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Dynamic Nonlinear Prediction Model of Univariate Hydrologic Time Series Using the Support Vector Machine and State-Space Model (Support Vector Machine과 상태공간모형을 이용한 단변량 수문 시계열의 동역학적 비선형 예측모형)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.3B
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2006
  • The reconstruction of low dimension nonlinear behavior from the hydrologic time series has been an active area of research in the last decade. In this study, we present the applications of a powerful state space reconstruction methodology using the method of Support Vector Machines (SVM) to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) volume. SVMs are machine learning systems that use a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space. SVMs are optimized by minimizing a bound on a generalized error (risk) measure, rather than just the mean square error over a training set. The utility of this SVM regression approach is demonstrated through applications to the short term forecasts of the biweekly GSL volume. The SVM based reconstruction is used to develop time series forecasts for multiple lead times ranging from the period of two weeks to several months. The reliability of the algorithm in learning and forecasting the dynamics is tested using split sample sensitivity analyses, with a particular interest in forecasting extreme states. Unlike previously reported methodologies, SVMs are able to extract the dynamics using only a few past observed data points (Support Vectors, SV) out of the training examples. Considering statistical measures, the prediction model based on SVM demonstrated encouraging and promising results in a short-term prediction. Thus, the SVM method presented in this study suggests a competitive methodology for the forecast of hydrologic time series.

Environmental Assessment of Shotcrete Using Recycled Industrial By-Products (Fly Ash) and Silica Fume (산업부산물(플라이애시)과 실리카퓸을 재활용한 숏크리트의 환경유해성 평가)

  • Park, Cheolwoo;Sim, Jongsung;Kang, Taesung;Park, Seongeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3C
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    • pp.159-165
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    • 2010
  • The problems such as natural resource exhaustion, pollutant emission and waste generation are increasing worldwide with the industrial development. The quantity of the industrial by-product in Korea is 6 million tons a year, and even its basic treatment processes including landfill, incineration and storage have reached their limits. In this study, fly ash and silica fume were applied to shotcrete to develop a method for the reuse of resources and to increase the use of fly ash, which is an industrial waste. An environmental hazard evaluation is a must to actively address the worldwide environmental problems, though. Therefore, an environmental impact assessment was conducted using the chemical content analysis test and heavy metal exudation test, for ten mixtures that were obtained through the pre-mixing and compressive strength tests. The results of the compressive strength test showed that all mixtures satisfied national and international standards. Cr, Cd and Hg were not detected, and Pb was detected only in some cases with fly ash. Cu and As were detected in all mixtures, but all of them satisfied national and international standards.

Flow Analysis in Road Gutter Storage Using Fluent Model (Fluent 모형을 이용한 도로 측구 저류조에서의 흐름 분석)

