• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 시험

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문항반응이론에서의 추정방법과 대입학력고사의 문항분석

  • 박정수;조완현
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.192-205
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    • 1994
  • 본 논문에서는 피험자의 능력과 검사문항에 정답할 확률과의 관계에 기초한 문항반응 이론의 기본 가정과 통계적 모형을 소개하였다. 또한 검사의 목적상 필요한 피험자의 능력을 정확히 추정하는 방법과, 검사에 사용되는 각 문항을 특성지우는 문항모수의 여러가지 통계적 추정 방법에 대하여 정리하였다. 그 방법들은 결합 최우추정법, 조건부 최우추정법, 주변 최우추정법, 베이지안 추정법 및 이들의 혼합에 의한 방법이다. 문항반응이론의 적용의 한 예로서 93년도 대입학력고사의 수학 시험문항을 BILOG 라는 컴퓨터 프로그램을 이용하여 분석하였다.

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A Study on Characteristics of the Desiccation Shrinkage in Reclaimed Hydraulic Fills (준설매립지반의 건조수축특성에 관한 연구)

  • 홍병만;김상규;김석열;김승욱;김홍택;강인규
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.219-238
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    • 1999
  • In the present study, laboratory tests including the seepage-induced consolidation test, suction test, and desiccation shrinkage test are performed to investigate characteristics of the desiccation shrinkage in reclaimed hydraulic fills. Soil samples for laboratory tests are obtained from three sites (districts of Haenam, Kogeum and Koheung in Chunnam area). Desiccation shrinkage settlement caused by three dimensional volume change is numerically evaluated using finite difference technique based on the governing equation proposed by Abu-Hejleh & Znidarcic. Also characteristics of the desiccation shrinkage analyzed from the test results are used as input data for numerical evaluations. Further predicted total settlements including the self-weight consolidation settlement are compared with values measured at the site of Haenam district. Finally, effects of parameters related to the desiccation shrinkage on settlements are examined.

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A Study on Runoff Coefficient Estimation of Rational Method in Natural Basin (산지유역의 합리식 유출계수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ji Ho;Park, Young Jin;Choi, In Ho;Song, Jai Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.173-177
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    • 2004
  • 수리${\cdot}$수문 분석시 비교내상으로 사용되고 있는 기존 합리식을 국내외 자료를 통해 고찰하여 적합한 확률론적 합리식을 나타내고, 선행강우조건, 토지 이용도, 경사도, 그리고 재현기간이 고려된 수정 유출계수를 제시한 후, 유출계수의 객관적인 산출이 가능한 GIS기법을 도입하여 설계자의 주관을 배제할 수 있도록 하며, 국내 시험유험에 적용하여 유역 특성이 고려된 유출량을 산정할 수 있도록 하는 것이다. 제안된 수정유출계수는 국내 시험유역의 하나인 설마천 자연하천유역에 도입하여 적합성 여부를 검토하였으려, 자연하천유역에서 사용가능한 수정유출계수를 제안하였다.

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A Study on the Evaluation and Prediction for the Fatigue Crack Initiation and Growth Life by Reliability Approach ( II ) (신뢰성 공학적 피로 균열의 발생, 진전 수명 평가 및 예측에 관한 연구 (II))

  • 권재도;곽상국;최선호;황재석;진영준
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.907-915
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    • 1991
  • 본 연구에서는 피로 크랙 발생 및 파단수명의 통계학적 분포특성을 명확히 하 기 위해서 단축인장을 받고, 크랙 선단 곡율반경이 일정한 중앙 크랙을 가진 81개의 시험편을 사용하여 4개의 응력 레벨하에서 피로 시험을 행한후 많은 데이터들로 부터 피로크랙의 발생, 파단특성에 대한 신뢰성 있는 통계학적 확률특성을 제시하고, 이들 데이터를 활용하여 수명예측을 행해보고저 한다.

A Study on the Safe Altitude of Aircraft turning back to the Runway with Power Failure just after Take Off (이륙 직후 동력 상실시 활주로로 선회 착륙을 위한 안전 고도에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Byung-Heum;Kim, Kap-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 1996
  • 본 연구에서는 항공기 사고의 70%이상을 차지하는 이 ${\cdot}$ 착륙단계 중에서, 이륙 직후 저고도에서 동력이 상실되었을 경우에 이륙활주로 방향으로 Turning Back하는 것은 어떠한 안전 한계를 지니고 있는지를 알아보기 위하여, 우선 조종사에 대한 설문 조사를 실시하여 비행 경력별로 이륙 직후 동력 상실시의 비상 처치 경향과 위험에 처할 확률을 조사하였다. 그리고 실제 활공 성능이 우수한 M20J 항공기와 기동 성능이 우수한 FH20 항공기를 이용한 비행 시험을 통하여 이륙 직후 Turning Back to Runway조작 시의 고도 손실과 선회시 하강율을 실험 자료로 구하였다. 비행 시험 자료를 비교 적용함은 물론 선회 소요 시간과 고도 손실, 선회율과 활공 속도와의 관계 등의 항공 역학적 이론을 적용한 분석 근거에 기초하여 안전하게 Turning Back to Runway 조작을 시작할 수 있는 안전 고도 한계 및 선회율을 제시하였다.

