• 물과 미래
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.79-94
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• 1977

본 연구는 Run-Length와 Run-Sum에 의한 강우량과 하천유량을 분석하여 그 특성을 구명하고, 이로부터 모의발생 모델(Simulation Model)을 설정하여 검토하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 분석에 있어서는 우리나라의 주요도시(서울, 대구 및 부산)의 일강우량과 주요하천(한강, 낙동강 및 금강)의 일류량 자료들을 사용하였다. 또한 해석에 있어서는 Run-Length와 Run-Sum에 대한 각각의 분포형 분석으로부터 Weibull 분포 및 1-변수지수 분포를 하고 있음을 알았으며, 이로부터 Monte Carlo 기법(Monte Carlo technique)을 기초로 하는 Weibull모델(Weibull model)과 1-변수지수 모델(One-Parameter Exponential Model)에 의해서 Run-Length와 Run-Sum을 모의발생 시켰다. 그 결과 기록치(Historical Data)에 근사한 모의발생 자료(Simulation Data)를 얻었다.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2000

Regional flood frequency analysis has been developed by employing the nearby site's information to improve a precision in estimating flood quantiles at the site of interest. In this paper, single site and regional flood frequency analyses were compared based of the 2-parameter Weibull model. For regional analysis, two approaches were employed. The First one is to use the asymptotic variances of the quantile estimators derived based of the assumption that all sites including the site of interest are independent each other. This approach may give the maximum regional gain due to the spatial independence assumption among sites. The second one in Hosking's regional L-moment algorithm. These methods were applied to annual flood data. As the results, both methods generally showed the regional gain at the site of interest depending on grouping the sites as homogeneous. And asymptotic formula generally shows smaller variance than those from Hosking's algorithm. If the shape parameter of the site of interest from single site analysis is quite different from that from regional analysis then Hosking's results might be better than the asymptotic ones because the formula was derived based on the assumption that all sites have the same regional shape parameter. Furthermore, in such a case, regional analysis might be worse than single site analysis in the sense of precision of flood quantile estimation. Even though the selected sites may satisfy Hosking's criteria, regional analysis may not give a regional gain for specific and nonexceedance probabilities.

• 한국식품저장유통학회지
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.423-428
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• 2011

주요 식중독균인 E. coli O157:H7, L monocytogenes, S. aureus, S. Typhimurium과 S. Enteritidis를 주어진 이산화염소수 농도에서 시간별로 처리한 inactivation data를 first-order kinetic model과 Weibull model을 이용하여 kinetic parameter를 비교, 분석하였다. 그 결과 Weibull model이 first-order kinetic model보다 inactivation kinetic data에 더 적합한 것을 보였다. 또한 특정 농도의 이산화염소수에서 처리한 survival plot의 tR values(특정 이산화염소수 농도에서 미생물 90%를 감소시키기 위해 필요한 시간)는 Weibull model을 적용 시, E. coli O157:H7가 5 ppm에서 2.49 min, L. monocytogenes가 5 ppm에서 1.47 min, S. aureus가 5 ppm에서 0.94 min, S. Typhimurium이 1 ppm에서 0.87 min 그리고 S. Enteritidis가 1 ppm에서 0.08 min으로 측정 되었다.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.7-16
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• 2020

Tree size distribution modelling is an integral part of forest management. Most distribution yield systems rely on some flexible probability models. In this study, a simple finite mixture of two components two-parameter Weibull distribution was compared with complex four-parameter distributions in terms of their fitness to predict tree size distribution of teak (Tectona grandis Linn f) plantations. Also, a system of equation was developed using Seemingly Unrelated Regression wherein the size distributions of the stand were predicted. Generalized beta, Johnson's SB, Logit-Logistic and generalized Weibull distributions were the four-parameter distributions considered. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and negative log-likelihood value were used to assess the distributions. The results show that the simple finite mixture outperformed the four-parameter distributions especially in stands that are bimodal and heavily skewed. Twelve models were developed in the system of equation-one for predicting mean diameter, seven for predicting percentiles and four for predicting the parameters of the finite mixture distribution. Predictions from the system of equation are reasonable and compare well with observed distributions of the stand. This simplified mixture would allow for wider application in distribution modelling and can also be integrated as component model in stand density management diagram.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.61-69
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• 2003

