• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.83-95
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• 2017

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop a regression model to predict the International Roughness Index(IRI) and Surface Distress(SD) for the estimation of HPCI using Expressway Pavement Management System(PMS). METHODS : To develop an HPCI prediction model, prediction models of IRI and SD were developed in advance. The independent variables considered in the models were pavement age, Annual Average Daily Traffic Volume(AADT), the amount of deicing salt used, the severity of Alkali Silica Reaction(ASR), average temperature, annual temperature difference, number of days of precipitation, number of days of snowfall, number of days below zero temperature, and so on. RESULTS : The present IRI, age, AADT, annual temperature differential, number of days of precipitation and ASR severity were chosen as independent variables for the IRI prediction model. In addition, the present IRI, present SD, amount of deicing chemical used, and annual temperature differential were chosen as independent variables for the SD prediction model. CONCLUSIONS : The models for predicting IRI and SD were developed. The predicted HPCI can be calculated from the HPCI equation using the predicted IRI and SD.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.459-473
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• 2007

In this paper, we suggest a spatial regression model to predict AADT. Although Euclidian distances between one monitoring site and its neighboring sites were usually used in the many analysis, we consider the shortest travel path between monitoring sites to predict AADT for unmonitoring site using spatial regression model. We used universal Kriging method for prediction and found that the overall predictive capability of the spatial regression model based on shortest travel path is better than that of the model based on multiple regression by cross validation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.79-88
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• 2007

Design Hourly Volume (DHV) is the hourly volume used for designing a section of road. DHV is also used to estimate the expected number of vehicles to pass or traverse the relevant section of road in a future target year. The Design Hour Factor (DHF) is defined as the ratio of DHV to Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT). In addition to high precision of predicted traffic volume, in order to design a roadway to be the proper scale, applying appropriate DHFs considering traffic flow characteristics and type of area which surrounds the relevant roadway is important. This study categorizes sections of expressway (Suh Hae An Expressway) according to their area type and estimates DHFs utilizing traffic data obtained from a vehicle detection system (VDS). This study shows that DHFs calculated using VDS data are different from those using traffic data acquired from a coverage survey. While AADTs from both data show similar values, peak hour volumes from both data show significant differences especially for recreational areas. DHFs from the coverage survey are quite different from the values provided by the Korean design guide or previous research results and DHFs for urban areas are higher than recreational areas. However, DHFs from VDS shows similar values to previous research results. The result of this study suggests that using VDS for estimating DHFs is more reliable than using a coverage survey.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.49-59
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• 2001

In the transportation planning process, origin and destination(O-D) trip matrix is one of the most important elements. There have been developments and applications of the methodology to adjust old matrices using link traffic counts. Commonly, the accuracy of an adjusted O-D matrix depends very much on the reliability of the input data such as the numbers and locations of traffic counting points in the road network. In the real application of the methodology, decisions on the numbers and locations of traffic counting points are one of the difficult problems, because usually as networks become bigger, the numbers of traffic counting points are required more. Therefore, this paper investigates these issues as an experiment using a nationwide network in Korea. We have compared and contrasted the set of link flows assigned by the old and the adjusted O-D matrices with the set of observed link flows. It has been analyzed by increasing the number of the traffic counting points on the experimental road network. As a result of these analyses, we can see an optimal set of the number of counting links through statistical analysis, which are approximately ten percentages of the total link numbers. In addition, the results show that the discrepancies between the old and the adjusted matrices in terms of the trip length frequency distributions and the assigned and the counted link flows are minimized using the optimal set of the counted links.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.6 s.92
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• pp.33-43
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• 2006

This research is to the selection of optimal probability distribution as well as the estimation for design hourly factor in consideration of traffic characteristic, such as road function, lane number and AADT. To accomplish the objectives, we are applied to various probability distribution using traffic data that observed at permanent traffic count points in 2005. The parameters or the selected 14 probability distribution were estimated based on the method of maximum likelihood and the validity condition of the estimated parameter The goodness-of-fit test, such as chi-square test. was performed as well as the estimation of design hourly factor. As a result, An appropriate distributions of each case were selected : Pearson V for two lane of rural roads, LogLogistic for the four lane of rural roads, LogLogistic for the urban roads, Extreme value for recreation roads. And optimal K factor are as following : $0.1{\sim}0.2 $ for two lane of rural roads, $0.09{\sim}0.14$ for the four lane of rural roads. $0.07{\sim}0.13$ for the urban roads, $0.1{\sim}0.2$ for recreation roads.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.487-493
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• 2017

