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Prediction of Distribution Changes of Carpinus laxiflora and C. tschonoskii Based on Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모델링을 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 서어나무 (Carpinus laxiflora)와 개서어나무 (C. tschonoskii)의 분포변화 예측)

  • Lee, Min-Ki;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lee, Chang-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2021
  • Hornbeams (Carpinus spp.), which are widely distributed in South Korea, are recognized as one of the most abundant species at climax stage in the temperate forests. Although the distribution and vegetation structure of the C. laxiflora community have been reported, little ecological information of C. tschonoskii is available. Little effort was made to examine the distribution shift of these species under the future climate conditions. This study was conducted to predict potential shifts in the distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii in 2050s and 2090s under the two sets of climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the spatial distribution of two species using the occurrence data derived from the 6th National Forest Inventory data as well as climate and topography data. It was found that the main factors for the distribution of C. laxiflora were elevation, temperature seasonality, and mean annual precipitation. The distribution of C. tschonoskii, was influenced by temperature seasonality, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal rang. It was projected that the total habitat area of the C. laxiflora could increase by 1.05% and 1.11% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the distributional area of C. tschonoskii could expand under the future climate conditions. These results highlighted that the climate change would have considerable impact on the spatial distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii. These also suggested that ecological information derived from climate change impact assessment study can be used to develop proper forest management practices in response to climate change.

Behavioral Characteristics Investigation of Rack Structure Depending on Forklift Impact Scenarios and Storage Distributions (지게차 충돌 위치 및 보관물류 분포에 따른 선반구조물의 거동특성분석)

  • Ok, Seung-Yong;Kwon, Oh-Yong;Paik, Shin Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2013
  • The statistics of recent accidents in warehouses show that a heavy toll of lives were produced by various accidents, e.g. collision, overturn, fall, slip, exposure to harmful substances or environments, etc. Of significant concern amongst them is the collision, especially the collision between forklift and storage rack structure. Accordingly, this study focuses on behavioral characteristics of rack structure subjected to dynamic impact loading of a forklift. For this purpose, time-domain response analysis has been performed on a standard 2-bay six-story rack structure consisting of columns, beams and bracing members with perforated open section. In order to investigate the most critical scenario, the impact loads are applied in both down-aisle and cross-aisle directions, and the impact locations are also varied along the shelves of the palettes. In order to deal with storage distributions, three types of rack structures are further taken into account: original empty rack structure with no storage, half-loaded rack structure and fully-loaded rack structure. The numerical simulation results demonstrate that the dynamic characteristics of the rack structure are significantly dependent on the distribution of the storage goods and its natural period varies from 0.24sec to 1.06sec, approximately 4.4 times. Further, the parametric studies show that the forklift impact is most critical to the safety of the rack structure when it collides either at the base or at the top of the rack structure.

A Development on Assessment Method of PVC Gloves Used in Pest Control Program (해충제어프로그램에서 사용되는 PVC장갑의 평가방법 개발)

  • Lee, Su-Gil;Lee, Nae-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.21 no.3 s.75
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2006
  • Following a Mediterranean fruit fly outbreak in South Australia, a bait spray program involving the pesticides like malathion(MAL) was carried out. During the application, dermal exposure was considered for the pest controllers wearing PVC gloves. However there is a lack of information about PVC glove performance like break through times and permeation rates with MAL, therefore, a new analytical method for HPLC-UV was developed. A standard permeation test cell was used in this study. From the results of this study, more than 96% solubility of MAL was provided at 30% isopropyl alcohol in distilled water as a collecting media. However, there was significant decomposition of MAL when the solutions were kept at over $50^{\circ}C$ for 2-3 hours. As a mobile phase, 50% acetonitrile water solution (pH 6.0) gave the greater sensitivity compared with other compositions of acetonitrile solution. The arm section of the gloves had shorter breakthrough times and higher permeation rates compared with the palm. There was no malathion solution breakthrough up to 24 hours using the 1% MAL working strength solution. When the temperature was changed from $22{\pm}1^{\circ}C\;to\;37{\pm}1^{\circ}C$, the breakthrough times were decreased by 14.5% on palm and 37.5% on arm, and permeation rates were increased significantly. The findings of this study indicate that further investigations on used gloves, periods of use and varying working conditions like tasks and seasons should be carried out to assess potential worst case scenarios.

