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Reliability Computation of Neuro-Fuzzy Model Based Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting (뉴로-퍼지 모델 기반 단기 전력 수요 예측시스템의 신뢰도 계산)

  • Shim, Hyun-Jeong;Wang, Bo-Hyeun
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.467-474
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a systematic method to compute a reliability measure for a short term electrical load forecasting system using neuro-fuzzy models. It has been realized that the reliability computation is essential for a load forecasting system to be applied practically. The proposed method employs a local reliability measure in order to exploit the local representation characteristic of the neuro-fuzzy models. It, hence, estimates the reliability of each fuzzy rule learned. The design procedure of the proposed short term load forecasting system is as follows: (1) construct initial structures of neuro-fuzzy models, (2) store them in the initial structure bank, (3) train the neuro-fuzzy model using an appropriate initial structure, and (4) compute load prediction and its reliability. In order to demonstrate the viability of the proposed method, we develop an one hour ahead load forecasting system by using the real load data collected during 1996 and 1997 at KEPCO. Simulation results suggest that the proposed scheme extends the applicability of the load forecasting system with the reliably computed reliability measure.

Prediction of Greenhouse Energy Loads using Building Energy Simulation (BES) (BES 프로그램을 이용한 국내 대표적 대형온실의 에너지 부하 예측)

  • Lee, Sung-Bok;Lee, In-Bok;Homg, Se-Woon;Seo, Il-Hwan;Bitog, P. Jessie;Kwon, Kyeong-Seok;Ha, Tae-Hwan;Han, Chang-Pyoung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.113-124
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    • 2012
  • Reliable estimation of energy load inside the greenhouse and the selection of cooling and heating facilities are very important preceding factors to save energy as well as initial and maintenance costs of operating a greenhouse. Recently, building energy simulation (BES) technique to simulate a model similar to the actual conditions through a variety of dynamic simulation methods, and predict and analyze the flow of energy is being actively introduced and developed. As a fundamental research to apply the BES technique which is mainly used for analysis of general buildings, to greenhouse, this research designed four types of naturally-ventilated greenhouses using one of commercial programs, TRNSYS, and then compared and analyzed their energy load properties, by applying meteorological data collected from six regions in Korea. When comparing the greenhouse load of each region depending on latitude and topographical characteristics through simulation, Chuncheon had nearly 9~49 % higher heating load per year than other regions, but its annual cooling load was the reverse to it. Except for Jeju, 1-2W type greenhouses in five regions showed about 17 % higher heating load than a widespan type greenhouse, and 1-2W type greenhouses in Chuncheon, Suwon, Cheongju, Daegu, Cheonju and Jeju had 23 %, 20 %, 17 %, 16 %, 18 % and 20 % higher cooling load respectively than a wide span-type one. Glasshouse and vinyl greenhouse showed 8~11 % and 10~12 % differences respectively in heating load, while 2~10 % and 7~10 % differences in cooling load respectively.

A study on the Electrical Load Pattern Classification and Forecasting using Neural Network (신경회로망을 이용한 전력부하의 유형분류 및 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, June-Ho;Shin, Gil-Jae;Lee, Hwa-Suk
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1991.11a
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    • pp.39-42
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    • 1991
  • The Application of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) to forecast a load in a power system is investigated. The load forecasting is important in the electric utility industry. This technique, methodology based on the fact that parallel structure can process very fast much information is a promising approach to a load forecasting. ANN that is highly interconnected processing element in a hierachy activated by the each input. The load pattern can be divided distinctively into two patterns, that is, weekday and weekend. ANN is composed of a input layer, several hidden layers, and a output layer and the past data is used to activate input layer. The output of ANN is the load forecast for a given day. The result of this simulation can be used as a reference to a electric utility operation.

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An Applicative Estimation of Safety Factors about Driven Pile Using the Results of Static Loading Test on the Ultimate State (극한상태의 정재하시험결과를 이용한 타입말뚝의 안전율 적용성 평가)

