• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.103-113
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• 2018

In this study, Construction work is mainly done outdoors, so earth works, reinforced concrete works, etc. are Non-Working Days to rainfall. In particular, changes in rainfall due to global warming have made air calculation more difficult. Therefore, when establishing the process plan, the change of the rainfall in the area should be identified and Non-Working Days should be calculated. In this study, the time of rainfall change point was identified using the meteorological 'observation' data from 1960 to 2016 in Incheon and RCP 4.5, 'weather forecast' data from 2018 to 2074, Year rainfall and seasonal rainfall. The results showed that rainfall changed point in 1972, 1988, 2013, 2038, 2050 and 2069. In particular, it has been found that non-working days due to rainfall has big changed point as of 2013, 2038 and 2069.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.36-51
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• 2016

This study assessed urban flood risk using a Bayesian probability statistical method and GIS incorporating a climate change scenario. Risk is assessed based on a combination of hazard probability and its consequences, the degree of impact. Flood probability was calculated on the basis of a Bayesian model and future flood occurrence likelihoods were estimated using climate change scenario data. The flood impacts include human and property damage. Focusing on Seocho-gu, Seoul, the findings are as follows. Current flood probability is high in areas near rivers, as well as low lying and impervious areas, such as Seocho-dong and Banpo-dong. Flood risk areas are predicted to increase by a multiple of 1.3 from 2030 to 2050. Risk assessment results generally show that human risk is relatively high in high-rise residential zones, whereas property risk is high in commercial zones. The magnitude of property damage risk for 2050 increased by 6.6% compared to 2030. The proposed flood risk assessment method provides detailed spatial results that will contribute to decision making for disaster mitigation.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.291-302
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• 2017

The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.27-51
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• 2006

In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.517-517
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• 2022

세계는 기후 위기, Covid-19에 직면함에 따라 물 산업 분야 탄소감축에 대한 목소리가 높아지고 있다. GWI(Global Water Intelligence)에서는 2030 물 분야 탄소감축 목표를 달성하기 위하여 17억 8,500만 달러, 노후자산 교체를 위한 신규 인프라 건설에 40억5600만 달러의 비용이 들 것으로 추산하였다. 이에 본 연구는 국내 물산업의 탄소중립 목표 달성을 위한 물 기업 혁신 전략 마련에 앞서 '영국 물 산업 2050 혁신 전략' 사례를 고찰하였다. '영국 물 산업 2050 혁신 전략'은 물 산업의 변화를 자극하고 장기적으로 고객과 환경, 그리고 국제사회에 이바지하는 것을 목표하고 있다. 본 전략은 현재와 미래에 제공할 물 서비스에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인과 이해관계자의 요구(Needs)에 집중한다는 특징이 있다. 문제점에 대한 시스템적 관점을 취하면서, 물 부문이 더 넓은 사회적 요인(물, 식량, 에너지 등)에 대해 대응할 수 있는 역할을 제고하기 위함이다. 결과적으로, 산업 인프라 및 환경 관련 다양한 부문 간 협력에 의한 시너지 창출은 온실가스 배출 'Zero'(2050년) 목표 달성에 한발 다가설 것으로 기대되며, 에너지, 제조, 데이터 과학, 식량 안보, 생태 복원 등의 분야는 물 산업 간 연계성이 높아 물 분야 혁신의 기회로 작용할 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구는 물 산업 혁신 전략으로 첫째, 중장기적인 혁신을 제공할 수 있는 통합 혁신 센터를 설치하여 인적·물적 자원을 네트워크화하는 방안을 제시하였다. 둘째, 물 분야 데이터 개방을 통하여 일반, 학계, 중소기업, 스타트업 등과 공동성장 지원을 제시하였다. 셋째, 다양한 물 문제와 경영 의사결정에 환경성을 고려할 것을 제시하였다.

• Bulletin of Korea Environmental Preservation Association
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• s.413
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• pp.18-20
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• 2014

배출권 거래제의 가장 큰 장점은 주어진 감축목표를 최소의 비용으로 달성할 수 있다는 것이다. 따라서 감축목표가 명확하지 않을 경우 배출권 거래제는 정상적인 기능을 발휘하기 어렵다. 온실가스 감축목표의 경우 기후변화문제의 장기적 특성으로 인해 단기적 목표보다는 중장기적 목표의 설정이 중요하다. 결국 국가 차원의 중장기 온실가스 감축목표의 설정이 배출권 거래제의 선행 요건이 된다. 현재 우리나라는 2020년에 대한 국가 목표만 있는 상황인데, 배출권 시장의 원활한 운영을 위해서는 2030년은 물론 2050년에 대한 국가 온실가스 감축목표의 설정이 필요하다. 배출권 시장은 단기적인 목표 뿐만 아니라 중장기적인 목표가 감축여건과 동시에 가격 형성에 영향을 줌으로써 비용효과적 자원배분을 촉진할 수 있다.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.78-86
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• 2015