The Differential Effects of Cultural Disposition and Need for Cognitive Closure on Framing Effects (문화성향과 종결욕구에 따른 틀효과에서의 차이)

  • Joo, Mijung;Lee, Jaesik
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.173-201
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    • 2013
  • This study aimed to investigate the differential effects of individual's cultural disposition (individualism-collectivism or horizontal-vertical thinking) and need for cognitive closure(NFC) on framing effects. For this purpose, the participants were divided into 4 different cultural disposition groups based on Singelis et al.'s[1] INDCOL scale, and 2 different NFC groups based on Lee's[2] NFC Scale, and then asked to respond on 5 decision making scenarios. The results can be summarized as followings. First, participants preferred risk-avoidant option in gain frame, whereas risk-seeking option in loss frame. Second, there are no difference of cultural disposition on framing effects, but high NFC group showed larger framing effects than low NFC group in loss frame. Third, collectivism and vertical thinking in high NFC condition showed larger framing effects than low NFC condition.

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Association Between Leisure Time Physical Activity, Cardiopulmonary Fitness, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and Cardiovascular Workload at Work in Firefighters

  • Yu, Clare C.W.;Au, Chun T.;Lee, Frank Y.F.;So, Raymond C.H.;Wong, John P.S.;Mak, Gary Y.K.;Chien, Eric P.;McManus, Alison M.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.192-199
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    • 2015
  • Background: Overweight, obesity, and cardiovascular disease risk factors are prevalent among firefighters in some developed countries. It is unclear whether physical activity and cardiopulmonary fitness reduce cardiovascular disease risk and the cardiovascular workload at work in firefighters. The present study investigated the relationship between leisure-time physical activity, cardiopulmonary fitness, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and cardiovascular workload at work in firefighters in Hong Kong. Methods: Male firefighters (n = 387) were randomly selected from serving firefighters in Hong Kong (n = 5,370) for the assessment of cardiovascular disease risk factors (obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, smoking, known cardiovascular diseases). One-third (Target Group) were randomly selected for the assessment of off-duty leisure-time physical activity using the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Maximal oxygen uptake was assessed, as well as cardiovascular workload using heart rate monitoring for each firefighter for four "normal" 24-hour working shifts and during real-situation simulated scenarios. Results: Overall, 33.9% of the firefighters had at least two cardiovascular disease risk factors. In the Target Group, firefighters who had higher leisure-time physical activity had a lower resting heart rate and a lower average working heart rate, and spent a smaller proportion of time working at a moderate-intensity cardiovascular workload. Firefighters who had moderate aerobic fitness and high leisure-time physical activity had a lower peak working heart rate during the mountain rescue scenario compared with firefighters who had low leisure-time physical activities. Conclusion: Leisure-time physical activity conferred significant benefits during job tasks of moderate cardiovascular workload in firefighters in Hong Kong.

Forecasting the Number of GMPCS Subscribers in Korea (범세계위성이동통신(GMPCS) 서비스 국내가입자수 예측에 관한 연구)

  • 주영진;박명철
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.24 no.8A
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    • pp.1115-1125
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    • 1999
  • This paper forecasts the number of GMPCS(Global Mobile Communications by Satellite) subscribers in Korea. Since GMPCS adopts nor only a new tecnology cor proved in the market yet, bot also a global service principle, it's service market involves a great deal of nucertainties in terms of technological and regulatory perspectives. This paper develops a modified diffusion which considers those uncertainties by identifying three environmental group of tactors. The parameters of the model are estimated through a scenario-based approach. By assuming a pessimistic and an optimistic scenarios with three environmental group of factors, the model forecasts 4,000 and 7,000 substcribers in the first year, and then 100,000 and 600,000 subscribers in 2005 respectively. The sensitivity analysis of the model also gives an implication of the future market growth. In the early period, regulatoyu and technological issues are found to be relatively important, but, in the later period, the interconnection issues and price-competitiveness will become increasingly important.

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A Study on Classification of Explosion Hazardous Area for Facilities using Lighter-than-Air Gases (공기보다 가벼운 가스 사용시설의 폭발위험장소 설정방안에 대한 연구)

  • Yim, Ji-Pyo;Chung, Chang-Bock
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.24-30
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    • 2014
  • There have been controversies over whether explosion hazardous area(EHA) should be classified for facilities which use lighter-than-air gases such as city gas, hydrogen and ammonia. Two view points are confronting each other: an economic piont of view that these gases are lighter than air and disperse rapidly, hence do not form EHA upon release into the atmosphere, and a safety point of view that they are also inflammable gases, hence can form EHA although the extent is limited compared to heavy gases. But various standards such as KS, IEC, API, NFPA do not exclude light gases when classifying EHA and present examples of EHA for light gas facilities. This study calculates EHA using the hypothetical volume in the IEC code where the hole sizes required for the calculation were selected according to various nominal pipe sizes in such a way to conform to the EHA data in the API code and HSL. Then, 25 leakage scenarios were suggested for 5 different pipe sizes and 5 operating pressures that cover typical operating conditions of light gas facilities. The EHA for the minimum leakage scenario(25 mm pipe, 0.01MPa pressure) was found to correspond to a hypothetical volume larger than 0.1 $m^3$(medium-level ventilation). This confirms the validity of classifying EHA for facilities using lighter-than-air gases. Finally, a computer program called HACPL was developed for easy use by light gas facilities that classifies EHA according to operating pressures and pipe sizes.

