• Journal of Korean Dental Hygiene Science
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.39-52
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• 2024

Background: Dental hygienists provide direct dental care in the closest proximity to the patient, and each practice requires a high level of focus and concentration. These skills are an important human resource that can impact the quality of dental care services. Since more than half of dental clinics provide as overtime work in addition to regular hours, this study aims to determine the association between working overtime and job performance for dental hygienists. Methods: The study was conducted using a combination of online and in-person surveys via Google Forms among 131 employed dental hygienists. The survey consisted of 7 questions on demographic and work characteristics, 16 questions on characteristics related to overtime and the effect of overtime on job security, health, and life, and 10 questions on job performance, for a total of 33 questions. Chi-square analysis and independent samples t-test were used to identify the characteristics of demographic and work characteristics, and descriptive statistics analysis was used for the characteristics of overtime. Independent samples t-test was used to test the difference in the mean of job performance according to whether or not they worked overtime, and linear regression analysis was used to show the association of working overtime and job performance. Results: The study found that 71% of dental clinics worked overtime. The average number of overtime per week was once (78.5%), and the most common problems with overtime were fatigue (52.7%) and lack of personal and leisure time (41.9%). The appropriate number of overtime per week considered by dental hygienists was once a week, which was confirmed to be 94.6%. When comparing job performance by overtime status, those who worked overtime were 3.38 points higher than those who did not (35.45 vs. 32.07). Multiple linear regression analysis of the association of working overtime night and job performance showed that a one-unit increase in worked overtime was associated with a statistically significant increase in job performance of about 3.1 (p<0.01). Conclusion: Working overtime was found to have a positive effect on job performance among dental hygienists. Therefore, as a way to improve the working environment, providing appropriate compensation or welfare for overtime can reduce the negative aspects of overtime and turn it into a positive influence on job performance. This could ultimately raise awareness of the dental hygienist as a professional and effect the efficiency of dental care services.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.637-648
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• 2024

The frequency of extreme weather events such as heavy and extreme rainfall has been increasing due to global climate change. Accordingly, it is essential to quantify hydrometeorological variables for efficient water resource management. Among the various hydro-meteorological variables, Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Evapotranspiration (ET) play key roles in understanding the interaction between the surface and the atmosphere. In Korea, LST and ET are mainly observed through ground-based stations, which also have limitation in obtaining data from ungauged watersheds, and thus, it hinders to estimate spatial behavior of LST and ET. Alternatively, remote sensing-based methods have been used to overcome the limitation of ground-based stations. In this study, we evaluated the applicability of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) LST and ET data estimated across Korea (from July 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022). For validation, we utilized NASA's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and eddy covariance flux tower observations managed by agencies under the Ministry of Environment of South Korea. Overall, results indicated that ECOSTRESS-based LSTs showed similar temporal trends (R: 0.47~0.73) to MODIS and ground-based observations. The index of agreement also showed a good agreement of ECOSTRESS-based LST with reference datasets (ranging from 0.82 to 0.91), although it also revealed distinctive uncertainties depending on the season. The ECOSTRESS-based ET demonstrated the capability to capture the temporal trends observed in MODIS and ground-based ET data, but higher Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error were also exhibited. This is likely due to the low acquisition rate of the ECOSTRESS data and environmental factors such as cooling effect of evapotranspiration, overestimation during the morning. This study suggests conducting additional validation of ECOSTRESS-based LST and ET, particularly in topographical and hydrological aspects. Such validation efforts could enhance the practical application of ECOSTRESS for estimating basin-scale LST and ET in Korea.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.1-20
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• 2013

