• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 수요

Search Result 4,869, Processing Time 0.035 seconds

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.237-262
    • /
    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

The verdict category and legal decision: Focused on the role of representation of 'innocent' (평결범주와 일반인의 법적판단: '무죄표상'의 역할을 중심으로)

  • Han, Yuhwa
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-22
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study tested the effect of the verdict category of lay-participation trial in Korea on the legal decision of layperson and the role of representation of 'innocent' in the process. Representation of 'innocent' refers to a psychological threshold for deciding someone's innocence (no fault or sin) in a general sense. The functions as a threshold for a legal decision of 'beyond a reasonable doubt (BRD)' and the individual threshold (IT), regarded as a standard for judgment of guilt established by law and an estimate of an individual's threshold, respectively, were compared. This study used a 2×2 complete factorial design in which the verdict category (guilty/innocent vs. guilty/not guilty) and the defendant's likelihood of guilt (low vs. high) were manipulated. Data from 137 lay-people who voluntarily participated in the online experiment was analyzed. The experiment's procedure was in the order of measuring 'representation of innocent' and the likelihood of guilt of an accused, presenting one of four trial vignettes, and obtaining legal decisions (verdict confidence and estimation of the likelihood of guilt for the defendant). As a result, it was found that the verdict category did not significantly affect the legal decision of layperson. However, the guilty verdict rate of the 'guilty/innocent' condition tended to be higher than those of the 'guilty/not guilty' condition. The layperson's representation of 'innocent' and the verdict category had an interaction effect on the difference between BRD and IT (threshold change) at the significance level of .1. In the 'guilty/innocent' condition, the threshold change varying with layperson's representation of 'innocent' was larger than in the 'guilty/not guilty' condition. In comparing the function of BRD and IT, IT significantly predicted the lay person's legal decision at the significance level of .1 by interacting with the likelihood of guilt for the defendant. Therefore, it could be said that IT was a better threshold estimator than BRD. The implication of this study is that it provided experimental evidence for the effect of the verdict category of lay-participation trial in Korea, which is a problem often raised among lawyers, and suggested logical reasoning and empirical grounds for the psychological mechanism of the possible effect.

Comparison between 24 hr pH Monitoring and Esophageal Scintigrapy in Children Presenting with Gastroesophageal Reflux Symptoms (식도 동위 원소 검사와 24시간 식도 pH 검사와의 비교 연구)

  • Wi, Ho Sung;Kim, Yong Joo;Seol, In Joon;Choi, Yun Young
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.163-169
    • /
    • 2004
  • Purpose: Many diagnostic modalities have been used for diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Feeding materials during esophageal pH monitoring may interfere the result of examination and esophageal pH monitoring can not diagnose GER in case of alkaline reflux. The purpose of our study is to evaluate whether scintigraphy can substitiute 24 hr pH monitoring in children with GERD. Methods: From March 2002 to June 2003, 23 patients (12 boys and 11 girls, mean age 27 months) who have been admitted to Hanyang University Hospital presented with GER symptoms (recurrent vomiting, cough, chest pain, irritability) were included in the study. Scintigraphy and 24 hr pH monitoring were performed in all patients. Results: Six out of the 23 patients (26.1%) had evidence of GER on 24 hr pH monitoring, whereas nine of 23 patients (39.2%) exhibited GER by scintigraphy. Two out of the 23 patients could not be tested because of irritability. Three (14.3%) patients had evidence of GER on both 24 hr pH monitoring and scintigraphy, three (14.3%) patients on only 24 hr pH monitoring, six (28.6%) patients on only scintigraphy, and nine (42.9%) patients had no evidence of GER on both methods. No correlation was observed between 24 hr pH monitoring and scintigraphic results by Fisher's exact test (p=0.523) or Kendal's tau (t=0.678). Conclusion: The results of this study demonstrated that there was no correlation between 24 hr pH monitoring and scintigraphy. Therefore these modalities could be used as complementary tests to diagnose GERD.

  • PDF

Evaluation of compensator to reduce thermal sensation in oncological hyperthermia (고주파 온열암 치료 시 열감감소를 위해 자체 제작한 보상체의 유효성 평가)

