• Title/Summary/Keyword: 24 scenarios

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The Vulnerability of the Reclaimed Seashore Land Attendant Upon Storm Surge/Coastal Inundation (해일/범람에 따른 해안 매립지의 취약성)

  • Kang, Tae-Soon;Moon, Seung-Rok;Nam, Soo-Yong;Shim, Jae-Seol
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.68-75
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    • 2010
  • Recently, the intensity and frequency of typhoons have been on the increase due to unusual weather phenomena and climate change. In particular, on September 13, 2003, typhoon MAEMI (0314) caused heavy damage in the provinces of Busan and Gyongnam, but also provided an opportunity to perform a variety of studies on storm surge. According to investigation reports on the damage resulting from typhoon MAEMI, the areas where coastal inundation occurred were located in reclaimed land under coastal development. In this study, through an image data analysis of historic and present day typhoons affecting Masan, we found that the inundation damage areas corresponded to reclaimed lands. Therefore, using the area around Busan, including the southeastern coast of Korea where typhoons lead to an increased storm surge risk, we performed a storm surge/inundation simulation, and examined the inundation effect on reclaimed land due to the intensified typhoons predicted for the future by climate change scenarios.

The Effects of a Simulation-Based Education on the Knowledge and Clinical Competence for Nursing Students (시뮬레이션 기반 간호교육이 간호학생의 지식과 임상수행능력에 미치는 효과)

  • Yang, Jin-Ju
    • The Journal of Korean Academic Society of Nursing Education
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.14-24
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to identify the effect of simulation-based education relevant to the care of patients with acute renal failure (ARF) for third-year nursing students. Methods: This study was a non-equivalent control pre-posttest design. Based on the clinical situation scenarios pertaining to patients with ARF, a simulation-based learning module was developed using Human Patient Simulator version 6 (HPS6) manufactured by Medical Education Technologies Inc. The pretest was conducted so as to evaluate the difference in prior knowledge and clinical competence between two groups. The control group consisted of 91 students during the 2010 academic year and the experimental group consisted of 94 students during the 2011 academic year. Data were analysed using SPSS/win 10.1. Results: In the experimental group, knowledge related to care for ARF patients was not significantly increased; however, clinical competence improved significantly for the experimental group. Conclusion: In conclusion, the simulation-based education program was effective in contributing towards the development of clinical competence. Increased development of clinical competence is vital for today's clinical environment where nursing professionals need the necessary knowledge, thinking, and performance skills to meet the needs of the hospital and their patients.

Development of Risk-Appearance Frequency Evaluation Model for Railway Level-Crossing Accidents (철도건널목 사고 위험도-발생빈도 평가모델 개발)

  • Kim, Min-Su;Wang, Jong-Bae;Park, Chan-Woo;Choi, Don-Bum
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.96-101
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

Development of Accident Scenario Models for the Risk Assessment of Railway Casualty Accidents (철도 사상사고 위험도 평가를 위한 사고 시나리오 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Wang, Jong-Bae;Cho, Yun-ok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to develop accident scenario models for the risk assessment of railway casualty accidents. To develop these scenario models, hazardous events and hazardous factors were identified by gathering various accident reports and information. Then, the accident scenario models were built up. Each accident scenario model consists of an occurrence scenario model and a progress scenario model. The occurrence scenario refers to the occurrence process of the event before the hazardous event. The progress scenario means the progress process of the event after the hazardous event. To manage a large amount of accident/incident data and scenarios, a railway accident analysis information system was developed using railway accident scenario models. To test the feasibility of the developed scenario models, more than 800 domestic railway casualty accidents that occurred in 2004 and 2005 were investigated and quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed using the developed information system.

The Study of Adaptable Plant Species according to Warmth Index using RCP 8.5 Scenarios in Cheonan-Si (RCP 8.5 시나리오를 이용하여 온량지수에 따른 천안시 적응 가능한 식물종 연구)

  • Kong, Seok Jun;Shin, Jin Ho;Yang, Keum Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2013
  • This study was proposed to adaptable species according to climate change using warmth index(WI) in Cheonan-Si. RCP 8.5 was used to estimate change of warmth index(WI) depending on climate change in Cheonan-Si. Climatic change of Cheonan-Si was estimated to change from cool temperate forest central zone to warm temperate forest zone. The following plant species will survive within WI change of Cheonan-Si from 2010 to 2050 : 18 species in the tree layer including Quercus serrata, Q. variabilis, Pinus densiflora, Q. acutissima etc.; 28 species in the shrub layer including Rhus trichocarpa, Lindera obtusiloba, Zanthoxylum schinifolium etc.; 24 species in the herb layer including Oplismenus undulatifolius, Carex lanceolata, etc.; 12 species in the vine plants including Smilax china, Cocculus trilobus, etc.

Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Irrigation Requirement in the Nakdong River Basin (기후변화가 낙동강 권역의 논 관개용수 수요량에 미치는 영향)

  • Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2009
  • The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation requirements for Nakdong river basin in Korea have been analyzed. The HadCM3 model outputs for SRES A2 and B2 scenarios and International Water Management Institute $10'{\times}10'$ pixels observed data were used with kriging method. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the GIS. The results showed that the average growing season temperature was projected to increase by $2.2^{\circ}C$ (2050s A2), $0.0^{\circ}C$ (2050s B2), $3.7^{\circ}C$ (2080s A2) and $2.9^{\circ}C$ (2080s B2) from the baseline (1961-1990) value of $21{\circ}C$. The average growing season rainfall was projected to increase by 15.2% (2050s A2), 24.2% (2050s B2), 41.4% (2080s A2) and 16.7% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of 900 mm. Average volumetric irrigation demands were projected to decrease by 3.7% (2050s A2), 7.0% (2050s B2), 10.2% (2080s A2) and 1.4% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of $1.25{\times}10^9\;m^3$. These results can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning in the Nakdong river basin for the future.

Assessment of water quality in an artificial urban canal: A case study of Songdo City in South Korea

  • Ahn, Jungkyu;Na, Yeji;Park, Sung Won
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.582-590
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    • 2019
  • Currently, the waterfront facility was constructed in New Songdo City, South Korea. It has the various water leisure areas and especially an artificial urban canal with filtered seawater by re-circulating flow system. However, due to excessive amount of nutrients from seawater combined with complicated geometry, it is highly vulnerable to deterioration of water quality. In this study, flow characteristics and pollutant transport were analyzed with comprehensive numerical models, MIKE 3 FM and ECO-lab. Based on these numerical results, notable sampling points were selected for field measurements and comparison between modeling and measured results were conducted. In addition, the integrated water quality evaluation index, Water Quality Index was applied to analyze various water quality issues. We also set up scenarios to control the two kinds of water quality factors, dissolved oxygen (DO), and total phosphorus (TP). As a result, the effect of 20% reduction of TP was less than 10% and it was almost ineffective for a year but it was reduced by up to 40% in case of scenario which DO is increased by 20%. Therefore, it was recommended to control the DO concentration, usually by applying re-aeration facility, rather than TP in artificial urban canal with seawater.

A Simulation Analysis for the Shortening of the Patients' Stay Time in the Emergency Department (응급실 체류시간 단축을 위한 시뮬레이션 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Man;Kim, Mi-Yi;Kim, Dong-Hyun;Lee, Jong-Il;Kim, Ki-Man;Lee, Young-Hoon;Kim, Seung-Ho;Park, Yu-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this research is to find the reasons of overcrowding in the emergency department of an hospital, then to shorten the total stay time of patients. The fact that main causes of the overcrowding exist in the process of the emergency department was discovered by analysis of the data. In order to improve these process, simulation model was developed by ARENA 7.0. Staff's service time, staff's organization, process ratio, and patient's waiting time were estimated in the simulation model in consideration of the decision of the patient's course of action. Several scenarios such as the simplification of the process, the setup of dedicated pathology lab, and mixed method were suggested and evaluated. Total stay time of the patients would be reduced up to 28.45%.

Application of the cooperative two-person nonzero-sum game for water resources development in the Tumen river basin (두만강 유역의 합리적인 수자원 개발방안 도출을 위한 2인 비영합 협력게임 적용)

  • Park, Wan-Soo;Lee, Sang-Eun;Park, Hee-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2010
  • This study aims to make a decision about the rational option for a multipurpose dams development of the Tumen river basin so that the adjoining countries will effectively deal with the chronic problems and fully satisfy the fast growing demand of water and power. It has been thus far investigated that the interests between North Korea and China closely depend on the selected option, and they are not well compatible with each other. These situations are defined in terms of the cooperative two-person nonzero-sum game. The Nash bargaining model is then applied to contemplate the rational option, considering two scenarios of economic growth of the North Korea. After analyzing the model, it was expected that 1) two multipurpose dams must be cooperatively developed, and 2) their benefits should be allocated according to demand of each country. The authors finally suggest that a cooperative organisation be established to effectively manage the dams beyond the border of the countries.

Indoor Radon and Lung Cancer: Estimation of Attributable Risk, Disease Burden, and Effects of Mitigation

  • Kim, Si-Heon;Koh, Sang-Baek;Lee, Cheol-Min;Kim, Changsoo;Kang, Dae Ryong
    • Yonsei Medical Journal
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    • v.59 no.9
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    • pp.1123-1130
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Exposure to indoor radon is associated with lung cancer. This study aimed to estimate the number of lung cancer deaths attributable to indoor radon exposure, its burden of disease, and the effects of radon mitigation in Korea in 2010. Materials and Methods: Lung cancer deaths due to indoor radon exposure were estimated using exposure-response relations reported in previous studies. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated to quantify disease burden in relation to premature deaths. Mitigation effects were examined under scenarios in which all homes with indoor radon concentrations above a specified level were remediated below the level. Results: The estimated number of lung cancer deaths attributable to indoor radon exposure ranged from 1946 to 3863, accounting for 12.5-24.7% of 15623 total lung cancer deaths in 2010. YLLs due to premature deaths were estimated at 43140-101855 years (90-212 years per 100000 population). If all homes with radon levels above $148Bq/m^3$ are effectively remediated, 502-732 lung cancer deaths and 10972-18479 YLLs could be prevented. Conclusion: These findings suggest that indoor radon exposure contributes considerably to lung cancer, and that reducing indoor radon concentration would be helpful for decreasing the disease burden from lung cancer deaths.