• Title/Summary/Keyword: 1-Parameter Weibull Model

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Development Model of the Foxglove Aphid, Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach) on Lettuce (상추에서의 싸리수염진딧물(Aulacorthum solani)의 발육과 발육모형)

  • Lee, Sang-Guei;Kim, Hyeong-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Heung;Park, Gil-Jun;Kim, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Ji-Soo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.359-364
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    • 2008
  • The development of Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach) was studied at temperatures ranging from 12.5 to $27.5^{\circ}C$ under $65{\pm}5%$ RH, and a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D). Mortality of $1st{\sim}2nd$ nymph was higher than that of $3rd{\sim}4th$ nymph at the most temperature ranges whereas at high temperature of $27.5^{\circ}C$, more $3{\sim}4th$ nymph stage individuals died. The total developmental time ranged from 16.9 days at $12.5^{\circ}C$ to 6.6days at $22.5^{\circ}C$, suggesting that higher the temperature, faster the development. However, at higher temperature of $25^{\circ}C$ the development took 7.4 days. The lower developmental threshold temperature and effective accumulative temperatures for the total immature stage were $0.08^{\circ}C$ and 162.8 day-degreeslated development. The nonlinear shape of temperature rewas well described by the modified Sharpe and DeMichele model. When the normalized cumulative frequency distributions of developmental times for each life stage were fitted to the three-parameter Weibull function, attendance of shortened developmental times was apparent with in $1{\sim}2nd$ nymph, $3{\sim}4th$ nymph, and total nymph stages in descending order. The coefficient of determination $r^2$ ranged between 0.86 and 0.91.

Temperature-dependent Development and Fecundity of Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on Corns (옥수수에서 기장테두리진딧물의 온도 의존적 발육과 산자 특성)

  • Park, Jeong Hoon;Kwon, Soon Hwa;Kim, Tae Ok;Oh, Sung Oh;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.149-160
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    • 2016
  • Temperature-dependent development and fecundity of apterious Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) were examined at six constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and $35{\pm}1.0^{\circ}C$, RH 50-70%, 16L:8D). Development time of nymphs decreased with increasing temperature and ranged from 42.9 days at $10^{\circ}C$ to 4.7 days at $30^{\circ}C$. The nymphs did not develop until adult at $35^{\circ}C$ because the nymphs died during the 2nd instar. The lower threshold temperature and thermal constant of nymph were estimated as $8.3^{\circ}C$ and 101.6 degree days, respectively. The relationships between development rates of nymph and temperatures were well described by the nonlinear model of Lactin 2. The distribution of development times of each stage was successfully fitted to the Weibull function. The longevity of apterious adults decreased with increasing temperature ranging from 24.0 days at $15^{\circ}C$ to 4.3 days at $30^{\circ}C$, with abnormally short longevity of 11.1 days at $10^{\circ}C$. R. padi showed the highest fecundity at $20^{\circ}C$ (38.2) and the lowest fecundity at $10^{\circ}C$ (3.9). In this study, we provided component sub-models for the oviposition model of R. padi: total fecundity, age-specific cumulative oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate as well as adult aging rate based on the adult physiological age.

Evaluation and Comparison of Effects of Air and Tomato Leaf Temperatures on the Population Dynamics of Greenhouse Whitefly (Trialeurodes vaporariorum) in Cherry Tomato Grown in Greenhouses (시설내 대기 온도와 방울토마토 잎 온도가 온실가루이(Trialeurodes vaporariorum)개체군 발달에 미치는 영향 비교)

