• Title/Summary/Keyword: 95% 신뢰구간

Search Result 358, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Seepage Characteristics of Embedded Rock Layer Under the Earth Fill (성토제 하부에 매설된 사석층의 침투특성)

  • Lee Haeng-Woo;Chang Pyoung-Wuck
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.8
    • /
    • pp.63-72
    • /
    • 2005
  • Rocks are dumped to soft marine ground in order to improve trafficability and construction conditions in the tideland reclamation construction sites. Though this rock layer under earth fill has caused in a serious seepage problems after construction, seepage behaviors of this embankment structure is not correctly investigated. Water flow through rock layers is, in general, known as Non-Darcy's flow. However, the embedded rock layer under earth fill is not known whether its flow is governed by Darcy's or Non-Darcy's law. Therefore, a numerical analysis, laboratory model test and filed investigations were performed for analyzing the those seepage characteristics in this research. Results show that there is significance of $95\%$ of confidence between observed heads and seepage rates, and the calculated ones by SAMTLE which is developed under the assumption that the water flows through the two-layer system obey the Darcy's flow. And after operating the hydraulic gradient(i) of $0.10\~0.55$ upon laboratory model, these seepage characteristics of the embedded rock layer show that Reynolds Numbers are less than 10 and the relationship between these velocities of rock layer(v) and hydraulic gradients(i) is linearly proportional with more than 0.79 of the coefficient of correlation $(R^2)$. And the Reynolds Number of the velocity calculated by the relation of v=ki in the embedded rock layer of OO sea dike is $1\~6$. It shows also laminar flow. Based on these results, it is concluded that the seepage characteristics of embedded rock layer under earth fill can be laminar and Darcy's flow.

Nonlinear Autoregressive Modeling of Southern Oscillation Index (비선형 자기회귀모형을 이용한 남방진동지수 시계열 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.39 no.12 s.173
    • /
    • pp.997-1012
    • /
    • 2006
  • We have presented a nonparametric stochastic approach for the SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) series that used nonlinear methodology called Nonlinear AutoRegressive(NAR) based on conditional kernel density function and CAFPE(Corrected Asymptotic Final Prediction Error) lag selection. The fitted linear AR model represents heteroscedasticity, and besides, a BDS(Brock - Dechert - Sheinkman) statistics is rejected. Hence, we applied NAR model to the SOI series. We can identify the lags 1, 2 and 4 are appropriate one, and estimated conditional mean function. There is no autocorrelation of residuals in the Portmanteau Test. However, the null hypothesis of normality and no heteroscedasticity is rejected in the Jarque-Bera Test and ARCH-LM Test, respectively. Moreover, the lag selection for conditional standard deviation function with CAFPE provides lags 3, 8 and 9. As the results of conditional standard deviation analysis, all I.I.D assumptions of the residuals are accepted. Particularly, the BDS statistics is accepted at the 95% and 99% significance level. Finally, we split the SOI set into a sample for estimating themodel and a sample for out-of-sample prediction, that is, we conduct the one-step ahead forecasts for the last 97 values (15%). The NAR model shows a MSEP of 0.5464 that is 7% lower than those of the linear model. Hence, the relevance of the NAR model may be proved in these results, and the nonparametric NAR model is encouraging rather than a linear one to reflect the nonlinearity of SOI series.

Implementation Techniques for the Seafarer's Human Error Assessment Model in a Merchant Ship: Practical Application to a Ship Management Company (상선 선원의 인적과실 평가 모델 구축기법: 선박관리회사 적용 실례)

  • Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
    • /
    • v.33 no.3
    • /
    • pp.181-191
    • /
    • 2009
  • In general, seafarer's human error is considered to be the preponderant muse for the majority of maritime transportation accidents in a merchant ship. The implementation techniques for Human Error Model (HEM) to assess possible accident risk by deck officers including captain, chief officer, second mate and third mate are described in this study. The scope of this work is focused to 642 deck officers in the ship management company with 130 vessels. At first, HEM can be constructed through the statistical analysis and expert's brainstorming process with human data to 642 deck officers. Then the variables $\upsilon$ for the human factors, the evaluation level EP($\upsilon$) for $\upsilon$, the weight $\alpha$ of $\upsilon$, and the title weight $\beta$ of each deck officers can be decided. In addition, through the analysis of ship's accident history, the accident causation ratios by human error ${\gamma}_H$ and by external error ${\gamma}_B$ can be found as 0.517(51.7%) and 0.483(48.3%), respectively. The correlation coefficients to $\upsilon$ are also shown significant for a 95% confidence interval (p < 0.05) for each coefficient. And the validity of HEM is also surveyed by the analysis of normal probability distribution of risk level RL to each deck officer.

