• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.452-460
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• 2019

Background: Monitoring and control of PM_2.5 are being recognized as key to address health issues attributed to PM_2.5. Availability of low-cost PM_2.5 sensors made it possible to introduce a number of portable PM_2.5 monitors based on light scattering to the consumer market at an affordable price. Accuracy of light scatteringe-based PM_2.5 monitors significantly depends on the method of calibration. Static calibration curve is used as the most popular calibration method for low-cost PM_2.5 sensors particularly because of ease of application. Drawback in this approach is, however, the lack of accuracy. Methods: This study discussed the calibration of a low-cost PM_2.5-monitoring device (PMD) to improve the accuracy and reliability for practical use. The proposed method is based on construction of the PM_2.5 sensor network using Message Queuing Telemetry Transport (MQTT) protocol and web query of reference measurement data available at government-authorized PM monitoring station (GAMS) in the republic of Korea. Four machine learning (ML) algorithms such as support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting were used as regression models to calibrate the PMD measurements of PM_2.5. Performance of each ML algorithm was evaluated using stratified K-fold cross-validation, and a linear regression model was used as a reference. Results: Based on the performance of ML algorithms used, regression of the output of the PMD to PM_2.5 concentrations data available from the GAMS through web query was effective. The extreme gradient boosting algorithm showed the best performance with a mean coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.78 and standard error of 5.0 ㎍/㎥, corresponding to 8% increase in R² and 12% decrease in root mean square error in comparison with the linear regression model. Minimum 100 hours of calibration period was found required to calibrate the PMD to its full capacity. Calibration method proposed poses a limitation on the location of the PMD being in the vicinity of the GAMS. As the number of the PMD participating in the sensor network increases, however, calibrated PMDs can be used as reference devices to nearby PMDs that require calibration, forming a calibration chain through MQTT protocol. Conclusions: Calibration of a low-cost PMD, which is based on construction of PM_2.5 sensor network using MQTT protocol and web query of reference measurement data available at a GAMS, significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of a PMD, thereby making practical use of the low-cost PMD possible.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.72-78
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• 2019

The second-hand ship market provides immediate access to the freight market for shipping investors. When introducing second-hand vessels, the precise estimate of the price is crucial to the decision-making process because it directly affects the burden of capital cost to investors in the future. Previous studies on the second-hand market have mainly focused on the market efficiency. The number of papers on the estimation of second-hand vessel values is very limited. This study proposes an artificial neural network model that has not been attempted in previous studies. Six factors, freight, new-building price, orderbook, scrap price, age and vessel size, that affect the second-hand ship price were identified through literature review. The employed data is 366 real trading records of Panamax second-hand vessels reported to Clarkson between January 2016 and December 2018. Statistical filtering was carried out through correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis, and three parameters, which are freight, age and size, were selected. Ten-fold cross validation was used to estimate the hyper-parameters of the artificial neural network model. The result of this study confirmed that the performance of the artificial neural network model is better than that of simple stepwise regression analysis. The application of the statistical verification process and artificial neural network model differentiates this paper from others. In addition, it is expected that a scientific model that satisfies both statistical rationality and accuracy of the results will make a contribution to real-life practices.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.93-98
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• 2016

For accurate precipitation forecasts the choice of weather factors and prediction method is very important. Recently, machine learning has been widely used for forecasting precipitation, and artificial neural network, one of machine learning techniques, showed good performance. In this paper, we suggest a new method for forecasting precipitation using DBN, one of deep learning techniques. DBN has an advantage that initial weights are set by unsupervised learning, so this compensates for the defects of artificial neural networks. We used past precipitation, temperature, and the parameters of the sun and moon's motion as features for forecasting precipitation. The dataset consists of observation data which had been measured for 40 years from AWS in Seoul. Experiments were based on 8-fold cross validation. As a result of estimation, we got probabilities of test dataset, so threshold was used for the decision of precipitation. CSI and Bias were used for indicating the precision of precipitation. Our experimental results showed that DBN performed better than MLP.

