• Title/Summary/Keyword: 후보자와 유권자

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Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

On the Use of Q Methodology in Research on the Subjective Perceptions of Election Campaign Advertising (Q방법론을 활용한 공직선거 광고의 주관적 수용인식 유형)

  • Yang, Chang-Hoon;Lee, Jei-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to understand the utility of election campaign advertising by applying Q methodology that draw upon schematic model in subjectivity study. A survey was carried out among college students to classify the 16 selected Q-statements into a normal distribution using a 7 point scale. The collected data was analyzed using QUANL program, and principal component analysis using varimax rotation was used to identify the types of perceived utility of election campaign advertising. Type I can be categorized by a strong concern for the advertising technique improvement, Type II can be categorized by advocating for interest induction and Type III can be categorized by the truth inducement. The use of Q methodology provides insights into audience perceptions on the utility of election campaign advertising that would not be available through traditional methodologies and offers a foundation for audience involvement to address and overcome concerns about the utility of advertising for election campaign.

Analysis of public opinion in the 20th presidential election using YouTube data (유튜브 데이터를 활용한 20대 대선 여론분석)

  • Kang, Eunkyung;Yang, Seonuk;Kwon, Jiyoon;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.161-183
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    • 2022
  • Opinion polls have become a powerful means for election campaigns and one of the most important subjects in the media in that they predict the actual election results and influence people's voting behavior. However, the more active the polls, the more often they fail to properly reflect the voters' minds in measuring the effectiveness of election campaigns, such as repeatedly conducting polls on the likelihood of winning or support rather than verifying the pledges and policies of candidates. Even if the poor predictions of the election results of the polls have undermined the authority of the press, people cannot easily let go of their interest in polls because there is no clear alternative to answer the instinctive question of which candidate will ultimately win. In this regard, we attempt to retrospectively grasp public opinion on the 20th presidential election by applying the 'YouTube Analysis' function of Sometrend, which provides an environment for discovering insights through online big data. Through this study, it is confirmed that a result close to the actual public opinion (or opinion poll results) can be easily derived with simple YouTube data results, and a high-performance public opinion prediction model can be built.

A Exploratory Study on Big-data based Election Campaign Strategy Model in South Korea (빅데이터 기반 선거캠페인 전략에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Noh, Kyoo-Sung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2013
  • The victory of Barack Obama in the presidential reelection, in which he got closer to voters by scientific election strategy based on data, is making a new paradigm of this scientific election mechanism. But it is within bounds to say that Korean election has developed based on emotional confrontation, rather than on the confrontation of policy or personal qualification. This study suggests a Big data-based election campaign strategy in an effort to reduce the harmful consequences of Korean election and to settle down a desirable campaign culture. To do so, this study examines the actual status and problems of Korean politics and election campaign. And then it designs a Korean election strategy model using Big data as an alternative to break through the problems. Last, it discusses the plan to utilize Big data.

The Interaction Effects between News Frames and Community Structure on Vote Choice (지역공동체 구조와 뉴스프레임이 투표행위에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Cheong-Yi
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.17
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    • pp.37-60
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    • 2001
  • This study attempted to demonstrate the interaction effects between attitudinal frames of nine daily newspapers and community structure in the 1994s Michigan gubernatorial election. It was theoretically guided by framing research and the self-presentation theory of social-cognition perspective and empirically tested with archival data. For the purpose of this study, content analysis of nine statewide daily newspapers was employed in order to provide data on news framing. Data on voting rates for John Engler, winner of the 1994 Michigan Gubernatorial election, in each county of Michigan were used for vote choice while Michigan census data were used for constructing an Index of community structural differentiation. The results indicated that majority compliance frames were slightly more related with vote choice in homogeneous com-unities rather than were majority compliance frames in heterogeneous communities while social identification frames tended to have an influence on vote choice in heterogeneous communities more than did social identification frames in homogeneous communities.

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Analysis of the Influence of Presidential Candidate's SNS Reputation on Election Result: focusing on 19th Presidential Election (대선후보의 SNS 평판이 선거결과에 미치는 영향 분석 - 19대 대선을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Ye Na;Choi, Eun Jung;Kim, Myuhng Joo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.195-201
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    • 2018
  • Smartphones and PCs have become essential components of our daily life. People are expressing their opinions freely in SNS by using these devices. We are able to predict public opinions on specific subject by analyzing the related big data in SNS. In this paper, we have collected opinion data in SNS and analyzed reputation by text mining in order to make a prediction for the will of the people before 19th presidential election in South Korea. The result shows that our method makes more accurate estimate than other election polls.

