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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

A Study on Electron Dose Distribution of Cones for Intraoperative Radiation Therapy (수술중 전자선치료에 있어서 선량분포에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Wee-Saing;Ha, Sung-Whan;Yun, Hyong-Geun
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1992
  • For intraoperative radiation therapy using electron beams, a cone system to deliver a large dose to the tumor during surgical operation and to save the surrounding normal tissue should be developed and dosimetry for the cone system is necessary to find proper X-ray collimator setting as well as to get useful data for clinical use. We developed a docking type of a cone system consisting of two parts made of aluminum: holder and cone. The cones which range from 4cm to 9cm with 1cm step at 100cm SSD of photon beam are 28cm long circular tubular cylinders. The system has two 26cm long holders: one for the cones larger than or equal to 7cm diamter and another for the smaller ones than 7cm. On the side of the holder is an aperture for insertion of a lamp and mirror to observe treatment field. Depth dose curve. dose profile and output factor at dept of dose maximum. and dose distribution in water for each cone size were measured with a p-type silicone detector controlled by a linear scanner for several extra opening of X-ray collimators. For a combination of electron energy and cone size, the opening of the X-ray collimator was caused to the surface dose, depths of dose maximum and 80%, dose profile and output factor. The variation of the output factor was the most remarkable. The output factors of 9MeV electron, as an example, range from 0.637 to 1.549. The opening of X-ray collimators would cause the quantity of scattered electrons coming to the IORT cone system. which in turn would change the dose distribution as well as the output factor. Dosimetry for an IORT cone system is inevitable to minimize uncertainty in the clinical use.

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Quality properties of fermented mugworts and the rapid pattern analysis of their volatile flavor components via surface acoustic wave (SAW) based electronic nose sensor in the GC system (발효 인진쑥과 약쑥의 이화학적 품질특성 및 GC와 SAW센서기반 electronic nose에 의한 향기패턴의 신속분석)

  • Song, Hyo-Nam
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.554-563
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    • 2013
  • The changes in quality properties and nutritional components for two mugworts, namely, Artemisia capillaris Thumberg Artemisiae asiaticae Nakai fermented by Bacillus strains were characterized followed by rapid pattern analysis of volatile flavor compounds through the SAW-based electronic nose sensor in the GC system. After fermentation, the pH has remarkably decreased from 6.0~6.4 to 4.6~5.1 and there has been a slight change in the total soluble solids. The L (lightness) and b (yellowness) values in the Hunter's color system significantly decreased, whilst the a (redness) value increased via fermentation. The HPLC analysis demonstrated that the total amino acids increased in quantity and the essential amino acids were higher in the A. asiaticae Nakai than in the A. capillaris Thumberg, specially with high contents of glutamic and aspartic acid. After fermentation, the monounsaturated fatty acid increased in the A. asiaticae Nakai and the polyunsaturated fatty acids increased in the A. capillaris Thumberg. While the total polyphenol contents have not been affected by fermentation, the total sugar contents have dramatically decreased. Scopoletin, which is one of the most important index components in mugworts, was highly abundant in the A. capillaris Thumberg; however, it was not detected in the A. asiaticae Nakai. Small pieces of plant tissue in the surface microstructure were found in the fermented mugworts through the use of the scanning electron microscope (SEM). Volatile flavor compounds via electronic nose showed that the intensity of several peaks has increased and additional seven flavor peaks have been produced after fermentation. The VaporPrintTM images demonstrated a notable difference in flavors between the A. asiaticae Nakai and A. capillaris Thumberg, and the fermentation enabled the mugworts to produce subtle differences in flavor.