  • Ki, Wan-Seo;Park, Noh-Hwan;Kim, Sun-Hak
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.441-457
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    • 2009
  • This study estimated ultimate load by the determination methods based on ultimate load, yield load and settlement using experimental data from static load tests that applied load to driven piles used in sandy grounds at home and overseas until failure appeared markedly. Estimated ultimate load was normalized with actually measured failure load, and was compared among the determination methods according to the characteristics of pile. In addition, I have identified to the determination methods suitable for estimating ultimate load, and reevaluated the safety factor when determining allowable load. From the results of this study were drawn conclusions as follows. Among ultimate loads estimated by the ultimate-load-based determination methods, the value interpreted by Chin's method tended to overestimate actual measurements, and B. Hansen 80% standard and the stability plot method were considered most reliable as their results were closest to actual measurements. According to the results of this study, in calculating the allowable load, if the safety factor to be applied to failing load obtained by the method of determining extreme load is converted to the safety factor applied to the Standards for Structure Foundation Design, a value larger than 3.0 should be applied except the B. Hansen 90% method, and a value larger than 2.0 should be applied in the methods of determining yield load. In addition, if the safety factor to be applied to load obtained by the settlement standard is converted based on safety factor 3.0 for extreme load, a value smaller than 3.0 should be applied to the total settlement standard and the net settlement standard.

Real-Time Bus Reconfiguration Strategy for the Fault Restoration of Main Transformer Based on Pattern Recognition Method (자동화된 변전소의 주변압기 사고복구를 위한 패턴인식기법에 기반한 실시간 모선재구성 전략 개발)

  • Ko Yun-Seok
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.11
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    • pp.596-603
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    • 2004
  • This paper proposes an expert system based on the pattern recognition method which can enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of real-time bus reconfiguration strategy for the transfer of faulted load when a main transformer fault occurs in the automated substation. The minimum distance classification method is adopted as the pattern recognition method of expert system. The training pattern set is designed MTr by MTr to minimize the searching time for target load pattern which is similar to the real-time load pattern. But the control pattern set, which is required to determine the corresponding bus reconfiguration strategy to these trained load pattern set is designed as one table by considering the efficiency of knowledge base design because its size is small. The training load pattern generator based on load level and the training load pattern generator based on load profile are designed, which are can reduce the size of each training pattern set from max L/sup (m+f)/ to the size of effective level. Here, L is the number of load level, m and f are the number of main transformers and the number of feeders. The one reduces the number of trained load pattern by setting the sawmiller patterns to a same pattern, the other reduces by considering only load pattern while the given period. And control pattern generator based on exhaustive search method with breadth-limit is designed, which generates the corresponding bus reconfiguration strategy to these trained load pattern set. The inference engine of the expert system and the substation database and knowledge base is implemented in MFC function of Visual C++ Finally, the performance and effectiveness of the proposed expert system is verified by comparing the best-first search solution and pattern recognition solution based on diversity event simulations for typical distribution substation.

Bonding between high strength rebar and reactive powder concrete

  • Deng, Zong-Cai;Jumbe, R. Daud;Yuan, Chang-Xing
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.411-421
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    • 2014
  • A central pullout test was conducted to investigate the bonding properties between high strength rebar and reactive powder concrete (RPC), which covered ultimate pullout load, ultimate bonding stress, free end initial slip, free end slip at peak load, and load-slip curve characteristics. The effects of varying rebar buried length, thickness of protective layer and diameter of rebars on the bonding properties were studied, and how to determine the minimum thickness of protective layer and critical anchorage length was suggested according the test results. The results prove that: 1) Ultimate pull out load and free end initial slip load increases with increase in buried length, while ultimate bonding stress and slip corresponding to the peak load reduces. When buried length is increased from 3d to 4d(d is the diameter of rebar), after peak load, the load-slip curve descending segment declines faster, but later the load rises again exceeding the first peak load. When buried length reaches 5d, rebar pull fracture occurs. 2) As thickness of protective layer increases, the ultimate pull out load, ultimate bond stress, free end initial slip load and the slip corresponding to the peak load increase, and the descending section of the curve becomes gentle. The recommended minimum thickness of protective layer for plate type members should be the greater value between d and 10 mm, and for beams or columns the greater value between d and 15 mm. 3) Increasing the diameter of HRB500 rebars leads to a gentle slope in the descending segment of the pullout curve. 4) The bonding properties between high strength steel HRB500 and RPC is very good. The suggested buried length for test determining bonding strength between high strength rebars and RPC is 4d and a formula to calculate the critical anchorage length is established. The relationships between ultimate bonding stress and thickness of protective layer or the buried length was obtained.

