• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률밀도함수의 추정

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Level of Service of Signalized Intersections Considering both Delay and Accidents (지체와 사고를 고려한 신호교차로 서비스수준 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Je-Jin;Park, Seong-Yong;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2008
  • Level of Service (LOS) is one of ways to evaluate operational conditions. It is very important factor in evaluation especially for the facility of highways. However, some studies proved that ${\upsilon}/c$ ratio and accident rate is appeared like a second function which has a U-form. It means there is a gap between LOS and safety of highway facilities. Therefore, this study presents a method for evaluation of a signalized intersection which is considered both smooth traffic operation (delay) and traffic safety (accident). Firstly, as a result of our research, accident rates and EPDO are decreased when it has a big delay. In that reason, it is necessary to make a new Level of Service included traffic safety. Secondly, this study has developed a negative binominal regression model which is based on the relation between accident patterns and stream. Thirdly, standards of LOS are presented which is originated from calculation between annual delay costs and annual accident cost at each intersection. Lastly, worksheet form is presented as an expression to an estimation step of a signalized intersection with traffic accident prediction model and new LOS.

Assessment of Estimated Daily Intakes of Artificial Sweeteners from Non-alcoholic Beverages in Children and Adolescents (어린이와 청소년의 비알콜성음료 섭취에 따른 인공감미료 섭취량 평가)

  • Kim, Sung-Dan;Moon, Hyun-Kyung;Lee, Jib-Ho;Chang, Min-Su;Shin, Young;Jung, Sun-Ok;Yun, Eun-Sun;Jo, Han-Bin;Kim, Jung-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.43 no.8
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    • pp.1304-1316
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    • 2014
  • The aims of this study were to estimate daily intakes of artificial sweeteners from beverages and liquid teas as well as evaluate their potential health risks in Korean children and adolescents (1 to 19 years old). Dietary intake assessment was conducted using actual levels of aspartame, acesulfame-K, and sucralose in non-alcoholic beverages (651 beverages and 87 liquid teas), and food consumption amounts were drawn from "The Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007~2009)". To estimate dietary intake of non-alcoholic beverages, a total of 6,082 children and adolescents (Scenario I) were compared to 1,704 non-alcoholic beverage consumption subjects (Scenario II). The estimated daily intake of artificial sweeteners was calculated based on point estimates and probabilistic estimates. The values of probabilistic artificial sweeteners intakes were presented by a Monte Carlo approach considering probabilistic density functions of variables. The level of safety for artificial sweeteners was evaluated by comparisons with acceptable daily intakes (ADI) of aspartame (0~40 mg/kg bw/day), acesulfame-K (0~15 mg/kg bw/day), and sucralose (0~15 mg/kg bw/day) set by the World Health Organization. For total children and adolescents (Scenario I), mean daily intakes of aspartame, acesulfame-K, and sucralose estimated by probabilistic estimates using Monte Carlo simulation were 0.09, 0.01, and 0.04 mg/kg bw/day, respectively, and 95th percentile daily intakes were 0.30, 0.02, and 0.13 mg/kg bw/day, respectively. For consumers-only (Scenario II), mean daily intakes of aspartame, acesulfame-K, and sucralose estimated by probabilistic estimates using Monte Carlo simulation were 0.52, 0.03, and 0.22 mg/kg bw/day, respectively, and 95th percentile daily intakes were 1.80, 0.12, and 0.75 mg/kg bw/day, respectively. For scenarios I and II, neither aspartame, acesulfame-K, nor sucralose had a mean and 95th percentile intake that exceeded 5.06% of ADI.

Low flow projection considering actual evapotranspiration by climate change (기후변화에 따른 실제증발산을 고려한 갈수량 전망)

  • Kim, Eunji;Kang, Boosik;Sun, Hoyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.384-384
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    • 2020
  • 갈수량은 연간 355번째에 해당하는 일유량으로 연중 10일은 유지할 수 있는 유량을 의미한다. 갈수량은 하천유지유량을 결정하고 다목적댐의 이수안전도를 평가하는 기준으로 활용되는 지표로 활용되고 있으나 현재 기준으로는 과거사상에 초점을 맞추어 산정되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 수문사상의 변화로 인한 미래 극한사상에 대비한 평가기준 마련을 위하여 CMIP5의 GCM 자료를 활용한 한강수계의 소양강댐의 실제증발산량을 추정하고, 이를 고려한 갈수량을 전망하고자 한다. 실제증발산의 경우 관측자료가 부재하므로 증발산 보완관계 가설 기반의 간접계산을 통해 추정하였으며, 잠재증발산량은 FAO Penman-Monteith 공식, 습윤증발산량은 Priestley-Taylor공식을 활용하여 산정하였다. 기준기간(1974-2000년) GCM 자료의 보정은 강우 및 증발산에 대하여 정상성 분위사상법을 적용하였으며, 우리나라의 홍수기 특성을 반영하기 위하여 홍수기(6~9월) 및 비홍수기(10~5월)로 구분하였다. 소양강댐 유역에 대한 연단위 원시 GCM의 경우, 연단위 강우와 실제증발산 각각 -20.0%, +17.3%의 오차율을 보였으나, 지역오차보정 후 각각 -1.2%, -0.2%로 개선되었다. 전망기간(2011-2100년)에 대해서는 비정상성 분위사상법을 적용하였으며, 지역오차보정 과정을 거친 강우 및 실제증발산 자료는 장기유출모형의 입력자료로 활용되었다. 실제증발산을 고려한 유출량을 산정하기 위해 IHACRES 모형을 활용하였으며, 갈수량은 모형으로부터 산정된 유출 시계열에 대한 lognormal 분포의 누적확률밀도함수의 3%에 해당하는 값으로 결정하였다. 전망결과는 근미래(Near future, 2011~2040년), 중미래(Midcentury future, 2041~2070년), 먼미래(Distance future, 2071~2100년)로 나누어 제시하였으며, 미래구간별 추세를 반영한 증감율을 제시하였다.

