• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률모형

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Development of Computer Code for Simulation of Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamics -Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis- (다성분 에어로졸계의 동특성 묘사를 위한 전산 코드의 개발 -불확실성 및 민감도 해석-)

  • Na, Jang-Hwan;Lee, Byong-Whi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 1987
  • To analyze the aerosol dynamics in severe accidents of LMFBR, a new computer code entitled MCAD (Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamics) has been developed. The code can treat two component aerosol system using relative collision probability of each particles as sequences of accident scenarios. Coagulation and removal mechanisms incorporating Brownian diffusion and gravitational sedimentation are included in this model. In order to see the effect of particle geometry, the code makes use of the concept of density correction factor and shape factors. The code is verified using the experimental result of NSPP-300 series and compared to other code. At present, it fits the result of experiment well and agrees to the existing code. The input variables included are very uncertain. Hence, it requires uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as a supplement to code development. In this analysis, 14 variables are selected to analyze. The input variables are compounded by experimental design method and Latin hypercube sampling. Their results are applied to Response surface method to see the degree of regression. The stepwise regression method gives an insight to which variables are significant as time elapse and their reasonable ranges. Using Monte Carlo Method to the regression model of LHS, the confidence level of the results of MCAD and their variables is improved.

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Random heterogeneous model with bimodal velocity distribution for Methane Hydrate exploration (바이모달 분포형태 랜덤 불균질 매질에 의한 메탄하이드레이트층 모델화)

  • Kamei Rie;Hato Masami;Matsuoka Toshifumi
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2005
  • We have developed a random heterogeneous velocity model with bimodal distribution in methane hydrate-bearing Bones. The P-wave well-log data have a von Karman type autocorrelation function and non-Gaussian distribution. The velocity histogram has two peaks separated by several hundred metres per second. A random heterogeneous medium with bimodal distribution is generated by mapping of a medium with a Gaussian probability distribution, yielded by the normal spectral-based generation method. By using an ellipsoidal autocorrelation function, the random medium also incorporates anisotropy of autocorrelation lengths. A simulated P-wave velocity log reproduces well the features of the field data. This model is applied to two simulations of elastic wane propagation. Synthetic reflection sections with source signals in two different frequency bands imply that the velocity fluctuation of the random model with bimodal distribution causes the frequency dependence of the Bottom Simulating Reflector (BSR) by affecting wave field scattering. A synthetic cross-well section suggests that the strong attenuation observed in field data might be caused by the extrinsic attenuation in scattering. We conclude that random heterogeneity with bimodal distribution is a key issue in modelling hydrate-bearing Bones, and that it can explain the frequency dependence and scattering observed in seismic sections in such areas.

Improvement of precipitation forecasting skill of ECMWF data using multi-layer perceptron technique (다층퍼셉트론 기법을 이용한 ECMWF 예측자료의 강수예측 정확도 향상)

  • Lee, Seungsoo;Kim, Gayoung;Yoon, Soonjo;An, Hyunuk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.475-482
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    • 2019
  • Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction information which have 2 weeks to 2 months lead time are expected to be used through many parts of industry fields, but utilizability is not reached to expectation because of lower predictability than weather forecast and mid- /long-term forecast. In this study, we used multi-layer perceptron (MLP) which is one of machine learning technique that was built for regression training in order to improve predictability of S2S precipitation data at South Korea through post-processing. Hindcast information of ECMWF was used for MLP training and the original data were compared with trained outputs based on dichotomous forecast technique. As a result, Bias score, accuracy, and Critical Success Index (CSI) of trained output were improved on average by 59.7%, 124.3% and 88.5%, respectively. Probability of detection (POD) score was decreased on average by 9.5% and the reason was analyzed that ECMWF's model excessively predicted precipitation days. In this study, we confirmed that predictability of ECMWF's S2S information can be improved by post-processing using MLP even the predictability of original data was low. The results of this study can be used to increase the capability of S2S information in water resource and agricultural fields.