  • Lee, Yeong Cheol;Kim, Sun Myung;Jeong, Deok Yang;Kim, Young Bum
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.27-32
    • /
    • 2017
  • Objectives: Oncological hyperthermia is a treatment to selectively kill cancer cells by directly applying heat to cancer cells or indirectly demage cancer cells. One of the most side effects of treatment is burn that can appear on the skin. In areas with irregularities such as the umbilicus, the patient feels a sense of hot and treatment may be discontinued. Therefore, in order to eliminate the irregularities of these areas, compensators are manufactured and measured to decrease in temperature. Materials and Methods: The temperature of the four sites (umbilicus, near the umbilicus, 5 cm below the umbilicus, back) was measured five times around the umbilicus in patients who were treated at oncological hyperthermia treatment device(EHY-2000, Oncotherm Kft, Hungary). The temperature sensor (TM-100, Oncotherm Kft, Hungary) was attached to four sites and the changes were observed at 5, 15, 25, 35, and 50 minutes after treatment. Compensators of three materials were used(Vaseline, Bolus, Dental resin). The data measured five times were compared for each compensator. Results: The temperature change when the compensator was not used increase from 34.65 degrees to 42.9 degrees on average. The near umbilicus was changed from 32.20 degrees to 37.00 degrees, and the 5 cm below the umbilicus was changed from 31.90 to 34.41 degrees. When the compensator material was inserted into the umbilicus, the temperature change was measured as 5.42 degrees for bolus, 6.55 degrees for vaseline, and 6.83 degrees for resin. Conclusion: Using the compensator in the region where the irregularities such as the umbilicus, the heat sensation could be reduced. the use of a resin that can be customized not only lowers the temperature but also significantly reduces the feeling of the patient. It will be possible to reduce the heat sensation in the treatment and to treat it in a more comfortable condition.

  • PDF

Effects of Dry Eye Symptoms on Work Productivity and General Activity in Newly Building (신축건물에서 안구건조증이 작업생산성과 일상활동에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hyojin;Park, Chan-Jung;Lim, Byung-Seo;Kim, Ho-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.389-396
    • /
    • 2014
  • Purpose: The study examined dry eye symptoms of occupants in a newly constructed building and its effects on their work productivity and general activity. Methods: The study subjects were 33 office workers who spent more than eight hours per day on average in a new building constructed in the past three months. The indoor air quality of the new building was evaluated by measuring aldehydes, temperature and humidity. The level of dry eye symptoms was classified into normal, mild, moderate and severe by using the Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI). The experience of LASIK surgery, use of eye makeup, daily use time of a computer and smart-phone, and average daily working hours were also examined. The Work Limitation Productivity Questionnaire was used as the questionnaire about work productivity and general activity to measure the impairment level on a ten-point scale. Results: The concentration variation of formaldehyde in the office was $42.42{\pm}6.30{\mu}g/m^3$. The temperature and humidity were $26.2{\pm}0.70^{\circ}C$ and $40{\pm}1%$, respectively. The respondents with normal, mild, moderate and severe dry eye symptoms were 15.2%, 18.2%, 18.2% and 48.5%, respectively. The severity of dry eye symptoms and impairment of work productivity and general activity demonstrated high correlations of 0.599 and 0.655, respectively (p<0.001). Compared to the normal case, severe dry eye symptoms demonstrated significantly high impairment of work productivity and interruption of general activity (p<0.001). The case of serious dry symptoms showed the possibilities of having impairment level of work productivity and interruption of general activity above three points 3.26 times (p=0.032) and 2.25 times (p=0.045), respectively, higher than that of the normal case. Conclusions: It was confirmed that dry eye symptoms among office workers in a newly constructed building affects work productivity and general activity.

Feeding Desaturation and Effects of Orocutaneous Stimulation in Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants (초극소 저체중 출생아에서 수유 시 산소포화도 저하와 구강자극 요법의 효과)

  • Choi, Hae-Won;Park, Hye-Won;Kim, Hee-Young;Lim, Gi-Na;Koo, So-Eun;Lee, Byong-Sop;Kim, Ai-Rhan;Kim, Ki-Soo;Pi, Soo-Young
    • Neonatal Medicine
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.193-200
    • /
    • 2010
  • Purpose: Feeding desaturation is a common problem among preterm infants which can result in prolonged hospital stays, longterm feeding difficulties and growth delay. The purpose of this study was to identify the characteristics of premature infants with feeding desaturation and to examine the effect of orocutaneous stimulation on oral feeding. Methods: During the first phase of this study, 125 extremely low birth weight infants were reviewed retrospectively. Characteristics between infants with feeding desaturation (n=34) and those without feeding desaturation (n=91) were examined. During the second phase, 29 infants recruited from March, 2009 to May, 2010 were subjected to orocutaneous stimulation. The results of orocutaneous stimulation were compared to a control group (n=81). Results: The first phase of the study revealed that extremely low birth weight infants with feeding desaturation were significantly lower in gestational ages at birth, and had lower 5 minute apgar scores, more gastroesophageal refluxes and bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Infants without feeding desaturation reached full enteral feeding significantly earlier and showed shorter duration of hospital stay. At the second phase, infants in the intervention group showed shorter days to achieve initiation of bottle feeding, shorter days in achievement of full bottle feeding, last episodes of feeding desaturation and length of hospital stay compared to the control group of similar characteristics. Conclusion: Orocutaneous stimulation among extremely low birth weight infants results in earlier achievement of full bottle feedings without episodes of feeding desaturation hence shortens the length of hospital stay.