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Evaluation of Flood Events Considering Correlation between Flood Event Attributes (홍수사상 요소의 상관성을 고려한 홍수사상의 평가)

  • Lee, Jeong Ho;Yoo, Ji Young;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3B
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2010
  • A flood event can be characterized by three attributes such as peak discharge, total flood volume, and flood duration, which are correlated each other. However, the amount of peak discharge is only used to evaluate the flood events for the hydrological plan and design. The univariate analysis has a limitation in describing the complex probability behavior of flood events. Thus, the univariate analysis cannot derive satisfying results in flood frequency analysis. This study proposed bivariate flood frequency analysis methods for evaluating flood events considering correlations among attributes of flood events. Parametric distributions such as Gumbel mixed model and bivariate gamma distribution, and a non-parametric model using a bivariate kernel function were introduced in this study. A time series of annual flood events were extracted from observations of inflow to the Soyang River Dam and the Daechung Dam, respectively. The joint probability distributions and return periods were derived from the relationship between the amount of peak discharge and the total volume of flood runoff. Applicabilities of bivariate flood frequency analysis were examined by comparing the return period acquired from the proposed bivariate analyses and the conventional univariate analysis.

Detection and Assessment of Forest Cover Change in Gangwon Province, Inter-Korean, Based on Gaussian Probability Density Function (가우시안 확률밀도 함수기반 강원도 남·북한 지역의 산림면적 변화탐지 및 평가)

  • Lee, Sujong;Park, Eunbeen;Song, Cholho;Lim, Chul-Hee;Cha, Sungeun;Lee, Sle-gee;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.5_1
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    • pp.649-663
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    • 2019
  • The 2018 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report announced that deforestation in North Korea is the most extreme situation and in terms of climate change, this deforestation is a global scale issue. To respond deforestation, various study and projects are conducted based on remote sensing, but access to public data in North Korea is limited, and objectivity is difficult to be guaranteed. In this study, the forest detection based on density estimation in statistic using Landsat imagery was conducted in Gangwon province which is the only administrative district divided into South and North. The forest spatial data of South Korea was used as data for the labeling of forest and Non-forest in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and a threshold (0.6658) for forest detection was set by Gaussian Probability Density Function (PDF) estimation by category. The results show that the forest area decreased until the 2000s in both Korea, but the area increased in 2010s. It is also confirmed that the reduction of forest area on the local scale is the same as the policy direction of urbanization and industrialization at that time. The Kappa value for validation was strong agreement (0.8) and moderate agreement (0.6), respectively. The detection based on the Gaussian PDF estimation is considered a method for complementing the statistical limitations of the existing detection method using satellite imagery. This study can be used as basic data for deforestation in North Korea and Based on the detection results, it is necessary to protect and restore forest resources.

Determination and Performance Evaluation of Codevectors Utilizing Phase Difference Distribution Characteristics of Circular Antenna Arrays (원형 안테나 배열의 위상 차이 분포 특성을 활용한 코드벡터 결정 방식 및 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Huiwon;Suh, Junyeub;Sung, Wonjin
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2016
  • Current mobile communication systems utilize the multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmission technique as an important means to enhance the bandwidth efficiency. Accurate beamforming via channel estimation contributes to the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) increase and the system performance improvement when MIMO transmission techniques are employed. Therefore, determination of beamforming vectors as well as the design of appropriate codebooks defining these codevectors play an important role in system operation. In this paper, we statistically analyze the phase difference between the channels corresponding to adjacent antenna elements in order to design an efficient codebook for uniform circular arrays (UCAs). We introduce new parameters which compensate for the additional phase difference observed in its probability density functions (PDFs). The performance of the proposed codebook is tested using the spatial channel model (SCM) to demonstrate its gain over the standard codebooks adopted in the long term evolution (LTE) Releases 8 and 10.

