• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.159-165
• /
• 1987

This study proposes an operational method of typhoon risk assessments in Korea, using Statistical analysis and probabilistic description of typhoon at a site. Two alternative simulation and fitting methods are discussed to predict the probabilistic typhoon wind speeds by indirect methods. A Commonly used indirect method is Russell's procedure, which generates about 1,000 Simulation data for typhoon winds, statistically evaluate the base-line distribution, and then fits the results to the Weibull distribution based on probabilistic description of climatological Characteristics and Wind field model of typhoon at a site. However, an alternative procedure proposed in this Paper simulates extreme typhoon wind data of about 150~200 years and directly fits the generated data to the Weibull distribution. The computational results show that the proposed simulation method is more economical and reasonable for typhoon risk-assessment based on the indirect method. And using the proposed indirect method, the probabilistic design wind speed for transmission towers in typhoon-prone region along the South-Western coast is investigated.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2009.07a
• /
• pp.2027_2028
• /
• 2009

본 연구에서는 한국수자원공사 고압회전기 고정자권선 절연체의 진단데이터에 대한 통계적 분석연구에 관하여 설명하고 있다. 10년 이상 수집된 진단데이터를 사용하여 와이블 함수를 이용한 누적확률을 구하였으며, 그 결과로부터 각 진단항목에 대하여 형상모수와 절연상태를 판정하는 진단기준치를 제시하였다. 그 결과로 수력발전기의 대지간 전압에 대한 부분방전량의 기준값으로 10,000pC이하를 제시하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.411-419
• /
• 1994

The containment failure probability due to hydrogen burning during severe accidents proceeding in a low pressure sequence is calculated using Monte Carlo method. The probability distribution functions for this Monte Carlo calculation is obtained from the statistical method. The calculations are performed for Kori unit 2, and the sensitivity studies on the input variables-the amount of hydrogen generated at SFD, cerium diameter, cerium length, oxidation rate at FCI, and the amount of hydrogen generated during MCCI-are also performed. It is revealed that SFD is the main factor in hydrogen generation, but the other sources also cannot be neglected. The containment failure probability due to the hydrogen burning lies within 6% in case of Kori unit 2.

• Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.295-323
• /
• 2011

This study is based on the recognition that teacher educators have to focus their attention on developing pre-service teachers' statistical reasoning for statistics education of school mathematics. This paper investigated knowledge on pre-service teachers' statistical reasoning. Statistical Reasoning Assessment (SRA) is performed to find out pre-service teachers' statistical reasoning ability. The research findings are as follows. There was meaningful difference in the statistical area of statistical reasoning ability with significant level of 0.05. This proved that 4 grades pre-service teachers were more improve on statistical reasoning than 2 grades pre-service teachers. Even though most of the pre-service teachers ratiocinated properly on SRA, half of pre-service teachers appreciated that small size of sample is more likely to deviate from the population than the large size of sample. A few pre-service teachers have difficulties in understanding "Correctly interprets probabilities(be able to explain probability by using ratio" and "Understands the importance of large samples(A small sample is more likely to deviate from the population)".

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2011.02a
• /
• pp.205-205
• /
• 2011

본 연구에서는 한반도의 유역별 대표 기상관측 지점을 선정하여 기후변화로 인하여 미래에 나타날 수 있는 가뭄의 경향성을 분석하였다. 분석을 위한 자료는 실제 강수량 자료(1974~1999년)와 A2시나리오를 따르는 5개의 GCMs(General Circulation Model) 자료를 통계적 상세화한 강수량 자료(1974~2099년)를 이용하여 산정한 지속기간 6개월의 SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)를 사용하였다. 분석을 위한 대표 기상관측 지점으로는 춘천, 서울, 대전, 대구, 전주, 광주, 부산 지점을 선정하였으며 GCM으로는 호주(CSIRO : MK3), 미국(GFDL : CM2_1), 독일/한국(CONS : ECHO-G), 일본(MRI : CGCM2_3_2), 영국(UKMO : HADGEM1)의 GCM을 선정하였다. 가뭄의 통계적 특성을 분석하기 위하여 Mann-Kendall 검정을 통한 경향성 분석과 Wavelet Transform 분석을 통한 주기성 분석을 하였으며 Drought Spell을 이용하여 가뭄심도별 발생빈도를 보았다. 그 결과, 경향성 분석에서는 각 GCMs의 차이를 볼 수 있었으며 CSIRO : MK3.0, GFDL : CM2_1, MIUB : ECHO-G 모델에서는 전체적으로 가뭄이 완화되고 MRI : CGCM2_3_2, UKMO : HADGEM1 모델에서는 가뭄이 심화되는 것으로 나타났다. 주기성 분석에서는 춘천, 서울에서는 낮은 주기를 대전, 대구, 전주, 광주, 부산지점에서는 다소 긴 주기를 보여주었다. Drought-spell에 의한 분석에서는 전 관측지점에서 SPI의 이론적인 확률밀도 함수값과 유사하게 나타나고 있었으며 이를 통해, 미래에는 극심한 가뭄의 빈도가 증가하고 있는 것을 예측할 수 있었다.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.25 no.6
• /
• pp.592-599
• /
• 2015

