• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 해석

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Fatigue Life Evaluation for Used Rail on Track Types (궤도형식별 사용레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kang, Sung Won;Lim, Hyung-Jun;Park, Yong-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.649-657
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    • 2017
  • In this study, fatigue testing was carried out for long-term use of rail according to track type. From S-N curves for 50%~0.01% failure probability, the fatigue life of the long-term use rail for each track type was derived using the weight probability analysis technique on the experimental data. Because the rails used in the fatigue test have different cumulative tonnages, the number of repetitions was modified by averaging the cumulative tonnage. In addition, the bending stresses of rail bottoms, considering rail surface irregularities, track support stiffnesses and train speeds, were evaluated using the predicted rail bending stresses derived from existing studies. As a result, for rail fatigue life evaluation, the fatigue life of rail on the ballast track was found to be more than 200 million tons higher than the standard value for rail replacement. Also, the fatigue life of rail on concrete track is more than 300 million tons higher than that on ballast track. The Haibach rule is adaptable for the fatigue life evaluation of rail for stress range under fatigue limit.

Enhancement of the Detection Probability for Distributed Cooperative Spectrum Sensing using UWB as a Common Channel (UWB 신호채널을 사용한 분산협력 스펙트럼 센싱의 검출확률 향상)

  • Islam, A.B.M.Tariqul;Song, Ju-Bin
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.45 no.7
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 2008
  • Cognitive radio should imply a proper sensing technique for detecting the presence of licensed users to identify the unused spectrum holes. Besides this, this information should also be used to opportunistically provide communication among secondary users. At the same time the performance of the primary user should not be declined by the secondary users. The detection of licensed users may be significantly difficult for shadowing effect. To prevail over this problem cooperative spectrum sensing, In which the combined observation information gained by multiple secondary users is employed to achieve higher performance of detection, has been inspected. However, the primary challenge of cooperative sensing lays in its ability to detect the presence of licensed user quickly and accurately. In this paper, we have used UltraWideBand (UWB) to detect the presence of licensed users and transmit the sensing information among the nodes of the network. UWB has the capability of transmitting data at a very high rate. It is unique in co-existence capability with narrow band systems. Here, we have shown that the detection probability of licensed user is improved by means of transmitting the spectrum sensing information via UWB. We also have analyzed the throughput of the proposed technique and compared the result with existing sensing method.

Statistical Approach for Determination of Compliance with Clearance Criteria Based upon Types of Radionuclide Distributions in a Very Low-Level Radioactive Waste (극저준위 방사성폐기물의 방사성핵종 분포유형에 기초하여 자체처분기준 만족여부를 판단하기 위한 통계학적 접근방법)

  • Cheong, Jae-Hak
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.123-133
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    • 2010
  • A statistical evaluation methodology was developed to determine the compliance of candidate waste stream with clearance criteria based upon distribution of radionuclide in a waste stream at a certain confidence level. For the cases where any information on the radionuclide distribution is not available, the relation between arithmetic mean of radioactivity concentration and its acceptable maximum standard deviation was demonstrated by applying widely-known Markov Inequality and One-side Chebyshev Inequality. The relations between arithmetic mean and its acceptable maximum standard deviation were newly derived for normally or lognormally distributed radionuclide in a waste stream, using probability density function, cumulative density function, and other statistical relations. The evaluation methodology was tested for a representative case at 95% of confidence level and 100 Bq/g of clearance level of radioactivity concentration, and then the acceptable range of standard deviation at a given arithmetic mean was quantitatively shown and compared, by varying the type of radionuclide distribution. Furthermore, it was statistically demonstrated that the allowable range of clearance can be expanded, even at the same confidence level, if information on the radionuclide distribution is available.

Model Development Determining Probabilistic Ramp Merge Capacity Including Forced Merge Type (강제합류 형태를 포함한 확률적 연결로 합류용량 산정 모형 개발)

  • KIM, Sang Gu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2003
  • Over the decades, a lot of studies have dealt with the traffic characteristics and phenomena at a merging area. However, relatively few analytical techniques have been developed to evaluate the traffic flow at the area and, especially, the ramp merging capacity has rarely been. This study focused on the merging behaviors that were characterized by the relationship between the shoulder lane flow and the on-ramp flow, and modeled these behaviors to determine ramp merge capacity by using gap acceptance theory. In the process of building the model, both an ideal mergence and a forced mergence were considered when ramp-merging vehicles entered the gap provided by the flow of the shoulder lane. In addition, the model for the critical gap was proposed because the critical gap was the most influential factor to determine merging capacity in the developed models. The developed models showed that the merging capacity value was on the increase as the critical gap decreased and the shoulder lane volume increased. This study has a meaning of modeling the merging behaviors including the forced merging type to determine ramp merging capacity more precisely. The findings of this study would help analyze traffic phenomena and understand traffic behaviors at a merging area, and might be applicable to decide the primary parameters of on-ramp control by considering the effects of ramp merging flow.