This study investigated the effect of moisture content and loading direction on dowel bearing strength of two types of SCL. Dowel bearing tests of LVL and PSL were conducted with two different MC level, 7.5% and 19%, and two different oriention, L-direction(loading parallel to grain) and X-direction(loading perpendicular to grain). Most of specimens showed typical load-deformation curves and intersected 5% offset line. Failure modes were classified into two categories; spliting(for L-direction specimens) and peeling(for X-direction specimens). Dowel bearing strength generally decreased with increasing MC. The decreasing rate was more significant in X-directon. ESG also decreased with increasing MC, and the ratio of ESG of 7.5% versus 19% was about 1.47. Dowel bearing strength of LVL and PSL in L-direction was higher than that of X-direction. This results indicated that MC and loading orientation had a significant effect on dowel bearing strength of SCL. The average dowel bearing strength of LVL were higher than that of PSL in each loading direction. Two types of probability distribution model were chosen to quantify strength distribution, normal and 2-parameter weibull distribution. The two models showed good agreement with the data, especially in lower tail of the cumulative distribution. Normal and 2-parameter weibull distribution seemed to proper model of the dowel bearing strength for each MC levels.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.1-19
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• 2021

Heavy tailed distributions are useful for modeling actuarial and financial risk management problems. Actuaries often search for finding distributions that provide the best fit to heavy tailed data sets. In the present work, we introduce a new class of heavy tailed distributions of a special sub-model of the proposed family, called a new extended alpha power transformed Weibull distribution, useful for modeling heavy tailed data sets. Mathematical properties along with certain characterizations of the proposed distribution are presented. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are obtained. A simulation study is provided to evaluate the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators. Actuarial measures such as Value at Risk and Tail Value at Risk are also calculated. Further, a simulation study based on the actuarial measures is done. Finally, an application of the proposed model to a heavy tailed data set is presented. The proposed distribution is compared with some well-known (i) two-parameter models, (ii) three-parameter models and (iii) four-parameter models.

• Composites Research
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.13-18
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• 2003

복합재료의 피로수명을 평가하는 것은 여러 가지 파손모드와 파손모드 간의 강호작용 때문에 복잡하다. 본 논문에서는 현상론적인 모델(비선형 강도저하 모델)을 이용하여 피로수명과 잔류강도를 예측할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였다. 잔류강도를 하중 사이클 수와 피로응력의 함수로 가정하였으며, 계산에 필요한 모델변수(강도저하 파라미터, 피로수명형상 파라미터)를 피로수명의 함수로 가정하였다 임의로 배열된 하중 스펙트럼 상에서 응력수준에 따른 모델 매개변수를 구하기 위해 S-N 선도를 이용하였고, 상이한 응력비에 대하여 전술한 매개변수를 Goodman식의 보정을 통하여 계산하였다(피로선도). 임의의 하중이력 후의 잔여강도 분포를 2모수 weibull 함수로 표현하였다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2019

Due to developing environmental concern use of renewable energy source is very essential. The great demand for the energy supply coupled with inadequate energy sources creates an emergency to find a new solution for the energy shortage. The appropriate wind energy distribution is the fundamental requirement for the assessment of wind energy potential available at the particular site essential for the design of wind farms. Hence the proper specification of the wind speed distribution plays a vital role. In this paper the Bimodal Weibull distribution is used to estimate the Capacity factor at the proposed site. The shape and scale parameters estimated using Maximum likelihood method is used as the initial value for extrapolation. Application of this model will give an accurate result overwhelming the concept of overestimation or underestimation of Capacity factor.

• 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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• 제19권10호
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• pp.947-952
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• 2006

It has been confirmed that the inner defect of insulator and the perfect diagnosis for aging are closely related to safe electric power transmission system and that the detection of accident and diagnosis technique turn out to be very important issues. But perfect diagnosis is difficult because discharge pattern is irregular. Thus, we investigated discharge pattern using the new distribution statistical models with cross-inked polyethylene(XLPE) specimens. Voltage was applied to power frequency by step method, and calibration of discharge was set to 50 pC. After the voltage was applied, it measured the discharge occurring during 10s. We investigated discharge pattern using the K-means analysis and Weibull function. We also investigated variation of centroid and shape parameter due to variation of voltage. As a result of analyzing K-means, it was confirmed that cluster including many object numbers was formed by the presence of void. And result of Weibull distribution, it was confirmed that shape parameter of discharge varied from 1.28 to 1.62 in no void specimens, and that shape parameter of discharge number varied from 1.28 to 1.62. In the void, shape parameter of discharge varied from 5.66 to 6.43, and shape parameter of discharge number varied from 5.05 to 5.08.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.41-51
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• 2005

The Bayes estimators of the parameters included in the complementary Weibull reliability model are obtained. In the process of deriving Bayes estimators, the scale and shape parameters of the complementary Weibull distribution are considered to be independent random variables having prior exponential distributions. The maximum likelihood estimators of the desired parameters are derived. Further, the least square estimators are obtained in closed forms. Simulation study is made using Monte Carlo method to make a comparison among the obtained estimators. The comparison is made by computing the root mean squared errors associated to each point estimation. Based on the numerical study, the Bayes procedure seems better than the maximum likelihood and least square procedures in the sense of having smaller root mean squared errors.