing the incompleteness and inefficiency of the distribution structure of the farmed olive flounder. In the future, it is required to establish an information-sharing system in all stages of production, distribution, and consumption that can create a competitive environment for distribution participants and resolve information asymmetry. Also, it is necessary to review the distribution center specializing in live fish from the viewpoint of the establishment of new distribution channels and sales diversification strategy under the rapidly changing fisheries environment.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.17-33
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• 2022

This study measures the internal and external competitiveness of 35 OECD countries in the insurance industry. We analyze whether variables related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution affect international competitiveness by applying a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. As a result, the competitiveness of life insurance foreign companies in internal is showing positive responses in high income inequality countries. In addition, insurance companies in countries with low income inequality have shown high performance in external. The non-life insurance industry is less sensitive to shocks than life insurance. This is because non-life insurance is a more dangerous industry than life insurance and there are many restrictions on policies and regulations. The reason is that non-life insurance is a more dangerous industry than life insurance and there are many restrictions on policies and regulations.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.27-37
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• 2016

This study uses an endogenous economic growth model to determine the long run relationship between trade openness and economic growth in China by using the data 1975-2009.It contributes to the literature by developing trade openness index. An autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and rolling regression method are employed. This study tests the link between trade openness and economic growth in the case of China by using the framework of endogenous economic growth model. This study also employs the rolling window regression method in order to examine the stability of coefficients throughout the sample span. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and rolling regression method are used. The empirical findings indicate that trade openness (i.e. Both individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index) are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. Our results indicate that trade openness as measured by individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. However, results from the rolling window suggest that trade openness is negatively linked to economic growth only for a number of years.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.167-176
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• 2022

By analyzing the impact of oil prices on economic growth, this study has shown a new insight into the link between oil price inflation and economic growth. The primary goal of this study is to determine if oil prices are pro-growth or anti-growth. To provide empirical proof, the series data for both the core and control variables from 1972 to 2020 was used to justify the association on empirical grounds. To account for the presence of a unit root, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test was used, and after making the series compatible for co-integration, the Autoregressive distributed lag model was used to determine the empirical estimate. Additionally, the empirical models were used to diagnose heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The reference point model reveals that in developing nations like Pakistan, economic growth is anti-growth with an increase in prices, and it responds negatively to economic growth in the long and short run. As a result, oil price inflation in Pakistan fails to have a significant beneficial impact on economic growth in both the long and short run, but it does raise the general price level in the economy.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.73-92
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• 2021

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for a large proportion of the total number of enterprises in many countries. The development of SMEs has contributed to job creation and economic benefits. Every government has formulated active diversification strategies to promote the export market of SMEs, but the performance of export capabilities remains insufficient. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of export credit insurance in promoting SME export performance in Canada. Using data from 2008-2017, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) model to test the stationarity of the concerned variables and the error correction model (ECM) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test to empirically investigate the cointegration relationship between the research targets. The results represent the positive and critical impact of export relative price and domestic demand pressure on Canada's export performance, and the negative impact of the export volume index at a significant level. Regrettably, the impact of export credit insurance on the export performance of Canadian SMEs is considered exaggerated overall. In view of this result, it is necessary for the Canadian government to enact policies based on the current market status. And enhance confidence among SMEs to begin exports and diversify their markets rather than focusing only on the domestic or US market, especially given the impact of COVID-19. From the case of Canada, Korean government can attempt to learn from them to conduct more efficient strategies for SMEs.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.463-488
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 2015년부터 시행된 온실가스 배출권 거래제도에 맞추어 상쇄(offset)제도의 구체적인 설계가 필요한 시점에서, 가정부문의 고효율 전자기기의 보급을 통해 확보할 수 있는 잠재 상쇄 공급량을 추정하였다. 분석대상 품목은 TV, 세탁기, 선풍기, 냉장고, 에어컨 등 다섯 가지 가전기기이며, 자기회귀시차분포모형(ARDL)을 통해 2016년부터 2022년까지의 고효율 가전기기의 보급대수를 추정하고, 효율 개선을 통한 전기 절감량과 이에 따른 탄소 환산율을 통해 최종적으로 잠재 상쇄 공급량을 도출하였다. 고효율 가전기기의 에너지 절감률을 각각 10%와 20%로 가정했을 때 2022년에 누적된 탄소 저감량은 $361,899CO_2t$과 $723,797CO_2t$으로 나타났으며, 에너지 절감량이 큰 순서로는 에어컨, 냉장고, TV, 세탁기, 선풍기 순으로 나타났다. 또한 에너지 소비효율 1등급 가전기기의 에너지 절감률이 20%라고 가정했을 때, 누적 탄소 저감량이 2015년에 비해 2022년에 약 316% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.57-81
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• 2010

