• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.74-82
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• 2011

The Bass model is a cornerstone in diffusion theory which is used for forecasting demand of durables or new services. Three well-known estimation methods for parameters of the Bass model are Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Nonlinear Least Square (NLS). In this paper, a hybrid method incorporating OLS and NLS is presented and it's performance is analyzed and compared with OLS and NLS by using simulation data and empirical data. The results show that NLS has the best performance in terms of accuracy and our hybrid method has the best performance in terms of stability. Specifically, hybrid method has better performance with less data. This result means much in practical aspect because the avaliable data is little when a diffusion model is used for forecasting demand of a new product.

• Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.101-110
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• 2015

Parameters of mating system and pollen flow of a Pinus densiflora population in Buan, South Korea, were estimated using seven nuclear microsatellite markers. The expected heterozygosity ($H_e$) was 0.614 in mother trees and 0.624 in seeds. Fixation index (F) was 0.018 and 0.087 in each generation. There was no significant genetic difference between the generations (P > 0.05). From MLTR, the outcrossing rate ($t_m$), the biparental inbreeding ($t_m-t_s$), and the correlation of paternity ($r_p$) were 0.967, 0.057, and 0.012, respectively. tm was larger but $t_m-t_s$ and $r_p$ were smaller than those of allozyme markers in Pinus densiflora. These values were similar to those of microsatellite markers in other pine species. The optimal pollen dispersal model from TwoGener was the normal dispersal model with the effective density of 220 trees/ha and its level of genetic differentiation in pollen pool structure (${\Phi}_{ft}$) was 0.021. The average radial distance of pollen flow (${\delta}$) was calculated as 11.42 m, but no correlation between the pairwise-${\Phi}_{ft}$ and the geographical distance among mother trees was at Mantel test (r = -0.141, P > 0.05). Although the effective pollen dispersal in the population seems to be restricted, the amount of genetic variation might be maintained in each generation without a loss of genetic diversity. It might be because the genetic diversity in pollen pool was high but the genetic difference between pollen donors was small under the complete random mating condition in the Pinus densiflora population in Buan.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.285-293
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• 2009

This research had been executed to find out the structure of Magnolia obovata community, a dispersal range and characteristics of scatter investigation, and to prepare management measure of it. In the result of this study, Magnolia obovata was distributed in a native plant community from planting trees of UNESCO Peace Center. The maximum numbers of Magnolia obovata were found in $20{\sim}100m$ from trees of mother. Seed of Magnolia obovata has a characteristics of gravity dispersal. But some individuals was found in 420m from its tree of mother. Seeds of Magnolia obovata has a characteristics of animal dispersal, too. Major species of animal dispersal are Garrulus glandarius, Ciurus vulgaris coreae, and Tamias sibiricus asiaticus in the study site. The importance value between native plants and Magnolia obovata had a negative relation. Because Magnolia obovata is more shade tolerant than other trees. Also, the growth of Magnolia obovata is faster than other trees. And so if the influence of Magnolia obovata reduce, it is necessary to expand native plant community, and to cut Magnolia obovata over 10m of the height and over 10cm of the DBH, for preventing influence of Magnolia obovata.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.365-373
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• 2009

Since 1990, identifying the sex of fetus and illegal abortion has brought the sex ratio imbalance at birth in Korea due to a notion of preferring a son to a daughter, socio-economic development, population policy, and so forth. Although there have been many researches such as time series analysis and region difference analysis to monitor this sex ratio imbalance, they have a defect that time and space could not be included in the analysis simultaneously. This study analyzes the sex ratio imbalance at birth, taking into account time and region at the same time. The analysis considered the numbers of male and female babies, who were born as the third or latter in their families, in 2000 and 2001 at 234 Gu / Si / Goon administrative districts. Here, we suggest a mixture model of binomial distributions, assuming heterogeneous populations. The estimation of the location parameters, weights and correlation coefficient of the mixture model is conducted by the EM algorithm, and the heterogeneity of the regions is expressed as a picture using ArcView GIS.

• Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.703-718
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• 2011

Team-Based Learning can play an important role in gifted education, because that improve decision making, coordination and problem-solving ability through shapely team activity. So, when a program that founded on Team-Based Learning applied to gifted students, investigated the improved effects of creative problem solving ability. Developed programs consisted of total 10 times and were conducted the lesson for 13student (male 3, female 10) of 4, 5th grade gifted students class in S elementary school, Sancheong-gun. The improved effects of creative problem solving ability were selected as the self-checking tool of creative problem-solving ability. Due to a small number of students, nonparametric test has done with the results of before and after, it showed significantly improvements in significance level of 5%. In particular, there was a significant improvement in the field of divergent thinking, critical logical thinking. Therefore, the programs based on Team-Based Learning are effective for enhance creative problem solving ability of gifted students, they will be used widely in the classroom to require creative problem solving ability or the acquisition of knowledge of gifted students.

