• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.204-214
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• 2023

This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the potential impact of deforestation and forest restoration on carbon storage in North Korea until 2050, employing rigorous analyses of trends of land use change in the past periods and projecting future land use change scenarios. We utilized the CA-Markov model, which can reflect spatial trends in land use changes, and verified the impact of forest restoration strategies on carbon storage by creating land use change scenarios (reforestation and non-reforestation). We employed two distinct periods of land use maps (2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020). To verify the overall terrestrial carbon storage in North Korea, our evaluation included estimations of carbon storage for various elements such as above-ground, below-ground, soil, and debris (including litters) for settlement, forest, cultivated, grass, and bare areas. Our results demonstrated that effective forest restoration strategies in North Korea have the potential to increase carbon storage by 4.4% by the year 2050, relative to the carbon storage observed in 2020. In contrast, if deforestation continues without forest restoration efforts, we predict a concerning decrease in carbon storage by 11.5% by the year 2050, compared to the levels in 2020. Our findings underscore the significance of prioritizing and continuing forest restoration efforts to effectively increase carbon storage in North Korea. Furthermore, the implications presented in this study are expected to be used in the formulation and implementation of long-term forest restoration strategies in North Korea, while fostering international cooperation towards this common environmental goal.

• KSLA Bulletin
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• s.11
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• pp.89-97
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• 2020

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.97 no.1
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• pp.45-52
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• 2008

The objectives of this study are to explain a supply plan of domestic softwood log by long-term prospect of MDF production to stably promote industry of MDF. For it, we developed the long supply function as Ordinary Least Squares Method. Between 2005 and 2050, it was estimated that quantity of domestic production of MDF increased from 1,653 thousand $m^3$ to 2,041 thousand $m^3$. In 2050, quantities of domestic softwood log used by raw materials to product MDF of 2,041 thousand $m^3$ were estimated to be used about 1,355 thousand $m^3$. Exampling Pinus rigida used presently by raw materials to product MDF, cutting area of it is estimated to be 10,828 ha per year. And larch is cutted about 9,160 ha per year. This study estimated annual softwood log cutting amount and total afforestation area at 2050 year by 3 scenarios which are 35%, 45% and 55% about use of domestic softwood log for MDF production. If we do a criterion of cutting area, we advantage to plant larch. But the species of trees are use and growth property. We think that the afforestation policy must be performed on the base of those to supply raw materials of MDF. Although government plans hardwood afforestation policy after cutting Pinus rigida, it needs to support and manage certainly afforestation area of softwoods to need to supply raw materials of MDF to stably promote industry of MDF.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.415-422
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• 2017

This study focuses on the sustainable development and intelligence information society, analyzing the results of science and technology forecasts from Korea and Japan for 2040-2050. Future geological environment and disaster technologies are presented, such as base geology, geophysical geological disaster, weather adjustment, $CO_2$ reduction, environmental disaster, and smart ecocity developments. For the future technologies in energy and resources technology, space resources development and nuclear fusion will be realized by 2040 and 2050. Moreover, new material and resource technologies will be applied to replace existing energy and mineral resources by 2040. Japan has introduced intelligent information viewpoints and presented new technologies.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.556-570
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• 2012

The Low Carbon Path Calculator is an excel-based model to project greenhouse gas emissions from 2009 to 2050, which is based on the 2050 Pathways Calculator developed by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). Scenarios are developed to reduce GHG emissions in Korea at 50% based on 2005 levels by 2050 using a Low Carbon Path Calculator. They were classified in four different cases, which are high renewable, high nuclear, high CCS and mixed option scenarios. The objectives of this study are to compare scenarios in terms of GHG emissions, final energy, primary energy and electricity generation and examine the usefulness of that model in terms of identifying pathways towards a low carbon emission society. This model will enhance the understanding of the pathways toward a low carbon society and the level of the climate change policy for policy makers, stakeholders, and the public. This study can be considered as a reference for developing strategies in reducing GHG emissions in the long term.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.134.2-134.2
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• 2011