고유가 시대인 현실에서 우리나라는 화석연료에 대한 의존도가 높아 저탄소 녹색성장이 가능한 경제사회 구조로의 전환이 시급하다. 현재 화석연료 사용과 관련된 보조금 개편은 환경에 유해한 투입요소에 대한 보조금을 감축 또는 제거하여 경제적 효율성을 제고하고 환경 피해를 완화시켜 사회 전체적으로 편익을 가져올 수 있는 Win-Win 효과가 기대되는 정책방안이다. 특히, 우리나라 전력부문에서 시행되는 보조금 제도 중에서 산업용, 농업용 및 심야전력에 대한 교차보조금의 경우, 전체 전력부문 보조금의 80% 이상을 차지하는 가장 큰 규모인데 본 논문은 전력부문 환경유해보조금 가운데 가장 큰 비중(연간 약 1조 6,583억원)을 차지하는 교차보조금 제도 중에서 산업용 전기의 환경유해보조금 개편 시 기대될 수 있는 파급효과를 가격탄력성 추정을 통해 파악하였다. 가격탄력성 추정에는 ARDL(자기회귀시차분포) 모형을 이용하였고, 기본 데이터는 1990년부터 2007년까지의 분기별 자료를 이용하였다. 본 연구에서 환경유해보조금 제거로 산업용 전력에 대한 연간 에너지 수요변화량은 -12,475,930MWh만큼 사용량이 감소할 것으로 추정되었으며, 이산화탄소 배출량의 경우를 보면 연간 2,644,897톤이 감소하는 것으로 추정되어 보조금 폐지가 이산화탄소 저감에 상당한 기여를 하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 EU에서 제시한 오염물질 단위당 환경오염비용을 이용하여 배출저감량을 금액으로 환산하면 산업용 전력보조금 제거로 연간 약 1조 1,914억원의 환경개선편익 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 이산화탄소의 경우 톤당 25유로를 적용하여 계산하면 산업용 전력보조금 제거로 연간 약 1,062억원의 환경개선편익이 발생하는 것으로 나타났다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.157-165
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• 2020

This paper estimates the optimum level of reserves in Vietnam based on the approach of reserves' cost-benefit and sovereign risk which is one of developing countries' characteristics. The cost of reserves is the opportunity cost when holding reserves. The benefit of reserves is the loss due to country's default in case that there is no reserves to finance external debt payment. The optimum reserves is found out by minimizing the total of opportunity cost and loss due to country's default with the probability of default. Through the usage of HP Filter method for calculating the loss due to country's default, ARDL regression for the risk premium model and lending rate of VND as proxy for opportunity cost together with the Vietnamese economic data in the period of 2005 - 2017, the empirical results show that the optimum reserves in Vietnam is almost higher than the actual reserves during the research period except the point of Q3/2008 and the last point of research period - Q4/2017. Therefore, Vietnam should continue to increase reserves for safety but Vietnam does not need pushing quickly the speed of increasing reserves. In addition, controlling Vietnamese optimum reserves is necessary to help the actual reserves become reasonable.