A Study on the IADL Affecting Subjective Health Index of the Aged in Some Area (일부지역(一部地域) 노인(老人)들의 주체적(主體的) 건강수준(健康水準)에 영향을 미치는 IADL에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Keun-Jo;Park, Heung-Ki;Koon, Hyeok-Su;Bae, Soo-Chan
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Orthopedic Manual Physical Therapy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.29-50
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    • 2001
  • This research have been made to define how the IADL (Instrumental Activity of Daily Living) performance and the subjective health index of the Aged are affected by their residential circumstance, gender and age, and how deeply these two factors are related and interact. For the period of June 1 to July 31, 2000, we had conducted a questionnaire and direct interview with 693 persons over age sixty-five (65) in Daejon and in other adjacent area, grouping into three different residential types The Aged living at home, The Aged living at welfare facilities and The Aged living alone, and studied on how the IADL performance and the subjective health index of the Aged are influenced and interact as per their characteristics, daily activity and mentality. We had analyzed all the data obtained through this research by the method of : - analysis of frequency as per specific factors by SPSS 1O.0/PC+, - $x^2$ test, - t-test, - ANOVA, - multiple regression analysis by factors. The research concludes followings : a. It appears that the three (3) factors such as gender, age and residential circumstance of the Aged deeply affect the IADL performance and subjective health index of the Aged. (p<0.01) b. With regard to IADL performance of the Aged by the gender, it was analyzed that the female-Aged gains 23.8 point on average, which shows the performance of the female-Aged is less independent. (p<0.01). In addition, it was also found that the IADL performance is becoming less and less independent following their age increasing. In analyzing IADL performance by the residential type, it appears that the Aged living at welfare facilities gains the lowest 21.5 points and is least independent. It was also found that the Aged living at welfare facilities need some assistances from others for their performing IADL. (20-24 point) (p<0.001) c. With regard to the subjective health index of the all-Aged participated in this research, the analysis indicates 8.8 point and this is considered as a point of general standard (7-10 point). In analyzing this index by the gender, the female-Aged gains only 8.6 point which explains a lot of female-Aged consider they are not really healthy. (p<0.001) In analyzing this index by the residential type, the Aged living at welfare facilities and the Aged living alone gain the comparatively lower point, - respectively 8.4 point for the Aged living at welfare facilities and 8.8 point for the Aged living alone. The Aged living at these two residential types express they are obviously in a bad situation of health. (p<0.001) d. With regard to the factors affecting the IADL performance and the subjective health index of the Aged, it was analyzed that the IADL performance can largely be affected by the factors such as depression, frequency of going-out and age rising, and that the subject health index can also deeply be affected by depression, pain and by how much they are satisfied with their current living conditions. e. It was analyzed that the interacting between the IADL performance and the subjective health index is not that strong but even weak. As a result, we were able to conclude that the IADL performance is less independent in case of the female-Aged, the Aged living at welfare facilities, and following the age rising. As for the subjective health state the Aged themselves are aware of, we concluded that the female-Aged, the Aged living at welfare facilities and the Aged living alone, are more critical about their health. From this research, we were able to realize that, when the OMT (Orthopedic Manual Therapy) needed, the physical therapists are really required to have a correct and cautious understanding of the situation in which the aged persons are, and take care of them with more concerns and more improved treatment.

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Physicochemical and Sensory Characteristics of Sesame Oils Manufactured in Korea, Japan and China (한국(韓國), 일본(日本), 중국(中國) 삼개국(三個國) 참기름의 이화학적(理化學的) 특성(特性) 및 궁능적(宮能的) 특성(特性))

  • Kim, Hyeon-Wee;Lee, Min-Jung;Kim, Ki-Hong
    • Proceedings of the EASDL Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.107-129
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    • 2004
  • Sesame oil has been popular for hundreds of years in Korea because of its pleasant flavor and health benefits and has been studied for its antioxidant properties and flavor preferences attributed to its manufacturing methods. The objective of this study was to investigate the qualitative properties of six commercial sesame oils (3 Korean, 2 Japanese, 1 Chinese), The fatty acids in the oil are composed of two main acids oleic acid and linoleic acid with a P/S ratio of 4.99${\sim}$5.73. Of the tocopherol isomers, ${\gamma}$-toc ranged from 23.14 to 34.85mg/100g. Lignan such as sesamin(322.91${\sim}$689.39ppm) and sesamolin (62.19${\sim}$289.82 ppm) is found predominantly in sesame oil. Sesamol (8.52${\sim}$51.21 ppm) was significantly different depending on manufacturer, observed as greatest in the Korean and least in the Japanese products. The induction period was longest in order of the Korean, Chinese, and then Japanese product. The red and yellow values in Lovibond color were highest in the Korean and lowest in the Japanese product. The major volatile compounds (in order of content) were pyrazines, phenols, aldehydes, and then furans and contained a small amount of pyrroles, thiazoles and indoles. The levels of total volatiles were greatest in the Korean and least in the Japanese product. The most abundant volatiles in the Korean product were pyrazines, whereas phenols were higher in the Chinese product compared to the others. From these results, the relationships among pyrazines, sesamol, yellowness and induction period showed positive, respectively. In sensory evaluation, Korean panelists preferred, in order, the Korean, Japanese, and then the Chinese product in strength of and preference for the sesame flavor, also ranking it best in overall acceptance. Japanese panelists found similarities in the Korean and Japanese products and gave an equal level of preference for the sesame flavor and overall acceptance. On the other hand, Chinese panelists preferred the Japanese product in strength and sesame flavor rating it best on overall acceptance.

