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Proposing a Technique for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis: Bayesian-GLS Regression (국내 지역 홍수빈도해석을 위한 기법 제안: Bayesian-GLS 회귀)

  • Jeong, Dae-Il;Stedinger, Jery R.;Kim, Young-Oh;Sung, Jang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.241-245
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    • 2007
  • 국내 홍수빈도 분포의 매개변수 추정에서 지점추정(at-site estimate) 방법은 유량 자료의 부족으로 발생하는 표본오차(sampling error)가 크기 때문에 충분한 유량 자료를 보유한 지점에 한하여 제한적으로 사용되고 있다. 대안으로 동질성을 가진 유역의 유량 자료를 모아 지역 매개변수를 추정하는 지수홍수법(Index Flood Method)이 제안되기도 하였으나, 이질성이 큰 우리나라의 유역특성 때문에 적용이 쉽지 않다. Stedinger와 Tasker가 1986년 제안한 GLS(Generalized Least Square) 기법은 유역을 동질지역으로 구분할 필요가 없으며 지점들간의 상관관계와 이분산성을 고려할 수 있어, 국내 홍수빈도 해석을 위해서 꼭 도입해야할 기법으로 생각된다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 GLS 기법의 단점을 보완한 Bayesian-GLS 기법을 이용하여, 국내 대유역에 골고루 위치하며 댐의 영향을 받지 않는 31개 지점의 연최대 일유량 시계열의 L-변동계수(L-moment coefficient variation)와 L-왜도계수(L-moment coefficient skewness)를 추정할 수 있는 회귀모형을 제안하였다. 위 회귀모형을 구성하기 위한 유역특성으로는 유역면적, 유역경사, 유역평균강우 등을 사용하였다. Bayesian-GLS (B-GLS) 적용 결과를 OLS(Ordinary Least Square) 및 Bayesian-GLS 기법에서 지점간의 상관관계를 고려하지 않는 Bayesian-WLS(Weighted Least Square)와 비교 평가하여 그 우수성을 입증하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제안된 B-GLS에 의한 지역회귀모형은 국내의 미계측유역이나 또는 관측 길이가 짧은 계측유역의 홍수빈도분석을 위해 매우 유용할 것으로 기대된다.년 홍수 피해가 발생하고 있지만, 다른 한편 인구밀도가 높고 1인당 가용 수자원이 상대적으로 적기 때문에 국지적 물 부족 문제를 경험하고 있다. 최근 국제적으로도 농업용수의 물 낭비 최소화와 절약 노력 및 타 분야 물 수요 증대에 대한 대응 능력 제고가 매우 중요한 과제로 부각되고 있다. 2006년 3월 멕시코에서 개최된 제4차 세계 물 포럼에서 국제 강 네트워크는 "세계 물 위기의 주범은 농경지", "농민들은 모든 물 위기 논의에서 핵심"이라고 주장하고, 전 프랑스 총리 미셀 로카르는 "...관개시설에 큰 문제점이 있고 덜 조방적 농업을 하도록 농민들을 설득해야 한다. 이는 전체 농경법을 바꾸는 문제..."(segye.com, 2006. 3. 19)라고 주장하는 등 세계 물 문제 해결을 위해서는 농업용수의 효율적 이용 관리가 중요함을 강조하였다. 본 연구는 이러한 국내외 여건 및 정책 환경 변화에 적극적으로 대처하고 물 분쟁에 따른 갈등해소 전략 수립과 효율적인 물 배분 및 이용을 위한 기초연구로서 농업용수 수리권과 관련된 법 및 제도를 분석하였다.. 삼요소의 시용 시험결과 그 적량은 10a당 질소 10kg, 인산 5kg, 및 가리 6kg 정도였으며 질소는 8kg 이상의 경우에는 분시할수록 비효가 높았으며 특히 벼의 후기 중점시비에 의하여 1수영화수와 결실율의 증대가 크게 이루어졌다. 3. 파종기와 파종량에 관한 시험결과는 공시품종선단의 파종적기는 4월 25일부터 5월 10일경까지 인데 이 기간중 일찍 파종하는 경우에 파종적량은 10a당 약 8${\ell}$이고 늦은 경우에는 12${\ell}$ 정도였다. 여기서 늦게 파종한 경우 감수의 가장 큰 원인은 1수영화수가 적어지기 때문이었다. 4. 건답직파에 대한 담수상태로 관수를 시작하는 적기는 파종후

