• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.15-21
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• 1998

In this research, we studied reach the conclusion with more probability for predicting the severity which based on fire cases in domestic department stores for last 30 years. Considering the number of yearly fire cases in department stores and the cost of damage, we set the risk level. Moreover, this research shows the severity of fire in department stores through its scenario applying to FPETOOL program which NIST in USA has developed. By the result of FPETOOL program operation, we could acquired information about the time reaching the point where people are in danger in temperature, smoke layer and gas concentration. When a fire breaks out in a department store, a great loss of property and life is significant, as well as the potential risk is awfully considerable. Therefore, we should prevent a five from occuring.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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• 2022.10a
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• pp.227-228
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• 2022

전통적인 HRA(Human Reliability Analysis)방법은 특정 애플리케이션 또는 산업을 염두에 두고 있으며. 또한 이러한 방법은 종종 복잡하며, 시간이 많이 걸리고 적용하는 데 비용이 많이 들며 직접 비교하기에는 적합하지 않다. 제안된 HFHM(Human Factors Hazard Model: 인적 요인 위험 모델)은 기검증되고 시간 테스트를 거친 FTA(Fault Tree Analysis:결함 트리 분석)및 ETA(Event Tree Analysis:이벤트 트리 분석)의 확률 분석 도구 및 새로 개발된 HEP(Human Error Probability:인적 오류 확률)예측 도구와 통합되고, 인간과 관련된 PSF(Performance Shaping Factors:성능 형성 요인)를 중심으로 새로운 접근 방식으로 개발되었다. 인간-시스템은 상호작용으로 인한 재난사고 가능성을 모델링하는 위험분석 접근법 HFHM은 다음과 같은 상용 소프트웨어 도구 내에서 예시되고 자동화된다. HFHM에서 생성된 데이터는 SE 분석가 및 설계에 대한 표준화된 가이드로 사용될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 인적 위험을 예측하는 이 새로운 접근 방식을 통해, 전체 시스템에 대한 포괄적인 재난안전 분석을 가능하게 한다.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.72-78
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• 2019

Inlet hammershock is the critical loads condition for designing the inlet duct structure of a fighter. The sudden flow reduction in engine compressor causes inlet hammershock with high pressure. The traditional method was used to combine extreme conditions (maximum speed, sea level altitude, and cold day) to analyze this compression wave inlet hammershock pressure. However, after the 90s there have been papers that presented the probabilistic approach for the inlet hammershock to achieve the appropriate design pressure. This study shows how to analyze the inlet hammershock pressure by making practical use of the Republic of Korea Air Force real flight usage data under probabilistic approach and then analyze approximately 30% decreased inlet hammershock pressure compared with the traditional valve.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.39-46
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• 2017

An arrangement of passive sonars is considered to be a fixed underwater surveillance system for detecting an anti-submarine consistently. An effectiveness score for optimizing the arrangement of passive sonars is defined in a function of the probability of detection and localization. These two features contain various probabilistic variations including seasons, sea states, depths of water, etc. Due to this reason, the effectiveness scores show probabilistic characteristics from the input of the arrangement of passive sonars. This paper defines the optimization problem having the results of probabilistic characteristics from various parameters of input conditions. Also, we suggest a simulation-based process of deciding the optimized arrangement of passive sonars using DPSO(Discrete binary version of PSO) method.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.357-379
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• 2011

The problem of invasive species has been recently emerged as one of complicated issues due to increasing globalisation and its consequence of species immigrations. Since in most cases of invasive species it is less likely to fully eradicate them through human efforts, it is often interested in reducing the possibility of ecological disaster caused by the invasive species. This paper provides an optimal control model to minimize such possibility while allowing the stochastic nature of biological growth of the invasive species. Conditions under which the partial eradication effort is optimal are derived. Simple numerical illustration is provided using H1N1 data which is categorized as an invasive disease in microorganism level.

