• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 모델

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Reliability Analysis on Firewater Supply Facilities based on the Probability Theory with Considering Common Cause Failures (소방수 공급설비에 대한 공통원인고장을 고려한 확률론적 신뢰도 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2003
  • In this study, we write down the definitions, their causes and the techniques of analysis as a theoretical consideration of common cause failures, and investigate the limitation and the importance of the common cause failures by applying to the analysis on the fire protection as a representative safety facility. As you can know in the reliability analysis, most impressive cause is the malfunctions of pumping operations; especially the common cause failure of two pumps is dominant. In other words, it is possible to assess system-reliability as twice as actual without CCF From these, CCF is extraordinarily important and the results are highly dependent on the CCF factor. And although it would increase with multiple installations, the reliability are not defined as linear with those multiplications. In addition, the differences in results due to the models for analysis are not significant, whereas the various sources of data produce highly different results. Therefore, we conclude that the reliabilities are dependent on the quality of the usable data much better than the variety of models. As a result, the basic and engineering device for the preventions of CCF of the multiple facilities is to design it as reliably as to design the fire-water pump. That is to say, we must assess those reliabilities using PFD whether they are appropriate to SIL (Safety Integrity Level) which is required for the reliability in SIS (Safety Instrumented System). The result of the analysis on the reliability of the fire-water supply with CCF shows that PFD is 3.80E-3, so that it cannot be said to be designed as safely as in the level of SIL5. However, without CCF, PFD is 1.82E-3 which means that they are designed as unsafely as before.

Evaluation of Maritime Safety Technology for Official Development Assistance (ODA) (국제협력사업 추진을 위한 해사안전기술 평가 연구)

  • Oh, Se-Woong;Jeon, Tae-Byung;Lee, Moon-Jin;Suh, Sang-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2010
  • IMO(International Maritime Organization) and the Shipping World rave complied with various kinds of international regulations for maritime safety and marine environmental protection, but the main reason of maritime accidents is that developing countries cannot implement maritime safety related regulations. Although Korea has been a member of the "A group" council of IMO, maritime technology transfer records of Korea are not good. To promote the project of official development assistance in Korea, it is required to select the technology which has a high degree of importance in the fields of maritime safety and has a high degree of demand on the transfer to developing countries, and to concentrate on the selected technology. So, it is necessary to draw valuation factors for maritime safety technology and to decide the priority in order among maritime safety technologies on the basis of valuation factors. Because the weights which show the degree of importance among valuation factors are different from factor to factor, interdependent relationship between factors should be considered on evaluation. In this study, the valuation factors were divided into three groups as the maturity of maritime safety technology, the promotion probability of projects and the degree of importance of technology, and the detailed factors of each group were drawn. A model which used Fuzzy AHP and limiting probability to consider the weights of importance and correlation among valuation factors was developed. To adopt this model, nine types of maritime safety technology in the field of maritime safety information were selected and points were scored for each technology through evaluation. In conclusion, first, ENC related technology was scored to be the highest as 0.0139. Second, the point of ship monitoring technology was scored as 0.0133. Last, oil spill response technology was scored as 0.0132.

A Study on Kiosk Satisfaction Level Improvement: Focusing on Kano, Timko, and PCSI Methodology (키오스크 소비자의 만족수준 연구: Kano, Timko, PCSI 방법론을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jaehoon;Kim, Pansoo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.193-204
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the degree of influence of measurement and improvement of customer satisfaction level targeting kiosk users. In modern times, due to the development of technology and the improvement of the online environment, the probability that simple labor tasks will disappear after 10 years is close to 90%. Even in domestic research, it is predicted that 'simple labor jobs' will disappear due to the influence of advanced technology with a probability of about 36%. there is. In particular, as the demand for non-face-to-face services increases due to the Corona 19 virus, which is recently spreading globally, the trend of introducing kiosks has accelerated, and the global market will grow to 83.5 billion won in 2021, showing an average annual growth rate of 8.9%. there is. However, due to the unmanned nature of these kiosks, some consumers still have difficulties in using them, and consumers who are not familiar with the use of these technologies have a negative attitude towards service co-producers due to rejection of non-face-to-face services and anxiety about service errors. Lack of understanding leads to role conflicts between sales clerks and consumers, or inequality is being created in terms of service provision and generations accustomed to using technology. In addition, since kiosk is a representative technology-based self-service industry, if the user feels uncomfortable or requires additional labor, the overall service value decreases and the growth of the kiosk industry itself can be suppressed. It is important. Therefore, interviews were conducted on the main points of direct use with actual users centered on display color scheme, text size, device design, device size, internal UI (interface), amount of information, recognition sensor (barcode, NFC, etc.), Display brightness, self-event, and reaction speed items were extracted. Afterwards, using the questionnaire, the Kano model quality attribute classification of each expected evaluation item was carried out, and Timko's customer satisfaction coefficient, which can be calculated with accurate numerical values The PCSI Index analysis was additionally performed to determine the improvement priorities by finally classifying the improvement impact of the kiosk expected evaluation items through research. As a result, the impact of improvement appears in the order of internal UI (interface), text size, recognition sensor (barcode, NFC, etc.), reaction speed, self-event, display brightness, amount of information, device size, device design, and display color scheme. Through this, we intend to contribute to a comprehensive comparison of kiosk-based research in each field and to set the direction for improvement in the venture industry.