Nowadays, social network is a huge communication platform for providing people to connect with one another and to bring users together to share common interests, experiences, and their daily activities. Users spend hours per day in maintaining personal information and interacting with other people via posting, commenting, messaging, games, social events, and applications. Due to the growth of user's distributed information in social network, there is a great potential to utilize the social data to enhance the quality of recommender system. There are some researches focusing on social network analysis that investigate how social network can be used in recommendation domain. Among these researches, we are interested in taking advantages of the interaction between a user and others in social network that can be determined and known as social relationship. Furthermore, mostly user's decisions before purchasing some products depend on suggestion of people who have either the same preferences or closer relationship. For this reason, we believe that user's relationship in social network can provide an effective way to increase the quality in prediction user's interests of recommender system. Therefore, social relationship between users encountered from social network is a common factor to improve the way of predicting user's preferences in the conventional approach. Recommender system is dramatically increasing in popularity and currently being used by many e-commerce sites such as Amazon.com, Last.fm, eBay.com, etc. Collaborative filtering (CF) method is one of the essential and powerful techniques in recommender system for suggesting the appropriate items to user by learning user's preferences. CF method focuses on user data and generates automatic prediction about user's interests by gathering information from users who share similar background and preferences. Specifically, the intension of CF method is to find users who have similar preferences and to suggest target user items that were mostly preferred by those nearest neighbor users. There are two basic units that need to be considered by CF method, the user and the item. Each user needs to provide his rating value on items i.e. movies, products, books, etc to indicate their interests on those items. In addition, CF uses the user-rating matrix to find a group of users who have similar rating with target user. Then, it predicts unknown rating value for items that target user has not rated. Currently, CF has been successfully implemented in both information filtering and e-commerce applications. However, it remains some important challenges such as cold start, data sparsity, and scalability reflected on quality and accuracy of prediction. In order to overcome these challenges, many researchers have proposed various kinds of CF method such as hybrid CF, trust-based CF, social network-based CF, etc. In the purpose of improving the recommendation performance and prediction accuracy of standard CF, in this paper we propose a method which integrates traditional CF technique with social relationship between users discovered from user's behavior in social network i.e. Facebook. We identify user's relationship from behavior of user such as posts and comments interacted with friends in Facebook. We believe that social relationship implicitly inferred from user's behavior can be likely applied to compensate the limitation of conventional approach. Therefore, we extract posts and comments of each user by using Facebook Graph API and calculate feature score among each term to obtain feature vector for computing similarity of user. Then, we combine the result with similarity value computed using traditional CF technique. Finally, our system provides a list of recommended items according to neighbor users who have the biggest total similarity value to the target user. In order to verify and evaluate our proposed method we have performed an experiment on data collected from our Movies Rating System. Prediction accuracy evaluation is conducted to demonstrate how much our algorithm gives the correctness of recommendation to user in terms of MAE. Then, the evaluation of performance is made to show the effectiveness of our method in terms of precision, recall, and F1-measure. Evaluation on coverage is also included in our experiment to see the ability of generating recommendation. The experimental results show that our proposed method outperform and more accurate in suggesting items to users with better performance. The effectiveness of user's behavior in social network particularly shows the significant improvement by up to 6% on recommendation accuracy. Moreover, experiment of recommendation performance shows that incorporating social relationship observed from user's behavior into CF is beneficial and useful to generate recommendation with 7% improvement of performance compared with benchmark methods. Finally, we confirm that interaction between users in social network is able to enhance the accuracy and give better recommendation in conventional approach.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.221-234
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• 1983

