• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 위험도 분석

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Volunteering, Hypertension Risks, and Related Phenomena: A Prospective Cohort Study (자원봉사활동과 고혈압 및 관련 현상과의 전향적 연구)

  • Lee, Hyunkee
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.397-420
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    • 2021
  • The paper tried to determine relationships between volunteering and hypertension risks, symptom betterment, activity difficulty occurrences, and medicine treatment among middle-aged and older adults, with a prospective cohort study. Multilevel mixed-effects generalized linear models were used for the analysis of longitudinal panel data collected over 10 years from 2008 to 2018, using 5,867 cohort samples. The results showed that those who volunteered at least 200 hours per year were 3.4 times more lower than not-volunteering in risks of hypertension, those who volunteered yearly 50~99 hours were a lot more improved than not-volunteering in the symptom betterment, those who volunteered yearly at least 200 hours were 7.7 times lower than not-volunteering in activity difficulty occurrences, and those who volunteered yearly 50~99 hours were 2.5 times lower than not-volunteering in the occurrences of medicine treatment. These indicate that volunteering among middle-aged and older adults may have health benefits against incident hypertension. Finally the thesis discusses the study limitations, future directions of studies, and the practices implications.

Analysis of Performance Influencing Factor in Chemical Process Industry : A Practical Application (석유화학 산업에서의 수행영향인자 및 근본원인 분석 결과)

  • Yu, Kwang-Soo;Kim, Eun-Jung;Kim, Yong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.11 no.2 s.35
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    • pp.60-64
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    • 2007
  • Chemical Process industry in Korea has over 30 year's of history and is likely to face potential incidents. The traditional risk analysis and control system in Chemical Process industry focuses on mechanical defects, overlooking the human performance control. Although development of automation technology and controlling technology was necessary, human decision factor is essential to preventing accidents in the Chemical Process. Almost all serious accidents take place when inappropriate humanperformance and mechanical defects of safety equipments simultaneously occurs. The AHRA(Advanced Human Reliability Analyzer) software has been developed to collect failure data and analyze human error probability (Reliability) in Chemical Process Industry in Korea. This paper describes the HRA analysis result of PIF(Performance Influencing Factor) evaluation, HEP(Human Error Probability) and root cause of accidents by applying a Chemical Process Industry related accident data. This analysis result should present a scheme that, by controlling human error factor other than putting safety management funds into the machinery in plants, can reduce cost and maximize the safety in Chemical Process Industry.

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Flood Modeling in the Donam Stream Using Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우-유출모형을 이용한 도남천 지역 하천범람 모델링)

  • Lee, Dong Hyeok;Jun, Kye Won;Kim, Il Dong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.167-167
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    • 2021
  • 2018년 재해연보에 따르면 최근 10년간 자연재해는 태풍과 호우에 의한 평균피해액이(301,680백만원) 전체 재해평균피해액(344,124백만원)의 87.6%로 나타났다. 이처럼 물 관련 재해가 다른 재해에 비해 상대적으로 큰 비중을 차지하는 대표적 원인은 국지성 집중호우의 발달과 개발로 인한 불투수면적의 증가 및 지표면 유출량의 증가등이 있다. 이러한 요인들로 하천범람이 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며 이에 대응할 치수계획수립이 필요한 실정이다. 세종특별자치시의 하천기본계획(2020.01)에 따르면 세종특별자치시의 금남면 도남리의 도남천지구는 제방고 및 여유고 부족과 인명 및 재산피해 우려 지역으로 하천재해 위험지구로 선정되었다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 도남천지구에 강우-유출모형을 적용하여 빈도별 월류위치 파악과 하천범람지도를 작성하여 대피범위등 유역치수계획수립시 기초자료에 활용 되고자 한다. 강우분석을 위한 강우관측소 선정은 티센망 확인을 통하여 공주시(반포중) 강우관측소를 선정하였다. 강우분석은 자료기간이 짧은 강우관측소에서도 확률강우량을 산정할 수 있는 지역빈도해석을 하였으며 분석결과 적합한 확률분포형은 GEV인 것으로 나타났다. 빈도별 홍수량 산정을 위해 HEC-HMS모형을 이용하였으며 산정방법은 깅우-유출 관계 분석 방법에 의한 다양한 합성단위도 방법중 일관성과 객관성이 입증되어 온 Clark단위도 법을 사용하였다. 산정한 홍수량을 HEC-RAS모형에 적용하여 월류구간을 파악하였으며 월류위치 및 대피범위를 가시화 하기 위해 HEC-GeoRAS모형을 사용하여 빈도별 하천범람지도를 작성하였다. 본 연구는 도남천지구에 빈도별 하천범람지도를 작성 하였다. 이를 통하여 하천범람시 대피범위등 유역치수계획 수립 시 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.