In big data environment, we need new approach for big data analysis, because the characteristics of big data, such as volume, variety, and velocity, can analyze entire data for inferring population. But traditional methods of statistics were focused on small data called random sample extracted from population. So, the classical analyses based on statistics are not suitable to big data analysis. To solve this problem, we propose an approach to efficient big data analysis. In this paper, we consider a big data analysis using principal component analysis, which is popular method in multivariate statistics. To verify the performance of our research, we carry out diverse simulation studies.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.29 no.3A
• /
• pp.199-207
• /
• 2009

In this paper, new vehicular load model is developed for reliability-based bridge design code. Rational load model and statistical properties of loads are important for developing reliability-based design code. In the previous paper, truck weight data collected at eight locations using WIM or BWIM system are analyzed to calculate the maximum truck weights for specified bridge lifetime. Probability distributions of upper 20% total truck weight are assumed as Extreme Type I (Gumbel Distribution) and 100 years maximum weights are estimated by linear regression. In this study, effects of multiple presence of trucks are analyzed. Probability of multiple presence of trucks are estimated and corresponding multiple truck weights are calculated using the same probability distribution function as in the previous paper. New vehicular live load model are proposed for span length from 10 m to 200 m. New model is compared with current Korean model and various load models of other countries.

• School Mathematics
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.241-255
• /
• 2015

The purpose of this study is to analyze teachers' understanding on generating random number in Monte Carlo simulation and to provide educational implications in school practice. The results showed that the 70% of the teachers selected wrong ideas from three types for random-number as strategies for problem solving a probability problem and also they make some errors to justify their opinion. The first kind of the errors was that the probability of a point or boundary was equal to the value of the probability density function in the continuous probability distribution. The second kind of the errors was that the teachers failed to recognize that the sample space has been changed by conditional probability. The third kind of the errors was that when two random variables X, Y are independence of each other, then only, joint probability distribution is satisfied $P(X=x,\;Y=y)=p(X=x){\times}P(Y=y{\mid}X=x)$.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.214-223
• /
• 2003

A reliability analysis is straightforwardly applied to the sloped coastal structures against the random wave overtopping. A reliability function can be directly derived from a empirical formula in which may take into account many variables associated with the random wave overtopping. The probability of failure exceeded the allowable overtopping discharge can be evaluated as a function of dimensionless crest height with some reasonable statistical properties and distribution functions of each random variable. Some differences of probabilities of failure occurred from variations of the slopes of structures as well as types of armour are investigated into quantitatively. Additionally, the effects of the crest width of units placed in front of the concrete cap on the probability of failure may be analyzed. Finally, the sensitivity analyses are carried out with respect to the uncertainties of random variables. It is found that the overall characteristics similar to the known experimental results are correctly represented in this reliability analyses. Also, it should be noted that the probabilities of failure may be quantitatively obtained for several structural and hydraulic conditions, which never assess in the deterministic design method. Thus, it may be possible for determination on the crest height of sloped coastal structures to consider the probability of failure of wave overtopping, by which may be increased the efficiency of practical design.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2017.05a
• /
• pp.79-79
• /
• 2017

강우 자료는 수공구조물 설계목적에 따라 다양한 시공간적 범주가 필요하다. 그러나 시간단위 이하 시계열 강우자료는 미계측 유역 및 관측연한 등의 제약으로 연속적인 시계열을 확보하는데 어려움이 있다. 이러한 점에서 포아송분포 기반 강우발생모형은 강우시계열의 통계적 특성을 나타내는 5개 매개변수로 다양한 시간 범주의 연속강우시계열을 생성할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 강우발생모의 핵심은 과거자료의 통계특성을 효과적으로 복원할 수 있어야 하며, 다양한 기상학적 특성들 또한 적절하게 모의될 수 있어야 한다는 점이다. 즉, 다음과 같은 기준으로 모의적합성을 평가할 수 있다. 첫째, 지속기간별 관측시계열과 모의시계열의 통계적 유사성을 평가하고, 둘째, 확률분포를 따르는 각 매개변수의 사후분포를 제시하여 불확실성을 정량화하고, 셋째, 추정된 매개변수의 물리적 범위의 적정성 검토가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 강우발생모형으로 널리 알려진 Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse(NSRP) 모형과 Bayesian 모형을 연계한 Bayesian NSRP 모형 개발을 통해 강우관측소 전지점에 대한 매개변수 지도를 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구결과는 임의 유역에 대한 강우발생 시나리오를 제공하여, 다양한 형태의 유출결과를 도출할 수 있으며, 무엇보다 유출결과를 확률적으로 평가할 수 있다는 장점이 있다.