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Quality Characteristics of Jeung-Pyun Prepared with Milk (우유 첨가에 따른 증편의 품질 선택)

  • Jang, Jung-Sun;Park, Young-Sun
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.311-321
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    • 2008
  • In order to improve the insufficient protein content of Jeung-Pyun with respect to sitology, as well as its fermentation process, this study prepared Jeung-Pyun doughs containing 0, 5, 10, 15, and 20 g of milk, respectively, and examined their mechanical and functional characteristics. The internal structure of the Jeung-Pyun was observed by SEM. With regard to color, the L-value increased with increasing amounts of added milk, and the highest value (65.43) occurred in the group containing 20 g of added milk; however, there were no significant differences among groups. The group containing 20 g of added milk also presented the highest a-value, and the samples with added milk had higher b-values than the control. At 8 hours of fermentation, the 10 g- and 15 g-added milk groups had viscosities of 5726.67 and 6600 respectively; viscosity increased with increasing amounts of milk, and the added-milk groups had significantly higher values than the control group. Hardness also increased with increasing amounts of added milk. However, there were no significant differences in resilience and cohesive power among the groups. The groups containing 5 and 10 g of added milk had the lowest cohesion and break values. For appearance, the group without added milk had the whitest color. Pore size decreased and showed less uniformity as the amount of added milk increased. The unique tackju aroma of Jeung-Pyun decreased significantly as the level of added milk increased, and the 20 g addition presented the lowest value. The 10 g-added milk group had the highest level of sweetness, and sourness increased with increasing amounts of added milk. For softness, the control group was estimated as slightly softer than the added-milk groups. The stickiest sample was generally preferred when considering taste, white color, and sweetness. Among the quality characteristics, having greater stickiness, resilience, moisture, and softness was better in terms of chewing. Overall, the size of the Jeung-Pyun containing 10 g of milk was even and well-developed.

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Effect of High Purity β-1.3/1.6-Glucan on Macrophages, Natural Killer Cells, and T Cell-Mediated Factors (고순도 β-1.3/1.6-Glucan이 대식세포 및 자연살해세포와 T 세포면역계에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwon, Hanol;Lee, Minhee;Park, Soo-Jeung;Lee, Dasom;Kim, Hyesook;Lee, Jeongmin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.45 no.11
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    • pp.1564-1570
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    • 2016
  • The present study investigated the immunomodulatory effects of high-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan on macrophages, natural killer (NK) cells, and T cell-mediated factors. Effect of high-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan on cytotoxicity in macrophages was investigated. Using macrophages, cytotoxicity of high-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan was evaluated by MTT assay. We treated high-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan at concentrations of 10, 50, 100, 150, 200, and $250{\mu}g/mL$ in macrophages. High-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan did not affect macrophage viability. Phagocytic activity was assessed using zymosan. Activity of high-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan on macrophages significantly increased as compared with zymosan. We treated high-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan to murine NK cells co-incubated with YAC-1 cells. High-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan resulted in significantly increased activity of NK cells as compared with the control. In addition, treatment of macrophages with high-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan resulted in significantly increased activity of T cell-mediated cytokine (IL-2, IL-12, $IFN-{\gamma}$, and $TNF-{\alpha}$) levels and CD4+/CD8+ T cells as compared with the control. In conclusion, high-purity ${\beta}$-1.3/1.6-glucan could enhance the immune response through activation of macrophages, NK cells, and T cell-mediated factors.

