• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 위험도 분석

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Preventive Occupational Health and Safety Expense Estimation Method based on Fatality Statistics and Progress Model (중대재해발생률 및 진도관리모델을 고려한 공사진척도별 적정 안전보건관리비 산정기법)

  • Yi, Kyoo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.191-197
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    • 2017
  • The safety nature of construction industry differs from that of manufacturing sector. For instance, accident risk level dramatically varies at each phase of construction process. Korean Occupational and Health Safety Act has been regulated OHS expense and it contributed reducing accident risk and enhancing safety culture for many years. However, although current regulation guides to use OHS expense proportionate to construction progress, it still allows late use of the expense. This study was conducted for the purpose of presenting methods of estimating a step-by-step OHS expense rate required at each construction phase. In order to do provide proper OHS expense schedule, it analysed accident risk of each construction phase by sorting out 1439 cases of construction site fatality reports, and proposed a method of generating appropriate OHS expense scheme according to its construction work progress characteristics. Both linear and sigmoidal S-curve model were used for the analysis, and the latter generally requires earlier use of OHS expense. By comparing the estimated OHS expense use schedule with current criteria, more than 27%p early use of OHS expense is required for the prevention of accident.

The Association of the -675 4G/5G and A-844G Polymorphisms of the Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-1 Gene with a Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Korean Population (한국인의 허혈성 뇌경색 발생과 플라스미노겐 활성 억제인자-1(PAI-1) 유전자 다형성과의 관계)

  • Lee, Byung-Cheol;Byun, Sang-Hyuk;Kim, Soon-Il;Kang, Ki-Hoon;Ahn, Se-Young;Doo, Ho-Kyung;Seo, Jung-Chul;Leem, Kang-Hyun;Cho, Seong-Ho;Oh, Chad K.;Ahn, Young-Min
    • The Journal of Internal Korean Medicine
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2004
  • 연구배경 : 플라스미노겐 활성 억제인자-1 (plasminogen activator inhibitor-1; PAI-1)은 허혈성 뇌경색의 발생의 원인이 되는 섬유소 용해작용의 저하를 매개하는 인자로서, PAI-1의 작용이 촉진되면 섬유소 용해기능이 저하되어 관상동맥 및 뇌혈관질환의 발생을 증가시키게 된다. PAI-1 유전자의 촉진자(promoter) 영역에는 -675 4G/5G (4G/5G)와A -844G (A/G)의 두 개의 유전자 다형성이 존재하며, 이는 PAI-1의 유전자 전사과정에 영향을 미쳐 혈청 PAI-1의 농도를 증가시키고 결과적으로 허혈성 뇌경색의 발생확률을 높이는 작용을 하게 된다. 연구방법 : 허혈성 뇌경색으로 진단 받은 167명의 환자와 173명의 건강인의 말초혈액에서 DNA를 분리한 후 PAI-1의 4G/5G와 A/G 유전자 다형성에 대한 연쇄중합반응 및 제한효소 절편길이 다형성 (polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism; PCR-RFLP) 방법을 이용하여 허혈성 뇌경색 발생과 유전자 다형성과의 관계를 비교 분석하였다. 결과 : 허혈성 뇌경색 환자에서의 4G/4G의 유전자형의 빈도는 15.0%으로 정상 대조군의 33.5%에 비해 현저하게 낮게 나타났다 (P < 0.0001). 각각의 유전자형과 허혈성 뇌경색의 발생 위험도 (odd ratio ; OR)와의 관계를 분석했을 때 4G/4G 유전자형을 가질 경우 위험도는 0.35배로 현저하게 낮아졌으며, (P < 0.0001), 5G/5G 유전자형을 가질 경우 위험도는 4.49배 로 현저하게 높아졌다 (P < 0.0001). 그러나, A/G 유전자 다형성과 허혈성 뇌경색의 발생과는 유의한 연관성을 발견하지 못하였다. 결론 : 이상의 결과로 볼 때 PAI-1 유전자의 4G/4G 유전자형은 허혈성 뇌경색의 발생 비율을 감소시키는 작용을 하는 것으로 여겨진다.