정부의 제1차 국가에너지기본계획(국무총리실 외. 2008)과 제4, 5차 전력수급기본계획(지식경제부 2008, 2010)을 바탕으로 장기 에너지 시스템 분석모형인 LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) 모형을 이용하여 2050년까지 발전 부문에서 재생가능 에너지의 확대를 통한 에너지 전환 시나리오에 대하여 정량적인 분석을 하였다. 기준 시나리오, 정부 정책 시나리오, 지속가능 사회 시나리오에 대한 발전량 및 설비 구성, 수입의존도, 연료 다양성 등 에너지 시스템에 대해 분석하는 한편, 온실가스, 대기오염물질, 온배수, 토지이용 등 환경영향을 검토하고, 시나리오별 총 비용을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 의의는 영국, 독일, 미국, 일본 등 선진국에서 전력 장기 시나리오들을 검토하는 한편, 국내 발전 부문 재생가능 에너지 전환의 가능성과 의미에 대해 화두를 던지고자 함이다.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.663-667
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• 2020

By 2050, the technologies of the fourth industrial revolution currently being discussed will become highly mature and face a turning point in human civilization. Among them, the most innovative technologies will be artificial intelligence, robots, virtual reality and hyper-connected networks. These technologies will transform not only human life but also the appearance of the battlefield. Therefore, in 2050, the Army should concentrate all its capabilities on developing new concept weapons systems based on superintelligence and hyperconnectivity that converge and integrate these technologies.

• The Korean Publising Journal, Monthly
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• s.325
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• pp.12-13
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• 2002

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.187-194
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• 2011

This study analyzed the A1B climate change scenario provided by National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Korea, to investigate potential climate changes in watersheds of 15 multi-purpose dams in South Korea. The A1B climate change scenario is produced by Regional Climate Model (RCM) with 27 km horizontal grid spacings using a one-way nesting technique with Global Climate Model (GCM). Relative to present climate conditions (1971~ 2000), the modeled 10-year averaged daily temperatures at the watersheds of the 15 multi-purpose dams continuously increased to year 2100, whereas precipitation changes were varied regionally (north, central, and south regions of South Korea). At two watersheds located in Gangwon-province (north region), the modeled temporal variations of precipitation rapidly increased in the 2090's after a slow decrease that had occurred since the 2050's. At seven watersheds in the central region, including Gyeongsangbuk-province to Jeollanam-province, the modeled temporal variations of precipitation increase showed 10-year periodic changes. At six watersheds in the south region, the modeled temporal variations of precipitation increased since the 2070's after a rapid decrease in the 2060's. Compared to the climate conditions of the late of 20th century (1971~2000), the number of rainy days and precipitation intensity increased (3% and 6~12%, respectively) in the late 21st century (2071~2100). The frequency of precipitation events tended to increase with precipitation intensity in all regions. The frequency of heavy precipitation events (>50 mm $d^{-1}$) increased with >100% in the north region, 60~100% in the central region, and 20~60% in the south region.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.51-72
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• 2006

In Korea, most studies have used the conventional Wolfbein and Wool method, which cannot be applied to women's work-life table because of bimodality and/or M curve of female labor force participation. The increment/decrement work-life table method, however, is equally applicable to both men and women, but requires individual data on employment transition. This paper demonstrates that the Garfinkle-Pollard method is the same as the increment/decrement work-life table method developed by Hoem, Schoen and Woodrow and adopted by BLS. The merit of Garfinkle-Pollard method is to produce work-life table using labor force participation rate without individual employment transition. This paper applies the Garfinkle-Pollard methods to the estimation and projection of work-life of Korean labor force for the period of 2000-2050, using the abridged life tables provided by Korean National Statistical Office and a projection of labor force participation rates. The work-life expectancy at 65 is 5.8 years for men and 4.1 years for women in 2000, and it increased to 7.7 years for men and 5.1 years in 2050. However, differences in work-life expectancy are found depending on the data processing of elderly labor force participation and mortality assumption. Detailed data on elderly labor force participation and further study on future mortality are required to estimate and project more accurate work-life expectancy.