• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.3
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• pp.149-157
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• 2012

For the systemic management and planning of future agricultural water resources, deriving and analyzing the various results of climate change are necessary to respond the uncertainties of climate change. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the rainfall, temperature, and agricultural water requirement targeting in the Nakdong-river's basin periodically according to socioeconomic driving factors under the scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) through the various IPCC GCMs. As a result of future rainfall change (2011~2100), increasing or decreasing tendency of rainfall change for future periods did not show a clear trend for three rainfall observatories, Daegu, Busan and Gumi. The characteristics of the temperature change consistently show a tendency to increase, and in the case of Daegu observatory, high temperature growth was shown. Especially, it was increased by 93.3 % in the period of future3 (2071~2100) for A2 scenario. According to the scenario and periodic analyses on the agricultural water demand, which was thought to be dependent on rainfall and temperature, the agricultural water demand increased at almost every period except during the Period Future1 (2011~2040) with different increase sizes, and the scenario-specific results were shown to be similar. As for areas, the agricultural water demand showed more changes in the sub-basin located by the branch of Nakdong-river than at the mainstream of the River.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.127-147
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• 2023

This study is trying to analyze the economic effect of replacing thermal power generation, one of the government's carbon-neutral policies, with new and renewable energy. For this analysis, scenario A is set to replace 100% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario B is set to replace 60% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy. In addition, costs are incurred when replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario 1 is the same cost as the current cost, and scenario 2 is120% higher than the current cost. Therefore, when converting thermal power generation to new and renewable energy, the scenarios are largely organized into four cases. In the case of replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, the production inducement coefficient of thermal power generation decreased from the current level regardless of the scenario. However, the value-added inducement coefficient and the greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are lower than the current level when thermal power is converted to renewable energy by 100%, while the value-added inducement coefficient and greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are higher than the current level. In addition, the greenhouse gas emission induction coefficient of most industries was found to decrease, while the production induction coefficient and the value-added induction coefficient increased. Scenario A seems appropriate because the purpose of the government's policy is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by converting thermal power into new and renewable energy. However, as a result of this, the production inducement coefficient and value-added inducement coefficient of some industries decrease, so the government's support policy is needed to solve this problem

• The Journal of the Korean Institute of Forest Recreation
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.11-22
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• 2018

This study analyzes the economic feasibility on the transition of production structure to increase income for a local forest village in Laos PDR. The study area was the Nongboua village in Sangthong district where the primary product is rice from rice paddy. Possible strategies were considered to increase the villagers' revenue, and Noni (Morinda citrifolia) was production in the short-term. We assumed that the project period was for 20 years for the analysis, and a total of 1,100 Noni tree was planted in 1 ha by $3m{\times}3m$ spacing. This study classified basic scenario one, scenario two, scenario three by the survival rate and purchase pirce of Noni. Generally Noni grows well. However, the seedlings' average survival rate (= production volume) was set up conservatively in this study to consider potential risks such as no production experience of Noni and tree disease. The scenario one assumed that the survival rate of Noni seedlings was 50% for 0-1 years, 60% for 0-2 years, and 70% for 3-20 years; the scenario two, 10% less, i.e., 40%, 50%, and 60%; and the scenario three, 10% less, i.e., 40%, 50%, 60% and purchase price 10% less, i.e., $0.29 to $0.26, respectively. Our analysis showed that all 3 scenarios resulted in economically-feasible IRR (internal rate of return) of 24.81%, 19.02%, and 16.30% of with a discounting rate of 10%. The B/C (benefit/cost) ratio for a unit area (1ha) was also analyzed for the three scenarios with a discounting rate of 10%, resutling in the B/C ratio of 1.71, 1.47, and 1.31. The study results showed that the Nongboua village would have a good opportunity to improve its low-income structure through planting and managing alternative crops such as Noni. Also the results can be used as useful decision-making information at a preliminary analysis level for planning other government and public investment projects for the Nonboua village.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.891-905
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• 2011