Vietnamese Health Care Providers' Preferences Regarding Recommendation of HPV Vaccines

  • Asiedu, Gladys B;Breitkopf, Carmen Radecki;Kremers, Walter K;Ngo, Quang V;Nguyen, Nguyen V;Barenberg, Benjamin J;Tran, Vinh D;Dinh, Tri A
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.4895-4900
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    • 2015
  • Physician recommendation is an important predictor of HPV vaccine acceptance; however, physician willingness and preferences regarding HPV vaccination may be influenced by factors including patient age, vaccine type, and cost. A cross-sectional survey was administered to a convenience sample of health care providers in Da Nang, Vietnam, to evaluate awareness, perceptions about HPV and HPV vaccines, and willingness to vaccinate a female patient. Willingness to vaccinate was evaluated using a full-factorial presentation of scenarios featuring the following factors: vaccine cost (free vs 1,000,000 VND), patient age (12, 16, or 22 years), and HPV vaccine type (bivalent vs quadrivalent). Responses from 244 providers were analyzed; providers had a mean age of $34{\pm}11.9$ years; a majority were female, married, and had children of their own. Thirty-six percent specialized in obstetrics/gynecology and 24% were providers in family medicine. Of the three factors considered in conjoint analysis, vaccine cost was the most important factor in willingness to vaccinate, followed by patient age, and vaccine type. The most favorable scenario for vaccinating a female patient was when the vaccine was free, the patient was 22 years of age, and the HPV4 vaccine was described. In multivariable analysis, older age, being a physician, being married, and having children were all associated with increased willingness to recommend HPV vaccination (p<0.05). Provider willingness is an important aspect of successful HPV vaccination programs; identifying preferences and biases in recommendation patterns will highlight potential areas for education and intervention.

Investigation of Urban Environmental Quality Using an Integration of Satellite, Ground based measurement data over Seoul, Korea

  • Lee, Kwon-Ho;Wong, Man-Sing;Kim, Young-J.
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.339-351
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    • 2011
  • This study investigates the potentials of satellite, ground measurement data, and geo-spatial information within an urban area for the mapping of the Urban Environmental Quality (UEQ) parameters. The UEQ indicates a complex and various parameters resulting from both human and natural factors, which are greenness, climate, air pollution, the urban infrastructure, and etc. Multi-spectral remote sensing data from the Landsat ETM and TM sensors for the mapping of air pollution by the Haze Optimized Transform (HOT) technique, Urban Heat Island (UHO using the emissivity-fusion method in Seoul from 2000 to 2006 in fine resolution (30m) were analyzed for the estimation of UEQ index. Although the UHI values are similar ($8.4^{\circ}C{\sim}9.1^{\circ}C$) during these years, the spatial coverage of "hot" surface temperature (> $24^{\circ}C$) significantly increased from 2000 to 2006 due to the rapid urban development. Furthermore, high correlations between vegetation index and land surface temperature were achieved with a correlation coefficients of 0.85 (2000), 0.81 (2001), 0.84 (2002), and 0.89 (2006), respectively. It was found that the proposed method was successfully analyzed spatial structure of the UEQ and the scenarios of the best and worst areas within the city were also identified. Based on the quantifiable fine resolution satellite image parameters, UEQ can promote the understanding of the complex and dynamic factors controlling urban environment.

Market Segmented Analysis of Electric Vehicle Purchasing Behavior in Seoul (서울시 전기차 구매행태에 대한 시장분할 분석)

  • HAHN, Jin-Seok;LEE, Jang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we analyzed the electric vehicle (EV) purchasing behavior with market segmentation in Seoul using the binary logit model. For the model estimation, the experimental design of SP survey generated 24 scenarios with purchase price, charging station availability, and driving range of EVs. The results of market segmentation analysis indicated that the owners of subcompact and compact size cars were primarily affected by the purchasing price while those of mid and full size cars were more sensitive to the charging station availability. By housing type, the charging station availability was the most important factor for the residents of apartment while the purchase price was the most important factor to choose the EVs. These results presented that the EV supply strategy of the automobile manufacturer should be diversified according to the marketing target and the expansion of the public charging infrastructure should be the top priority in the government policy.