• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.57-78
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• 2006

Now post 2012 greenhouse gas reduction commitment being discussed, studies about long-term GHG reduction scenarios toward 2050 have actively been worked separately from 5 years short-term approach. In this paper, background, temperature target, $CO_2$ concentration target, national emission target, and approach of long-term reduction scenarios toward 2050 particularly in European countries such as UK, Germany, France, Netherlands et al. are reviewed. After comparing GDP and emission indices between Developed (European) countries and Korea, some implications of long-term GHG reduction scenarios are deduced. Acting early owing to uncertainty in climate change impact and technology development rather than delaying reduction activity owing to scientific uncertainty in climate change is needed. Providing our society's vision of climate change and government's explicit direction through long-term GHG reduction target setting toward 2050 and economic units' preparing for those are needed.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.61-72
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• 2014

This paper analyzed transition pathways toward a low carbon society in Korea to meet global $2^{\circ}C$ climate target. Lower economic growth, industrial structure change, enhance of energy demand management, decarbonization of power sector, and replacement of low carbon fuel could reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from fuel combustion in 2050 by 67% against in 2011, or by 74% against in BAU (Business-As-Usual). Lower economic growth contributes to 13% of cumulative emission reduction relative to BAU, industrial structure change 9%, enhance of energy demand management 72%, decarbonization of power sector 5% and replacement of low carbon fuel 1% respectively. Final energy consumption in 2050 needs to be reduced to 50% relative to 2011, or to 41% relative to BAU. Nuclear, coal and renewable energy represent 31%, 40%, 2% respectively among electricity generation in 2011, but 38%, 2%, 32% in 2050. CCS represents 23% of total generation in 2050. Emission intensity of electricity in 2050 was decreased to 19% relative to 2011, or to 24% relative to BAU. Primary energy in 2050 was decreased to 64% compared to 2011, or to 44% compared to BAU. Final energy consumption, primary energy supply and GHG emission from fuel combustion from 1990 to 2011 increased by 176%, 197%, 146%. Radical change from historical trend is required to transit toward a low carbon society by 2050. Appropriate economic growth, structural change to non-energy intensive industries, energy technology research, development and deployment (RD&D) in terms of enhancement of energy efficiency and low carbon energy supply technologies, and fuel change to electricity and renewable energy are key instruments.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.401-405
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• 2023

From a phenomenological perspective on military human resources to carry out the government's "Defense Vision 2050" project, this study presents the direction of revision of the military pension along with the age and continuous retirement age system under Article 8 of the Military Personnel Act and the promotion criteria under Article 33 of the Enforcement Decree of the Military Act. The Military Personnel Act and the Enforcement Decree of the Military Personnel Act, which was created 60 years ago, are contrary to the equity of the current situation in 2022, and the conflicts continue to be drawn in terms of internal and external aspects of military human resources carrying out the "Defense Vision 2050" project, which is the keynote of the government's policy. In addition, this is linked to the national financial burden of military pension finances. Therefore, this study began with the need to revise the Military Personnel Act so that excellent human resources can continue to be introduced into a military system and perform stable duties through retirement age guarantee systems rather than class retirement.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.556-570
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• 2012

The Low Carbon Path Calculator is an excel-based model to project greenhouse gas emissions from 2009 to 2050, which is based on the 2050 Pathways Calculator developed by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). Scenarios are developed to reduce GHG emissions in Korea at 50% based on 2005 levels by 2050 using a Low Carbon Path Calculator. They were classified in four different cases, which are high renewable, high nuclear, high CCS and mixed option scenarios. The objectives of this study are to compare scenarios in terms of GHG emissions, final energy, primary energy and electricity generation and examine the usefulness of that model in terms of identifying pathways towards a low carbon emission society. This model will enhance the understanding of the pathways toward a low carbon society and the level of the climate change policy for policy makers, stakeholders, and the public. This study can be considered as a reference for developing strategies in reducing GHG emissions in the long term.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.51 no.2
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• pp.35-41
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• 2009

The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation requirements for Nakdong river basin in Korea have been analyzed. The HadCM3 model outputs for SRES A2 and B2 scenarios and International Water Management Institute $10'{\times}10'$ pixels observed data were used with kriging method. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the GIS. The results showed that the average growing season temperature was projected to increase by $2.2^{\circ}C$ (2050s A2), $0.0^{\circ}C$ (2050s B2), $3.7^{\circ}C$ (2080s A2) and $2.9^{\circ}C$ (2080s B2) from the baseline (1961-1990) value of $21{\circ}C$. The average growing season rainfall was projected to increase by 15.2% (2050s A2), 24.2% (2050s B2), 41.4% (2080s A2) and 16.7% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of 900 mm. Average volumetric irrigation demands were projected to decrease by 3.7% (2050s A2), 7.0% (2050s B2), 10.2% (2080s A2) and 1.4% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of $1.25{\times}10^9\;m^3$. These results can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning in the Nakdong river basin for the future.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.396-396
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• 2023