A study was conducted to devise a method to estimate the edible meat weight in live broilers. White Cornish broiler chicks CC, Single Comb White Leghorn egg strain chicks LL, and two reciprocal cross breeds of these two parent stocks (CL and LC) were employed A total of 240 birds, 60 birds from each breed, were reared and sacrificed at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 weeks of ages in order to measure various body parameters. Results obtained from this study were summarized as follows. 1) The average body weight of CC and LL were 1,820g and 668g, respectively, at 8 weeks of age. The feed to gain ratios for CC and LL were 2.24 and 3.28, respectively. 2) The weight percentages of edible meat to body weight were 34.7, 36.8 and 37.5% at 6, 8 and 10 weeks of ages, respectively, for CC. The values for LL were 30.7, 30.5 and 32.3%, respectively, The CL and LC were intermediate in this respect. No significant differences were found among four breeds employed. 3) The CC showed significantly smaller weight percentages than did the other breeds in neck, feather, and inedible viscera. In comparison, the LL showed the smaller weight percentages of leg and abdominal fat to body weight than did the others. No significant difference was found among breeds in terms of the weight percentages of blood to body weight. With regard to edible meat, the CC showed significantly heavier breast and drumstick, and the edible viscera was significantly heavier in LL. There was no consistent trend in neck, wing and back weights. 4) The CC showed significantly larger measurements body shape components than did the other breeds at all time. Moreover, significant difference was found in body shape measurements between CL and LC at 10 weeks of age. 5) All of the measurements of body shape components except breast angle were highly correlated with edible meat weight. Therefore, it appeared to be possible to estimate the edible meat wight of live chickens by the use of these values. 6) The optimum regression equations for the estimation of edible meat weight by body shape measurements at 10 weeks of age were as follows. $$Y_{cc}=-1,475.581 +5.054X_{26}+3.080X_{24}+3.772X_{25}+14.321X_{35}+1.922X_{27}(R^2=0.88)$$ $$Y_{LL}=-347.407+4.549X_{33}+3.003X_{31}(R^2=0.89)$$ $$Y_{CL}=-1,616.793+4.430X_{24}+8.566X_{32}(R^2=0.73)$$ $$Y_{LC}=-603.938+2.142X_{24}+3.039X_{27}+3.289X_{33}(R^2=0.96)$$ Where $X_{24}$=chest girth, $X_{25}$=breast width, $X_{26}$=breast length, $X_{27}$=keel length, $X_{31}$=drumstick girth, $X_{32}$=tibotarsus length, $X_{33}$=shank length, and $X_{35}$=shank diameter. 7) The breed and age factors caused considerable variations in assessing the edible meat weight in live chicken. It seems however that the edible meat weight in live chicken can be estimated fairly accurately with optimum regression equations derived from various body shape measurements.

• Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.30-40
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• 2000

Purpose: During the first year of life, cow's milk protein is the major offender causing food allergy. Cow's milk allergy (CMA) affects 2~7% of infants, of which approximately one-half show predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms. We studied the clinical types of cow's milk allergy with predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms (CMA-GI) of childhood. Methods: The retrospective study was performed on 30 (male 22, female 8) patients who had diagnosed as CMA-GI during 2 years and 3 months from March 1995 to June 1997. Results: 1) Children with CMA-GI presented in the three types of clinical manifestation on the basis of time to reaction to milk ingestion: Quick (Q) onset (5 cases), Slow (S) onset (20 cases), Quick & Slow (Q&S) (5 cases). 2) Age on admission of the three groups was significantly different (p<0.05): (Q onset: $81.4{\pm}67.1$ days, S onset: $31.9{\pm}12.7$ days, Q&S: $366.0{\pm}65.0$ days). Although the body weight at birth was 10~95 percentile in all patients, body weight on admission was different: (Q onset: 10~50 percentile, S onset: below 10 percentile, Q&S: 10~25 percentile). S onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05) and 90% of this one was failure to thrive below 3 percentile. 3) Peripheral leukocyte counts were as followings: (Q onset: $5,700{\sim}12,300/mm^3$, S onset: $10,000{\sim}33,400/mm^3$, Q&S: $5,200{\sim}14,900/mm^3$). Slow onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05). Serum albumin levels on admission were as followings: (Q onset: $4.2{\pm}0.4\;g/dl$, S onset: $3.0{\pm}0.3\;g/dl$, Q&S: $4.0{\pm}0.3\;g/dl$). S onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05) and 85% of this one was below 3.5 g/dl. 4) Although morphometrical analysis on small intestinal mucosa did not show enteropathy in Q onset and Q&S groups, all cases of S onset revealed enteropathy: 45% of this one showed subtotal villous atrophy, 55 % showed partial villous atrophy. 5) Allergic reaction test to other foods was not performed in S onset group because of ethical problem and high risk in general condition. In Q onset group, allergic reaction to one or two other foods: soy formula, weaning formula and eggs. Q&S goup revealed allergic reactions to several foods or to most of all foods except protein hydrolysate formula: eggs, potatos, some kinds of sea food, apples, carrots, beef and chicken. 6) Serum IgE level, peripheral eosinophil counts, milk RAST, soy RAST, skin test were not significantly different among groups. Conclusion: CMA-GI may present in three clinical ways on the basis of time to reaction to milk ingestion, typical clinical findings and morphologic changes in the small bowel mucosal biopsy specimens. This clinical subdivision might be helpful in diagnostic and therapeutic approaches in CMA-GI. Early suspicion is mandatory especially in S onset type because of high risks with malnutrition and enteropathy.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.47