• Journal of KIISE:Databases
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.86-101
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• 2006

The bandwidth of channel and the power of the mobile devices are limited on a wireless environment. In this case, data broadcast has become an excellent technique for efficient data dissemination. A significant amount of researches have been done on generating an efficient broadcast program of a set of data items with different access frequencies over multiple wireless broadcast channels as well as single wireless broadcast channel. In this paper, an efficient data allocation method over multiple wireless broadcasting channels is explored. In the traditional approaches, a set of data items are partitioned into a number of channel based on their access probabilities. However, these approaches ignore a variation of access probabilities of data items allocated in each channel. In practice, it is difficult to have many broadcast channels and thus each channel need to broadcast many data items. Therefore, if a set of data items broadcast in each channel have different repetition frequencies based on their access frequencies, it will give much better performance than the traditional approaches. In this paper, we propose an adaptive data allocation technique based on data access probabilities over multiple broadcast channels. Our proposed technique allows the adaptation of repetition frequency of each data item within each channel by taking its access probabilities into at count.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.538-540
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• 2001

클러스터 시스템의 각 노드에 존재하는 메모리들을 효율적으로 관리하기 위하여 네트워크 메모리의 개념이 등장하였으며 빈번하게 디스크를 접근하는 응용분야에서 속도 향상을 위해 사용될 수 있다. 이는 전통적인 메모리 계층(hierarchy) 구조인 메모리와 디스크 사이에 네트워크 메모리를 추가함으로써 얻어진다. 본 논문에서는 웹 서버 클러스터를 대상으로 문서의 접근 유형에 대한 사전의 정보를 요구하지 않고 실제적으로 구현 가능하며 다양한 웹 문서 접근 확률 분포 값에 대하여 항상 우수한 사용자 응답시간을 가지는 메모리 관리 기법을 제안하고 시뮬레이션을 통해 제안된 방식의 우수성을 검증하였다.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2011.04a
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• pp.349-352
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• 2011

본 논문에서는 변동하중 하에서의 균열 성장 예측을 위하여 손상 모델과 주어진 데이터에 기반하여 균열 성장 모델의 변수를 확률분포로 추정한다. 이를 위해 베이지안 접근법을 활용하여 불확실 변수 결합 확률 분포식을 구축하고, Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)을 통해서 균열 성장 모델의 변수 샘플을 추출하였다. 여기서 추출된 샘플들을 균열 성장 모델에 적용, 균열 성장의 결과를 확률적인 분포로 예측하였다. 위와 같은 추정은 재료의 물성과 같은 변동성이 있는 변수를 모델에 적용하여, 결과값을 확률적인 분포로 예측하였다. 이것은 기존의 안전계수 개념보다 더욱 적절한 안전 기준을 제시 할 수 있다.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.46-53
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• 2005

This paper presents a new approach for determining an accurate incentive levels of Direct Load Control (DLC) program using probabilistic techniques. The economic analysis of DLC resources needs to identify the hourly-by-hourly expected energy-not-served resulting from the random outage characteristics of generators as well as to reflect the availability and duration of DLC resources, which results the computational explosion. Therefore, the conventional methods are based on the scenario approaches to reduce the computation time as well as to avoid the complexity of economic studies. In this paper, we have developed a new technique based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the required expected load control amount in each hour and to decide the incentive level satisfying the economic constraints. In addition, we have applied the variance reduction technique to enhance the efficiency of the simulation. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the suggested method, the numerical studies have been performed for the modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.204-208
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• 2007

보험요율 및 정책 결정의 기본이 되는 파산 확률은 계산이 매우 복잡하여 보통 근사적인 방법을 사용하게 된다. 윤복식(2007)에서는 다양한 상황에서 정확하게 파산확률을 계산할 수 있는 방법이 GPH 분포에 기초하여 제안된 바 있다. 본 연구에서는 이 방법의 타당성을 다양한 실험을 통해 검증하고. 기존의 근사적 방법들과의 비교하는 것이 목적이다. 실험을 통해 이 방법이 일상적인 상황에서 뿐 아니라 클레임 분포가 비정규적인 대재해 상황에서도 정확하게 파산확률을 계산해 주는 것을 관찰할 수 있었고, 계산시간 또한 도 매우 짧아서 실용성을 겸비함을 확인할 수 있었다 또한 이 결과를 근거로, 기초적인 관측 자료만 입력하면 중간에 분포모델 설정단계를 거치지 않고 바로 분석 결과를 얻는 접근법이 제안된다.