Determination of the Fracture Hydraulic Parameters for Three Dimensional Discrete Fracture Network Modeling (3차원 단열망모델링을 위한 단열수리인자 도출)

  • 김경수;김천수;배대석;김원영;최영섭;김중렬
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 1998
  • Since groundwater flow paths have one of the major roles to transport the radioactive nuclides from the radioactive waste repository to the biosphere, the discrete fracture network model is used for the rock block scale flow instead of the porous continuum model. This study aims to construct a three dimensional discrete fracture network to interpret the groundwater flow system in the study site. The modeling work includes the determination of the probabilistic distribution function from the fracture geometric and hydraulic parameters, three dimensional fracture modeling and model calibration. The results of the constant pressure tests performed in a fixed interval length at boreholes indicate that the flow dimension around boreholes shows mainly radial to spherical flow pattern. The fracture transmissivity value calculated by Cubic law is 6.12${\times}$10$\^$-7/ ㎡/sec with lognormal distribution. The conductive fracture intensity estimated by FracMan code is 1.73. Based on this intensity, the total number of conductive fractures are obtained as 3,080 in the rock block of 100 m${\times}$100 m${\times}$100 m.

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Quantization Performances and Iteration Number Statistics for Decoding Low Density Parity Check Codes (LDPC 부호의 복호를 위한 양자화 성능과 반복 횟수 통계)

  • Seo, Young-Dong;Kong, Min-Han;Song, Moon-Kyou
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2008
  • The performance and hardware complexity of LDPC decoders depend on the design parameters of quantization, the clipping threshold $c_{th}$ and the number of quantization bits q, and also on the maximum number of decoding iterations. In this paper, the BER performances of LDPC codes are evaluated according to the clipping threshold $c_{th}$ and the number of quantization bits q through the simulation studies. By comparing the quantized Min-Sum algorithm with the ideal Min-Sum algorithm, it is shown that the quantized case with $c_{th}=2.5$ and q=6 has the best performance, which approaches the idea case. The decoding complexities are calculated and the word error rates(WER) are estimated by using the pdf which is obtained through the statistical analyses on the iteration numbers. These results can be utilized to tradeoff between the decoding performance and the complexity in LDPC decoder design.

A Study on the Validation Test for Open Set Face Recognition Method with a Dummy Class (더미 클래스를 가지는 열린 집합 얼굴 인식 방법의 유효성 검증에 대한 연구)

  • Ahn, Jung-Ho;Choi, KwonTaeg
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.525-534
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    • 2017
  • The open set recognition method should be used for the cases that the classes of test data are not known completely in the training phase. So it is required to include two processes of classification and the validation test. This kind of research is very necessary for commercialization of face recognition modules, but few domestic researches results about it have been published. In this paper, we propose an open set face recognition method that includes two sequential validation phases. In the first phase, with dummy classes we perform classification based on sparse representation. Here, when the test data is classified into a dummy class, we conclude that the data is invalid. If the data is classified into one of the regular training classes, for second validation test we extract four features and apply them for the proposed decision function. In experiments, we proposed a simulation method for open set recognition and showed that the proposed validation test outperform SCI of the well-known validation method

Parameterization of the Temperature-Dependent Development of Panonychus citri (McGregor) (Acari: Tetranychidae) and a Matrix Model for Population Projection (귤응애 온도발육 매개변수 추정 및 개체군 추정 행렬모형)

  • Yang, Jin-Young;Choi, Kyung-San;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.235-245
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    • 2011
  • Temperature-related parameters of Panonychus citri (McGregor) (Acarina: Tetranychidae) development were estimated and a stage-structured matrix model was developed. The lower threshold temperatures were estimated as $8.4^{\circ}C$ for eggs, $9.9^{\circ}C$ for larvae, $9.2^{\circ}C$ for protonymphs, and $10.9^{\circ}C$ for deutonymphs. Thermal constants were 113.6, 29.1, 29.8, and 33.4 degree days for eggs, larvae, protonymphs, and deutonymphs, respectively. Non-linear development models were established for each stage of P. citri. In addition, temperature-dependent total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate models were developed for the construction of an oviposition model. P. citri age was categorized into five stages to construct a matrix model: eggs, larvae, protonymphs, deutonymphs and adults. For the elements in the projection matrix, transition probabilities from an age class to the next age class or the probabilities of remaining in an age class were obtained from development rate function of each stage (age classes). Also, the fecundity coefficients of adult population were expressed as the products of adult longevity completion rate (1/longevity) by temperature-dependent total fecundity. To evaluate the predictability of the matrix model, model outputs were compared with actual field data in a cool early season and hot mid to late season in 2004. The model outputs closely matched the actual field patterns within 30 d after the model was run in both the early and mid to late seasons. Therefore, the developed matrix model can be used to estimate the population density of P. citri for a period of 30 d in citrus orchards.