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• pp.15-32
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• 2002

The endeavors enhancing the grain quality of high-yielding japonica rice were steadily continued during 1980s-1990s along with the self-sufficiency of rice production and the increasing demands of high-quality rices. During this time, considerably great progress and success was obtained in development of high-quality japonica cultivars and quality evaluation techniques including the elucidation of interrelationship between the physicochemical properties of rice grain and the physical or palatability components of cooked rice. In 1990s, some high-quality japonica rice cultivars and special rices adaptable for food processing such as large kernel, chalky endosperm, aromatic and colored rices were developed and its objective preference and utility was also examined by a palatability meter, rapid-visco analyzer and texture analyzer, Recently, new special rices such as extremely low-amylose dull or opaque non-glutinous endosperm mutants were developed. Also, a high-lysine rice variety was developed for higher nutritional utility. The water uptake rate and the maximum water absorption ratio showed significantly negative correlations with the K/Mg ratio and alkali digestion value(ADV) of milled rice. The rice materials showing the higher amount of hot water absorption exhibited the larger volume expansion of cooked rice. The harder rices with lower moisture content revealed the higher rate of water uptake at twenty minutes after soaking and the higher ratio of maximum water uptake under the room temperature condition. These water uptake characteristics were not associated with the protein and amylose contents of milled rice and the palatability of cooked rice. The water/rice ratio (in w/w basis) for optimum cooking was averaged to 1.52 in dry milled rices (12% wet basis) with varietal range from 1.45 to 1.61 and the expansion ratio of milled rice after proper boiling was average to 2.63(in v/v basis). The major physicochemical components of rice grain associated with the palatability of cooked rice were examined using japonica rice materials showing narrow varietal variation in grain size and shape, alkali digestibility, gel consistency, amylose and protein contents, but considerable difference in appearance and texture of cooked rice. The glossiness or gross palatability score of cooked rice were closely associated with the peak, hot paste and consistency viscosities of viscosities with year difference. The high-quality rice variety "IIpumbyeo" showed less portion of amylose on the outer layer of milled rice grain and less and slower change in iodine blue value of extracted paste during twenty minutes of boiling. This highly palatable rice also exhibited very fine net structure in outer layer and fine-spongy and well-swollen shape of gelatinized starch granules in inner layer and core of cooked rice kernel compared with the poor palatable rice through image of scanning electronic microscope. Gross sensory score of cooked rice could be estimated by multiple linear regression formula, deduced from relationship between rice quality components mentioned above and eating quality of cooked rice, with high probability of determination. The $\alpha$-amylose-iodine method was adopted for checking the varietal difference in retrogradation of cooked rice. The rice cultivars revealing the relatively slow retrogradation in aged cooked rice were IIpumbyeo, Chucheongyeo, Sasanishiki, Jinbubyeo and Koshihikari. A Tonsil-type rice, Taebaegbyeo, and a japonica cultivar, Seomjinbyeo, showed the relatively fast deterioration of cooked rice. Generally, the better rice cultivars in eating quality of cooked rice showed less retrogradation and much sponginess in cooled cooked rice. Also, the rice varieties exhibiting less retrogradation in cooled cooked rice revealed higher hot viscosity and lower cool viscosity of rice flour in amylogram. The sponginess of cooled cooked rice was closely associated with magnesium content and volume expansion of cooked rice. The hardness-changed ratio of cooked rice by cooling was negatively correlated with solids amount extracted during boiling and volume expansion of cooked rice. The major physicochemical properties of rice grain closely related to the palatability of cooked rice may be directly or indirectly associated with the retrogradation characteristics of cooked rice. The softer gel consistency and lower amylose content in milled rice revealed the higher ratio of popped rice and larger