Exploring Branch Structure across Branch Orders and Species Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning and Quantitative Structure Model (지상형 라이다와 정량적 구조 모델을 이용한 분기별, 종별 나무의 가지 구조 탐구)

  • Seongwoo Jo;Tackang Yang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2024
  • Considering the significant relationship between a tree's branch structure and physiology, understanding the detailed branch structure is crucial for fields such as species classification, and 3D tree modelling. Recently, terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and quantitative structure model (QSM) have enhanced the understanding of branch structures by capturing the radius, length, and branching angle of branches. Previous studies examining branch structure with TL S and QSM often relied on mean or median of branch structure parameters, such as the radius ratio and length ratio in parent-child relationships, as representative values. Additionally, these studies have typically focused on the relationship between trunk and the first order branches. This study aims to explore the distribution of branch structure parameters up to the third order in Aesculus hippocastanum, Ginkgo biloba, and Prunus yedoensis. The gamma distribution best represented the distributions of branch structure parameters, as evidenced by the average of Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics (radius = 0.048; length = 0.061; angle = 0.050). Comparisons of the mode, mean, and median were conducted to determine the most representative measure indicating the central tendency of branch structure parameters. The estimated distributions showed differences between the mode and mean (average of normalized differences for radius ratio = 11.2%; length ratio = 17.0%; branching angle = 8.2%), and between the mode and median (radius ratio = 7.5%; length ratio = 11.5%; branching angle = 5.5%). Comparisons of the estimated distributions across branch orders and species were conducted, showing variations across branch orders and species. This study suggests that examining the estimated distribution of the branch structure parameter offers a more detailed description of branch structure, capturing the central tendencies of branch structure parameters. We also emphasize the importance of examining higher branch orders to gain a comprehensive understanding of branch structure, highlighting the differences across branch orders.

Balanced DQDB Applying the System with Cyclic Service for a Fair MAC Procotol (공정한 MAC 프로토콜을 위해 순환서비스시스템을 적용한 평형 DQDB)

  • 류희삼;강준길
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.1919-1927
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    • 1993
  • A new MAC protocol has been proposed and analysed to relieve the unfairness problems exhibited by the basic version of the DQDB standard. DQDB MAC protocol has the unfairness problems in throughputs. message delay and so or. And when the slots are reused or the file transmissions takes long, the unfairness problems in the system become worse. The new access protocol proposed here, which of called the Balanced DQDB, guarantees a fair bandwidth distribution by using one bit of the dual bus network protocol and keeps up all characteristics of DQDB. the DQDB analysis model introduced by Wen Jing, et al, was considered to analyse a sequential balance distribution of solts. And the probabilities of the empty in operation mode were represented to determine the probabilities for busy bits to generate on each node of the bus using the Markov chain. Through the simulations. the performances of the proposed Balanced DQDB and that of the standard DQDB of the BWB mechanism were compared at the state that the values of the RQ or CD counter on each node varied dynamically. As the results, it is shown that the Balanced DQDB has the decrement of throughputs in upstream, but the numbers of the used empty slots at each node of the Balanced DQDB had more than that of the others because the Balanced DQDB has over 0.9 throughputs in the 70~80% nodes of total node and it has constant throughputs at each node. And there results were analogous to that of the analytical model.

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Performance Improvement of Speaker Recognition by MCE-based Score Combination of Multiple Feature Parameters (MCE기반의 다중 특징 파라미터 스코어의 결합을 통한 화자인식 성능 향상)

  • Kang, Ji Hoon;Kim, Bo Ram;Kim, Kyu Young;Lee, Sang Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2020
  • In this thesis, an enhanced method for the feature extraction of vocal source signals and score combination using an MCE-Based weight estimation of the score of multiple feature vectors are proposed for the performance improvement of speaker recognition systems. The proposed feature vector is composed of perceptual linear predictive cepstral coefficients, skewness, and kurtosis extracted with lowpass filtered glottal flow signals to eliminate the flat spectrum region, which is a meaningless information section. The proposed feature was used to improve the conventional speaker recognition system utilizing the mel-frequency cepstral coefficients and the perceptual linear predictive cepstral coefficients extracted with the speech signals and Gaussian mixture models. In addition, to increase the reliability of the estimated scores, instead of estimating the weight using the probability distribution of the convectional score, the scores evaluated by the conventional vocal tract, and the proposed feature are fused by the MCE-Based score combination method to find the optimal speaker. The experimental results showed that the proposed feature vectors contained valid information to recognize the speaker. In addition, when speaker recognition is performed by combining the MCE-based multiple feature parameter scores, the recognition system outperformed the conventional one, particularly in low Gaussian mixture cases.