• The Journal of Korean Medicine
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.58-79
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• 2020

Objectives: The purpose of this study is to predict the weight loss by applying machine learning using real-world clinical data from overweight and obese adults on weight loss program in 4 Korean Medicine obesity clinics. Methods: From January, 2017 to May, 2019, we collected data from overweight and obese adults (BMI≥23 kg/m2) who registered for a 3-month Gamitaeeumjowi-tang prescription program. Predictive analysis was conducted at the time of three prescriptions, and the expected reduced rate and reduced weight at the next order of prescription were predicted as binary classification (classification benchmark: highest quartile, median, lowest quartile). For the median, further analysis was conducted after using the variable selection method. The data set for each analysis was 25,988 in the first, 6,304 in the second, and 833 in the third. 5-fold cross validation was used to prevent overfitting. Results: Prediction accuracy was increased from 1^st to 2^nd and 3^rd analysis. After selecting the variables based on the median, artificial neural network showed the highest accuracy in 1^st (54.69%), 2^nd (73.52%), and 3^rd (81.88%) prediction analysis based on reduced rate. The prediction performance was additionally confirmed through AUC, Random Forest showed the highest in 1^st (0.640), 2^nd (0.816), and 3^rd (0.939) prediction analysis based on reduced weight. Conclusions: The prediction of weight loss by applying machine learning showed that the accuracy was improved by using the initial weight loss information. There is a possibility that it can be used to screen patients who need intensive intervention when expected weight loss is low.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.367-382
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• 2018

Prediction models for a corporate bond rating in existing studies have been developed using various models such as linear regression, ordered logit, and random forest. Financial characteristics help build prediction models that are expected to be contained in the assigning model of the bond rating agencies. However, the ranges of bond ratings in existing studies vary from 5 to 20 and the prediction models were developed with samples in which the target companies and the observation periods are different. Thus, a simple comparison of the prediction accuracies in each study cannot determine the best prediction model. In order to conduct a fair comparison, this study has collected corporate bond ratings and financial characteristics from 2013 to 2017 and applied prediction models to them. In addition, we applied the elastic-net penalty for the linear regression, the ordered logit, and the ordered probit. Our comparison shows that data-driven variable selection using the elastic-net improves prediction accuracy in each corresponding model, and that the random forest is the most appropriate model in terms of prediction accuracy, which obtains 69.6% accuracy of the exact rating prediction on average from the 5-fold cross validation.

• Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.371-381
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• 2016

Objective:This study aims to evaluate the features of heart rate variability (HRV) and respiratory signals as indices for a driver's drowsiness and waking status in order to develop the classification model for a driver's drowsiness and waking status using those features. Background: Driver's drowsiness is one of the major causal factors for traffic accidents. This study hypothesized that the application of combined bio-signals to monitor the alertness level of drivers would improve the effectiveness of the classification techniques of driver's drowsiness. Method: The features of three heart rate variability (HRV) measurements including low frequency (LF), high frequency (HF), and LF/HF ratio and two respiratory measurements including peak and rate were acquired by the monotonous car driving simulation experiments using the photoplethysmogram (PPG) and respiration sensors. The experiments were repeated a total of 50 times on five healthy male participants in their 20s to 50s. The classification model was developed by selecting the optimal measurements, applying a binary logistic regression method and performing 3-fold cross validation. Results: The power of LF, HF, and LF/HF ratio, and the respiration peak of drowsiness status were reduced by 38%, 22%, 31%, and 7%, compared to those of waking status, while respiration rate was increased by 3%. The classification sensitivity of the model using both HRV and respiratory features (91.4%) was improved, compared to that of the model using only HRV feature (89.8%) and that using only respiratory feature (83.6%). Conclusion: This study suggests that the classification of driver's drowsiness and waking status may be improved by utilizing a combination of HRV and respiratory features. Application: The results of this study can be applied to the development of driver's drowsiness prevention systems.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.919-929
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• 2013