Analysis of Drawbar Load Acting on Tractor Engine at Maximum Drawbar Power (최대 견인 출력시 트랙터 엔진의 견인 부하 분석)

  • Kim, S.C.;Kim, K.U.;Kim, D.C.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.71-76
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to investigate the load acting on a tractor engine when it delivers the maximum power at drawbar. The results of the drawbar tests on the 5 locally-made and 14 imported tractors conducted at NIAE in 2004, and the 15 tractors tested at OECD test stations in foreign countries were analyzed and presented by the torque load ratio, defined as a ratio of the engine torque load caused by drawbar pull to its full-load capacity, as a function of pull speed. The NIAE test results showed that the torque load ratio increased from 20 to 80% with pull speed less than 5 km/h. At speeds faster than 5 km/h, it was 80${\sim}$110% regardless of the pull speed. However, the OECD test results showed that the torque load ratio was evaluated mostly to be 70${\sim}$90% in the entire pull speed range. The same trend was also shown for the maximum drawbar load. The difference in the torque load ratio may be attributable to bias-ply tires for locally-made and some imported tractors. It is also suggested that the input torque load may be increased safely up to 120% of the full load capacity of the tractor engine for an accelerated life test of tractor transmissions.

Application of Web-based Load Duration Curve System to TMDL Watersheds for Evaluation of Water Quality and Pollutant Loads (수질오염총량제도 유역의 수질 및 부하량 평가를 위한 웹기반 LDC 시스템의 적용)

  • Kang, Hyunwoo;Ryu, Jichul;Shin, Minhwan;Choi, Joongdae;Choi, Jaewan;Shin, Dong Seok;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.689-698
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    • 2011
  • In South Korea, Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) has been enforced since 2004 to restore and manage water quality in the watersheds. However, the appraisal of TMDL in South Korea has lots of weaknesses to establish the plan for recovery of water quality because it just evaluates the target water quality during the particular flow duration interval. In the United States, Load Duration Curve (LDC) method bas been widely used in the TMDL to evaluate the water quality and pollutant loads considering variation of stream flow. In a recent study, web-based Load Duration Curve system was developed to create the LDC automatically and provide the convenience of use. In this study, web-based Load Duration Curve system was applied in the Gapyeongcheon watershed using the daily flow and 8-day interval water quality data, and Q-L Rating Curve was used to evaluate the water quality and pollutant load in the watershed, also. As a result of study, water quality and pollutant load in Gapyeongcheon watershed were met with water quality standard and allocated load in the all flow durations. Web-based Load Duration Curve system could be applied to the appraisal of South Korean TMDL because it can be used to judge the impaired flow duration and build up the plan of load reduction, and it could enhance the publicity. But, web-based Load Duration Curve system should be enhanced through addition of load assessment tools such as Q-L rating curve to evaluate water quality and pollutant load objectively.

A Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis on the Load Monitoring System for a Low Speed Shaft and Rotor Blade of a Wind Turbine (풍력발전기 주축 및 날개 부하 측정시스템의 보정 및 불확실성 해석)

  • Park Moo-Yeol;Yoo Neung-Soo;Nam Yoon-Su
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.30 no.5 s.248
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    • pp.560-567
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    • 2006
  • The exact load measurements for the mechanical parts of a wind turbine are important step both fur the evaluation of a specific wind turbine design and for a certification process. A common method for a mechanical load measurement is using a strain gauge sensing. Two main problems ought to be answered in order for this method to be applied to the wind turbine project. These are strain gauge calibration and non-contact signal transmission from the strain gauge output to a load monitoring system. This paper suggests reliable solutions fer these two problems. A Bluetooth, a short range wireless data communication technology, is used to solve the second problem. The first one, the strain gauge calibration methodology for a load measurement in a wind turbine application, is fully explained in this paper. Various mechanical loadings for a strain gauge calibration in a wind turbine load measurement are introduced and analyzed. Initial experimental results which are obtained from a 1 kW small size wind turbine are analyzed, and the uncertainty problem in estimating mechanical loads using a calibration matrix is fully covered in this paper.

The Experimental Study on Load Sharing Ratio of Group Pile (무리말뚝의 하중분담율에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Kwon, Oh-Kyun;Oh, Se-Bung;Kim, Jin-Bok;Park, Jong-Un
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2005.03a
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2005
  • In this study, the large scale model tests were executed to estimate the Load Sharing Ratio(LSR) of raft in a piled footing under various conditions. The conditions such as the subsoil type, pile length, pile spacing, array type and pile installation method etc. were varied in the pile loading tests about the free-standing group piles and a piled footing. As the results of this study, it was found that there were no differences of the load-settlement curves, along with the pile installation method and subsoil type. The piles supported most of the external load until a yielding load of the piled footing, but the raft supported a considerable load after a yielding load. And it was also found that the LSR didn't be affected by the pile installation method and the subsoil type. As the relative density of sands increased, the LSR decreased. As the pile spacing was wider and the pile length increased, there was a tendancy for the LSR to increase.

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