Classification of Transport Vehicle Noise Events in Magnetotelluric Time Series Data in an Urban area Using Random Forest Techniques (Random Forest 기법을 이용한 도심지 MT 시계열 자료의 차량 잡음 분류)

  • Kwon, Hyoung-Seok;Ryu, Kyeongho;Sim, Ickhyeon;Lee, Choon-Ki;Oh, Seokhoon
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.230-242
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    • 2020
  • We performed a magnetotelluric (MT) survey to delineate the geological structures below the depth of 20 km in the Gyeongju area where an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 occurred in September 2016. The measured MT data were severely distorted by electrical noise caused by subways, power lines, factories, houses, and farmlands, and by vehicle noise from passing trains and large trucks. Using machine-learning methods, we classified the MT time series data obtained near the railway and highway into two groups according to the inclusion of traffic noise. We applied three schemes, stochastic gradient descent, support vector machine, and random forest, to the time series data for the highspeed train noise. We formulated three datasets, Hx, Hy, and Hx & Hy, for the time series data of the large truck noise and applied the random forest method to each dataset. To evaluate the effect of removing the traffic noise, we compared the time series data, amplitude spectra, and apparent resistivity curves before and after removing the traffic noise from the time series data. We also examined the frequency range affected by traffic noise and whether artifact noise occurred during the traffic noise removal process as a result of the residual difference.

Uniform Hazard Spectrum for Seismic Design of Fire Protection Facilities (소방시설의 내진설계를 위한 등재해도 스펙트럼)

  • Kim, Jun-Kyoung;Jeong, Keesin
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.26-35
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    • 2017
  • Since the Northridge earthquake (1994) and Kobe earthquake (1995), the concept of performance-based design has been actively introduced to design major structures and buildings. Recently, the seismic design code was established for fire protection facilities. Therefore, the important fire protection facilities should be designed and constructed according to the seismic design code. Accordingly, uniform hazard spectra (UHS), with annual exceedance probabilities, corresponding to the performance level, such as operational, immediate occupancy, life safety, and collapse prevention, are required for performance-based design. Using the method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the uniform hazard spectra for 5 major cities in Korea with a recurrence period of 500, 1,000, and 2,500 years corresponding to frequencies of (0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0)Hz and PGA, were analyzed. The expert panel was comprised of 10 members in seismology and tectonics. The ground motion prediction equations and several seismo tectonic models suggested by 10 expert panel members in seismology and tectonics were used as the input data for uniform hazard spectrum analysis. According to sensitivity analysis, the parameter of spectral ground motion prediction equations has a greater impact on the seismic hazard than seismotectonic models. The resulting uniform hazard spectra showed maximum values of the seismic hazard at a frequency of 10Hz and also showed the shape characteristics, which are similar to previous studies and related technical guides for nuclear facilities.

Effective Harmony Search-Based Optimization of Cost-Sensitive Boosting for Improving the Performance of Cross-Project Defect Prediction (교차 프로젝트 결함 예측 성능 향상을 위한 효과적인 하모니 검색 기반 비용 민감 부스팅 최적화)

  • Ryu, Duksan;Baik, Jongmoon
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2018
  • Software Defect Prediction (SDP) is a field of study that identifies defective modules. With insufficient local data, a company can exploit Cross-Project Defect Prediction (CPDP), a way to build a classifier using dataset collected from other companies. Most machine learning algorithms for SDP have used more than one parameter that significantly affects prediction performance depending on different values. The objective of this study is to propose a parameter selection technique to enhance the performance of CPDP. Using a Harmony Search algorithm (HS), our approach tunes parameters of cost-sensitive boosting, a method to tackle class imbalance causing the difficulty of prediction. According to distributional characteristics, parameter ranges and constraint rules between parameters are defined and applied to HS. The proposed approach is compared with three CPDP methods and a Within-Project Defect Prediction (WPDP) method over fifteen target projects. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model outperforms the other CPDP methods in the context of class imbalance. Unlike the previous researches showing high probability of false alarm or low probability of detection, our approach provides acceptable high PD and low PF while providing high overall performance. It also provides similar performance compared with WPDP.

Numerical Analysis of Groundwater Flow through Fractured Rock Mass by Tunneling in a Mountainous Area (산악 지역 내 터널 굴착 시 단열 암반 내 지하수 유동 분석)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Soo;Lee, Ju-Hyun;Ahn, Ju-Hee;Ahn, Gyu-Cheon;Yoon, Woon-Sang
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.16 no.4 s.63
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 2006
  • Intake of groundwater by tunneling in a mountainous area mostly results from groundwater flow through fractured parts of total rock mass. For reasonable analysis of this phenomenon the representative joint groups 1, 2, and 3 have been selected by previous investigations, geological/geophysical field tests and boring works. Three dimensional fractures were generated by the FracMan and MAFIC which is a three dimensional finite element model has been used to analyse a groundwater flow through fractured media. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to reduce the uncertainty of this study. The numerical results showed that the average and deviation of amounts of groundwater intaked into tunnel per unit length were $5.40{\times}10^{-1}$ and $3.04{\times}10^{-1}m^3/min/km$. It is concluded that tunnel would be stable on impact of groundwater environment by tunneling because of the lower value than $2.00{\sim}3.00m^3/min/km$ as previous and present standard on the application of tunnel construction.