Twitter's impact on the election of TV debates -18th presidential election TV debates- (TV토론회에서 트위터가 선거에 미치는 영향 -제18대 대통령 선거 TV토론회를 중심으로-)

  • Han, Chang-Jin;Kim, Kyoung-Soo
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.207-214
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    • 2013
  • It was the 18th presidential election TV debate Twitter participation of SNS. Began to diverge as the era of social media, combined with SNS through in the mass media, media web 2.0. Search tweets, retweets, while the formation of policy issues, the agenda of Twitter users to listen to the statements of the candidates using the Internet or a smartphone. The highest number of tweets immediately issue statements were made. Content during the progressive tweets core keywords you do not often discussed, followed by the negative information increases the number of tweets has become a policy issue. Top retweets was to evaluate the process of debate, regardless of the issue. Tweeter complements the TV so Twitter has made public opinion. Smart phones and SNS Twitter, combined with the TV and the participation and direct democracy, voters vote one instrument was realized. Should forward approval ratings, real-time Twitter subtitles on the TV screen in TV debate Twitter influence in the election will be greatly expanded.

Analysis of the effect of the mention in SNS on the result of election (SNS의 관심도가 선거결과에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Choi, Eun-Jung;Choi, Sea-Won;Lee, Se-Yeon;Kim, Myhung-Joo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.191-197
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    • 2017
  • As individual opinions are expressed and discussed through SNS, SNS is used as a new basis to estimate the direction of public opinion. This change also appears in election. So many voters state their views through SNS, so that candidates utilize it as a new space for communication. In this paper, positive mention in SNS were collected and analysed in the course of the election of Korean 20th Congressman, to understand how the mention on election in SNS affects the result of election. This result was compared with the traditional survey on public opinion, to find out which one more corresponds to the result. In conclusion, mention in SNS coincide more with the result of elelction than the traditional survey.

Dynamics in Election News Making: An Exploratory Study (선거보도의 역동성에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lee, Han Soo
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.155-188
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    • 2021
  • This study examines dynamics in election news making. It is important to understand when and how news media produce election news in order to grasp news making and voting behavior. The news media sometimes make election news by focusing on issues and policies. Often they frame elections as a game and focus on election strategies while covering elections. This article argues that as time goes by during the election period, the number of policy news tends to decrease while the frequency of strategic news is likely to increase. Also, TV's and newspapers show distinctive patterns of election news making. In order to examine the arguments, this study categorizes election news stories into policy and strategic news stories produced during the 2020 Korean congressional elections and constructs daily time-series data of them. The results of structural break and regression analyses partially support the arguments.

A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Media Use on the Evaluation of the Leading Candidate in the Korean 2007 Presidential Election -An Analysis of the Panel Data with Latent Growth Modeling- (미디어 이용이 후보자 평가에 미치는 영향에 대한 종단연구 -잠재성장모형을 통한 17대선 패널 데이터 분석을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Joo-Han;Kim, Min-Gyu;Jin, Young-Jae
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.44
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    • pp.76-107
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    • 2008
  • The present study has explored the effects of media use on the evaluation of the presidential candidate's morality. We hypothesized that the perception of the candidates' morality during the 2007 Korean President Election would be influenced by the amount of the different types of media use. Using a set of panel data, a total of 1,199 citizens (584 females (48.7%), 615 males (51.3%), Mage=42.77, SDage=13.34) were assessed four times from August to December in 2007. The results indicated that (a) the level of TV use for political information, the level of newspaper use for political information, and the level of Internet use for political information increased during the five months; (b) the initial level of political involvement contributed differently to the initial levels of media use; (c) the initial level of political involvement negative influenced the initial level of TV use for political information; (d) the growth of political involvement positively influenced the growth of TV use for political information; (e) the intial level of TV use for political information increased both the initial levels of the perception of candidates' morality and the change of the perception of candidates' morality; (f) the change of TV use for political information negatively affected the perception of candidates' morality; and (g) the initial level of Internet use for political information negatively affected the initial level of the perception of candidates' morality, and the change of Internet use for political information negatively affected the perception of candidates' morality.

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