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Human Health Risk Assessment of BTEX from Daesan Petrochemical Industrial Complex (대산 석유화학 산업단지 인근 지역에서의 BTEX 인체 위해성 평가)

  • Lee, Jihyeong;Jang, Yong-Chul;Cheon, Kwangsoo;Kim, Bora
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.321-333
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the concentration and distribution characteristics of BTEX (benzene toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) emitted from Daesan Petrochemical Industrial Complex were examined to determine their potential hazards to local residents. Residents living nearby the complex areas may be exposed to the chemicals through various media (air, water, and soil), especially by air. This study evaluated human health risks by inhalation using both deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment approaches. As a result of the deterministic risk assessment, the non-cancer risk was much lower than the regulation limit of hazard index (HI 1.0) for all the points. However, in case of cancer risk evaluation, it was found that the risk of excess cancer for benzene at point A located in the industrial complex was 2.28×10-6, which slightly exceeded the standard regulatory limit of 1.0×10-6. In addition, the probabilistic risk assessment revealed that the percentile exceeding the standard of 1.0×10-6was found to be 45.3%. The sensitivity analysis showed that exposure time (ET) had the greatest impact on the results. Based on the risk assessment study, it implied that ethylbenzene, toluene, and xylene had little adverse effects on potential human exposure, but benzene often exceeded the cancer risk standard (1.0×10-6). Further studies on extensive VOCs monitoring are needed to evaluate the potential risks of industrial complex areas.

Measurement and Practices of Workaholism for Korean Workers (일중독 측정과 실태)

  • Yoon, Jayoung
    • Korean Journal of Labor Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.229-260
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    • 2018
  • Workaholism refers to a state in which work is the center of self, a state in which other life other than work is deemed worthless, and a state in which one feels that his or her life ends when things get lost. There are concerns that South Korea's work-centered institutions, cultures and long-time labor practices expose workers to workaholism. This study identifies the prevalence of workaholism and its risk factors among workers using a representative sample from Korean Labor and Income Panel Study. The results of empirical analysis of the wide range of workaholism showed that 7.0% of Korean workers were work-addicts. Male, workers working long hours, daily workers, employers, the self-employed were more likely to be work-addicts. Those who think that workload is high beyond regular working hours are more likely to be work-addicts. These results were also confirmed by regression analysis. It suggests that policies to shorten working hours and strengthen job and income stability can reduce the risk of workaholism and balance between work and life.

Hydraulic Analysis of Tailing Dam using GIS (GIS 기법을 이용한 광미댐 수문 분석)

  • Song, Won-Jyong;Heo, Sung;Kim, Tae-Heok
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2008
  • Hydraulic analysis in a dam that has a single outlet of water can be made through a simple comparison between the total precipitation and the volume of discharged water. In case of tailing dams this estimation could yield an error because several drainage facilities are worked independently as well as simultaneously. In this research, a capability of the drainage system in the tailing dam of the old Sangdong Mine was analysed by the means of GIS technic. As a result of this study, it was expected that in the normal working condition of the whole drainage system, the flooding of water over the dam should not occur in spite of the consecutive precipitation during one hour with an intensity of 80.31 mm/hr, a probable precipitation within 100 years. It was, however, revealed that, if the drainage system did not work completely, the water could flood over the dam when the total precipitation reached 251.1 mm.

The Effects of Driving Behavior Determinants on Dangerous Driving and Traffic Accidents in the Reckless Drivers Group: A Path Analysis Study (사고 및 음주운전자들의 운전행동결정요인 특성이 위험행동 및 교통사고에 미치는 영향: 경로분석 연구)

  • O, Ju-Seok;Lee, Sun-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.2 s.95
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2007
  • Speeding and drunken driving make drivers fail to detect hazards and cope with various driving situations. These behaviors also raise the possibility of being involved in traffic accidents and tend to increase the number of fatalities. The authors compared the driving behavior determinants of a rockless drivers group, consisting of individuals who have committed traffic accidents or offended regulations through drunken driving, with a normal drivers group. In the results, the reckless drivers group showed high scores of 'speeding' and 'drunken driving', and they also stated that they had more experiences of speeding, drunken driving and traffic accidents. In the path analysis study, it was found that the impacts of the rockless drivers group's 'risk sensitivity' and 'situational adaptability' on traffic accidents were stronger than those of normal drivers. This means 'risk sensitivity' and 'situational adaptability' can explain the origins of traffic accidents better in the reckless drivers group than accidents of the normal drivers group.

