• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.1662-1669
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• 2006

Since randomness and uncertainties of design parameters are inherent, the robust design has gained an ever increasing importance in mechanical engineering. The robustness is assessed by the measure of performance variability around mean value, which is called as standard deviation. Hence, constraints in robust optimization problem can be approached as probability constraints in reliability based optimization. Then, the FOSM (first order second moment) method or the AFOSM (advanced first order second moment) method can be used to calculate the mean values and the standard deviations of functions describing constraints and object. Among two methods, AFOSM method has some advantage over FOSM method in evaluation of probability. Nevertheless, it is difficult to obtain the mean value and the standard deviation of objective function using AFOSM method, because it requires that the mean value of function is always positive. This paper presented a special technique to overcome this weakness of AFOSM method. The mean value and the standard deviation of objective function by the proposed method are reliable as shown in examples compared with results by FOSM method.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.129-139
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• 2008

Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.1043-1053
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• 1994

This study suggests a practical but rational approach for the development of reliability-based LRFD criteria for transmission towers under wind and ice loadings in Korea. Based on available statistical data on wind speed and icing on transmission lines in Korea, the design wind and ice loads are obtained by Monte Carlo Simulations. In the study, the AFOSM reliability method and an Importance Sampling Technique are used for the element and system reliability evaluation of actual transmission towers. Based on the selected target reliabilities, a set of load and resistance factors for the LRFD criteria are calibrated using the AFOSM and the code optimization technique.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.1-12
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• 1987

The Advanced First Order Second Moment(AFOSM) method is commonly used to determine partial safety factors in the development of probability based LRFD code. However, design format using load and resistance factors based on this method may result in different reliability levels from specified ones. Reliability-Conditioned(RC) method recently proposed by Ayyub et al. gives partial safety factors which do not affect the target reliability level as specified. However, this method has some numerical difficulties and the procedure is not consistent. The proposed RC/AFOSM combined method has not only numerical consistency, but also results in almost constant partial safety factors with respect to various design conditions, and the resulting reliability levels are very close to specified ones.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.24 no.1 s.173
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• pp.215-224
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• 2000

In order to reduce the variation effects of uncertainties in the engineering environments, new robust optimization method, which considers the uncertainties in design process, is proposed. Both design variables and system parameters are considered as random variables about their nominal values. To ensure the robustness of performance function, a new objective is set to minimize the variance of that function. Constraint variations are handled by introducing probability constraints. Probability constraints are solved by the advanced first order second moment (AFOSM) method based on the reliability theory. The proposed robust optimization method has an advantage that the second derivatives of the constraints are not required. The suggested method is examined by solving three examples and the results are compared with those for deterministic case and those available in literature.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.62-72
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• 1995

공학분야에 널리 사용되고 있는 신뢰도 분석 방법 중에서 Monte Carlo simulation (MC), Mean-value First-Order Second-Moment Method(MFOSM), and Advanced First-Order Second-Moment(AFOSM) method들을 강물의 오염물질 농도와 수질기준치사이의 신뢰도 분석에 적용하였다. 미 환경 보건국에서 개발 보급한 QUAL2E를 이용하여 Mew Jersey에 위치한 Passaic강의 수질예측에서 4가지 주요인자(용존산소, 생물학적 산소요구량, 암모니아 그리고 조류)들이 정해진 수질기준치를 유지 할 수 있는 확률을 세가지 방법에 의해 추정한 후에 상호 비교하였다. MC방법에 의해 2,000회 simulation시켜서 그 결과가 시스템의 추계학적 성질을 잘 반영한 것으로 판단하여 비교기준으로 삼고 MFOSM과 AFOSM에 의해 추정한 결과와 비교하였다. MFOSM의 결과보다는 AFOSM의 결과가 전체적으로 MC의 결과에 더 근접하였으며, 이유는 AFOSM의 계산방법이 MFOSM의 선형근사로 인한 오차를 줄일 수 있었기 때문인 것으로 판단된다. MC방법의 결과와 다른 방법들의 결과사이의 차이가 입력 변수들이 평균값에서 멀어질 때가 많았는데 이는 MC의 경우 입력 변수들이 일정범위를 벗어나서 비현실적인 상황이면 model이 정지하는데, 다른 방법들은 simulation에 의한 것이 아니고 수학적인 계산에 의해서 신뢰도가 추정되기 때문에 이러한 상황이 반영될 수 없기 때문이다. 강물의 수질을 취급하는 공학적인 측면에서 보면, 이중에 가장 간편한 MFOSM이 많은 simulation이 필요한 MC나 계산방법이 상대적으로 복잡한 AFOSM에 비해 오차가 크지 않아서 이들을 대시하여 사용될 수 있다고 판단된다. 유래의 PAF가 분비된다는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 이러한 인자는 동결처리에서도 그 기능은 전혀 변하지 않는다고 본다. 이후에 있어서 mouse LIF의 첨가는 돼지의 수정란을 배반포 이후의 단계에까지 발달시킬 수 있었다. 있어서 더 적합한 것으로 판단되었다. 5. 개발된 모형은 논 관개의 물리적 측면과 관리목표 모두를 고려한 것으로 계산된 효율은 벼, 생육 각 단계에서의 효율 비교에 양호한 방법임을 알 수 있다.은 Sharpsburg 점질양토에 대한 S.C.S 한계허용치 10ton/ha/year 이내로 나타났다. 비처리구에서의 토양유실량은 평균 2.56ton/ha/year로 높게 나타난 반면 3개의 서로 다른 추리구인 비수구, 초생수로구 및 Bromegrass구에서는 각각 0.152, 0.192 및 0.290ton/ha/year로 낮은 결과를 가져왔다. 6. 평균 침전량에 대한 L.S.D. 검정 걸과 전시험구중 비처리구가 고도의 유의차를 나타낸 반면 비수구, 초생수로구 및 Bromegrass 목초구 간에는 아무런 유의차가 인정되지 않았다. 7. 농지보전 처리구인 배수구와 초생수로구는 비처리구에 비해 낮은 침두 유출량과 낮은 토양유실량을 나타내었다.구보다 14% 절감되는 것으로 나타났다.작용하는 것으로 사료된다.된다.정량 분석한 결과이다. 시편의 조성은 33.6 at% U, 66.4 at% O의 결과를 얻었다. 산화물 핵연료의 표면 관찰 및 정량 분석 시험시 시편 표면을 전도성 물질로 증착시키지 않고, Silver Paint 에 시편을 접착하는 방법으로도 만족한 시험 결과를 얻을 수 있었다.째, 회복기 중에 일어나는 입자들의 유입은 자기폭풍의 지속시간을 연장시키는 경향을 보이며 큰 자기폭풍일수록 현저했다. 주상에서 관측된 이러한 특성은 서브스톰 확장기 활동이 자기폭풍의 발달과 밀접한 관계가