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Effects of Calibration Rounds on the Statistical Distribution of Muzzle Velocity in Acceptance Test of Propelling Charge (추진장약 수락시험시 포구속도 확률분포에 기준탄이 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Sung-Ho;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.204-212
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of calibration rounds on the statistical distribution of the muzzle velocity in acceptance test of propelling charge. It is shown that the normal distribution fits best among statistical distributions from goodness-of fit test. The 3p-Weibull distribution is also acceptable because the shape of the probability density function curve is similar to that of normal distribution and it also has near zero skewness value. Muzzle velocities of test rounds uncompensated by calibration rounds showed high variation and had comparatively higher skewness. Because the skewness of normal distribution is defined to be zero, calibration rounds make the normality of data higher.

Comparison Analysis between PWL and Probability Theory for Quality Measurement of Asphalt Pavement (아스팔트 포장의 품질측정을 위한 확률이론과 PWL방법의 비교 분석)

  • Choi, Jang-Kyu;Rhee, Suk-Keun;Kim, Seong-Min;Hwang, Sang-Min
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to suggest resonable quality measurement methods of asphalt pavements to be used in the Pay adjustment. The Pay adjustment is a method to adjust the construction cost according to the pavement quality based on the statistic theories. Many U.S states use Pay adjustment and the PWL(Percent with in Limit) is calculated using their quality index tables. In this study, the application of PWL in Korea was evaluated by comparing the PWL South Carolina with the probability theories. The probability values and the PWL obtained using the data collected from the test roads were used to determine the pay factors suggested by AASHTO and the pay factors between them were closed to each other. In addition, the PWL was very similar to the probability obtained using the predicted average of the population when calculating the Z-values. The pay factors were obtained using artificial data whose average satisfied the codes and whose standard deviation was large. The pay factors were less than 100% in the quality measurements can be performed using the PWL methods, and with the development of the korea quality index table, the PWL methods can be applied in korea.

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A Method of Selecting Test Metrics for Certifying Package Software using Bayesian Belief Network (베이지언 사용한 패키지 소프트웨어 인증을 위한 시험 메트릭 선택 기법)

  • Lee, Chong-Won;Lee, Byung-Jeong;Oh, Jae-Won;Wu, Chi-Su
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.33 no.10
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    • pp.836-850
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    • 2006
  • Nowadays, due to the rapidly increasing number of package software products, quality test has been emphasized for package software products. When testing software products, one of the most important factors is to select metrics which form the bases for tests. In this paper, the types of package software are represented as characteristic vectors having probabilistic relationships with metrics. The characteristic vectors could be regarded as indicators of software type. To assign the metrics for each software type, the past test metrics are collected and analyzed. Using Bayesian belief network, the dependency relationship network of the characteristic vectors and metrics is constructed. The dependency relationship network is then used to find the proper metrics for the test of new package software products.

High Cyclic Fatigue Life and Fracture Behaviors of Shot-Peened Bearing Steel (쇼트피닝 처리를 한 베어링강의 고사이클 피로수명 및 파괴거동)

  • Yoon, Sang-Jae;Choi, Nak-Sam
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.9
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    • pp.1119-1129
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    • 2011
  • Shot-peening effects on the fatigue behavior of bearing steel were investigated under the high cyclic loading. Hourglass shape specimens were made of bearing steel(JIS-SUJ2) for rotary bending fatigue tests. Two kinds of treatments were performed : a heat treatment and a shot-peened surface treatment after the heat treatment. The fracture surfaces of specimens were classified into two types of fracture mode : the surface fracture mode induced by a surface defect and the internal fracture mode induced by a nonmetallic inclusion. Inclusion depth and shape affected considerably the fatigue life. Shot-peening treatment improved much the fatigue life of the bearing steel under low and high levels of cyclic loads. Probabilistic-stress-life (P-S-N) curves were suggested for the reliable fatigue life estimation of the improved bearing steel.

A comparison of multiple hypothesis testing methods and combination methods in seamless Phase II/III clinical trials (심리스 제2상/제3상 임상시험에서 다중가설검정방법과 결합검정방법의 비교연구)

  • Han, Song;Yoo, Hanna;Lee, Jae Won
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2019
  • An adaptive seamless Phase II/III clinical trial design enables a reduction in the sample size (in comparison to a conventional design) that also shortens the clinical development time. It is also very effective in clinical trials since it can have higher statistical power than Phase III alone. In this study, we use extensive simulation studies to compare several multiple hypothesis testing methods that can help select the best doses in a Phase II study along with several methods to combine p-values of the Phase II and Phase III study.