Reliability Analysis of Caisson Type Quaywall (안벽구조물의 신뢰성 해석)

  • Yoon, Gil-Lim;Kim, Dong-Hywan;Kim, Hong-Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.498-509
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    • 2008
  • Reliability analyses of Level I, II and III for bearing capacity, overturning and sliding of quaywall are carried out to investigate their safety levels depending upon its failure modes, and sensitivity analyses of each design variable are performed to find their effects on safety levels of quaywall. Reliability indices was 1.416 for both level II and III for case study I, and with 2.201 and 1.880, respectively, for the case study II at the critical loading conditions. Thus we were able to know that Level II (FORM) approach is good enough to use in practical design. Generally, it was found that probabilities of failure of quaywall were higher for sliding and bearing capacity failure modes and lower for overturning failure mode. From sensitivity analyses, the most influential design variables to reliability index of quaywall were coefficient of friction, residual water pressure and resistance moment for the sliding, overturning and bearing capacity failure modes, respectively. Especially, the sensitivity of reliability index due to inertial force and dynamic water pressures, which include a large COV when earthquake occurs, did not change greatly.

Geospatial Assessment of Frost and Freeze Risk in 'Changhowon Hwangdo' Peach (Prunus persica) Trees as Affected by the Projected Winter Warming in South Korea: II. Freezing Risk Index Based on Dormancy Depth as a Proxy for Physiological Tolerance to Freezing Temperature (겨울기온 상승에 따른 복숭아 나무 '장호원황도' 품종의 결과지에 대한 동상해위험 공간분석: II. 휴면심도로 표현한 생리적 내동성에 근거한 동해위험지수)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Soo-Ock;Chung, U-Ran;Yun, Jin-I.;Hwang, Kyu-Hong;Kim, Jung-Bae;Yoon, Ik-Koo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 2009
  • In order to predict the risk of freeze injury for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach trees, we used the dormancy depth (i.e., the daily chill unit accumulation during the overwintering period) as a proxy for the short-term, physiological tolerance to freezing temperatures. A Chill-days model was employed and its parameters such as base temperature and chilling requirement were optimized for peach trees based on the 12 observational experiments during the 2008-2009 winter. The model predicted the flowering dates much closer to the observations than other models without considering dormancy depth, showing the strength of employing dormancy depth into consideration. To derive empirical equations for calculating the probabilistic freeze risk, the dormancy depth was then combined with the browning ratio and the budburst ratio of frozen peach fruit branches. Given the exact date and the predicted minimum temperature, the equations calculate the probability of freeze damages such as a failure in budburst or tissue browning. This method of employing dormancy depth in addition to freezing temperature would be useful in locating in advance the risky areas of freezing injury for peach trees production under the projected climate change.

A Study on the Secondary Carcinogenesis Rate of Vestibular Schwannoma Disease using Glass Dosimeter (유리선량계를 이용한 청신경초종 질환의 2차 발암률에 관한 연구)

  • Joo-Ah Lee;Gi-Hong Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.243-248
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to analyze the secondary carcinogenesis rate caused by exposure of organs at risk of damage using a glass dosimeter during radiosurgery in vestibular schwannoma disease. Using a pediatric phantom of human tissue equivalent material, the volume of the tumor was set to a total of three volumes: 0.506 cm3, 1.008 cm3, and 2.032 cm3, and a radiosurgery plan was established with an average dose of 18.4 ± 3.4 Gy. After mounting the human body phantom on the table of surgical equipment, glass dosimeters were placed on the right eye, left eye, thyroid gland, thymus, right lung, and left lung to measure the exposure dose, respectively. In this study, the incidence of secondary cancer due to exposure to damaged organs during gamma knife radiosurgery in vestibular schwannoma disease with the largest tumor volume of 2.032 cm3 was measured with a glass dosimeter. This study studies the risk of secondary radiation exposure dose that can occur during stereotactic radiosurgery, and it is considered that it will be used as basic data in the field of radiation damage related to the stochastic effect of radiation in the future.