bulk density of popping. The stronger hardness of rice grain showed relatively higher ratio of popping and the more chalky or less translucent rice exhibited the lower ratio of intact popped brown rice. The potassium and magnesium contents of milled rice were negatively associated with gross score of noodle making mixed with wheat flour in half and the better rice for noodle making revealed relatively less amount of solid extraction during boiling. The more volume expansion of batters for making brown rice bread resulted the better loaf formation and more springiness in rice breed. The higher protein rices produced relatively the more moist white rice bread. The springiness of rice bread was also significantly correlated with high amylose content and hard gel consistency. The completely chalky and large grain rices showed better suitability far fermentation and brewing. The glutinous rice were classified into nine different varietal groups based on various physicochemical and structural characteristics of endosperm. There was some close associations among these grain properties and large varietal difference in suitability to various traditional food processing. Our breeding efforts on improvement of rice quality for high palatability and processing utility or value-adding products in the future should focus on not only continuous enhancement of marketing and eating qualities but also the diversification in morphological, physicochemical and nutritional characteristics of rice grain suitable for processing various value-added rice foods.ice foods.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.729-737
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• 2008

The purposes of this study were to investigate supporting status and subsidy for school food service and to analyze the perception of school food service officials at the educational board on using rice bread to the school food service menu. The questionnaire was developed by content analysis, situation analysis, in-depth interview and checked by the school food service officials at the educational board. The questionnaires were responded by 33 officials (respondent rate: 86.8%) during September 1 to October 26 in 2007. The major findings of this study were as follows: First, most of the respondents were women (93.9%), and worked an average of 104.36 months at school-related work. The metropolitan & provincial office of education had prevalently jurisdiction over 272.3 rural and self-operation type of elementary schools, 115.50 rural and self-operation type of middle schools and 73.0 rural and self-operation type of high schools. In the case of the district office of education, 23.3 urban and self-operation type of elementary schools, 11.6 urban and self-operation type of middle schools and 5.3 urban and contracted type of high schools were averagely managed. Second, all the respondents supported meal cost for low-income group and 50.5% provided reimbursement for organic environmental agricultural products. The highest subsidy was 16.8 billion won as meal cost for low-income group in metropolitan & provincial office and 1,050 million won as labor cost in district office. Third, the experience of performing policies for using rice was relatively lower than perception of rice bread application to school food service menu. Fourth, the advantages of using rice bread were acceleration of consuming rice (32.0%), excellence of nutrition (24.0%) and promotion of healthy image (22.7%). On the other hand, the difficulties of using rice bread were lack of facilities (72.7%), higher cost compared to wheat bread (54.5%), limitation of menu application and cooking method (15.7% each). Fifth, the opinion of utilizing rice and that of applying rice bread were significantly correlated (p<0.001). Desirability and willingness were correlated with reality for applying rice bread to the school food service menu (p<0.001). Also, comparative analysis between divided groups by perception of utilizing rice showed that willingness and experience were significantly different.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.29-73
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• 2012

Aviation safety is the State and industry's top priority and more scientific approaches for fatigue management should be needed. There are lately various studies and regulation changes for crew fatigue management with ICAO, FAA and EASA. ICAO issued the provisions of fatigue management for flight crew since 1st edition, 1969, of Annex 6 operation of aircraft as a Standards and Recommended practice(SARPs). Unfortunately, there have been few changes and improvement to fatigue management provisions since the time they were first introduced. However the SARPs have been big changed lately. ICAO published guidance materials for development of prescriptive fatigue regulations through amendment 33A of Annex 6 Part 1 as applicable November 19th 2009. And then ICAO introduced additional amendment for using Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS) with $35^{th}$ amendment in 2011. According to the Annex 6, the State of the operator shall establish a) regulations for flight time, flight duty period, duty period and rest