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Analyzing the Location of Urban Neighborhood Parks Using GIS and AHP Techniques (GIS와 AHP 의사결정 방법을 이용한 도시 근린 공원의 입지 분석)

  • 홍성언;박수홍
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.849-860
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    • 2003
  • City's inhabitants should be able to utilize a variety of urban infrastructures and public facilities in a way of possessing the convenience, amenity, and safety of urban life. Most of the city government, however has established a policy for making and providing urban park facilities based on a very simple quantitative criteria rather than the qualitative criteria such as appropriateness, utility, accessibility, equity so far. Especially in the case of urban neighborhood parks, the usefulness to the inhabitant and accessibility to the parks may be questionable. In this study, we intended to analyze the spatial equity and distribution characteristics of urban neighborhood parks and to select several potential facility sites required in the study area using GIS's spatial analysis functions. Finally this study analyzes the possible location of an urban neighborhood park in terms of objective criteria and AHP techniques.

The Influence of Urban Environment on the Happiness Level of the Residents: Focused on 25 Boroughs(gu) in Seoul (지역주민들의 행복수준에 영향을 미치는 도시환경특성에 대한 실증분석: 서울시를 대상으로)

  • Lee, Woo-Min;Seo, Seung-Yeon;Lee, Kyung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.351-360
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this research is to suggest directions for urban planning and policies for the creation of a happy urban environment. To achieve this objective, this study extracted the urban environment characteristic elements that were expected to affect the levels of individual happiness and empirically analyzed the factors that affect the happiness levels of people. To determine the elements of the urban environment, this research analyzed the variables, urban environment characteristics, such as physical environment, natural environment, social environment, and individual characteristics. Regarding the physical environment of the city, a lower population density and a higher level of walking environment satisfaction showed a high level of individual happiness. In terms of the natural environment of the city, more spacious park areas and higher green area satisfaction showed a high level of individual happiness. Finally, regarding the social environment of the city, social trust was found to affect the happiness levels.

A Study on the Characteristics of Location and Space in Facilities for Impaired Persons in Chungcheongnam-Do (충청남도 중증장애인 거주시설의 입지 및 거주공간 특성 연구)

  • Lee, Kwang Soo;Lee, Jeong Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.199-208
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    • 2016
  • This paper proposes renovation guidelines for impaired persons' facilities in Chungcheongnam-Do by reviewing the conditions of the facilities based on the standard and deinstitutionalization trends in foreign facilities. The facilities were located far from the downtown of cities. Therefore, education and adaptation programs are necessary for these people to return to society. Recombining the rooms for a living room-oriented unit considering the structure system of the facilities allows good adaptation to home-based living conditions for impaired people. The area per person will be increases by renovations to a living room-oriented unit that makes upgrades to near foreign standards, such as The USA and The UK.

Conservation Values of Major Resources in the Korean DMZ and Its Vicinity (DMZ일원 주요 자원의 보전에 대한 지불의사액 추정 연구: 응답자의 지리적 이질성에 대한 검증)

  • Choi, Andy S.;Park, Eun-Jin
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.303-340
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    • 2010
  • The Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) of Korea has been crucial not only for its buffering role between two Koreas, but also for the conservation of various resources across its premises. The objectives of this study is threefold. The first objective is to identify major resources that determine economic values of the DMZ and its vicinity. The second and third objectives are respectively to estimate conservation values of those resources using Choice Modeling and to test whether or not respondents living in different geographical locations have significantly different willingness to pay for the conservation. In a very conservative estimation, results showed that Korean adults have about 55,000 Won on average for conserving five major resources : the DMZ area, endangered species, cultural heritage items and sites, the Truce Village, and villages in the Civilian Conroal Zone. This equals the aggregate economic value of about 2,07 trillion Won. Moreover, significant regional differences were found in public benefits from conserving these major resources.