Antioxidant Activities of Seasoning Sauces Prepared with Geranium thunbergii sieb. et Zucc. and Crataegi fructus and the Quality Changes of Seasoned Pork during Storage (산사와 현초를 이용한 돈육불고기양념의 항산화 활성과 이로 제조한 양념돈육의 품질특성)

  • Lee, Shin-Ho;Jeong, Eun-Ju;Jung, Tae-Sung;Park, La-Young
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.57-63
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    • 2009
  • In this study, seasoning sauces were prepared with Geranium thunbergii sieb. et Zucc. (1%, PGT), Crataegi fructus (1%, PCF) and their combination (0.5% PGT + 0.5% PCF, bPMGC) and then the quality characteristics of the sauces and seasoned pork were investigated. The lightness, redness and 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging activity of the sauces were increased by the addition of Crataegi fructus. Sensory qualities such as taste, color and overall acceptability were scored higher in the sauce prepared with Crataegi fructus than the control. The viable cell counts of pork seasoned with the various sauces were 5.04 CFU/g (control), 4.59 CFU/g (PGT), 3.88 CFU/g (PCF) and 4.38 CFU/g (PMGC) after storage for 15 days at $4^{\circ}C$, respectively. The coliform count of the control pork was below 1.0 CFU/g after storage for 25 days and coliform were not detected in PGT, PCF and PMGC after storage for 10 days at $4^{\circ}C$. The thiobarbitunc acid reaotive substance values of PGT, PCF and PMGC were significantly lower than that of control, but volatile basic nitrogen contents were not significantly different between the treated and untreated pork samples during storage. Cooking loss increased in all treatments during storage for 25 days and their water holding capacity increased during storage for 10 days and decreased thereafter. The lightness, redness and yellowness values of PCF were higher than those of the control. The sensory qualities of PCF, including taste, color and overall acceptability, were significantly improved compared to the control. Finally, the pork seasoned with the sauce containing 1% Crataegi fructus extract had significantly improved shelflife, water holding capacity, inhibition of rancidity, color and sensory quality.

An Experimental Study on Establishing Criteria of Gripping Work in Construction Site (건설 현장 악력 작업안전 기준 설정에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • 손기상;이인홍;최만진;안병준
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.81-95
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    • 1995
  • Now, safety assurance in construction sites should be accomplished by its own organization rather than control of the code or government. It is believed that the safety assurance can be considerably improved by a lecture or an education using the existing theories or literatures up to now, but it is thought that fundamental safety assurance we not able to be accomplished without developing safety devices '||'&'||' equipment or taking fundamental measures, based on the result analyzed from workers behaviors. There are various behaviors of the workers showed in construction site, but only tests for hammerusing works such as form, re-bar, stone workers directly related to the grip strength are mainly performed, investigated and measured here for the study. The above works are similar to power grip, 7th picture on seven items which are categorized for hand grip types(Ammermin 1956 ; Jones ; Kobrick 1958). Measurements of grip strength are commonly taken in anthropometric surveys. They are easy to administer but unfortunately it is rather dubious whether they yield any data that are of interest to the engineer. Very fewer controls of tools are grasped and squeesed studies showed very little overall correlation between grip strength and other measures of bodily strength (Laubach, Kromer, and Thordsen 1972), but hammer-using work which is practically progressed in construction site are mainly influenced with grip strength. According to the investigation on work measurement, it is shown that 77% of form worker are using hammer to be related to grip strength. In this study, it is particularly noticed that wearing safety gloves in construction site is required for workers safety but 20% difference between grip strength with safety gloves and without ones are commonly neglected in the site(Fig. 1). Nevertheless, safety operation with consideration of the above 20% difference is not considered in the construction site. Factors of age, kinds of work, working time, with or without safety gloves are in vestigated '||'&'||' collected at the sites for this study. Test, not at each working hour but at 14 : 00 when the almost all of the workers think the most tired, resulting from the questionaires, also when it is shown on the research report has been performed and compared for main kinds of works : form '||'&'||' re-bar work. Tests were performed with both left SE rightand of the workers simultaneously in construction site using Rand Dynamometer(Model 78010, Lafayette Instrument Co., Indiana, U.S.A) by reading grip strength on the gauge while they are pulling, and then by interviewing on their ages, works, experiences and etc., directly. The above tests have been performed for the dates of 15th march-26th May '95 with consideration of site condition. And even if various factors of ambient temperature on the testing date, working condition, individual worker's habit and worker's condition of the previous ate are concerned with the study. Those are considered as constants in this study. Samples are formwork 53, rebar 62, electrician 5, plumber 4, welding 1 from D construction Co., Ltd, ; formwork 12, re-bar 5, electrician 2, from S construction Co., Ltd, , formwork 78, re-bar 18, plumber 31, electrician 13, labor 48, plumber 31, plasterer 15, concrete placer 6, water proof worker 3, maisony 5 from B construction Co., Ltd. As In the previously mentioned, main aspect to be investigated in this study will be from '||'&'||' re-bar work because grip strength will be directly applied to these two kinds of works ; form '||'&'||' re-bar work, eventhough there are total 405 samples taken. It is thought that a frequency of accident occurrence will be mainly two work postures "looking up '||'&'||' looking down" to be mainly sorted, but this factor is not clarified in this study because It will be needed a lot of work more. Tests has been done at possible large scale of horizontally work-extended sites within one hour in order to prevent or decrease errors '||'&'||' discrepancies from time lag of the test. Additionally, the statistical package computer program SPSS PC+has been used for the study.