period limitations and b) FRMS regulations. The Operator shall implement one of following 3 provisions a) flight time, flight duty period, duty period and rest period limitations within the prescriptive fatigue management regulations established by the State of the Operator; or b) a FRMS; or c) a combination of a) and b). U.S. FAA recently published several kinds of Advisory Circular about flightcrew fatigue. U.S. passed "Airline Safety and FAA Extension Act of 2010" into law on August 1st, 2010. This mandates all commercial air carriers to develop a FAA-acceptable Fatigue Risk Management Plan(FRMP) by October 31st, 2010. Also, on May 16, 2012, the FAA published a final rule(correction) entitled 'Flightcrew Member Duty and Rest Requirements; correction to amend its existing prescriptive regulations. The new requirements are required to implement same regulations for domestic, flag and supplemental operations from January 4, 2014. EASA introduced a Notice of Proposed Amendment (NPA) 2010-14 entitled "Draft opinion of the European Aviation Safety Agency for a Commission Regulation establishing the implementing rules on Flight and Duty Time Limitations and Rest Requirements for Commercial Air Transport with aeroplanes" on December 10, 2010. The purpose of this NPA is to develop and implement fatigue management for commercial air transport operations. Comparing with Korean and foreign regulations regarding fatigue management, the provisions of ICAO, FAA, EASA are more considering various fatigue factors and conditions. Korea regulations should be needed for some development of insufficiency points. In this thesis, I present the results of the comparative study between domestic and foreign regulations in respect of fatigue management crew member. Also, I suggest legal proposals for amendment of Korea Aviation act and Enforcement Regulations concerning fatigue management for crew members. I hope that this paper is helpful to change korea fatigue regulations, to enhance aviation safety, and to reduce the number of accidents relating to fatigue. Fatigue should be managed at all level such as regulators, experts, operators and pilots. Authority should change surveillance mind-set from regulatory auditor to expert adviser. Operators should identify various fatigue factors and consider to crew scheduling them. Crews should strongly manage both individual and duty-oriented fatigue issues.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.344-349
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• 2016

This study was conducted to evaluate the possibility of expanding the usage of whole crop silage from beef cattle and dairy cow to hogs and chickens. For this purpose, a crushing device was developed to crush whole crop silage. The crushed silage was sealed, and analyzed for its feed value. The silage varieties used for the experiment included Saessal barley and Geumgang wheat. Whole crop barley and wheat were crushed in the crushing system as a whole without separating stems, leaves, grains, etc.. When the crushed whole crop silages (CWCS) were analyzed, full grain, grains above 10 mm in size, grains 5~10 mm in size, and grains below 5 mm in size accounted for, 20%, 4%, 27%, and 49 %, respectively. In order to facilitate the fermentation of CWCS, inoculated some fermenter into each CWCS sample (barley or wheat). As control, another set of sample was not inoculated. Crude protein (CP), ether extract (EE), crude fiber (CF), neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF), lignin, cellulose content, total digestible nutrient (TDN), and relative feed value (RFV) of fermenter-inoculated Saessal barley were 2.45 %, 1.61%, 8.95%, 16.94%, 9.52%, 1.01%, 8.51%, 81.38%, and 447.5%, respectively. The CP, EE, CF, NDF, ADF, lignin, cellulose content, TDN, and RFV in the other sample of Saessal barley without inoculation of fermenter were 2.57%, 1.62%, 9.61%, 18.25%, 10.13%, 1.10%, 9.04%, 80.90%, and 412.9%, respectively. The CP, EE, CF, NDF, ADF, lignin, cellulose content, TDN, and RFV of fermenter-inoculated Geumgang wheat sample were 2.43%, 1.27%, 10.99%, 19.49%, 11.23%, 1.46%, 9.77%, 80.03%, and 382.6%, respectively. The CP, EE, CF, NDF, ADF, lignin, cellulose content, TDN, RFV of the other set sample of Geumgang wheat sample without the inoculation of fermenter were 2.28%, 1.44%, 10.08%, 18.02%, 10.44%, 1.26%, 9.18%, 80.65%, and 416.9%, respectively. The TDN and RFV content in the fermenter-inoculated Saessal barley were 81.38% and 447.5%, respectively, while the one in the fermenter-inoculated Geumgang wheat were 80.03% and 382.6% respectively. When the feed value of whole crop barley and wheat silage without crushing process was compared to the feed value of whole crop barley and wheat silage made from crushing system, the latter appeared to be higher than the former. This could be due to the process of sealing the crushed silage which might have minimized air content between samples and shortened the golden period of fermentation. In conclusion, these results indicate that a crushing process might be needed to facilitate fermentation and improve the quality of silage when making whole crop silage.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.