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Urban Growth Prediction each Administrative District Considering Social Economic Development Aspect of Climate Change Scenario (기후변화시나리오의 사회경제발전 양상을 고려한 행정구역별 도시성장 예측)

  • Kim, Jin Soo;Park, So Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2013
  • Land-use/cover changes not only amplify or alleviate influence of climate changes but also they are representative factors to affect environmental change along with climate changes. Thus, the use of land-use/cover changes scenario, consistent climate change scenario is very important to evaluate reliable influences by climate change. The purpose for this study is to predict and analyze the future urban growth considering social and economic scenario from RCP scenario suggested by the 5th evaluation report of IPCC. This study sets land-use/cover changes scenario based on storyline from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenario. Urban growth rate for each scenario is calculated by urban area per person and GDP for the last 25 years and regression formula based on double logarithmic model. In addition, the urban demand is predicted by the future population and GDP suggested by the government. This predicted demand is spatially distributed by the urban growth probability map made by logistic regression. As a result, the accuracy of urban growth probability map is appeared to be 89.3~90.3% high and the prediction accuracy for RCP 4.5 showed higher value than that of RCP 8.5. Urban areas from 2020 to 2050 showed consistent growth while the rate of increasing urban areas for RCP 8.5 scenario showed higher value than that of RCP 4.5 scenario. Increase of urban areas is predicted by the fact that famlands are damaged. Especially RCP 8.5 scenario indicated more increase not only farmland but also forest than RCP 4.5 scenario. In addition, the decrease of farmland and forest showed higher level from metropolitan cities than province cities. The results of this study is believed to be used for basic data to clarify complex two-way effects quantitatively for future climate change, land-use/cover changes.

Present State of Turf Management of School Playgrounds in Gyeonggi Province of Korea (경기도내 천연잔디 학교 운동장 잔디관리 현황)

  • Han, Sang Wook;Soh, Ho Seob;Won, Seon Yi;Ju, Young Cheoul
    • Weed & Turfgrass Science
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2015
  • Forty schools having natural turf playgrounds were investigated by on-spot investigation and oral interviews with relevant school officials to find out basic information on turfgrass management practices of school playgrounds in Gyeonggi province. Average area of playground was $3,890m^2$ per school and $12m^2$ per student. Ninety five percent of turf playgrounds were managed by school staff and ninety percent of schools spent less than 5 million won per year for turf management. The difficulties in turfgrass management were considered as a major challenge for the schools, followed by turfgrass management cost. Among the management practices, school officials pointed out weed management as the most difficult work, followed by irrigation. The average number of fertilization and mowing was 2 and 6 times per year, respectively. About the half of playgrounds were irrigated only when there was wilting symptom. Zoysiagrass was the most popular choice for the school playgrounds and only three school playgrounds were established with pop-up irrigation system. Fourteen school playgrounds had good turf quality but the rest of school playgrounds had inadequate turf quality requiring minor or full renovation.

Socioeconomic vulnerability assessment of drought using principal component analysis and entropy method (주성분 분석 및 엔트로피 기법을 적용한 사회·경제적 가뭄 취약성 평가)

  • Kim, Ji Eun;Park, Ji Yeon;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.441-449
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    • 2019
  • Drought is a longer lasting and more extensive disaster than other natural disasters, resulting in significant socioeconomic damage. Even though drought events have same severity, their damage vary from region to region because of spatial, technical, economic, and social circumstances. In this study, drought vulnerability was assessed considering socioeconomic factors. Preliminary factors were identified from the case study for Chungcheong province, and evaluative factors were selected by applying the principal component analysis. The entropy method was applied to determine the weights of evaluative factors. As a result, in Chungcheong province, farm population, number of recipient of basic living, water fare gap indicator, area of industrial complex, amount of underground water usage, amount of water available per capita, water supply ratio, financial soundness for water resources, amount of domestic water usage, amount of agricultural water usage and agricultural land area were chosen as the evaluative factors. Among them, the factors associated with agriculture had larger weights. The overall assessment of vulnerability indicated that Cheongju, Dangjin and Seosan were the most vulnerable to drought.