Mid-term Results of the Congenital Bicuspid Aortic Valve Repair (선천성 이엽성 대동맥판막질환에 대한 판막성형술의 중기 성적)

  • 조광리;곽재건;안혁
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.37 no.10
    • /
    • pp.833-838
    • /
    • 2004
  • Background: Despite the excellent early results after the repair of congenital bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) disease, the mid-term durability of the repaired valve has still controversies. Material and Method: To evaluate the mid-term results of BAV repair, retrospective review of medical records and echocardiographic data were done. Between 1994 and 2003, twenty-two patients underwent reparative procedure for either regurgitant or stenotic congenital bicuspid aortic valve (BAV). Result: Mean age was $41\pm14$ years with male predominance (Male=17, Female=5). The pathophysiologies of the BAV were regurgitation-dominant in 20 (91%) and stenosis-dominant in 2 (9%) cases. Various repair techniques were used for raphe, prolapsed leaflet, thickened leaflet, and commissures; 1) release of raphe in 19 (86%), 2) wedge resection and primary repair in 11 (50%), pericardial patch reinforcement after plication of the leaflet in 6 (27%), and plication of the leaflet in 3 (14%), 3) slicing of thickened leaflet was used in 12 (55%) cases, 4) commissuroplasty in 8 (36%), and commissurotomy in 6 (27%) cases. There was no in-hospital mortality. During the mean follow-up of $38\pm17$ months, one patient underwent aortic valve replacement after developing acute severe regurgitation from dehiscence of the suture on postoperative 2 months. New York Heart Association functional class was improved from $1.9\pm0.6$ to $1.2\pm0.5$ (p<0.01). Left ventricular end-systolic and diastolic dimension (LVESD/LVEDD) were also improved from $45\pm9$ and $67\pm10$ to $37\pm10$ and $56\pm10,$ respectively (p<0.01). The grade of aortic regurgitation (AR) was improved from preoperative $(3.1\pm1.2)$ to post-bypass $(0.9\pm0.7).$ However, the grade at last follow-up $(1.7\pm1.1)$ was deteriorated during the follow-up period (p<0.01). Freedom from grade III and more AR at one, three, and four year were 89.7%, 89.7%, and 39.9% respectively. Conclusion: Midterm clinical result of the BAV repair was favorable. But, the durability of the repaired valve was not satisfactory.

A Study on the Influence of Nascent Entrepreneurs Motivation and Preparation on the Business Continuity: Based on the Mediation Effect of Start-up Satisfaction (초기창업자의 창업동기와 창업준비가 사업계속의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 창업만족도의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Han, Hyang Won;Ha, Kyu Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.15 no.5
    • /
    • pp.77-98
    • /
    • 2020
  • Recently, the government provided about 35 trillion won to start-ups through a large amount of start-up support funds from the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund and the Korea Development Bank, and more than 100 trillion won to start-ups over the past three years.(2015-2018) The Ministry of SMEs and Startups announced that a total of 1.4517 trillion won will be supported by 16 ministries (90 projects) after surveying start-up support projects by ministries in 2020 to create a start-up country. Indeed, among the budgets supported by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups, startups accounted for 85%, while scale-ups (growth and maturity) were only 15%. However, the survival rate of Korean start-ups was far lower than that of developed countries. The survival rate for the three years after the start-up was 39.1 percent, with only about 4 out of 10 surviving, with 27.5 percent surviving for five years, and only 3 out of 10 surviving. On the other hand, overseas start-ups have a survival rate of twice as high as that of Korea for five years. Accordingly, this study aims to empirically analyze and examine the need for research on nascent entrepreneurs, which have recently been actively supported by the government, as well as the impact of start-up motivation and start-up preparation on the intention to continue business. The survey was conducted from April 1 to May 15, 2020 for nascent entrepreneurs nationwide, and 222 of the total 245 copies were analyzed, and the questionnaire was measured using the Likert 5-point scale. As a result of the analysis, first, all factors constituting start-up motivation were adopted by significantly affecting start-up satisfaction. In addition, among the sub-factors of nascent entrepreneurs' preparation, item preparation was adopted as a significant influence on start-up satisfaction. Second, the nascent entrepreneurs' satisfaction level was adopted by having a significant impact on the business continuity. Third, some of the motivations for self-realization of the motivation for start-ups were adopted by having a significant impact on the business continuity. In addition, the preparation of items for the start-up preparation of nascent entrepreneurs was partially adopted as they had a significant impact on the business continuity. Fourth, it was adopted by the mediation effect of start-up satisfaction between the motivation of the nascent entrepreneurs' preparation and the business continuity. In addition, it was adopted by the medium effect of start-up satisfaction between the nascent entrepreneurs' preparation and the business continuity. Based on the results of these studies, it is intended to draw practical implications, and to provide useful policy implications to increase nascent entrepreneurs' satisfaction and continue to carry out their start-ups.

