• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2022

A weighted linear combination of seismic fragility models previously developed for cut-and-cover railway tunnels was presented and the appropriateness of the combined model was evaluated. The seismic fragility function is expressed in the form of a cumulative probability function of the lognormal distribution based on the peak ground acceleration. The model uncertainty can be reduced by combining models independently developed. Equal weight is applied to four models. The new seismic fragility function was developed for each damage level by determining the median and standard deviation, which are model metrics. Comparing fragility curves developed for other bored tunnels, cut-and-cover tunnels for high-speed railway system have a similar level of fragility. We postulated that this is due to the high seismic design standard for high-speed railway tunnel.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.10
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• pp.747-757
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• 2021

Quantification of extreme rainfall is very important in establishing a flood protection plan, and a general measure of extreme rainfall is expressed as an T-year return level. In this study, a method was proposed for quantifying spatial distribution and uncertainty of daily rainfall depths with various return periods using a hierarchical Bayesian model combined with climate and geographical information, and was applied to the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region. The annual maximum daily rainfall depth of six automated synoptic observing system weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration in the study area was fitted to the generalized extreme value distribution. The applicability and reliability of the proposed method were investigated by comparing daily rainfall quantiles for various return levels derived from the at-site frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis based on the index flood method. The uncertainty of the regional frequency analysis based on the index flood method was found to be the greatest at all stations and all return levels, and it was confirmed that the reliability of the regional frequency analysis based on the hierarchical Bayesian model was the highest. The proposed method can be used to generate the rainfall quantile maps for various return levels in the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region and other regions with similar spatial sizes.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.23-39
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• 2019

The use of drone-bots is demanded in times regarding the reduction of military force, the spread of the life-oriented thought, and the use of innovative technology in the defense through the fourth industrial revolution. Especially, the drone's surveillance and reconnaissance are expected to play a big role in the future battlefield. However, there are not many cases in which the concept of operation is studied scientifically. In this study, We propose search algorithms for reconnaissance drone through simulation analysis. In the simulation, the drone and target move linearly in continuous space, and the target is moving adopting the Random-walk concept to reflect the uncertainty of the battlefield. The research investigates the effectiveness of existing search methods such as Parallel and Spiral Search. We analyze the probabilistic analysis for detector radius and the speed on the detection probability. In particular, the new detection algorithms those can be used when an enemy moves toward a specific goal, PS (Probability Search) and HS (Hamiltonian Search), are introduced. The results of this study will have applicability on planning the path for the reconnaissance operations using drone-bots.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.651-656
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• 2014

Corrosion has a significant influence upon the reliability assessment and the maintenance planning of gas pipeline. Corrosion defects occurred on the underground pipeline can be obtained by conducting periodic in-line inspection (ILI). However, little study has been done for practical use of ILI data. This paper deals with remaining lifetime prediction of the gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline parameter includes uncertainty in its operation, a probabilistic approach is adopted in this paper. A pipeline fails when its operating pressure is larger than the pipe failure pressure. In order to estimate the failure probability, this paper uses First Order Reliability Method (FORM) which is popular in the field of structural engineering. A well-known Battelle code is chosen as the computational model for the pipe failure pressure. This paper develops a Matlab GUI for illustrating failure probability predictions Our result indicates that clustering of corrosion defects is helpful for improving a prediction accuracy and preventing an unnecessary maintenance.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.64-74
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• 1997

The necessity and importance of fatigue failure to variable load has been appreciated as the structural design technique develops and use of high tensile steel is increasing. This is much more appreciated for a large ship such as VLCC. The rigorous fatigue analysis and safety assessment should be, hence, carried out at the design stage to avoid the possibility of fatigue failure and to achieve the design result having a sufficient structural safety to fatigue strength. This paper deals with an efficient spectral fatigue analysis of ship structures by introducing the concept of stress influence coefficient. In the process included are probabilistic loading analysis, evaluation of long-term distribution of stress range and estimation of fatigue life applying the spectral fatigue analysis. An integrated computer program has been developed in which reliability analysis to fatigue strength is also included and has been applied to D/H VLCC.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2005.07b
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• pp.628-630
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• 2005

베이지안 네트워크는 확률이론에 기초해 불확실성이 존재하는 실세계 문제를 해결하는데 많은 기여를 하고 있다. 최근 네트워크 구조를 데이터로부터 자동으로 학습하는 많은 연구가 이루어져 보다 손쉽게 많은 사람들이 사용할 수 있게 되었다. 하지만 한번 학습하여 고정된 네트워크의 구조는 새롭게 수집되는 데이터의 특성을 잘 반영하지 못하는 문제를 지니고 있다. 환경의 변화에 맞게 지속적으로 네트워크 구조를 갱신하기 위한 연구가 진행되고 있으며 본 연구에서는 Lam이 제안한 MDL기반 평가함수를 이용한 진화적 갱신 방법을 제안하여 갱신 성능을 향상시키고자 한다. 벤치마크 네트워크인 ASIA에 대한 실험 결과 제안한 방법이 기존의 지역적 탐색 방법에 비해 향상된 성능을 제공함을 확인하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.355-366
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• 1994

