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Sensitivity analysis of missing mechanisms for the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey (19대 대선 여론조사에서 무응답 메카니즘의 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Seongyong;Kwak, Dongho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2019
  • Categorical data with non-responses are frequently observed in election poll surveys, and can be represented by incomplete contingency tables. To estimate supporting rates of candidates, the identification of the missing mechanism should be pre-determined because the estimates of non-responses can be changed depending on the assumed missing mechanism. However, it has been shown that it is not possible to identify the missing mechanism when using observed data. To overcome this problem, sensitivity analysis has been suggested. The previously proposed sensitivity analysis can be applicable only to two-way incomplete contingency tables with binary variables. The previous sensitivity analysis is inappropriate to use since more than two of the factors such as region, gender, and age are usually considered in election poll surveys. In this paper, sensitivity analysis suitable to an multi-dimensional incomplete contingency table is devised, and also applied to the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey data. As a result, the intervals of estimates from the sensitivity analysis include actual results as well as estimates from various missing mechanisms. In addition, the properties of the missing mechanism that produce estimates nearest to actual election results are investigated.

Design and Implementation of Information Retrieval System Based on Ontology Using Semantic Web (시맨틱 웹을 이용한 온톨로지 기반의 정보검색 시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Seo, Woo-Jin;Rhyu, Kyeong-Taek
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.209-217
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, the purpose of this paper is to lay the foundation for the search system by using and building an online search engine suitable for the search domain and enabling search, conversion, integration and sharing of information. It is to use the ontology to infer hierarchical relationships, deduce objects based on that layer, and extract attributes to search areas that are relevant to the data that the user wants. In order to search for information in this way, the information search system was implemented by entering key words related to 'qualifications'. The implemented system arranged the meaning and relationship of each attribute online so that the general public can search information quickly, easily, and accurately. In addition, the implementation results were compared with two different search engines. Comparable search engines are Naver and Daum, the two major search engines. The search engine of this study, which was built using an ontology suitable for the search domain to perform searches using the semantic web, was evaluated to have excellent results. However, it is thought that a more formalized online location is necessary to increase the accuracy and reliability of search engines and to include more comprehensive categories of search terms.

A study on the number of passengers using the subway stations in Seoul (데이터마이닝 기법을 이용한 서울시 지하철역 승차인원 예측)

  • Cho, Soojin;Kim, Bogyeong;Kim, Nahyun;Song, Jongwoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.111-128
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    • 2019
  • Subways are eco-friendly public transportation that can transport large numbers of passengers safely and quickly. It is necessary to predict the accurate number of passengers in order to increase public interest in subway. This study groups stations on Lines 1 to 9 of the Seoul Metropolitan Subway using clustering analysis. We propose one final prediction model for all stations and three optimal prediction models for each cluster. We found three groups of stations out of 294 total subway stations. The Group 1 area is industrial and commercial, the Group 2 ares is residential and commercial, and the Group 3 area is residential districts. Various data mining techniques were conducted for each group, as well as driving some influential factors on demand prediction. We use our model to predict the number of passengers for 8 new stations which are part of the 3rd extension plan of Seoul metro line 9 opened in October 2018. The estimated average number of passengers per hour is from 241 to 452 and the estimated maximum number of passengers per hour is from 969 to 1515. We believe our analysis can help improve the efficiency of public transportation policy.

Analysis of Load Duration Curve Using Long Time Flow Measurement Data of Kyeongancheon (장기간 유량측정 자료를 이용한 경안천의 부하지속곡선 특성)

  • Noh, Changwan;Kwon, Phil-Sang;Jung, Woo-Seok;Lee, Myung-Gu;Cho, Yong-Chul;Yu, Soonju
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2019
  • Long term flow measurement and water quality analysis data need to determine the target and allowable load for each basin in Total Water Pollution Load Management System (TWPLMS). The Load Duration Curve (LDC) is analyzed the relationship between flow data and water quality, and evaluates the pollutant load characterization by flow conditions. LDC of Kyeongancheon is created by the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) that was analyzed 8-day interval measured flow data from 2006 to 2015 and numeric water quality target in Kyeongancheon. As a result of this study, it is necessary to manage the point source pollutant because the numeric water quality target is not satisfied in the low flows. Also the numeric water quality target has been exceed for four months from March to June of the year and continuous and systematic watershed management is required to satisfy the numeric water quality target.

