• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.12
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• pp.13-25
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• 2009

In this paper, a numerical procedure of probabilistic slope stability analysis that considers the spatial variability of soil properties is presented. The procedure extends the deterministic analysis based on the limit equilibrium method of slices to a probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties and spatial variation of the soil parameters. Making no a priori assumptions about the critical failure surface like the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM), the approach saves the amount of solution time required to perform the analysis. Two-dimensional random fields are generated based on a Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve expansion in a fashion consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method and to study the effects of uncertainty caused by the spatial heterogeneity on the stability of slope. The results show that the proposed method can efficiently consider the various failure mechanisms caused by the spatial variability of soil property in the probabilistic slope stability assessment.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.125-133
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• 1991

For the purpose of efficiently calculating the design sensitivity and the reliability for the complicated structures in which the structural responses or limit state functions are given by implicit form, the probabilistic finite element method is introduced to formulate the deterministic design sensitivity analysis method and incorporated with the second moment reliability methods such as MVFOSM, AFOSM and SORM. Also, the probabilistic design sensitivity analysis method needed in the reliability-based design is proposed. As numerical examples, two thin plates are analyzed for the cases of plane stress and plate bending. The initial yielding is defined as failure criterion, and applied loads, yield stress, plate thickness, Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio are treated as random variables. It is found that the response variances and the failure probabilities calculated by the proposed PFEM-based reliability method show good agreement with those by Monte Carlo simulation. The probabilistic design sensitivity evaluates explicitly the contribution of each random variable to probability of failure. Further, the design change can be evaluated without any difficulty, and their effect on reliability can be estimated quickly with high accuracy.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.789-799
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• 2007

In this paper, we propose a stochastic finite element formulation which takes into account the randonmess in the material and geometrical parameters. The formulation is proposed for plate structures, and is based on the weighted integral approach. Contrary to the case of elastic modulus, plate thickness contributes to the stiffness as a third-order function. Furthermore, Poisson's ratio is even more complex since this parameter appears in the constitutive relations in the fraction form. Accordingly, we employ Taylor's expansion to derive decomposed stochastic field functions in ascending order. In order to verify the proposed formulation, the results obtained using the proposed scheme are compared with those in the literature and those of Monte Carlo analysis as well.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.125-131
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• 1997

Most dynamic systems have are known to various random properties in excitation and system parameters. In this paper, a procedure for response analysis is proposed for the linear dynamic system with random properties in both excitation and system parameters. The system parameters and responses with random properties are modeled by perturbation technique, and then response analysis is formulated by probabilistic and vibration theories. And probabilistic FEM is also used for the calculation of mean response which is difficult by the proposed response model. As an applicative example, the transient response is considered for systems of single degree of freedom with random mass and spring constant subjected to stationary white-noise excitation and the results are compared to those of numerical simulation.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.7
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• pp.4398-4404
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• 2015

Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structural material for dynamic machine structures, These kinds structures used stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by using the gas welding, For fatigue design of gas welded joints such as various type joint. It is necessary to obtain design information on stress distribution at the weldment as well as fatigue strength of gas welded joints. Thus in this paper, ${\Delta}P-N_f$ curves were obtained by fatigue tests. and, ${\Delta}P-N_f$ curves were rearranged in the ${\Delta}{\sigma}-N_f$ relation with the hot spot stresses at the gas welded joints. Using these results, the accelerated life test(ALT) is conducted. From the experiment results, an life prediction model is derived and factors are estimated. So it is intended to obtain the useful information for the fatigue lifetime of welded joints and data analysis by statistic reliability method, to save time and cost, and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.

• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2002.06a
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• pp.199-204
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• 2002

본 연구에서는 저압 증기 터빈블레이드의 안전성 확보를 위하여 작용응력 및 강도의 변동성을 고려한 확률론적 해석을 수행하였다. 정상상태에서 작용응력은 이론 및 유한요소해석에 의해서 얻을 수 있으며, 최대 von-Mises 응력은 215.4MPa이다. 회전굽힘 하중하에서의 피로한도는 응력비 R= -1에서 계단식 시험법을 이용하여 구하였으며, 이의 확률론적 특성에 가장 적합한 분포는 3 모수 와이블 분포이다. 그리고 신뢰성에 미치는 다양한 인자들의 영향은 영향계수(sensitivity factor)를 이용하여 정량적으로 평가하였다.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.635-642
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• 2014

In this paper, an efficient technique is developed to predict failure probability of three failure modes(case rupture, fracture and bolt breakage) related to solid rocket motor case due to the inner pressure during the mission flight. The overall procedure consists of the steps: 1) design parameters affecting the case failure are identified and their uncertainties are modelled by probability distribution, 2) combustion analysis in the interior of the case is carried out to obtain maximum expected operating pressure(MEOP), 3) stress and other structural performances are evaluated by finite element analysis(FEA), and 4) failure probabilities are calculated for the above mentioned failure modes. Axi-symmetric assumption for FEA is employed for simplification while contact between bolted joint is accounted for. Efficient procedure is developed to evaluate failure probability which consists of finding first an Most Probable Failure Point(MPP) using First-Order Reliability Method(FORM), next making a response surface model around the MPP using Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS), and finally calculating failure probability by employing Importance Sampling.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.33-44
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• 1989

In this paper, uncertainties in dynamic soil structure interaction (SSI) of nuclear poi.or plants subjected to seismic loading are studied considering the random characteristics of soils surround- ing the structure. Firstly sensitivity analysis is performed to study the effect of uncertain dynamic soil properties on the response of the structure. Secondly, to take into account the non-neterministic characteristics in analysis caused by random characteristics of the soil properties, Perturbation method and Rosenblueth's Two point estimates were used for this studu. The procedure is based on the comptex response method which is constituted by a combined usage of conventional finite elements for the near field and infinite elements for the far field. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that dynamic soil properties greatly affect the response of the sol.uc- lure. Results of the probabilistic analysis show that the Two-point estimate method produces good agreements with the Perturbation method.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.59-72
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• 1990

본 논문은 해양 구조물에 대한 확률적 기법을 이용한 스펙트럴 피로해석 방법에 대하여 기술하고 있다. 환경조건 특히 파도 및 관련된 해상상태, 파도 스펙트럼에 대하여 조사하였다. 각종 공식을 이용한 응력 집중계수와 유한요소법을 이용한 응력 집중계수 산출 방법 및 피로수명에 대한 그 영향에 대하여 연구하고, S-N선도의 선택과 해상상태의 간략화 문제등에 관해서도 다루었다. 마지막으로 스펙트럴 피로해석 기법을 응용한 실제 피로해석 사례 연구를 통하여 본 방법의 유용성을 입증하였다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.6A
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• pp.1001-1011
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• 2006

It is a general agreement that exact statistical solutions can be found by a Monte Carlo technique. Due to difficulties, however, in the numerical generation of random fields, which satisfy not only the probabilistic distribution but the spectral characteristics as well, it is recognized as relatively difficult to find an exact response variability of a structural response. In this study, recognizing that the random field assumes a constant over the domain under consideration when the correlation distance tends to infinity, a semi-theoretical solution of response variability is proposed for general structures. In this procedure, the probability density function is directly used. It is particularly noteworthy that the proposed methodology provides response variability for virtually any type of probability density function, and has capability of considering correlations between multiple random variables.