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.15-24
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• 1988

To identify the stability of cantilever retaining wall in safe state by the deterministic method, these potential modes of such geotechnical failures as bearing capacity, horizontal sliding and overturning are analysed using Advanced First Order Second Moment (AFOSM) method. All design variables are assumed of the normal distribution and to be statistically independent. Considering the correlations between the single modes, structural system reliability index is 2. 05. Even if the safety factors are larger than the required value in the codes' by the conventional deterministic method, the system reliability of this structure may not be Judged to be safe state since the system reliability index is much lower than general value of 3.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.7-16
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• 1988

The safety factor has been used widely and uniquely at present to check the safety of the structure . However, probability of failure would be logically attempted to check the reliability of the structure in future Coulomb's theory or Rankine's theory has been applied in practice to retaining earth structure in spite of the fact that the lateral earth pressure, which is the primary factor in the determination of wall structure, depends on the modes of wall movement . This study is concentrated on the two modes of , wall movement (active case rotation about bottom(AB) , active case rotation about top(AT)) of the overturning'failure of vertical wall with horizontal sand backfill . The static active earth pressure is determined by applying each of Coulomb's theory, Dubrova's redistribution theory and Chang's method The earthquake active earth pressure is determined by adding Seed and Whitman's earthquake pressure to the static earth pressure , On the condition that design variables are fixed with each of the above earth pressure, reliability is analyzed using the recently developed method of AFOSM (Advanced First Order Second Moment)

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.119-129
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• 1991

This study is directed for the development of an efficient Importance Sampling Technique for system reliability analysis of bridge structures. Many methods have been proposed for structural reliability assessment such as the First-order Second-Moment Method, the Advanced Second-Moment Method, Monte Carlo Simulation, etc. The Importance Sampling Technique can be employed to obtain accurate estimates for the system reliability with reasonable computation effort. Based on the results of example analysis, it may be concluded that Importance Sampling Technique is a very effective tool for the system reliability analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.433-436
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• 2004

The safety of buildings is generally estimated by analyzing a plane frame ignoring a minor bending moment. In this paper, uncertainties of reinforced concrete shear wall subjected to a biaxial bending are considered. First, major parameters are selected from all parameters of general shear wall design to perform a reliability analysis in their practical ranges, means and standard derivations of selected design parameters for the reliability analysis are calculated by a data mining as a simulation method. The bi-section method is used to find inclined neutral axis and its limit state using MATLAB subjected to the concept on strength design method. The reliability index $\beta$ as a safety index is calculated based on AFOSM(Advanced First-Order Second Moment) method. Also, if target reliability index $\beta_T$ is decided by an engineer an amount of reinforcement can be calculated by subtracting the reliability index $\beta$ from the target reliability index $\beta_T$.