The Antimicrobial Activity of Fermented Extracts from Korean Dendropanax morbifera (국내 황칠나무 발효 추출물의 항균력 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Yeul;Park, Tae-Hee;Park, Se-Ho;Yang, Seun-Ah;Jhee, Kwang-Hwan
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2019
  • We investigated the fermentation conditions for extracts of leave/branches and sap from Korean Dendropanax morbifera (D. morbifera) using Lactobacillus plantarum (L. plantarum) ilchiwhangchil 1785 and L. plantarum ilchiwhangchil 2020. Log growth phase cultured L. plantarum ilchiwhangchil 1785 and L. plantarum ilchiwhangchil 2020 were used for fermentation. The pH and growth of the microorganisms in broth were monitored during the fermentation period. The results revealed that the optimum fermentation conditions for 20 wt% of leave/branches extracts and 1 wt% of sap extract was 2 days incubation at $37^{\circ}C$. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) method and a disk diffusion assay were used to evaluate the antimicrobial activity of the fermented extracts of the leave/branches and sap against Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The antimicrobial activity increased in all three strains grown on the medium containing fermented extracts of the leave/branches and sap as compared with that of the strains grown on medium containing non fermented extracts. Furthermore, the antimicrobial activity increased in proportion to the contents of the fermented extracts. Our data suggest that fermented extracts of leave/branches and sap of D. morbifera have applications as natural bio functional materials, such as preservatives, cosmetic materials, and natural packaging materials.

Clinical Significance of Preoperative Embolization for Non-Hypervascular Metastatic Spine Tumors

  • Yoo, Sung-Lim;Kim, Young-Hoon;Park, Hyung-Youl;Kim, Sang-Il;Ha, Kee-Yong;Min, Hyung-Ki;Seo, Jun-Yeong;Oh, In-Soo;Chang, Dong-Gune;Ahn, Joo-Hyun;Kim, Yong-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.106-113
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    • 2019
  • Objective : The efficacy of preoperative embolization for hypervascular metastatic spine disease (MSD) such as renal cell and thyroid cancers has been reported. However, the debate on the efficacy of preoperative embolization for non-hypervascular MSD still remains unsettled. The purpose of this study is to determine whether preoperative embolization for non-hypervascular MSD decreases perioperative blood loss. Methods : A total of 79 patients (36 cases of preoperative embolization and 43 cases of non-embolization) who underwent surgery for metastatic spine lesions were included. Representative hypervascular tumors such as renal cell and thyroid cancers were excluded. Intraoperative and perioperative estimated blood losses (EBL), total number of transfusion and calibrated EBL were recorded in the embolization and non-embolization groups. The differences in EBL were also compared along with the type of surgery. In addition, the incidence of Adamkiewicz artery and complications of embolization were assessed. Results : The average age of 50 males and 29 females was $57.6{\pm}13.5$ years. Lung (30), hepatocellular (14), gastrointestinal (nine) and others (26) were the primary cancers. The demographic data was not significantly different between the embolization and the non-embolization groups. There were no significant differences in intraoperative EBL, perioperative EBL, total transfusion and calibrated EBL between two groups. However, intraoperative EBL and total transfusion in patients with preoperative embolization were significantly lower than in non-embolization in the corpectomy group (1645.5 vs. 892.6 mL, p=0.017 for intraoperative EBL and 6.1 vs. 3.9, p=0.018 for number of transfusion). In addition, the presence of Adamkiewicz artery at the index level was noted in two patients. Disruption of this major feeder artery resulted in significant changes in intraoperative neuromonitoring. Conclusion : Preoperative embolization for non-hypervascular MSD did not reduce perioperative blood loss. However, the embolization significantly reduced intraoperative bleeding and total transfusion in corpectomy group. Moreover, the procedure provided insights into the anatomy of tumor and spinal cord vasculature.

Evaluation of Strength and Durability of Casein-cemented Sand (카제인으로 고결된 모래의 강도 및 내구성 평가)

  • Park, Sung-Sik;Woo, Seong-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2019
  • About 3% of Casein is included in milk and it accounts for 80% of milk's protein. It has an adhesive property when mixed with calcium hydroxide and sodium hydroxide solutions. It has been usually used to bond woods under dry condition but becomes weak when exposed to moisture. Such weakness is very critical when casein is applied for soil cementation under groundwater condition. Therefore, this study was aimed to protect such weakness by changing or adding certain ingredients of casein adhesive. Two types of cemented specimens were prepared with Nakdong river sand and tested for unconfined compressive strength and durability. Each specimen was mixed with casein or cement. Ingredients of casein binder suggested by the University of Wisconsin, which is called a standard casein recipe, was also prepared. This study tried 6 different types of casein binder recipe. Among them, one with 30% hydroxide calcium increase and 50% hydroxide sodium decrease compared with the standard casein was most effective. Based on the most effective casein recipe, cemented sand with 1-4% of casein ratio was prepared and tested. The unconfined compressive strength and durability index were 6,253kPa and 92% for the specimen with 4% of casein ratio and 1,500kPa and 62% for the one with 8% of cement ratio. Therefore, casein cemented sand showed better performance. In addition, over 3% of casein cemented sand had over 80% durability index.