A Study on the Factors affecting the Duration of Urban Redevelopment Projects - Based on the Project Area, Economic and Locational Characteristics - (도시정비형 재개발사업 소요기간의 영향요인 - 사업구역과 경제적 및 입지적 특성을 바탕으로 -)

  • Lee, Jaewon;Bae, Sangyoung;Jeong, Bosun;Lee, Sangyoub
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzed the influencing factors for urban redevelopment projects with a relatively long project duration in the context of Seoul's increasing urbanization rate and aging. Among the business areas that have been designated since 2005 and have been approved for the management and disposal plan of the entire Seoul area, 75 business areas have been set as targets. A hedonic price model was used to analyze the project area, economic, and locational characteristics as independent variables with the project duration from designation of zones to approval of management and disposal plans as dependent variables. As a result of the analysis, the smaller the project area, the larger the area occupied per union member, the larger the land price change rate, and the smaller the KOSPI index, the shorter the required period. This study has the distinction of empirically analyzing the effect of characteristic variables considering size and economic and locational characteristics on period. It provides implications that the area of the business area, the number of union members, and economic conditions should be considered when establishing a business area.

The Characteristic of Laws on the Kind of Urban Green Spaces and the Legal Requirements for the Green Spaces of Urban Habitat in China (중국의 도시녹지 종류와 도시거주구 녹지의 설치 기준에 관한 법제도의 현황과 특성)

  • Shin, Ick-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2013
  • This study investigated Chinese Laws on the kind of urban green spaces and the legal requirements for the green spaces of urban habitat and analyzed the specificities of them intending to provide basic data to suggest bringing in or not the relevant Chinese Laws to Korea. This study can be summarized as follows: First, the concept of Chinese urban green spaces(g.s.) classified by 5 kinds(park g.s., production g.s., protection g.s., attachment g.s., the others g.s.) placed the park and green spaces in the same category unlike the Korean urban green spaces that only distinguishes between park and green spaces. The Chinese Urban Park is classified by 4 kinds(composite park, community park, special park, linear park) at the 'Standard for urban green spaces classification' which is below in rank of the legal system. Second, in case of calculation for green spaces ratio of urban green spaces in China, the green rooftop landscaping area should not be included as a green spaces area except the rooftop of a basement or semi basement building to which residents have easy access. The green spaces requirements and compulsory secure ratio by 3 habitat kinds(habitat, small habit, minimum habitat) of when to act as a residential plan is regulated. Third, the green spaces system is obligated to establish at habitat green spaces plan and is specified to conserve and improve existing trees and green spaces. The green spaces ratio on reconstruction for old habitat is relaxed to be lower than for new habitat and a gradient of green spaces is peculiarly clarified. The details and requirements for establishment and the minimum area intending for each classes of the central green spaces(habitat park, children park, minimum habitat's green spaces) are regulated. Especially at a garden style of minimum habitat's green spaces, intervals between the south and north houses and a compulsory security for green spaces area classifying into two groups(closing type green spaces and open type green spaces) by a middle-rise or high-rise building are clarified. System of calculation for green spaces area is presented at a special regulation. Fourth, a general index(area/person) of public green spaces within habitat to achieve by 3 habitat kinds is determined, in this case, the index on reconstruction for a deterioration zone can be relaxed to be lower to the extent of a specified quantity. A location and scale, minimum width and minimum area per place of public green spaces are regulated. A space plot principle including adjacent to a road, greening area ratio against total area, security of open space and the shadow line boundary of sunshine are also regulated to intend for public green spaces. Fifth, the minimum horizontal distance between the underground cables and the surrounding greening trees are regulated as the considerable items for green spaces when setting up the underground cables. The principle to establish green spaces within public service facilities is regulated according to the kind of service contents. It shall be examined in order to import or not the special regulations that only exist in Chinese Laws but not in Korean Laws. The result of this study will contribute to gain the domestic landscape architect's' sympathy of the research related to Chinese urban green spaces laws requiring immediate attention and will be a good chance to advance into the internationalization of Korean Landscape Architectural Laws.