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A Study on the Separation of Tidal Level Data in Coastal Area using Discrete Wavelet Transform (이산형 웨이블릿 변환을 이용한 연안지역 해수위 자료의 성분 분리에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Younghoon;Lee, Myungjin;Lee, ChoongKe;Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Soojum
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.278-278
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    • 2020
  • 감조하천이 위치한 연안 지역의 경우, 강우 및 태풍과 발생과 동시에 만조위가 겹치게 되면 큰 홍수 피해를 입는 지역이다. 감조하천은 조석의 영향으로 인해 물의 흐름 및 수위가 주기적으로 진동하는 특성을 보이고 있다. 조석 현상은 주로 기조력에 의한 주기적인 운동이 발생하지만, 풍속, 저기압 등의 영향도 함께 포함되어 있다. 연안 지역에 대한 홍수 위험 관리를 위해, 본 연구에서는 연안 지역 내 위치한 조위 관측소의 조위 자료를 주기적인 운동을 보이는 조석 성분과 확률론적인 운동을 보이는 파고 성분으로 분리하고자 하였다. 자료 내 각각 세부적인 특성을 확인하기 위해 주파수 대역별 필터링이 가능한 이산형 웨이블릿 변환을 통해 자료를 6단계로 분해하였다. 분해된 각 성분 별 주기성 및 주파수 분석을 실시하여 조석 성분 및 파고 성분으로 분리하였으며, 최종적으로 자료 내 각각 66% 및 34%의 비중을 차지하고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 활용한다면, 파고의 영향을 고려한 연안 지역의 홍수 관리의 기초자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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A study on freeboard assessment of agricultural reservoirs considering climate change (기후변화를 고려한 농업용 저수지 여유고 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hyeok;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.371-381
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    • 2018
  • Domestic agricultural reservoir dam facilities are difficult to manage water resources because of the in summer rainfall increase due to aging and climate change, it is expected that the dam risk will be large due to the overflow. In this study, author selected study basin in order to evaluate hydrological safety of agricultural reservoir dam facilities. And calculated the probable rainfall, Present PMP, Future PMP considering climate change. Also, author carried quantitative analysis out for increasing rainfall due to climate change, analyze freeboard assessment of agricultural reservoir by calculate flood discharge, reservoir flood routing according to rainfall scenarios. As a result of evaluate hydrological safety of agricultural reservoir dam facilities using Future PMP considering climate change, Gosam, Kumkwang, Miho, Cheongcheon reservoir had the Highest Water Level over the design flood level, it is analyzed that it would be vulnerable to overflow risk.

An Experimental Study and Value Analysis for Performance Assessment of the Embo-thane Membrane Waterproofing Method (엘보탄도막방수공법의 성능평가를 위한실험적 연구 및 VE분석)

  • Yoon, Cha-Woong;Lee, Seung-Soo;Kim, Sang-Rok;Seo, Jong-Won
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.123-134
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    • 2009
  • Since 1970s, urethane waterproofing method is broadly used in rooftops, underground spaces, and sports stadium for its outstanding ultraviolet blockage, watertightness, and elasticity. However, development of slippage-resistance and endurance, improvement of function considering convenience and visually pleasing of users, urethane waterproofing method is necessary, since rooftops and underground spaces have slippage and external force risks. Therefore, many improved waterproofing methods are being developed and, recently, embo-thane waterproofing method, which applies embo-spray coating system, has been developed. This paper explains exposure, nonexposure, and floor-material of embo-thane waterproofing method, and then perform experimental study for comparison with urethane waterproofing method about tensile strength, coefficient of expansion, performance of bond, anti-abrasion, and slippage-resistance. In addition, the performance index was presented for the superiority of embo-thane waterproofing method compared to urethane by setting up evaluation criteria considering not only physical performance but also design side of embo-thane waterproofing method, and Value Analysis applying AHP. Also for an assessment considering uncertain result, Monte Carlo Simulation Method was used to operate reliability analysis through statistic approach method.

VaR Estimation of Multivariate Distribution Using Copula Functions (Copula 함수를 이용한 이변량분포의 VaR 추정)

  • Hong, Chong-Sun;Lee, Jae-Hyung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.523-533
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    • 2011
  • Most nancial preference methods for market risk management are to estimate VaR. In many real cases, it happens to obtain the VaRs of the univariate as well as multivariate distributions based on multivariate data. Copula functions are used to explore the dependence of non-normal random variables and generate the corresponding multivariate distribution functions in this work. We estimate Archimedian Copula functions including Clayton Copula, Gumbel Copula, Frank Copula that are tted to the multivariate earning rate distribution, and then obtain their VaRs. With these Copula functions, we estimate the VaRs of both a certain integrated industry and individual industries. The parameters of three kinds of Copula functions are estimated for an illustrated stock data of two Korean industries to obtain the VaR of the bivariate distribution and those of the corresponding univariate distributions. These VaRs are compared with those obtained from other methods to discuss the accuracy of the estimations.