Climate vulnerability index is usually defined as a function of the climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, which requires adequate selection of proxy variables of each variable. We selected and used 9 proxy variables related to climate exposure in the literature, and diagnosed the adequacy of them for application in Korean peninsula. The selected proxy variables are: four variables from temperature, three from precipitation, one from wind speed, and one from relative humidity. We collected climate data over both previous year (1981~2010) and future climate scenario (A1B scenario of IPCC SERES) for 2020, 2050, and 2100. We introduced the spatial and temporal diagnostic statistical parameters, and evaluated both spatial and time variabilities in the relative scale. Of 9 proxy variables, effective humidity indicated the most sensitive to climate change temporally with the biggest spatial variability, implying a good proxy variable in diagnostics of climate change vulnerability in Korea. The second most sensitive variable is the frequency of strong wind speed with a decreasing trend, suggesting that it should be used carefully or may not be of broad utility as a proxy variable in Korea. The A1B scenario of future climate in 2020, 2050 and 2100 matches well with the extension of linear trend of observed variables during 1981~2010, indicating that, except for strong wind speed, the selected proxy variables can be effectively used in calculating the vulnerability index for both past and future climate over Korea. Other local variabilities for the past and future climate in association with climate exposure variables are also discussed here.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.451-461
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• 2017

Korean agriculture has recently focused on the 6th dimension of industrialization, which includes the functions of healing and care. The green care and healing business is one of the most representative models, satisfying modern consumers' needs for care or healing in rural agricultural environments. Many studies have shown physical and social benefits from green care and healing, but studies regarding economic performance are rarely found. The present study aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of different green care and healing farm complexes proposed in recent domestic research, with various possible combinations of business scenarios. The results show that most of the scenarios are economically feasible as B/C (benefit-cost ratio) and IRR (internal rate of return) are 1.19 and 8.53%, respectively, under scenario 1. This study also performed a break-even analysis for providing more flexible decision-making information. Overall, scenario 1 from green care and healing site and scenario 4 from green care and healing cluster are found to be superior to the other scenarios in terms of B/C and IRR. The scenarios in this study reflect the domestic farms or complexes which have similar functions of care or healing. Therefore, the results of this study provide information on practical policies and business implications in making decisions on the specific size and operational patterns when adopting green care and healing complexes by central or local governments and private sectors in the future.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.25-33
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• 2008

To investigate the hydrologic impacts of climate changes on dam inflow for Soyanggangdam watershed $(2694.4km^2)$ of northeastern South Korea, SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process) model and the climate change results of CCCma CGCM2 based on SRES A2 and B2 were adopted. By the CA-Markov technique, future land use changes were estimated using the three land cover maps (1985, 1990, 2000) classified by Landsat TM satellite images. NDVI values for 2050 and 2100 land uses were estimated from the relationship of NDVI-Temperature linear regression derived from the observed data (1998-2002). Before the assessment, the SLURP model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1998-2001) dam inflow data with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.61 to 0.77. In case of A2 scenario, the dam inflows of 2050 and 2100 decreased 49.7 % and 25.0 % comparing with the dam inflow of 2000, and in case of B2 scenario, the dam inflows of 2050 and 2100 decreased 45.3 % and 53.0 %, respectively. The results showed that the impact of land use change covered 2.3 % to 4.9 % for the dam inflow change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.1772-1776
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• 2006