A Study on the Long-Term Variations of Annual Maximum Surge Heights at Sokcho and Mukho Harbors (속초와 묵호항의 연간 최대해일고의 장기간 변동성에 대한 고찰)

  • Kwon, Seok-Jae;Moon, Il-Ju;Lee, Eun-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.20 no.6
    • /
    • pp.564-574
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study investigates a long-term variation of annual maximum surge heights(AMSH) and main characteristics of high surge events, which is influenced by the global warming and intensifying typhoons, using sea level data at Sokcho and Mukho tidal stations over 34 years ($1974{\sim}2007$). It is found that the there is a longterm uptrend of the AMSH at Sokcho (8.3 cm/34yrs) and at Mukho (8.7 cm/34yrs), which is significant within 95% confidence level based on the linear regression. The statistical analysis reveals that 53% of the AMSH occurs during typhoon's event in both tidal stations and the highest surge records are mostly produced by the typhoon. It is concluded that the uptrend in the AMSH is attributed by the increasing typhoon activities globally as well as locally in Korea due to the increased sea surface temperature in tropical oceans. The continuous efforts monitering and predicting the extreme surge events in the future warm environments are required to prevent the growing storm surge damage by the intensified typhoon.

Factors Associated with Self-rated Health Status for the Elderlies in Urban Areas (일부 도시지역 노인들의 주관적 건강상태와 관련 요인)

  • Lee, Hu-Yeon;Baek, Jong-Tae;Cho, Young-Chae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.10
    • /
    • pp.569-581
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to determine factors affecting self-rated health status among the elderly in urban areas. The study subjects were 390 persons aged 65 years and older who had lived more than 5 years in D city. Interviews from the questionnaire were conducted from June through August 2016. The distribution of self-rated health status was rated in terms of dependent variables, with odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals calculated using unconditional logistic models. As a result, 67.2% of the study subjects answered that they were healthy, whereas 32.8% were unhealthy. In the logistic regression analysis, disability and lowered IADL greatly lowered self-rated health status. The group without an occupation, living expenses from governmental subsidies, frequency of relative contents is seldom, anxiety is high, subjective sleep quality is low, satisfaction of daily life is low, had low levels of self-rated health status. Above results suggest that the self-rated health status of the elderly in urban areas is closely related to sociodemographic characteristics, physical health status, social activity participation, and psychosocial factors.

Validation and Uncertainty Evaluation of an Optimized Analytical Method Using HPLC Applied to Canthaxanthin, a Food Colorant (식품 색소 Canthaxanthin의 HPLC 최적 분석법 확인 및 타당성과 측정불확도 평가)

  • Suh, Hee-Jae;Kim, Kyung-Su;Hong, Mi-Na;Lee, Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
    • /
    • v.45 no.3
    • /
    • pp.342-351
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study was carried out to develop an optimized analytical method using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) applied to canthaxanthin, which is not yet designated as a food colorant in Korea, as well as to perform validation and uncertainty evaluation of this method. Official methods of AOAC, UK, and Japan with HPLC-UV detection were evaluated for the analysis of canthaxanthin by comparison of linearity, resolution, selectivity, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantitation (LOQ), accuracy, precision, recovery, inter-laboratory tests, and uncertainty measurement. The calibration curves showed high linearity with an $R_2$ value of over 0.999 for canthaxanthin standard solutions in all three official methods. The official method of Japan exhibited the best results in terms of resolution and selectivity, including the lowest LOD and LOQ. The average coefficients of variation were calculated as less than five of three institutes with a precision value less than 1, accuracy near 100%, and recovery ratio between $100{\pm}10%$. The expanded uncertainty for canthaxanthin was estimated to be $39.5{\pm}5.29mg/kg$ (95% confidence level, k=2), and the uncertainty of measurement was 13.4%. In this study, official methods of canthaxanthin were compared and the validities verified. The results will be further applied to establish an authorized analytical method for canthaxanthin in Korea.

A Convergence Study on association of Internet Use Time with Perceived Status in Adolescents (청소년 인터넷 사용시간이 청소년 주관적 상태에 미치는 영향에 대한 융합연구)

  • Baek, Seung Hee;Kim, Ji hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
    • /
    • v.9 no.11
    • /
    • pp.153-159
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to grasp the internet use time that young people use for purposes other than learning purpose, to grasp the perceived status of the youth according to internet use time and to grasp the interrelationships of them. Using the 2016 youth health behavior online survey, the odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of perceived status according to internet use time were calculated by binary logistic regression analysis. The main results are as follows. In perceived health and perceived oral health the odds ratios of perceived who feel that they are perceived and unhealthy as the time spent using the Internet increased significantly compared to those who did not use the Internet for learning purposes. In the perceived body type, the odds ratio of being overweight increased significantly with longer internet use time. The odds ratios of perceived happiness were 1.19 times (CI = 1.10-1.30) higher than the perceived expectation of unhappiness when using the Internet for over 300 minutes. The use of the internet for a long time other than the purpose of learning may have a negative effect on the health and happiness of the youth, so we think that the recommended time for using the internet is necessary.