Investigation on the Electrical Characteristics of mc-Si Wafer and Solar Cell with a Textured Surface by RIE (플라즈마기반 표면 Texturing 공정에 따른 다결정 실리콘 웨이퍼 표면물성과 태양전지 동작특성 연구)

  • Park, Kwang-Mook;Jung, Jee-Hee;Bae, So-Ik;Choi, Si-Young;Lee, Myoung-Bok
    • Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.225-232
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    • 2011
  • Reactive ion etching (RIE) technique for maskless surface texturing of mc-silicon solar wafers has been applied and succeed in fabricating a grass-like black-silicon with an average reflectance of $4{\pm}1%$ in a wavelength range of 300~1,200 nm. In order to investigate the optimized texturing conditions for mass production of high quantum efficiency solar cell Surface characteristics such as the spatial distribution of average reflectance, micrscopic surface morphology and minority carrier lifetime were monitored for samples from saw-damaged $15.6{\times}15.6\;cm^2$ bare wafer to key-processed wafers as well as the mc-Si solar cells. We observed that RIE textured wafers reveal lower average reflectance along from center to edges by 1% and referred the origin to the non-uniform surface structures with a depth of 2 times deeper and half-maximum width of 3 times. Samples with anti-reflection coating after forming emitter layer also revealed longer minority carrier lifetime by 40% for the edge compared to wafer center due to size effects. As results, mc-Si solar cells with RIE-textured surface also revealed higher efficiency by 2% and better external quantum efficiency by 15% for edge positions with higher height.

Probabilistic assessment of causal relationship between drought and water quality management in the Nakdong River basin using the Bayesian network model (베이지안 네트워크 모형을 이용한 낙동강 유역의 가뭄과 수질관리의 인과관계에 대한 확률론적 평가)

  • Yoo, Jiyoung;Ryu, Jae-Hee;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.769-777
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    • 2021
  • This study investigated the change of the achievement rate of the target water quality conditioned on the occurrence of severe drought, to assess the effects of meteorological drought on the water quality management in the Nakdong River basin. Using three drought indices with difference time scales such as 30-, 60-, 90-day, i.e., SPI30, SPI60, SPI90, and three water quality indicators such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), total organic carbon (TOC), and total phosphorus (T-P), we first analyzed the relationship between severe drought occurrence water quality change in mid-sized watersheds, and identified the watersheds in which water quality was highly affected by severe drought. The Bayesian network models were constructed for the watersheds to probabilistically assess the relationship between severe drought and water quality management. Among 22 mid-sized watersheds in the Nakdong River basin, four watersheds, such as #2005, #2018, #2021, and #2022, had high environmental vulnerability to severe drought. In addition, severe drought affected spring and fall water quality in the watershed #2021, summer water quality in the #2005, and winter water quality in the #2022. The causal relationship between drought and water quality management is usufaul in proactive drought management.

Probabilistic Braking Performance Analysis for Train Control System (열차제어시스템을 위한 확률적 제동성능분석)

  • Choi, Don Bum
    • Journal of The Korean Society For Urban Railway
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 2018
  • The safety interval to prevent collision between trains in a train control system is based on the braking distance according to the emergency braking of the train. The evaluation of the braking performance is based on the longitudinal train dynamics or the commissioning test in the test track, but since the conditions such as the weakening of the adhesion coefficient between the wheel and rail can not all be considered, these conventional methods are not sufficient to design of the train control systems. Therefore, in this study, the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) which can consider various environments is used to analyze braking performance and limitations. The braking model is based on the air braking used in the emergency braking and is modeled to take into account the braking pressure, efficiency, friction coefficient, adhesion condition, and vehicle mass distribution. It is confirmed that braking performance can be improved by controlling the quality of braking device. In addition, the change of the braking performance was confirmed according to the vehicle constituting the train. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic information for designing safety clearance for the train control systems and as a basis for improving the braking performance of railway vehicles.