The Ministry of Environment is determining reference flows and goal water qualities in many stations over all around riverbasin to control TMDL. Reference flow is now defined to 10 years averaged 275th minimum flow$(Q_{275})$. Dam operation takes direct effect on flows downstream. The Yongdam mutipurposed dam was constructed in 2002 and TMDL managing stations between the Daecheong dam and the Yongdam dam are the Geumbon B, C, D, E, and F in main stream of the Geum river. Geumbon F is the Daecheong dam site. Observed flows are ideal to be used to set reference flows, but simulated flows are more practical to be used to set reference flows from the cause of the Yongdam dam's operation. A system for simulating daily storages of the Yongdam dam was constructed and the DAWAST model was selected to simulate daily streamflows. Analysis period was selected for 10 years from 1996 to 2005. Scenario was set as follows; Firstly, observed outflows from the Yongdam dam are used from 2002 to 2005 and the Yongdam dam does not exist from 1995 to 2001. Secondly, the Yongdam dam existed also from 1995 to 2001 and simulated outflows from the Yongdam dam are used from 1996 to 2005 with provision of constant outflow of $7.0m^3/s$ and water supply to the Jeonju region outsided watershed of $900,000m^3/day$. In case of scenario 1 reference flows at the Geumbon B, C, D, E, F are 4.52, 6.69, 7.96, 11.17, and $13.21m^3/s$, respectively. And in case of scenario 2 reference flows at the Geumbon B, C, D, E, F are 6.27, 8.48, 9.58, 12.73, and $15.12m^3/s$, respectively.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.115-130
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• 2022

In this study, I focus on analyzing how the effects of implementing ETS are different depending on whether Korean ETS linking with carbon markets in other countries. The global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built in this study analyzes the chages in the production and trade of industrial sectors according to the international linkage of ETS compared to the reference scenario of emissions reduction targets and implementation of ETS. From the analysis of internatioanl linkage of carbon markets scenarios, Annex B countries-South Korea carbon market linkage with individual ETS in China worse the economic outcomes in South Korea the most. This means South Korea lose the international competitiveness compared to China in this scenario. On the other hand, Annex B-China carbon market linkage with Korean individual ETS implementation reduce the decreases in production and trading. The most effective way is to join a global emissions trading market with China. The results are consistent in most industries of South Korea. These results are caused by that the supply of emission allowance is increased and the price of emissions allowances is dropped by China's participation to the carbon market, which can be understood to reduce the carbon reduction cost for industrial sectors. In addition, it can be also concluded that the determinant of the negative impact of ETS on changes in production and trade is more sensitive to the price of emissions allowances than to the characteristics of production and trade structure.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.278-287
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• 2007

Since traffic congestion ratio at any given port fluctuates on the number of arriving and departing vessels, the total tonnage of freight volume being handled, and the number of berth in operation and other factors, there exists a need to numerically analyze the waterway traffic volume. However, there are no effective regulations in regards to the waterway traffic analysis prior to expansion of a port facility. The current analysis requires the traffic analysis in relation only to the width of the waterway, which clearly falls short of achieving a comprehensive evaluation study that could be used in consideration of port expansion.This study provides five scenarios to execute a comprehensive evaluation study and base for the sensitivity study by analyzing the scenarios. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the A, B, and C scenarios varies the average arrival ratio of the berth shows 1.1, 1.19, and 1.28 times of delays respectively. Also, The D and E scenarios take place malfunctions of pier shows 1.21 and 1.53 times of delays respectively. Therefore, various strategies of harbor development and method of harbor management are needed for the flexible correspondence to the environmental changes such as the excessive increasing of the freight volume and often taking place of malfunctioning.

• Journal of the Optical Society of Korea
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.118-123
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• 2014

For multi parameter optimization of Raman Fiber Amplifier (RFA), a simple genetic algorithm is presented in the scenario of a 320 channel Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexed (DWDM) system at channel spacing of 25 GHz. The large average gain (> 22 dB) is observed from optimized RFA with the optimized parameters, such as 39.6 km of Raman length with counter-propagating pumps tuned to 205.5 THz and 211.9 THz at pump powers of 234.3 mW, 677.1 mW respectively. The gain flattening filter (GFF) has also been optimized to further reduce the gain ripple across the frequency range from 190 to 197.975 THz for broadband amplification.