Recently, a variety of IT technologies are applied to the vehicle. However, some vehicle-IT technologies without security considerations may cause security problems. Specially, some researches about a smart key system applied to automobiles for authentication show that the system is insecure from replay attacks and modification attacks using a wireless signal of the smart key. Thus, in this paper, we propose an authentication method for the driver by using driving patterns. Nowadays, we can obtain driving patterns using the In-vehicle network data. In our authentication model, we make driving ppatterns of car owner using standard normal distribution and apply these patterns to driver authentication. To validate our model, we perform an k-fold cross validation test using In-vehicle network data and obtain the result(true positive rate 0.7/false positive rate is 0.35). Considering to our result, it turns out that our model is more secure than existing 'what you have' authentication models such as the smart key if the authentication result is sent to the car owner through mobile networks.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.6 no.11
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• pp.527-536
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• 2017

With the recent development of smart grid industry, the necessity for efficient EMS(Energy Management System) has been increased. In particular, in order to reduce electric load and energy cost, sophisticated electric load forecasting and efficient smart grid operation strategy are required. In this paper, for more accurate electric load forecasting, we extend the data collected at demand time into high time resolution and construct an artificial neural network-based forecasting model appropriate for the high time resolution data. Furthermore, to improve the accuracy of electric load forecasting, time series data of sequence form are transformed into continuous data of two-dimensional space to solve that problem that machine learning methods cannot reflect the periodicity of time series data. In addition, to consider external factors such as temperature and humidity in accordance with the time resolution, we estimate their value at the time resolution using linear interpolation method. Finally, we apply the PCA(Principal Component Analysis) algorithm to the feature vector composed of external factors to remove data which have little correlation with the power data. Finally, we perform the evaluation of our model through 5-fold cross-validation. The results show that forecasting based on higher time resolution improve the accuracy and the best error rate of 3.71% was achieved at the 3-min resolution.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.137-144
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• 2020

Delirium is among the most common mental disorders encountered in patients with a temporary cognitive impairment such as consciousness disorder, attention disorder, and poor speech, particularly among those who are older. Delirium is distressing for patients and families, can interfere with the management of symptoms such as pain, and is associated with increased elderly mortality. The purpose of this paper is to generate useful clinical knowledge that can be used to distinguish the outcomes of patients with delirium in long-term care facilities. For this purpose, we extracted the clinical classification knowledge associated with delirium using a local covering rule acquisition approach with the rough lower approximation region. The clinical applicability of the proposed method was verified using data collected from a prospective cohort study. From the results of this study, we found six useful clinical pieces of evidence that the duration of delirium could more than 12 days. Also, we confirmed eight factors such as BMI, Charlson Comorbidity Index, hospitalization path, nutrition deficiency, infection, sleep disturbance, bed scores, and diaper use are important in distinguishing the outcomes of delirium patients. The classification performance of the proposed method was verified by comparison with three benchmarking models, ANN, SVM with RBF kernel, and Random Forest, using a statistical five-fold cross-validation method. The proposed method showed an improved average performance of 0.6% and 2.7% in both accuracy and AUC criteria when compared with the SVM model with the highest classification performance of the three models respectively.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.395-432
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• 2021

Groundwater recharge rates vary widely by location and with time. They are difficult to measure directly and are thus often estimated using simulations. This study employed frequency and regression analysis and a classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm in a machine learning method to estimate groundwater recharge. CART algorithms are considered for the distribution of precipitation by subbasin (PCP), geomorphological data, indices of the relationship between vegetation and landuse, and soil type. The considered geomorphological data were digital elevaion model (DEM), surface slope (SLOP), surface aspect (ASPT), and indices were the perpendicular vegetation index (PVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference tillage index (NDTI), normalized difference residue index (NDRI). The spatio-temperal distribution of groundwater recharge in the SWAT-MOD-FLOW program, was classified as group 4, run in R, sampled for random and a model trained its groundwater recharge was predicted by CART condidering modified PVI, NDVI, NDTI, NDRI, PCP, and geomorphological data. To assess inter-rater reliability for group 4 groundwater recharge, the Kappa coefficient and overall accuracy and confusion matrix using K-fold cross-validation were calculated. The model obtained a Kappa coefficient of 0.3-0.6 and an overall accuracy of 0.5-0.7, indicating that the proposed model for estimating groundwater recharge with respect to soil type and vegetation cover is quite reliable.