  • Kim, Jung Soo;Lee, Min Sung;Han, Chyung Such;Yoo, In Gi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.234-234
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    • 2022
  • 도로에서의 우수를 원활하게 처리하기 위해서 빗물받이 및 연결관 등의 노면 배수시설이 설치되고 있으며, 노면 배수는 측구부를 통해 흘러 빗물받이 유입부로 차집되고 연결관을 통해 하수관거로 배수된다. 그러나 최근 국내 기상패턴의 변화로 국지성 집중호우와 같이 시간당 강우량 증가로 도로부와 저지대에서 배수시설의 배수불량에 따른 도심지 내수침수 피해가 발생하고 있다. 이에 정부에서는 다양한 우수관거 개선사업, 빗물펌프장, 지하저류조와 같은 방재시설을 설치하고 있으나 우수유출저감시설은 대규모 예산이 소요되고 실제 침수지역에 피해 저감효과에 대한 효용성 문제에 대한 제기뿐만 아니라 과밀화된 도심지에서는 지하공간 활용에 한계가 있는 실정이므로 도심지의 다양한 공간을 활용한 도시 배수 및 저류시설에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 유휴 공간인 도로 측구부 공간을 활용하여 도로 노면수를 저류 및 지체할 수 있는 노면수 측구 저류시설의 개념을 제시하고 측구저류조의 활용성을 판단하기 위하여 빗물받이 유입구, 빗물받이, 측구 저류조 및 빗물받이와 측구저류조 연결부에서의 노면수 유입, 유출 및 저류 등의 다양한 흐름 변화를 확인하기 위하여 Fluent 모형의 적용성을 분석하였다. 수치모의 전체 형상은 50x50cm 크기의 빗물받이를 기준으로 양쪽에 2m 길이의 측구 저류조를 원형관으로 연결하여 1/5 축소모형으로 구성하고 격자는 빗물받이 유입부, 빗물받이 및 측구 저류조 내부의 복잡한 3차원 흐름을 모의하기 위해 사면체와 육면체로 조밀하게 생성하였다. 다상유동해석을 위해 VOF(Volume of Fluid)방법을 적용하였고, 수치해석 방법으로는 비정상류, 난류 모형으로는 SST k-ω모형을 적용하였다. 수치모의 조건으로는 설계빈도별(5~30년) 우수유출량을 산정하여 유입 유량별 기존 빗물받이 유입부에서의 유입흐름, 빗물받이 내부에서의 와 발생흐름, 측구 저류조 및 연결관에서의 흐름을 구현하여 분석하였다. 수치모의 결과 빗물받이 유입부에서 연결관을 통한 측구 저류조로 유입되는 유입흐름과 빗물받이 하단부의 배수관을 통해 유출되는 흐름을 정상적으로 구현하였으며, 빗물받이 유입부 및 측구 저류조 연결관에서의 유속변화도 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 빗물받이와 측구 저류조에서 다양한 흐름을 구현하기 위한 Flunet 모형의 적용성을 검토하였으며, 향후 수리실험을 통하여 실제 흐름과의 매개변수 최적화 및 다양한 도로 조건의 변화를 고려한 수치모의 분석을 통하여 지속적인 모형의 검증이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

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A Study on King Sejong's Amicable Consciousness of Confucianism and Buddhism (세종대왕의 유불화해의식에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Nam-Uk
    • Journal of Ethics
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    • no.80
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2011
  • Confucianism and Buddhism were compatible in the period of Goryeo Dynasty. And then, the rulers worshiped Confucianism and repressed the religious activity of the Buddhist monk in the early years of the Joseon Dynasty. But King Sejong planed to bring reconciliation between Confucianism and Buddhism. Especially on the ceremonies of mourning and sacrificial rituals, he always performed the two religious style. The reason of sticking to his amicable consciousness is as follows. Firstly, he thinks that both the theory of Confucianism and the religious spirit of Buddhism are very important for the building up the foundation of his Dynasty. Secondly, his mind has been of a same faith cure on the incurable disease. Therefor, when the Royal family is taken ill he must pray to Buddha for recovery from the first stage. Thirdly, he regards social conditions to be the most important and respect for man's life and dignity for the purpose of beneficent administration. But Joseon's government line was the anti-Buddhist policy. So, the policy came in the wake of a debate among King Sejong and Confucian government officials. However his harmonious mind was unchanged between Confucianism and Buddhism. After all, in the last phase of his life he was deeply religious on Buddhism. I think that King Sejong's amicable consciousness could make a contribution to overcome religious conflicts and to create a new political cultural form in the modern society

The Effect of Guided Autobiography on Ego-Integrity, Depression and Life Satisfaction and the Heuristic Meaning in the Elderly (집단 자서전쓰기가 노년기 자아통합, 우울 및 생활만족도에 미치는 효과와 체험적 의의)