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the main parameters involved in the asphalt pavement distresses, including IRI (International Rough Index), fatigue, and permanent deformation. The main parameters are the region (Seoul and Busan), traffic level, asphalt binder, maximum aggregate of surface course, thickness of the surface course and base. A total of 64 case studies were carried out under the auspices of the KPRP (Korea Pavement Research Program). From the analysis of the KPRP test results, the key factors for the asphalt pavement distress were determined. Considering the effect of one variable in the basic condition, asphalt binder was the major factor having an effect on the distresses for an AADT (Annual Average Daily Traffic) of 5000 in the Seoul area. Among the remaining factors, the results were found to be in the order of the base layer thickness (A), surface layer thickness (B), and aggregate particle size thickness (D). The same results were obtained for an AADT of 10000. In the case of Busan with an AADT of 5000, the same result was obtained as for Seoul. Among the remaining factors, the results were in the order of the base layer thickness (A), aggregate particle thickness (D), and surface layer thickness (B). Even though there was a slight difference in the effect of the traffic level and region, asphalt binder was the parameter having the greatest effect on the asphalt pavement distress. In the case where the effect of multiple parameters was analyzed, the combination of the asphalt binder and base thickness showed a relatively strong effect.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.19-29
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• 2008

The main purpose of this study is to introduce Hauer's(2004) approach that overcomes current accident prediction models' limitation and to apply this approach to Korean situation using fatal accident data on motorways. After developing accident prediction models according to this approach, it is found that AADT and vertical grade could improve fitness of the model, whereas a radius of roads is not related to the number of accidents. The advantage of Hauer's approach is to reduce possibility to eliminate critical variables and to keep uncritical variables when we consider many variables to develop accident prediction models.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.85-94
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• 2013

The Continuous Risk Profile (CRP) has been well known to be the most accurate and efficient among existing network screening methods. However, the classical CRP uses safety performance functions (SPFs) which require a huge investment to construct a database system. This study aims to suggest a new CRP method using average crash frequencies of homogeneous groups, instead of SPFs, as rescaling factors. Hierarchical clustering analysis is performed to classify freeway segments into homogeneous groups based on the data of AADT and number of lanes. Using the data from I-880 in California, the proposed method is compared to other several network screening methods. The results show that the proposed method decrease false positive rates while it does not produce any false negatives. The method developed in this study can be easily applied to screen freeway networks without any additional complex database systems, and contribute to the improvement of freeway safety management systems.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.41-50
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• 2010

This paper presents an investigation result that is made to determine dominant influencing factors and their specific impacts on motorist detour makings for VMS placements on freeway. This was necessary to provide engineers with a tool for evaluating VMS cost-effectiveness and its feasibility. This research found that additional travel time delay is the most influential variable in determining motorist detour makings. Also, more than 70% freeway motorists recognize the adjacent national roads as their detour routes, and both AADT and the distance to the entering point of the detour path are found to be dominating factors. Motorist detour ratio model by VMS placement on freeway is developed based on the Stated Preference. In model validation, actual detour making behaviors observed by the Revealed Preference values verify the detour ratio on the Stated Preference. These research findings should be useful for cost-effective placements of VMS on freeway, and it is recommended that the results be tested by practicing engineers in the ITS sector.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.81-89
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• 2015

Crashes that occur at tollgates have different characteristics compared to those of the mainline on expressways in terms of crash cause, crash type, and vehicle type. Due to this fact, the safety performance function (SPF) focused on the expressway tollgates, apart from the mainline, should be developed. The aim of this study is, therefore, to identify the influential factors and develope a SPF for crashes at tollgates. Firstly, we established independent variables affecting crashes at tollgates through literature review and descriptive statistical analysis. Based on these variables, two negative binomial regression models with different form of independent variables were developed and goodness-of-fits of each model were compared. According to the results, the number of crashes increases i) as AADT, Hi-pass rate, and heavy vehicle rate increase, ii) as average lane width decreases, iii) on the mainline tollgate type. The safety performance function developed in this study could be applied to select hot-spots for expressway tollgates.