기후 위기에 대한 대응으로 현재 많은 국가에서 2050년 탄소중립을 목표로 하고 있으며, 우리나라도 2050년까지 탄소중립을 선언하고 다양한 부문의 배출 절감 계획을 내세웠다. 현재 건물 부문에서는 2050년의 목표배출량을 6.2 백만톤 CO2eq으로 설정하고 관련 정책적 수단을 검토 중이지만 달성 방안 등에 대해서는 구체적으로 제시하지 못하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 건물 부문의 이산화탄소의 배출량 산정 모델을 개발하여, 2050년까지 이산화탄소 배출 저감 시나리오를 시뮬레이션하였다. 이를 토대로 국내의 건물 부문 탄소중립 가능성을 검토한 통합 시나리오를 제시하고, 향후 정책 및 기술 개발의 방향성을 제시한다. 탄소배출량 산정모델은 연면적 예측 및 사용 에너지의 원단위 환산, 탄소배출계수 등을 고려해 개발하였고, 이를 활용하여 4가지 탄소배출 시나리오를 분석하였다. 먼저 현재 정책 기반 탄소 배출 시나리오는 탄소중립에 이르지 못하여 더 강화된 시나리오의 필요성을 보여준다. 신규 건물을 대상으로 한 제로 에너지화 제도 기반 시나리오는 전체 탄소배출량에 큰 기여를 하지 못하며, 기존 건물 대상의 그린 리모델링 제도 기반 시나리오에서는 10년 이상 건물에 50% 이상의 높은 에너지 효율 개선을 시행해야 한다는 결과를 도출하였다. 또한 전기화 시나리오에서는 화석연료와 전력의 탄소배출계수를 비교하여 적절한 에너지 전환 시점을 계산하였다. 그 결과, 건물 부문에서 2050년까지 탄소배출량 감축 목표 달성을 위해 신축 건물의 에너지 자립율 100%, 에너지 전환 계획과 연동한 건물의 전기화, 그리고 그린리모델링을 통한 효율 개선 기준을 47% 이상 달성하는 조건을 만족해야 한다는 결과를 얻었다. 이 연구는 도전적인 온실가스 감축 마련의 필요성을 제시하였으며, 탄소중립 가능성을 제시하여 실질적인 감축정책에 기여할 것으로 기대한다.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.441-452
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• 2017

The goal of this study is to explore categories and components of science literacy and investigate the trend in the importance of each category of science literacy required for Koreans living in a future society in 2050 through survey analyses with the public. This study, as a preliminarily research, is a part of a larger project called 'developing science for all Koreans,' which investigates science literacy for all Koreans. According the survey result, the definition of science literacy should include scientific thinking and working methods, application of science, etc. in addition to existing science knowledge. We also suggested science literacy including knowledge and competencies, as well as organization of science subjects in 2050 future school education, and analyzed trends in the importance of science literacy domains. Based on the results, we suggested the scientific method, science knowledge, and science application as domains of science literacy. Discussed in the conclusion are implications and directions for developing 'science for all Koreans' living in a future society in 2050.

• Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.190-199
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• 2019

$Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907 used as surface protecting agent in White's method is the one of the artificial caries lesion producing solution was discontinuing of production. New surface protecting material to substitute of $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907 was required. The author prepared an artificial caries lesion producing solution as follows White's method with $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907 and also another artificial caries lesion producing solution with $Carbopol^{(R)}$ $2050^{(R)}$. 96 flattened and polished enamel samples were immersed in a demineralizing solution of 0.1 mol/L lactic acid, 0.2% carboxyvinylpolymer and 50% saturated hydroxyapatite for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 15, 18 and 20 days. All samples from each group were subjected to polarized microscopy observed and image analysis for measuring the lesion depth. From the review of polarized images, the artificial caries lesion producing solution using $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907 and $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 2050 can produced an artificial caries that was very similar to natural caries characters. From the regression analysis of the lesion depth produced by the artificial caries lesion producing solution using $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907 and $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 2050, $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 2050 estimate as Y = 9.8X + 8.0 and $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907 was Y = 8.4X - 0.4. R square value of $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 2050 and $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907 was 0.965 and 0.945 respectively. The rate of demineralization by the artificial caries lesion producing solution using $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 2050 was faster than that of $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907. And R square value of $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 2050 and $Carbopol^{(R)}$ 907 were very high and it means that the lesion depth was very high coefficient to demineralization period.

• 에너지협의회보
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• s.76
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• pp.44-57
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• 2006

이 자료는 지난 5월 24일 중국 소흥시에서 개최된 WEC 아태지역 에너지 시나리오 워크숍 및 역내 회원국 회의에서‘Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050’을 위한 아태지역 국가별 보고서 중 에너지경제연구원 김남일 박사가 발표한 우리나라의 국가 보고서 내용 입니다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.2
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• pp.141-150
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future hydrologic behavior affected by the potential climate and land use changes in upstream of Anseong-cheon watershed ($366.5km^2$) using SWAT. The HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for 2030s (2020-2039) and 2050s (2040-2059) periods as the future climate change scenario. It was shown that maximum changes of precipitation ranged from -5.7% in 2030s to +18.5% in 2050s for RCP 4.5 scenarios and the temperature increased up to $1.8^{\circ}C$ and $2.6^{\circ}C$ in 2030s RCP 4.5 and 2050s 8.5 scenarios respectively based on baseline (1976-2005) period. The future land uses were predicted using the CLUE-s model by establishing logistic regression equation. The 2050 urban area were predicted to increase of 58.6% (29.0 to $46.0km^2$). The SWAT was calibrated and verified using 14 years (2002-2015) of daily streamflow with 0.86 and 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for stream flow (Q) and low flow 1/Q respectively focusing on 2 drought years (2014-2015) calibration. For future climate change only, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 24.2% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and turned to maximum increase of 10.9% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario compared with the baseline period stream discharge of 601.0 mm by the precipitation variation and gradual temperature increase. While considering both future climate and land use change, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 14.9% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and maximum increase of 19.5% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario by the urban growth and the related land use changes. The results supported that the future land use factor might be considered especially for having high potential urban growth within a watershed in the future climate change assessment.