The analysis of the operating characteristic for the wideband coaxial line impedance transformer (광대역 동축선로 임피던스 변환회로의 동작 특성 분석)

  • Park, Ung-hee
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.165-172
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    • 2019
  • Using two or more coaxial lines, if one port is connected in series and the other port is connected in parallel, it can be implemented the wideband transmission line transformer(TLT). Because the wideband TLT utilizes the outer conductor of the coaxial line, it is difficult to predict the characteristics. In this paper, based on the analysis for the transfer characteristic(S21) according to the loss of the each line in ${\lambda}/4$-microstrip line TLT, the operating characteristic of the fabricated wideband 4:1 TLT using two $25{\Omega}$-coaxial lines is investigated. The fabricated wideband TLT shows the notch characteristic in which the transfer signal sharply decreases at ${\lambda}/4$ frequency of the coaxial line and has a value within -0.2dB of the transfer characteristic(S21) in $0.06{\sim}0.2{\lambda}$ frequency range of the coaxial line. This transfer characteristics(S21) can change the operating frequency range slightly and set the optimum transfer characteristic(S21) at the desired frequency by changing the length of the microstrip line.

Change of Coastal Upwelling Index along the Southeastern Coast of Korea (동해 남부 연안용승지수의 변화)

  • SHIN, CHANG-WOONG
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2019
  • Long-term trends and recent variations of upwelling index (UI), which affects significantly ecosystem in southwestern part of the East Sea, were investigated. The UI was calculated with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from January 1948 to September 2018. The mean UI has positive value that causes upwelling in April to August with a peak in July. The long-term reducing trend of UI was in statistically significant in June and July, and the sum of UI in May, June and July also showed same result. Through the atmospheric pressure analysis around the Korean peninsula, it was found that the trend of the UI was the influence of the pressure change trend in the northwestern region ($35-50^{\circ}N$, $114-129^{\circ}E$) of the southwestern part of the East Sea. Investigating UI in recent 7 years from 2012 to 2018, it was revealed that the UI was bigger than 3 times of standard deviation in July 2013. This was result from the sea level pressure difference became larger in the southwestern part of the East Sea than normal year due to the lowered air pressure in the northeastern region of China and the strengthened high air pressure of western peripheral of the North Pacific High. On the other hand, the UI in July 2018 was negative when the impact of the North Pacific High and the low air pressure in the northeastern China was weak. Due to the decreasing trend of UI and its large year-to-year variation in southwestern part of the East Sea, continuous monitoring is necessary to know the influence of coastal upwelling on the ecosystem.

Geometric Effects of Compartment Opening on Fuel-Air Mixing and Backdraft Behavior (개구부의 기하학적 형상이 구획실의 연료-공기 혼합특성 및 백드래프트 거동에 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Suim;Oh, Chang Bo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.30-38
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    • 2019
  • Mixing characteristics and backdraft dynamics were investigated using large eddy simulation for compartments initially filled with methane fuel. Four different opening geometries, i.e. conventional door opening case (Door) and the cases where horizontal door was implemented on the upper ($Slot_U$), middle ($Slot_M$) and lower part ($Slot_L$) of side wall, were considered in the simulations. For cases without ignition, the amounts of inflow oxygen and outflow fuel from the compartment opening were, from largest to smallest, Door > $Slot_U$ ~ $Slot_M$ > $Slot_L$. However, the fuel and oxygen were the best mixed for the $Slot_U$ case while the fuel and oxygen were not well mixed and in relatively separated two layers for the $Slot_L$ case. The global equivalence ratio defined by the amounts of fuel and oxygen in the compartment was not correlated reasonably with the peak pressure of backdraft. The peak pressure during backdraft was the highest for the $Slot_U$ case, a well mixed condition of fuel and air, and backdraft was not found for the $Slot_L$ where the pressure rise was not so high due to the mixing status. The peak pressures for the Door and $Slot_M$ cases were in between Door and $Slot_L$ cases. The peak pressure during backdraft was well correlated with the total amount of heat release until the instance of backdraft occurrence.