• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.62-72
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• 1995

공학분야에 널리 사용되고 있는 신뢰도 분석 방법 중에서 Monte Carlo simulation (MC), Mean-value First-Order Second-Moment Method(MFOSM), and Advanced First-Order Second-Moment(AFOSM) method들을 강물의 오염물질 농도와 수질기준치사이의 신뢰도 분석에 적용하였다. 미 환경 보건국에서 개발 보급한 QUAL2E를 이용하여 Mew Jersey에 위치한 Passaic강의 수질예측에서 4가지 주요인자(용존산소, 생물학적 산소요구량, 암모니아 그리고 조류)들이 정해진 수질기준치를 유지 할 수 있는 확률을 세가지 방법에 의해 추정한 후에 상호 비교하였다. MC방법에 의해 2,000회 simulation시켜서 그 결과가 시스템의 추계학적 성질을 잘 반영한 것으로 판단하여 비교기준으로 삼고 MFOSM과 AFOSM에 의해 추정한 결과와 비교하였다. MFOSM의 결과보다는 AFOSM의 결과가 전체적으로 MC의 결과에 더 근접하였으며, 이유는 AFOSM의 계산방법이 MFOSM의 선형근사로 인한 오차를 줄일 수 있었기 때문인 것으로 판단된다. MC방법의 결과와 다른 방법들의 결과사이의 차이가 입력 변수들이 평균값에서 멀어질 때가 많았는데 이는 MC의 경우 입력 변수들이 일정범위를 벗어나서 비현실적인 상황이면 model이 정지하는데, 다른 방법들은 simulation에 의한 것이 아니고 수학적인 계산에 의해서 신뢰도가 추정되기 때문에 이러한 상황이 반영될 수 없기 때문이다. 강물의 수질을 취급하는 공학적인 측면에서 보면, 이중에 가장 간편한 MFOSM이 많은 simulation이 필요한 MC나 계산방법이 상대적으로 복잡한 AFOSM에 비해 오차가 크지 않아서 이들을 대시하여 사용될 수 있다고 판단된다. 유래의 PAF가 분비된다는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 이러한 인자는 동결처리에서도 그 기능은 전혀 변하지 않는다고 본다. 이후에 있어서 mouse LIF의 첨가는 돼지의 수정란을 배반포 이후의 단계에까지 발달시킬 수 있었다. 있어서 더 적합한 것으로 판단되었다. 5. 개발된 모형은 논 관개의 물리적 측면과 관리목표 모두를 고려한 것으로 계산된 효율은 벼, 생육 각 단계에서의 효율 비교에 양호한 방법임을 알 수 있다.은 Sharpsburg 점질양토에 대한 S.C.S 한계허용치 10ton/ha/year 이내로 나타났다. 비처리구에서의 토양유실량은 평균 2.56ton/ha/year로 높게 나타난 반면 3개의 서로 다른 추리구인 비수구, 초생수로구 및 Bromegrass구에서는 각각 0.152, 0.192 및 0.290ton/ha/year로 낮은 결과를 가져왔다. 6. 평균 침전량에 대한 L.S.D. 검정 걸과 전시험구중 비처리구가 고도의 유의차를 나타낸 반면 비수구, 초생수로구 및 Bromegrass 목초구 간에는 아무런 유의차가 인정되지 않았다. 7. 농지보전 처리구인 배수구와 초생수로구는 비처리구에 비해 낮은 침두 유출량과 낮은 토양유실량을 나타내었다.구보다 14% 절감되는 것으로 나타났다.작용하는 것으로 사료된다.된다.정량 분석한 결과이다. 시편의 조성은 33.6 at% U, 66.4 at% O의 결과를 얻었다. 산화물 핵연료의 표면 관찰 및 정량 분석 시험시 시편 표면을 전도성 물질로 증착시키지 않고, Silver Paint 에 시편을 접착하는 방법으로도 만족한 시험 결과를 얻을 수 있었다.째, 회복기 중에 일어나는 입자들의 유입은 자기폭풍의 지속시간을 연장시키는 경향을 보이며 큰 자기폭풍일수록 현저했다. 주상에서 관측된 이러한 특성은 서브스톰 확장기 활동이 자기폭풍의 발달과 밀접한 관계가

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.15-24
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• 1988

To identify the stability of cantilever retaining wall in safe state by the deterministic method, these potential modes of such geotechnical failures as bearing capacity, horizontal sliding and overturning are analysed using Advanced First Order Second Moment (AFOSM) method. All design variables are assumed of the normal distribution and to be statistically independent. Considering the correlations between the single modes, structural system reliability index is 2. 05. Even if the safety factors are larger than the required value in the codes' by the conventional deterministic method, the system reliability of this structure may not be Judged to be safe state since the system reliability index is much lower than general value of 3.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.207-214
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• 2001

In Korea, the multi-dwelling residential buildings are most popular housing system that is reinforced concrete shear wall system. However, the serviceability and safety of the system have been decreased because of the errors in design or construction and inadequate maintenance. In addition the safety of the system cannot be evaluated reasonably because the system is analyzed by the deterministic approach. Therefore, this study is aimed to analyze reinforced concrete shear walls by the reliability approach considering uncertainty based on the probability theory. In this study, a reliability analysis program using MATLAB is developed by combining AFOSM and Sampling Method for the reinforced concrete shear walls within feasible design area. The reasonable reliability index β of ultimate limit states for RC shear walls are calculated automatically using this developed program with the measured data those have means and standard deviations in the field. The ultimate states are compression failure, tension failure, governing compression, and governing bending of the reinforced concrete shear walls respectively. To estimate the safety of the system using developed program can be used to predict residual life-time of the system.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.679-690
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• 1997