A Study on the Prolactin Receptor 3 (PRLR3) Gene and the Retinol-binding Protein 4 (RBP4) Gene as Candidate Genes for Growth and Litter Size Traits of Berkshire in Korea (국내 버크셔 돼지에서 성장 및 산자수의 후보유전자로서 PRLR3와 RBP4에 관한 연구)

  • Do, Chang-Hee;Kim, Seon-Ku;Kang, Han-Suk;Shin, Teak-Soon;Lee, Hong-Gu;Cho, Seong-Keun;Do, Kyung-Tak;Song, Ji-Na;Kim, Tae-Hun;Choi, Bong-Hwan;Sang, Byung-Chan;Joo, Yeong-Kuk;Park, Jun-Kyu;Lee, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Jeong-Ill;Park, Jeong-Suk;Sin, Young-Soo;Kim, Byung-Woo;Cho, Byung-Wook
    • Journal of Life Science
    • /
    • v.20 no.6
    • /
    • pp.825-830
    • /
    • 2010
  • Two diallelic markers at candidate gene loci, the prolactin receptor 3 (PRLR3) gene and the retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) gene were evaluated for their association with growth and litter size traits in Berkshire. Genetic evaluation was conducted for 5,919 pigs with pedigree information, which included 3,480 growth performance records and 775 litter size records of 224 sows. From the same herd, genotyping was carried out on 144 and 156 animals for PRLR3 and RBP4, respectively. After assigning a genotype to subjects in which both parents had a homozygous genotype, numbers of genotyped animals increased to 474 and 338, for the PRLR3 gene and RBP4 gene, respectively. The genotype effects of two markers were estimated with breeding values of the genotyped animals. The additive effects of total number of piglets born and number of piglets born alive in the PRLR3 locus were -0.28 and -0.13, respectively. The dominance effect of the RBP4 locus on average daily gain was -10.58 g. However, the polymorphism of the RBP4 locus in total number of piglets born and number of piglets born alive has shown -0.34 and -0.33 of the additive genetic effects. In view of the results, MAS (marker-assisted selection) favoring B alleles of RBP4 and PRLR3 loci could potentially accelerate the rate of the genetic improvement in the litter size traits.

A Study on the Effect of Residential Environment Characteristics on Residential Satisfaction, Residential Ownership Consciousness, and Housing Movement: Focusing on MZ Generation in the COVID-19 Period (주거환경특성이 주거만족도, 주거보유의식과 주거이동에 미치는 영향 연구: 코로나19 시기의 MZ세대를 중심으로)

  • Yun-Hui, Hwang;Jaeho, Chung
    • Land and Housing Review
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.47-66
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study reviews prior studies on the residential environment characteristics, residential satisfaction, residential ownership consciousness and housing movement of MZ generation and analyze the structural equation models using the 2020 Korea Housing Survey data. Using 14 residential characteristics based on three classifications, we explore the effects on residential satisfaction, residential ownership consciousness, and housing movement. The empirical results are summarized as follows. First, based on factor analysis with Varimax of principal component analysis, parking facility items were excluded from the analysis by hindering validity, and as a result, KMO was 0.925 and Bartlett's test result showed a significant probability of less than 0.01. This indicates that the factor analysis model was suitable. Second, the results of the structural equation analysis for the MZ generation show that the surrounding environment, which is a potential variable of the residential environment characteristics, was statistically significant, but the accessibility and convenience were not statistically significant. Third, we find that the higher the satisfaction with the accessibility of commercial facilities, the more significant the sense of housing ownership appears. This suggests that the younger generation such as the MZ generation has a stronger desire for consumption. Fourth, the overall housing satisfaction of the MZ generation was significant for housing movement, but not for housing ownership. Compared to the industrialized generation, the baby boom generation, and the X generation, MZ generation shows distinct factors for housing satisfaction, housing ownership, and housing movement. Therefore, the residential environment characteristics of the residential survey should be improved and supplemented following the trend of the times. In addition, the government and local governments should prioritize actively participating in the housing market that suits the environment and characteristics of the target generation. Finally, our study provides implications regarding the need for housing-related research on how differ in special temporal situations such as COVID-19 in the future.