The USNRC issued a revised ECCS rule that allows the use of best estimate computer codes for safety analysis. The rule also requires an estimation of uncertainty in calculated system response when applying the best estimate computer codes. A practical realistic evaluation methodology to evaluate the ECCS performance that satisfies the requirements of the ECCS rule has been developed and this paper describes the application of new realistic evaluation methodology to large break LOCA for, the demonstration of the new methodology. The computer code RELAP5/MOD3/KAERI, which was improved from RELAP5/MOD3.1, was used as the best estimate code in the application. The uncertainty of the code was evaluated by assessing several separate and integral effect tests, and for the application to actual plant Kori 3 & 4 was selected as the reference plant. Response surfaces for blowdown and reflood PCTs were generated from the results of the sensitivity analyses and probability distribution functions were established by random sampling or Monte-Carlo method for each response surface. Final uncertainties were quantified at 95% probability level and safety margins for large break LOCA were discussed.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.623-628
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• 2007

The accurate peak response estimation of a seismically excited structure with frictional damping system(FDS) is very difficult since the structure with FDS shows nonlinear behavior dependent on the structural period, loading characteristics, and relative magnitude between the frictional force and the excitation load. Previous studies have estimated that by replacing a nonlinear system with an equivalent linear one or by employing the response spectrum obtained based on nonlinear time history and statistical analysis. In the case that an earthquake load is defined with probabilistic characteristics, the corresponding response of the structure with FDS has probabilistic distribution. In this study, nonlinear time history analyses were performed for the structure with FDS subjected to artificial earthquake loads generated using Kanai-Tajimi filter. An equation for the probability density function (PDF) of the displacement response is proposed by adapting the PDF of the normal distribution. Finally, coefficients of the proposed PDF are obtained by regression analysis of the statistical distribution of the time history responses. Finally the correlation between PDFs and statistical response distribution is presented.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.58 no.3
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• pp.396-407
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• 2020

As fossil fuels are depleted worldwide, alternative resources is required to replace fossil fuels, and biofuels are in the spotlight as alternative resources. Biofuels are produced from biomass, which is a renewable resource to produce biofuels or bio-chemicals. Especially, in order to substitute fossil fuels, the research focusing the biofuel (biodiesel) production based on CO₂ and biomass achieves more attention recently. To produce biomass-based biodiesel, the development of a supply chain network is required considering the amounts of feedstocks (ex, CO₂ and water) required producing biodiesel, potential locations and capacities of bio-refineries, and transportations of biodiesel produced at biorefineries to demand cities. Although many studies of the biomass-based biodiesel supply chain network are performed, there are few types of research handled the uncertainty in CO₂ supply which influences the optimal strategies of microalgae-based biodiesel production. Because CO₂, which is used in the production of microalgae-based biodiesel as one of important resources, is captured from the off-gases emitted in power plants, the uncertainty in CO₂ supply from power plants has big impacts on the optimal configuration of the biodiesel supply chain network. Therefore, in this study, to handle those issues, we develop the two-stage stochastic model to determine the optimal strategies of the biodiesel supply chain network considering the uncertainty in CO₂ supply. The goal of the proposed model is to minimize the expected total cost of the biodiesel supply chain network considering the uncertain CO₂ supply as well as satisfy diesel demands at each city. This model conducted a case study satisfying 10% diesel demand in the Republic of Korea. The overall cost of the stochastic model (US$ 12.9/gallon·y) is slightly higher (23%) than that of the deterministic model (US$ 10.5/gallon·y). Fluctuations in CO₂ supply (stochastic model) had a significant impact on the optimal strategies of the biodiesel supply network.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.27 no.10
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• pp.93-104
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• 2011

In this paper, a numerical procedure of probabilistic steady seepage analysis that considers the spatial variability of soil permeability is presented. The procedure extends the deterministic analysis based on the finite element method to a probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties and spatial variation of the soil permeability. Two-dimensional random fields are generated based on a Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve expansion in a fashion consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method and to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the seepage behavior of soil foundation beneath water retaining structure with a single sheet pile wall. The results showed that the probabilistic framework can be used to efficiently consider the various flow patterns caused by the spatial variability of the soil permeability in seepage assessment for a soil foundation beneath water retaining structures.