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A Study on the Determination of Tramp Freight Rates (부정기선 운임율의 결정에 관한 이론적 고찰)

  • 이종인
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.45-79
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    • 1980
  • The aim of this paper is to analyze the mechanics of price formation in the tramp shipping. For the purpose of this study, the main characteristics of tramp freight rates and the market is examined, and a brief examination of the nature ofthe costs of operation is given which are essential for the understanding of the functioning of shipping firms as well as for the understanding of developments in the tramp freight market. The demand and supply relationships in the market is also analysed in detail. Tramp shipping is an industry that has a market which functions under conditions that are not dissimilar to the theoretical model of perfect competition. However, it does notmean that tramp shipping market is a perfectly competitive market. It is apparent that this realworld competitive system has its imperfections, which means that the market for tramp shipping is near to being a perfectly competitive market on an internaitonal scale and it is freight are therefore subjext to the laws of supply and demand. In theory, the minimum freight rate in the short term is that at which the lowest cost vessels will lay-up in preference to operating, and is equal to the variable costs minus lay-up costs; and this would imply that in all times except those of full employment for ships there is a tendency for newer low-cost, and, probably, faster vessels to be driving the older high-cost vessels in the breaker's yards. In this case, shipowners may be reluctant to lay-up their ships becasue of obligations to crews, or because they would lose credibility with shippers or financiers, or simply because of lost prestige. Mainly, however, the decision is made on strictly economic grounds. When, for example, the total operating costs minus the likely freight earnings are greater than the cost of taking the ship out of service, maintaining it, and recommissioning it, then a ship may be considered for laying-up; shipowners will, in other words, run the ships at freight earnings below operating costs by as much as the cost of laying them up. As described above, the freight rates fixed on the tramp shipping market are subject to the laws of supply and demand. In other words, the basic properties of supply and demand are of significance so far as price or rate fluctuations in the tramp freight market are concerned. In connection with the same of the demand for tramp shipping services, the following points should be brone in mind: (a) That the magnitude of demand for sea transport of dry cargoes in general and for tramp shipping services in particular is increasing in the long run. (b) That owning to external factors, the demand for tramp shipping services is capable of varying sharphy at a given going of time. (c) The demad for the industry's services tends to be price inelastic in the short run. On the other hand the demand for the services offered by the individual shipping firm tends as a rule to be infinitely price elastic. In the meantime, the properties of the supply of the tramp shipping facilities are that it cannot expand or contract in the short run. Also, that in the long run there is a time-lag between entrepreneurs' decision to expand their fleets and the actual time of delivery of the new vessels. Thus, supply is inelastic and not capable of responding to demand and price changes at a given period of time. In conclusion, it can be safely stated that short-run changes in freight rates are a direct result of variations in the magnitude of demand for tramp shipping facilities, whilest the average level of freight rates is brought down to relatively low levels over prolonged periods of time.

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