  • Lyu, Jung In;Cho, Haekyung;Kim, Byung Suk
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.559-576
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    • 2012
  • This research aims to address the effect of Guided Autobiography(GAB) on ego-integrity, depression and life-satisfaction in the elderly and to investigate psychological changes and experiences on the senior subject. 20 subjects participated weekly autobiography writing sessions in a senior academy in the S city for 13 weeks. In this research, we carried out examination on ego-integrity, depression test, and life-satisfaction survey were performed before and after the writing sessions for a quantitative analysis, which was later investigated through a 'corresponding sample T-test'. Based on the results of the above mentioned tests, the qualitative analysis was conducted through an individual sessions with 5 selected participants. The results of this research are summarized as following. First, ego-integrity showed satisfactorily meaningful difference between pre- and post-GAB writing. The participants recollected the past repent and revisited unresolved issues in their lives. The subjects were able to accept these past misdemeanors and appreciate their lives. GAB indeed helped improving ego-integrity. Second, the hypothesis that GAB writing will help decrease depression was accepted. 2-page weekly writing assignments enabled the participants think of joyful moments in their past, and showed decrease the symptoms of depression. Third, this study revealed that GAB writing improved life- satisfaction. The participants learned to express gratitude and peace in their mind. The happy feeling and optimistic thoughts enhanced their satisfaction of life in turn. In addition, it turned out that the effects of GAB were more drastic in group sessions than in individual writings. Interpersonal interactions in group sessions encouraged the exchange of positive feedback, thereby helping them reflect themselves positively.

The Development of the Scale for the Elderly's Intention on Home Renovation (노인의 주택개조 의지 측정도구 개발)

  • Jang, Mi Seon;Lee, Yeun Sook
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.215-228
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to develop a scale to measure the elderly's intention on home renovation and to verify its validity. As a methodological study based on the theory of planned behavior, this study provides 26 preliminary items in the pre-test. The first main test, performed to verify the content validity of the developed items, was followed by a second test of construct validity and reliability. As the result of the content validity test targeting experts, some of the original 26 items were excluded, while others were combined for a total of 22. As the result of the construct validity test of the scale, targeting the elderly aged 65 and over, the 22 items were narrowed down to 14 items, excluding the items that were unsuitable for communality and Eigen value. After once more conducting a factor analysis, the items were classified into five factors with a total cumulative variance of 72.5% and a Cronbach's α of 0.75. This study will contribute to the discussion of housing for the elderly by giving force to environmental regeneration activities through facilitating the identification of the home owners' intentions to renovate in order to improve the physical environment in decayed areas at a public level.

The Empirical Research on Relationship of Consumption Value, Satisfaction, Trust, Loyalty of Green Product in Elderly Consumer (실버 소비자의 친환경 제품에 대한 소비 가치가 만족도, 신뢰, 충성도에 미치는 영향 - 하이브리드 카를 중심으로 -)

  • Hur, Won-Moo;Ahn, Joonhee
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.195-213
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse how consumption value affects the loyalty of green product through satisfaction and trust among elderly consumers. Data were collected from a cross-sectional survey of 314 older adults (age≥60) in the U. S., who bought and possessed a hybrid car, a representative green product. The statistical methodology is employed a structural equation model. The results demonstrated several important findings. First, perceived social value among elderly population had significant effects on green product satisfaction, while hedonic value did not. Second, both perceived functional value and environment friendly value had a significant positive effect on trust in green products. Third, satisfaction with green products also led to trust in green products. Finally, trust in green products showed their significant effects on loyalty in green product. These results provide practical implications to improve the trust and loyalty in green products among the elderly consumers. Furthermore, by deriving major components of consumption values in green products among the elderly, and analyzing the mechanism of satisfaction, trust, and loyalty, the study emphasizes relationship marketing in implementing "green" marketing strategies.

