• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.135-148
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• 2007

Understanding the relation between characteristics of an accident and its duration is crucial for the efficient response of accidents and the reduction of total delay caused by accidents. Thus the objective of this study is to model accident duration using an AFT metric model. Although the log-logistic and log-normal AFT models were selected based on the previous studies and statistical theory, the log-logistic model was better fitted. Since the AFT model is commonly used for the purpose of prediction, the estimated model can be also used for the prediction of duration on freeways as soon as the base accident information is reported. Therefore, the predicted information will be directly useful to make some decisions regarding the resources needed to clear accident and dispatch crews as well as will lead to less traffic congestion and much saving the injured.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.411-425
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• 2021

Accelerated failure time (AFT) model represents a linear relationship between the log-survival time and covariates. We are interested in the inference of covariate's effect affecting the variation of survival times in the AFT model. Thus, we need to model the variance as well as the mean of survival times. We call the resulting model mean and variance AFT (MV-AFT) model. In this paper, we propose a variable selection procedure of regression parameters of mean and variance in MV-AFT model using penalized likelihood function. For the variable selection, we study four penalty functions, i.e. least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), adaptive lasso (ALASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and hierarchical likelihood (HL). With this procedure we can select important covariates and estimate the regression parameters at the same time. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using simulation studies. The proposed method is illustrated with a clinical example dataset.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.1057-1067
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• 2014

Many genetic variants have been identified to be associated with complex diseases such as hypertension, diabetes and cancers throughout genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, there still exist a serious missing heritability problem since the proportion explained by genetic variants from GWAS is very weak less than 10~15%. Gene-gene interaction study may be helpful to explain the missing heritability because most of complex disease mechanisms are involved with more than one single SNP, which include multiple SNPs or gene-gene interactions. This paper focuses on gene-gene interactions with the survival phenotype by extending the multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) method to the accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The standardized residual from AFT model is used as a residual score for classifying multiple geno-types into high and low risk groups and algorithm of MDR is implemented. We call this method AFT-MDR and compares the power of AFT-MDR with those of Surv-MDR and Cox-MDR in simulation studies. Also a real data for leukemia Korean patients is analyzed. It was found that the power of AFT-MDR is greater than that of Surv-MDR and is comparable with that of Cox-MDR, but is very sensitive to the censoring fraction.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.119-131
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• 2024

In recent years, there has been a significant growth in loan comparson services offered by fintech platforms in South Korea. However, it has been reported that loan comparison platform users tend to have a higher risk of default compared to non-users. This paper investigates the difference in platform-specific credit risk factors using survival analysis models - Kaplan-Meier curves and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. Our findings show that, relative to non-users, users of loan comparison platforms are characterized by elevated default rates, a greater propensity for home ownership, lower credit scores, and shorter loan durations. Furthermore, our AFT models elucidate the variance in default risk among the various loan comparison service platforms, highlighting the imperative for customized strategies that address the unique risk profiles of customers on each platform.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.283-290
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• 2014

In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.241-247
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• 2015

The purpose of the warranty data analysis can be classified into two categories. Two goals is a failure cause analysis and life prediction analysis. In this paper first, we applied multivariate analysis method that can be estimated in consideration of various factors on the failure cause warranty data. In particular, we apply the Tree model and Cox model. The advantage of the Tree is easy to interpret this result as compared to other models. In addition Cox model can quantitatively express the risk. Second, this paper proposed a multivariate life prediction model (AFT) considering a variety of factors. By applying the actual warranty data confirmed the usability.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.4D
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• pp.323-330
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• 2010

The time in port for vessels is one of the important factors for analyzing the operation status and the capacity of ports. In addition, the time in port for vessels can be directly used for estimating the greenhouse gas emissions resulted from vessels in port. However, it is unclear which variables can affect the time in port for vessels and what the marginal effect of each variable is. With these challenges in mind, the study analyzes the time in port for vessels arriving and departing port of Busan by using a parametric survival model. The results show that the log-logistic accelerated failure time model is appropriate to explain the time in port for 19,167 vessels arriving and departing port of Busan in 2008, in which the time in port is significantly affected by gross tonnage of vessels, service capacity of terminal, and vessel type. This study also shows that the greenhouse gas emission resulted from full-container vessels, which accounted for about 61% of all vessels with loading/unloading purpose arriving and departing port of Busan in 2008, is about "17 ton/vessel" in the boundary of port of Busan. However, the hotelling greenhouse gas emissions resulted from non-container vessels (3,774 vessels; 20%) are greater than those from the full-container vessels. Hence, it is necessary to take into account more efficient port management polices and technologies to reduce the service time of non-container vessels in port of Busan.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.47-63
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• 2023

In smart ports and port automation, the number of vertically deployed container terminals is growing. The purpose of this study is to analyze the productivity of horizontally arranged and vertically arranged container terminals by comparing the main ship operation time, and to recommend future strategies for increasing the operational efficiency of vertically configured container terminals. To achieve our goal, we chose two terminals representating each type, and collected berth allocation status data from 2018 to 2022. Then we analyzed the data using the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model, a parametric survival analysis technique. Under the assumption that the working circumstances of the C/C (Container Crane) are the same, we find that the productivity of on-board work of the vertically placed container terminal is higher than that of the horizontally placed container terminal. Our result also shows that the productivity is reduced during the COVID-19 period and the European ships show lower onboard work time. On the basis of these findings, we propose strategies to improve the productivity of vertical container terminals.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.923-929
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• 2018

In this study, we analyzed the resistance performance and running attitude of a catamaran by numerical analysis with a conventional bow, which is generally applied, and a reverse, protruding bow. The shape of the reverse bow was compared through numerical analysis and model tests. The reverse bow shape showed an improved wave pattern by shifting the generation position of the forward divergent wave to the aft in comparison with a conventional bow shape. This effect was found to be effective in determining resistance and stable running attitude. The hull resistance improved by about 2.95 %. The comparative numerical analysis and model test for the reverse bow shape completed in this study should be useful for future hull design application.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.11 no.5
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• pp.104-108
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• 2012

Recently, small scale hydropower needs to be developed due to its clean, renewable and abundant energy resources. However, suitable draft of hydro-turbine body in combination with differences in wheel blade shapes is not determined yet in the range of small hydropower and it is necessary to study for the effective draft in combination with type. Therefore, watermill shaped of 250mm diameter. hydro-turbine aiming 20 watt class generator is adopted in this study because of its simple structure and high possibility of applying to small hydropower. The result shows that effective draft for the turbine body is variable concerning the size of turbine and flow rate of water. Thus, the difference of water depth between fore and aft turbine body contributes to the increase of torque, angular momentum and power output.