Conjunction Assessments of the Satellites Transported by KSLV-II and Preparation of the Countermeasure for Possible Events in Timeline (누리호 탑재 위성들의 충돌위험의 예측 및 향후 상황의 대응을 위한 분석)

  • Shawn Seunghwan Choi;Peter Joonghyung Ryu;John Kim;Lowell Kim;Chris Sheen;Yongil Kim;Jaejin Lee;Sunghwan Choi;Jae Wook Song;Hae-Dong Kim;Misoon Mah;Douglas Deok-Soo Kim
    • Journal of Space Technology and Applications
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.118-143
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    • 2023
  • Space is becoming more commercialized. Despite of its delayed start-up, space activities in Korea are attracting more nation-wide supports from both investors and government. May 25, 2023, KSLV II, also called Nuri, successfully transported, and inserted seven satellites to a sun-synchronous orbit of 550 km altitude. However, Starlink has over 4,000 satellites around this altitude for its commercial activities. Hence, it is necessary for us to constantly monitor the collision risks of these satellites against resident space objects including Starlink. Here we report a quantitative research output regarding the conjunctions, particularly between the Nuri satellites and Starlink. Our calculation shows that, on average, three times everyday, the Nuri satellites encounter Starlink within 1 km distance with the probability of collision higher than 1.0E-5. A comparative study with KOMPSAT-5, also called Arirang-5, shows that its distance of closest approach distribution significantly differs from those of Nuri satellites. We also report a quantitative analysis of collision-avoiding maneuver cost of Starlink satellites and a strategy for Korea, being a delayed starter, to speed up to position itself in the space leading countries. We used the AstroOne program for analyses and compared its output with that of Socrates Plus of Celestrak. The two line element data was used for computation.

Uniform Hazard Spectrum Evaluation Method for Nuclear Power Plants on Soil Sites based on the Hazard Spectra of Bedrock Sites (암반 지반의 재해도 스펙트럼에 기반한 토사지반 원전 부지의 등재해도 스펙트럼 평가 기법)

  • Hahm, Dae-Gi;Seo, Jeong-Moon;Choi, In-Kil;Rhee, Hyun-Me
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2012
  • We propose a probabilistic method to evaluate the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the soil of nuclear power plant(NPP) sites corresponding to that of a bedrock site. To do this, amplification factors on the surface of soil sites were estimated through site response analysis while considering the uncertainty in the earthquake ground motion and soil deposit characteristics. The amplification factors were calculated by regression analysis with spectral acceleration because these two factors are mostly correlated. The proposed method was applied to the evaluation of UHS for the KNGR (Korean Next Generation Reactor) and the APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor 1400) nuclear power plant sites of B1, B4, C1 and C3. The most dominant frequency range with respect to the annual frequency of earthquakes was evaluated from the UHS analysis. It can be expected that the proposed method will improve the results of integrated risk assessments of NPPs rationally. We expect also that the proposed method will be applied to the evaluation of the UHS and of many other kinds of soil sites.

Determinants of Leverage for Manufacturing Firms Listed in the KOSDAQ Stock Market (한국 KOSDAQ 상장기업들의 자본구조 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Han-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.2096-2109
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    • 2012
  • This study investigates empirical issues that have received little attention in the previous research in the Korean capital market. It is to find any financial determinants on the capital structure for the firms listed in the KOSDAQ(Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotation). Another test is performed to find any possible discriminating factors by utilizing a robust methodology, which may distinguish between the firms belonging the 'prime section' and the 'venture section' in terms of their financial aspects. Moreover, the null hypothesis that the changing trend or movement of a firm's capital structure with respect to its industry mean (or median) may be random, is also tested. For the book-value based debt ratios, size(INSIZE), growth(GROWTH), Market to book value of equity(MVBV), volatility(VOLATILITY), market value of equity (MVE) and section dummy (SECTION) showed their statistically significant effects on the book-value based leverage ratios, respectively, while size(INSIZE), growth(GROWTH), market value of equity(MVE), beta(BETA) and section dummy (SECTION) showed their statistically significant effects on the market-value based leverage ratios. This study also found an interesting result that a firm belonging to each corresponding industry has a tendency for reversion toward its mean and median leverage ratios over the five-year tested period.

The Determinants of Attitudes toward Nuclear Power Plant : The Effects of Earthquake Experience and the Reduction in Electricity Charges (원전 유치에 대한 태도의 결정요인: 지진 경험의 영향 및 전기요금 감면 효과)

  • Kim, Jee Young;Oh, Hyungna
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.139-160
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    • 2018
  • Using survey data of selected 1,349 individuals nationwide in Korea, we measure the influencing factors for the acceptance of nuclear power and estimates the probability of acceptance under several scenarios with different percentages of monetary compensation. Results of panel probit demonstrate that nuclear risk aversion tendency was found to be higher in case of female, younger age, past experience of extreme event such as an earthquake. However, the residents' residency nearby the nuclear power plant was not related to the risk-aversion tendency. In addition, we found that the nuclear acceptance is improved when the monetary compensation rate is increased. Although the policy demand intended to reduce GHG emissions in South Korea, the expansion of nuclear power is not be easy due to the occurrence of recent strong earthquakes because the risk attitude of an individual is influenced by subjective assessments formed through direct and indirect experiences of natural disasters such as an earthquake. Our results suggest that the opposition to construction of nuclear power plant is expected to be further intensified especially when combined with the experiences of threatening earthquakes. As a result, the debate and policy conflicts of nuclear power plants will consistently continue and large social costs are apparent for the acceptance of nuclear power plant.