The Clustering and Variables in Discriminating the Groups by the Level of the Loss Experience and Ego-integrity in the Elderly (노인의 상실경험과 자아통합감 수준에 따른 적응군집화 및 집단판별에 기여하는 변인)

  • Jung, Mi-kyung;Lee, Kyu-mee
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to search the clustering and variables in discriminating the groups by the level of the loss experience and ego-integrity among the elderly. In addition, the study aimed to confirm the moderating effects of variables related to resilience in the relationship between a loss experience and ego-integrity. The subjects were 245 elderly aged 60 or above, most of whom were socially active with comparatively high education levels. Six individual variables(physical self-efficacy, general self-efficacy, social self-efficacy, existential spirituality, religious spirituality, optimism) and five environmental variables(emotional support, instrumental support, informational support, appraisal support, social activity) were used in the study. The results of the study are as follows. To data analysis, ANOVA, Stepwise Discriminant analysis, Cluster analysis, Regression analysis and Two-way analysis of variance was employed. First, the subjects were 4 cluster into overcome group, crisis group, stable group and vulnerable group according to the level of loss experience and ego-integrity. Second, optimism, physical self-efficacy, existential spirituality and emotional support were seen to be significant variables in discriminating the groups. Third, the ego-integrity became higher as the variables related to resilience were increased.

The Family Network Types and Life Satisfaction of the Rural Elderly (농촌노인의 가족관계망 유형과 생활만족도)

  • Lee, Hae-Ja;Park, Kyung-Ae
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.291-307
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    • 2009
  • This study investigated the family network of elderly and its effects on the subjective life satisfaction in Rural Area. In order to classify the family network, the authors used the analysis technique of social network including to a spouse, children and grandchildren. In addition, the authors described basic characteristics of family network on the family type, interaction frequency, and interaction content. And then family network typified four types by K-means cluster analysis method according to characteristics of family network and examined difference on life satisfaction of the elderly persons according to the type of family network. The major results were as following. First, the elderly did contact his/her children often, emotional support revealed that highest support expectation of elderly. Second, The family network of elderly could be typified four types ; 'relation estranged type', 'children-grandchildren centered type', 'family dependent type', 'couples centered type' and statistically significant difference showed in life satisfaction according to each type. The result, in the 'couples centered type', the life satisfaction was highest; on the contrary, 'relation estranged type', it was lowest. Third, Influencing factors on life satisfaction of the old person were economic conditions, physical conditions, education level, sex, more frequent contacts with grandchild, emotional support expectation of spouses. The results of this study suggest that social welfare political and institutional efforts are needed to improve the relationship between older persons and their children, grandchildren and spouses and life satisfaction of the elderly.

A Study on Change Trajectories of Self-Rated Health in Middle Aged: Longitudinal Study Using Latent Class Growth Analysis (중·장년기 주관적 건강상태의 변화궤적 유형과 예측요인 탐색: 잠재계층성장분석(LCGA)을 이용한 종단연구)

  • Kim, Ho Jeong;Nam, Seok In
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.941-958
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to explore change trajectories patterns of Self-Rated Health in middle aged, to identify socioeconomic factors, self-esteem, family relationship factors, and to identify relevant predictors. For this purpose, the 2,418 middle aged, who married couples were extracted from the 2nd to 12st waves of Korea Welfare Panel Survey data. The data analysis included Latent Class Growth Analysis, multiple logistic regression. The change trajectories patterns of self-rated health in middle aged were classified into four types: (1) high state-retained type(46.3%), (2) low state-retained type(19.6%), (3) reduced type(17.5%), (4) increasing type(16.6%). Despite the control of chronic diseases that are closely related to health, when the low state-retained type, which is a crisis group, was set as the reference group for the self-rated health, the economic participation, self-esteem and satisfaction of the family relationship had a more inadequate effect than the high state-retained type. Likewise, when the reduced type, which is a crisis group, was set as the reference group for the self-rated health, the economic participation, self-esteem, satisfaction of the family relationship, and family stress had a more effect than the increasing type. Based on the analysis results, this study suggest political and practical intervention to maintain the proper health, and the details are as follows.