• Water for future
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.185-194
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• 1995

The objective of this study is to explore scale problem and to analyze the relations between scale and geomorphologic parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. Generally, measurement and calculation of geomorphologic parameters rely on and are sensitive to the resolution of source information available. Therefore, rainfall-runoff models using geomorphologic parameters should take account of the effects of the map scale used in their development. The derived rainfall-runoff model considering scale problem in this research is the GIUH type model, that is a basin IUH consisting of the channel network response and hillslope response. The cannel network response is computed by means of the diffusion analogy transformed from linearized St. Venant equation and hillslope response is calculated by 2-parameter gamma distribution function. Representing geomorphologic structure of the channel network and initial distribution of its response is width function. This width function is derived by fractal theory and Melton's law to consider scale problems and is weighted by the source location function (SLF) proposed in this research to increase the applicability.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.6 no.8
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• pp.2060-2071
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• 1999

The complicate software failure system is defined to the superposition of the points of failure from several component point process. Because the likelihood function is difficulty in computing, we consider Gibbs sampler using iteration sampling based method. For each observed failure epoch, we applied to latent variables that indicates with component of the superposition mode. For model selection, we explored the posterior Bayesian criterion and the sum of relative errors for the comparison simple pattern with superposition model. A numerical example with NHPP simulated data set applies the thinning method proposed by Lewis and Shedler[25] is given, we consider Goel-Okumoto model and Weibull model with GOS, inference of parameter is studied. Using the posterior Bayesian criterion and the sum of relative errors, as we would expect, the superposition model is best on model under diffuse priors.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.12 no.12
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• pp.427-434
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• 2021

This study was conducted to investigate the job-performance of manual wheelchair post-management and to find out the relationship between job-performance and vocational ability of people with developmental disabilities. In this study, situational evaluation and vocational evaluation were conducted for 9 subjects participated in the vocational training program about manual wheelchair post-management. The data was analyzed by non-parametric statistical processing. As a result, the job-performance was an average of 80.87%. The job-performance had a positive correlations with visual closure, kinesthetic integration, and basic concepts(p<.05). The relationship between job-performance and vocational abilities can be used as basic data for vocational training program and job assignment. It is expected to be useful of spreading the post-management job for assistive technology devices in the local community activated through the convergence of assistive technology and vocational rehabilitation.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.271-280
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• 2014

Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and fatal viral livestock disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals domestic and wild and the FMD outbreak in Korea in 2010/2011 was a disastrous incident for the country and the economy. Thus, efforts at the national level are put to prevent foot-and-mouth disease and to reduce the damage in the case of outbreak. As one of these efforts, it is useful to study the spread of the disease by using probabilistic model. In fact, after the FMD epidemic in the UK occurred in 2001, many studies have been carried on the spread of the disease using a variety of stochastic models as an effort to prepare future outbreak of FMD. However, for the FMD outbreak in Korea occurred in 2010/2011, there are few study by utilizing probabilistic model. This paper assumes a stochastic spatial-temporal susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model for the 2010/2011 FMD outbreak to understand spread of the disease. Since data on infections of FMD disease during 2010/2011 outbreak of Aniaml and Plant Quarantine Agency and on the livestock farms from the nationwide census in 2011 of Statistics Korea do not have detail informations on address or missing values, we generate detail information on address by randomly allocating farms within corresponding Si/Gun area. The kernel function is estimated using the infection data and by using simulations, the susceptibility and transmission of the spatial-temporal stochastic SIR models are determined.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.777-789
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• 2020

COVID-19 has been rapidly spread world wide since late December 2019. In this paper, our interest is to estimate distribution of incubation time defined as period between infection of virus and the onset. Due to the limit of accessibility and asymptomatic feature of COVID-19 virus, the exact infection and onset time are not always observable. For estimation of incubation time, interval censoring technique is implemented. Furthermore, a competing risk model is applied to estimate the case fatality and cure fraction. Based on the result, the mean incubation time is about 5.4 days and the fatality rate is higher for older and male patient and the cure rate is higher at younger,female and asymptomatic patient.