  • Park, Jung-Joon;Park, Kuen-Woo;Shin, Key-Il;Cho, Ki-Jong
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.420-432
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    • 2011
  • Population dynamics of greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood), were modeled and simulated to compare the temperature effects of air and tomato leaf inside greenhouse using DYMEX model simulator (pre-programed module based simulation program developed by CSIRO, Australia). The DYMEX model simulator consisted of temperature dependent development and oviposition modules. The normalized cumulative frequency distributions of the developmental period for immature and oviposition frequency rate and survival rate for adult of greenhouse whitefly were fitted to two-parameter Weibull function. Leaf temperature on reversed side of cherry tomato leafs (Lycopersicon esculentum cv. Koko) was monitored according to three tomato plant positions (top, > 1.6 m above the ground level; middle, 0.9 - 1.2 m; bottom, 0.3 - 0.5 m) using an infrared temperature gun. Air temperature was monitored at same three positions using a Hobo self-contained temperature logger. The leaf temperatures from three plant positions were described as a function of the air temperatures with 3-parameter exponential and sigmoidal models. Data sets of observed air temperature and predicted leaf temperatures were prepared, and incorporated into the DYMEX simulator to compare the effects of air and leaf temperature on population dynamics of greenhouse whitefly. The number of greenhouse whitefly immatures was counted by visual inspection in three tomato plant positions to verify the performance of DYMEX simulation in cherry tomato greenhouse where air and leaf temperatures were monitored. The egg stage of greenhouse whitefly was not counted due to its small size. A significant positive correlation between the observed and the predicted numbers of immature and adults were found when the leaf temperatures were incorporated into DYMEX simulation, but no significant correlation was observed with the air temperatures. This study demonstrated that the population dynamics of greenhouse whitefly was affected greatly by the leaf temperatures, rather than air temperatures, and thus the leaf surface temperature should be considered for management of greenhouse whitefly in cherry tomato grown in greenhouses.

Temperature-dependent Development and Its Model of the Greenbug, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) (Homoptera: Aphididae) (보리두갈래진딧물 [Schizaphis graminum (Rondani)]의 온도발육과 발육모형)

  • Lee, Jang-Ho;Kim, Tae-Heung;Kim, Ji-Soo;Hwangn, Chang-Yeon;Lee, Sang-Guei
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.213-219
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    • 2007
  • The development of Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) was studied at various constant temperatures ranging from 15 to $32.5^{\circ}C$, with $65{\pm}5%$ RH, and a photoperiod of 16L:8D. Mortality of the $1_{st}-2_{nd}\;and\;the\;3_{rd}-4_{th}$ stage nymphs were similar at most temperature ranges while at high temperature of $32.5^{\circ}C$, more $3_{rd}-4_{th}$ stage individuals died. The total developmental time ranged from 13.8 days at $15^{\circ}C$ to 4.9 days at $30.0^{\circ}C$ suggesting that the higher the temperature, the faster the development. However, at higher end temperature of $32.5^{\circ}C$ the development took 6.4 days. The lower developmental threshold temperature and effective accumulative temperatures for the total immature stage were $6.8^{\circ}C$ and 105.9 day-degrees, respectively and the nonlinear shape of temperature related development was well described by the modified Sharpe and DeMichele model. The normalized cumulative frequency distributions of developmental period for each life stage were fitted to the three-parameter Weibull function. The attendance of shortened developmental times was apparent with $1_{st}-2_{nd}\;nymph,\;3_{rd}-4_{th}$ nymph, and total nymph stages in descending order. The coefficient of determination $r^2$ ranged between 0.80 and 0.87.

Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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Test methodology of acceleration life test on feeder cable assembly (Feeder Cable Assembly의 가속수명시험법 개발)

  • Han, Hyun Kak
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 2016
  • The feeder cable assembly is an automotive part used for telecommunication. If it malfunctions, the control and safety of the automobile can be put at risk. ALT (Accelerated Life Testing) is a testing process for products in which they are subjected to conditions (stress, strain, temperatures, etc.) in excess of their normal service parameters in an attempt to uncover faults and potential modes of failure in a short amount of time. Failure is caused by defects in the design, process, quality, or application of the part, and these defects are the underlying causes of failure or which initiate a process leading to failure. Thermal shock occurs when a thermal gradient causes different parts of an object to expand by different amounts. Thermal shock testing is performed to determine the ability of parts and components to withstand sudden changes in temperature. In this research, the main causes of failure of the feeder cable assembly were snapping, shorting and electro-pressure resistance failure. Using the Coffin-Manson model for ALT, the normal conditions were from Tmax = $80^{\circ}C$ to Tmin = $-40^{\circ}C$, the accelerated testing conditions were from Tmax = $120^{\circ}C$ to Tmin = $-60^{\circ}C$, the AF (Acceleration Factor) was 2.25 and the testing time was reduced from 1,000 cycles to 444 cycles. Using the Bxlife test, the number of samples was 5, the required life was B0.04%.10years, in the acceleration condition, 747 cycles were obtained. After the thermal shock test under different conditions, the feeder cable assembly was examined by a network analyzer and compared with the Weibull distribution modulus parameter. The results obtained showed good results in acceleration life test mode. For the same reliability rate, the testing time was decreased by a quarter using ALT.