Patterns and Characteristics of Corrugated Stainless Steel Tubing for a Yellow Insulation Ring Type by Artificially Deteriorated (인위적으로 열화된 황색절연링형 금속플렉시블호스의 패턴 및 특성)

  • Lee, Jang-Woo;Choi, Chung-Seog
    • Fire Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.32 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1-6
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study is to analyze the characteristics of the yellow insulation ring type of the CSST used for tubing when it is artificially deteriorated and damaged by burning. The CSST for tubing consists of a tube, protective coating, nut, yellow insulation ring, packing, and socket. In addition, it is thought that a yellow insulation ring and rubber packing were used to connect the tube and socket in order to improve the airtightness and insulation performance. The result of the verification of the data acquired from the tests in the 95% confidence interval shows that the Anderson-Darling (AD) and P value were analyzed to be 0.945 and 0.015, respectively. This confirms that the test data of the CSST for tubing is reliable. The analysis of the arithmetic mean of the insulation resistance of a CSST showed that the CSST damaged by burning by a torch, and the one damaged by electrical burning, was $16.7k{\Omega}$ (the greatest relatively) and $208{\Omega}$ (the lowest), respectively, while it was $1.72k{\Omega}$ in the case of a normal product. Therefore, the analysis result of the insulation resistance of the CSST collected from the scene of a fire can be utilized to examine the cause of damage by burning. In addition, it was found that when the maximum current of 97 A was applied to the CSST for about 5 s using a Primary Current Injection Test System (PCITS) the protective film and insulation ring of the CSST has no difference from that of a normal product. However, a part of the metal tube was melted.

Convergence Effects of Proprioceptive Neuromuscular Facilitation on Dynamic Balance in Chronic Stroke : A Meta-Analysis (고유수용성신경근촉진법이 만성 뇌졸중 환자의 동적 균형에 미치는 융복합적 효과: 메타분석)

  • Park, Se-Ju;Lee, So-In;Jung, Ho-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.275-284
    • /
    • 2021
  • The study attempted to systematically and comprehensively analyze individual studies in which proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF) was performed with chronic stroke patients. Selection criteria included type of participants (stroke patients), intervention (PNF), comparison (intervention group or non-intervention group), outcomes (effect on dynamic balance), and study design (randomized controlled trial). We searched seven literature databases, and selected 17 papers that met our selection criteria. For meta-analysis, effect size of each individual study was extracted using the R project for Statistical computing version 4.0.3. Rob 2.0 tool, developed by the Cochrane group, was used to evaluate the quality of each individual study. The overall effect size PNF with dynamic balance was 0.59 (95% CI=0.41-1.77), which was significantly different than the median effect size (p<0.05). The sub-group for dynamic balance was analyzed, for effect sizes of BBS (0.50), TUG (0.78), and FRT (0.51). Thus, PNF intervention has a positive impact on improve of dynamic balance by chronic stroke patients.

The Policy Effect of Minimum Housing Standards: Differences-in-Differences Estimation (최저주거기준 설정의 정책 효과: 이중차분법 추정)

  • Yi, Gunmin
    • 한국사회정책
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.25-59
    • /
    • 2016
  • This paper analyses the policy effect of minimum housing standards, using the fact that Seoul set the minimum housing standards in 1998. Because the whole country except Seoul did not set the minimum housing standards in 1998, we could find this situation as a quasi-experiment. In order to identify the policy effect of minimum housing standards, I compare decreasing amounts in the number of households below the threshold between Seoul and comparison regions from 1995 to 2000, using Differences-in-Differences method. I draw estimate of one-to-one comparison, using Gyeonggi province as a comparison region, and OLS estimate, utilizing the whole nation except Seoul as a comparison region, respectively, and compare two estimates. The former and the latter suggest that the setting of Seoul minimum housing standard in 1998 account for decreasing the number of households under the minimum housing standard, by about 216,638 and 325,149, respectively. The latter is statistically significant at the 0.001 level and the former is in the 95% confidence level of the latter. Therefore we could conclude that the setting of minimum housing standards contributes significantly to achieve the policy objectives, a decrease in the number of households, which are below the threshold.