TGC-based Fish Growth Estimation Model using Gaussian Process Regression Approach (가우시안 프로세스 회귀를 통한 열 성장 계수 기반의 어류 성장 예측 모델)

  • Juhyoung Sung;Sungyoon Cho;Da-Eun Jung;Jongwon Kim;Jeonghwan Park;Kiwon Kwon;Young Myoung Ko
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2023
  • Recently, as the fishery resources are depleted, expectations for productivity improvement by 'rearing fishery' in land farms are greatly rising. In the case of land farms, unlike ocean environments, it is easy to control and manage environmental and breeding factors, and has the advantage of being able to adjust production according to the production plan. On the other hand, unlike in the natural environment, there is a disadvantage in that operation costs may significantly increase due to the artificial management for fish growth. Therefore, profit maximization can be pursued by efficiently operating the farm in accordance with the planned target shipment. In order to operate such an efficient farm and nurture fish, an accurate growth prediction model according to the target fish species is absolutely required. Most of the growth prediction models are mainly numerical results based on statistical analysis using farm data. In this paper, we present a growth prediction model from a stochastic point of view to overcome the difficulties in securing data and the difficulty in providing quantitative expected values for inaccuracies that existing growth prediction models from a statistical point of view may have. For a stochastic approach, modeling is performed by introducing a Gaussian process regression method based on water temperature, which is the most important factor in positive growth. From the corresponding results, it is expected that it will be able to provide reference values for more efficient farm operation by simultaneously providing the average value of the predicted growth value at a specific point in time and the confidence interval for that value.

Reliability Based Stability Analysis and Design Criteria for Reinforced Concrete Retaining Wall (신뢰성(信賴性) 이론(理論)에 의한 R.C.옹벽(擁壁)의 안정해석(安定解析) 및 설계규준(設計規準))

  • Cho, Tae Song;Cho, Hyo Nam;Chun, Chai Myung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 1983
  • Current R.C. retaining wall design is bared on WSD, but the reliability based design method is more rational than the WSD. For this reason, this study proposes a reliability based design criteria for the cantilever retaining wall, which is most common type of retaining wall, and also proposes the theoretical bases of nominal safety factors of stability analysis by introducing the reliability theory. The limit state equations of stability analysis and design of each part of cantilever retaining wall are derived and the uncertainty measuring algorithms of each equation are also derived by MFOSM using Coulomb's coefficient of the active earth pressure and Hansen's bearing capacity formula. The levels of uncertainties corresponding to these algorithms are proposed appropriate values considering our actuality. The target reliability indices (overturning: ${\beta}_0$=4.0, sliding: ${\beta}_0$=3.5, bearing capacity: [${\beta}_0$=3.0, design for flexure: [${\beta}_0$=3.0, design for shear: ${\beta}_0$=3.2) are selected as optimal values considering our practice based on the calibration with the current R.C. retaining wall design safety provisions. Load and resistance factors are measured by using the proposed uncertainties and the selected target reliability indices. Furthermore, a set of nominal safety factors, allowable stresses, and allowable shear stresses are proposed for the current WSD design provisions. It may be asserted that the proposed LRFD reliability based design criteria for the R.C. retaining wall may have to be incorporated into the current R.C. design codes as a design provision corresponding to the USD provisions of the current R.C. design code.

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A Characterization of Oil Sand Reservoir and Selections of Optimal SAGD Locations Based on Stochastic Geostatistical Predictions (지구통계 기법을 이용한 오일샌드 저류층 해석 및 스팀주입중력법을 이용한 비투멘 회수 적지 선정 사전 연구)

  • Jeong, Jina;Park, Eungyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.313-327
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    • 2013
  • In the study, three-dimensional geostatistical simulations on McMurray Formation which is the largest oil sand reservoir in Athabasca area, Canada were performed, and the optimal site for steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) was selected based on the predictions. In the selection, the factors related to the vertical extendibility of steam chamber were considered as the criteria for an optimal site. For the predictions, 110 borehole data acquired from the study area were analyzed in the Markovian transition probability (TP) framework and three-dimensional distributions of the composing media were predicted stochastically through an existing TP based geostatistical model. The potential of a specific medium at a position within the prediction domain was estimated from the ensemble probability based on the multiple realizations. From the ensemble map, the cumulative thickness of the permeable media (i.e. Breccia and Sand) was analyzed and the locations with the highest potential for SAGD applications were delineated. As a supportive criterion for an optimal SAGD site, mean vertical extension of a unit permeable media was also delineated through transition rate based computations. The mean vertical extension of a permeable media show rough agreement with the cumulative thickness in their general distribution. However, the distributions show distinctive disagreement at a few locations where the cumulative thickness was higher due to highly alternating juxtaposition of the permeable and the less permeable media. This observation implies that the cumulative thickness alone may not be a sufficient criterion for an optimal SAGD site and the mean vertical extension of the permeable media needs to be jointly considered for the sound selections.