The risk assessment model for hydrlolgic safety analysis of dam and levee in developed by using Monte-Carlo and AFOSM (Advanced First-Order Second-Moment) method. The fault tree analysis and four phases approach are presented for the safety eveluation of risk of dam and levee. The risk model consists of rainfall-runoff analysis, reservoir routing and channel routing considering the variations in the model parameter. For the rainfall-runoff analysis, KRRL method is adopted with 200-year precipitation and PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation). Reservoir routing is performed by fourth order Runge-Kutta method and channel routing by standard step method. The suggested model will contribute to safety evaluation of dam and levee and their rehabilitation decision problem.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.395-402
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• 2007

Probabilistic risk assessment was conducted on a hybrid cable-stayed bridge consisting of a steel-composite plate girder and a concrete girder with a long span, designed using the working stress design and strength design methods. The component reliabilities of the bridge's cables, pylons, girders, and steel-concrete conjunction were evaluated using the AFOSM(Advanced First Order Second Moment) algorithm and the simulation technique at the critical sections, based on the maximum axial force, shear, and positive and negative moments of the selected sections. For the analysis of system reliability, the hybrid cable-stayed bridge consisting of cables, pylons, and plate girders was modeled into combined failure modes, and for system reliability, the probabilities of failure and reliability index of the structural system were evaluated. Based on the results of this study, the critical failure modes of the hybrid cable-stayed bridge based on the bridge's structural characteristics are suggested, and the efficiency of the partial ETA technique for use in the risk assessment method was confirmed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.53-60
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• 1986

This study is directed to propose a probability based LRFD design code, which could possibly replace the traditional USD provisions of the current code, based on the AFOSM reliability theory. The uncertainties of resistances and load effects for each R.C. structural elements are evaluated and adopted considering our practice, and a set of rational target reliability indices are selected based on the calibration with the reliability of the current R.C. design code and by considering the desired hierarchy of safety level. Then, a set of common load factors are chosen from the results of load and resistance factors which are computed by AFOSM method using the Rackwitz-Fiessler's efficient practical algorithm which is to transform the non-normal variables into the equivalent normal variables. It may be asserted that the proposed LRFD code for the R.C. building structures may have to be incorporated into the current RC. design codes as a design provision corresponding to the USD provisions of the current R.C. design code.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.111-117
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• 1991

The analysis method calculating the mean and standard deviation for the eigenvalue of complicated structures in which the limit state equation is implicitly expressed is formulated and applied to the buckling analysis by combining probabilistic finite element method with direct differential method which is a kind of sensitivity analysis technique. Also, the probability of buckling failure is calculated by combining classical reliability techniques such a MVFOSM and AFOSM. As random variables external load, elastic modulus, sectional moment of inertia and member length are chosen and Parkinson's iteration algorithm in AFOSM is used. The accuracy of the results by this study is verified by comparing the results with the crude Monte Carlo simulation and Importance Sampling Method. Through the case study of some structures the important aspects of buckling reliability analysis are discussed.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.10
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• pp.54-62
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• 2017

This paper describes the behavior and failure probability of the basic structural members in a fire for the fire safety assessment of offshore structures. A fire safety assessment can be accomplished by comparing the fire resistance of the members with the fire severity of the heat load due to fire. The fire severity is represented as the maximum temperature of the members using the Eurocode 1 standard fire curve and heat transfer equation. On the other hand, the fire resistance is the limiting temperature calculated by a simplified formula in the case of simple structural members. Considering the complexity of FPSOs and offshore structures, a general-purpose structural analysis program should be used and the limiting temperature obtained by analyzing the structural strength of the members through an elasto-plastic analysis with a large deflection, and compared with the maximum temperature. Also, the equality of these two methods of evaluating the fire resistance was confirmed by comparing them. Following three criteria, the strength, serviceability and stability, three failure modes, namely the first failure of a hinge, large deflection and buckling, were chosen. The failure temperature was verified for each failure mode. using the AFOSM method in the equation of the fire severity and fire resistance, thereby giving the failure probability of the member. By applying these processes to the example of a beam and plate, the behavior of the structure and failure (temperature?) of each failure mode can be determined.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society For Composite Materials Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.187-190
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• 2001

Response surface method is applied to evaluate the reliability of laminated composite panels. Since the linear and nonlinear first-ply failure load are computed using deterministic finite element analysis, new probabilistic finite element analysis is not necessary. Tsai-Wu criterion is used to construct the limit state suface. Material properties, layer thickness and lamina strengths of laminated composite panel are treated as random design variables. feasibility and accuracy of current method is validated using Monte-Carlo method Which perform thousand times of finite element analysis directly.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.9 no.5 s.45
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• pp.1-10
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• 2005

This study proposes a fatigue reliability evaluation procedure for steel-composite high-speed railway bridge based on dynamic analysis and investigates the effectiveness of Tuned Mass Damper(TMD) in terms of the extension of fatigue life of the bridge. For the fatigue reliability evaluation, the limit state is determined using S-N curve and linear fatigue-damage accumulation. Dynamic analyses are peformed repeatedly to consider the uncertainties of train-velocity and damping ratio of the bridge. The distribution of random variables related to fatigue damage for the intended service life is then statistically estimated from analytical results. Finally, the fatigue reliability indices are obtained by means of the Advanced First-Order Second-Moment (AFOSM) method. Through numerical simulation of a steel-composite bridge of 40m span, the effectiveness of TMD on fatigue life of the bridge is examined and the results are presented.