Water plays the fundamental role in sustaining the living system. Water scarcity is mostly experienced dramatically by people living in poverty, most of them in rural areas and often in the poorest countries. Burundi has been identified as one of those countries. This study aimed to analyze and estimate the current and future water demands in the seven communes surrounding Kibira National Park (KNP) in Burundi. Sectors such as households, livestock, agricultural production and industry as the key water users in the study area were considered. The results showed an alarming increase in future water demand. Water demand by food crops increased to $288,779,060m^3/yr$ in 2020 and $306,018,348m^3/yr$ in 2050. Agricultural sector will be demanding the major available water in the seven communes surrounding Kibira National Park except Muruta and Bukeye which showed that water demand for tea industry was the highest in 2050. The water resources could be the greatest challenges for the overall development of the communities surrounding Kibira National Park. The current water resources may not be enough and therefore may not be able to meet the needs of those seven communities around KNP.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.291-306
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• 2018

This study was designed to predict potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) in Korean Peninsula considering its dispersal ability under climate change. We used a species distribution model (SDM) based on the current species distribution and climatic variables. To reduce the uncertainty of the SDM, we applied nine single-model algorithms and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to simulate the distribution of Japanese evergreen oak in 2050 and 2070. The final future potential habitat was determined by considering whether it will be dispersed from the current habitat. The dispersal ability was determined using the Migclim by applying three coefficient values (${\theta}=-0.005$, ${\theta}=-0.001$ and ${\theta}=-0.0005$) to the dispersal-limited function and unlimited case. All the projections revealed potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak will be increased in Korean Peninsula except the RCP 4.5 in 2050. However, the future potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak was found to be limited considering the dispersal ability of this species. Therefore, estimation of dispersal ability is required to understand the effect of climate change and habitat distribution of the species.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.733-741
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• 2021

Globally, in accordance with the goals set forth in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, each country has established and declared a reduction target for carbon neutrality by 2050. The roadmaps for establishing long-term greenhouse gas emissions development strategies and setting reduction targets have been announced. As the international community accelerates the transition to the net-zero society, 128 countries have declared net-zero by the end of 2020, and the net-zero declaration continues to expand around G20 member states. In December 2020, Korea announced the "2050 Net-zero Strategy" to establish a foundation for simultaneously achieving carbon reduction, economic growth, and improved quality of life for the people through active response to the net-zero, and pursuing policy tasks in stages to do this. Comprehensive carbon management is insufficient due to the lack of comprehensive carbon management due to the departure from the areas of mandatory reduction, such as the GHG energy target management system and the GHG emissions trading offset system implemented to reduce greenhouse gases in Korea. Currently, there is no cases for estimation or calculation of carbon dioxide emissions for the Mine Reclamation projects. It is reviewed the standard methods proposed by domestic and foreign carbon emission calculation methods and proposed appropriate carbon emission estimation methods for the Mine Reclamation projects in this study.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.28 no.spc
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• pp.40-54
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• 2023

산업혁명 이후 화석연료의 광범위한 사용, 삼림 벌채, 토지사용의 변화 등과 같은 인위적 활동은 대기 중 온실가스(GHGs, greenhouse gases) 농도를 지속적으로 증가시켜 지구의 기후위기를 유발하였다. 우리나라의 경우 최근 30년 사이 평균 온도가 1.4℃ 상승하였으며, 국제사회의 일원으로 책임을 다하기 위해 2016년 11월 3일 파리협정을 비준하였다. 이에 파리협정의 목표인 산업화 이전 대비 지구 평균온도 상승을 2℃ 아래, 가능한 1.5℃ 아래로 억제하기 위해 2050년까지 CO₂ 순배출량을 0으로 만들어야 하며, 이를 위해 다양한 정책 마련과 함께 경제 및 사회 전반에 걸쳐 많은 노력이 경주되고 있는 실정이다. 탄소중립을 달성하기 위해서는 첫 번째로 GHGs 배출을 줄이고, 두번째로 대기에서 CO₂ 포집을 촉진하기 위해 현재 가동되는 다양한 산업분야의 생산 시스템을 개혁하는 것이 가장 중요한 과제로 고려되고 있다. 그동안 지하수토양 관련 연구분야에서는 지속가능성(sustainability), 복원성(resilience), 녹색성장(green growth) 등과 같은 사회적 요구에 부응하여, 녹색정화(green remediation), 자연 저감(natural attenuation), 탄소포집저장(carbon capture and sequestration), 지열발전등의 기술이 초기단계로 개발이 되고 연구가 되어 왔다. 이러한 기존 연구들은 탄소중립2050의 달성을 위해 고도화되어야하며, 추가적으로 자연 및 인위기원 탄소배출 연구, 토양의 역할을 고려한 저탄소 토지이용 기술, 광물탄산화 등의 연구 및 기술개발이 필요하다고 판단된다. 본 논문에서는 탄소중립2050의 간단한 내용과 함께, 이를 달성하기 위한 지하수토양 분야의 혁신기술 및 선도연구를 소개하였다.