Flow-Induced Noise Prediction for Submarines (잠수함 형상의 유동소음 해석기법 연구)

  • Yeo, Sang-Jae;Hong, Suk-Yoon;Song, Jee-Hun;Kwon, Hyun-Wung;Seol, Hanshin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.930-938
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    • 2018
  • Underwater noise radiated from submarines is directly related to the probability of being detected by the sonar of an enemy vessel. Therefore, minimizing the noise of a submarine is essential for improving survival outcomes. For modern submarines, as the speed and size of a submarine increase and noise reduction technology is developed, interest in flow noise around the hull has been increasing. In this study, a noise analysis technique was developed to predict flow noise generated around a submarine shape considering the free surface effect. When a submarine is operated near a free surface, turbulence-induced noise due to the turbulence of the flow and bubble noise from breaking waves arise. First, to analyze the flow around a submarine, VOF-based incompressible two-phase flow analysis was performed to derive flow field data and the shape of the free surface around the submarine. Turbulence-induced noise was analyzed by applying permeable FW-H, which is an acoustic analogy technique. Bubble noise was derived through a noise model for breaking waves based on the turbulent kinetic energy distribution results obtained from the CFD results. The analysis method developed was verified by comparison with experimental results for a submarine model measured in a Large Cavitation Tunnel (LCT).

A Study on experiential consumption and development of the customized cosmetics on female university students in their 20s -Preliminary Study- (20대 여대생의 맞춤형화장품 체험소비 및 발전방향 연구)

  • Lee, Ha-yeon;Ju, Hyun-young;Kim, Gyu-ri
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.595-606
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    • 2020
  • To find out the a Study on experiential consumption and development of the customized cosmetics on female university students in their 20s, this study conducted sampling using probability sampling from cosmetics major students in S City from September 1 to October 30, 2020. In this study, a study model was designed for a total of 30 people and studied as an Experience-Consume Experimentation. First, the result of the pre-purchase survey revealed that skincare cosmetics had the highest percentage for being selected by 30 people for "the preferred cosmetic type per the perception regarding customized cosmetics." Second, the result of the pre-purchase survey revealed that 11 people answered skincare cosmetics, 1 person answered shade cosmetics, and 2 people answered fragrance products (perfume, diffusers, etc.) for "the experience type for customized cosmetics." Third, the result of the post-purchase survey revealed that 29 people are willing to recommend the products, while 1 person is not. For the appropriateness of the price, 23 people answered yes; 7 people answered no. for the characteristics of the experience, 24 people (80%) answered that they selected ingredients according to their skin type; 9 people answered that the price is cheap considering they received 1:1 consultation; 18 people answered that they made a choice per their preferences (skin type) rather than per brands; 3 people answered that their self-esteem is stronger as if they received personal care. Therefore, customized cosmetics are expected to increase the attractiveness and purchase rate of female students in their twenties given that 'Human Touch,' genetic analysis, and 'hyper-customization technology,' which requires new development of customized cosmetics experience consumption for female college students in their 20s.

Analyzing The Economic Impact of The Fire Risk Reduction at Regional Level in Goyang City (지역단위 화재 위험도 저감의 고양시 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Son, Minsu;Cho, Dongin;Park, Chang Keun;Ko, Hyun A;Jung, Seunghyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.685-693
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    • 2021
  • This study examined the fire risk of the region in Goyang City using the spatial information data of buildings. The economic damage by industry was assessed according to the probability of fire risk. The study area was confined to Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do, and the same fire risk reduction rate was applied to each region for the convenience of analysis. The possibility of fire was derived based on the buildings' density and usage in the area by National GIS building-integrated information standard data. The calculation of economic damage by industry in Goyang City due to the fire risk was calculated by combining the Goyang-si industry-related model produced by matching with 30 industrial categories in Input-Output Statistics of Korea Bank and 20 industrial categories in the Goyang-si business survey and the possibility of fire. The basic scenario of production impossibility during six months and business loss due to fire was established and analyzed based on the supply model. The analysis showed that Ilsan-dong-gu, Ilsan-seo-gu, and Deokyang-gu suffered the most economic damage. The "electricity, gas, steam, and water business" showed the greatest loss by industry.

Competitiveness and Export Performance in Korean Manufacturing Enterprises : Focusing on the Comparison of Conglomerates and SMEs (국내 제조기업의 경쟁력과 수출: 대기업과 중소기업의 비교를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Dong-Joo
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2018
  • This study estimates the technical efficiency and total factor productivity(TFP) of and analyzes the relationship between TFP and exports for Korean manufacturing companies from 2000 to 2016. Specially, TFP is decomposed into Technical Change(TC), Technical Efficiency Change (TEC), and Sale Effect(SE), and compared between large and small enterprises. First, in the case of technical efficiency, the Korean economy has been very vulnerable to external shocks, such as the sharp decline following the 2008 financial crisis. The efficiency of the electronics, automobile, and machinery sectors is low and needs to be improved. In addition, the technological efficiency of large enterprises is higher than that of SMEs in most manufacturing sub-sectors except for non-ferrous metals. In the case of TFP, most changes are due to TC, and the effective combination of labor, capital and the effect of scale have little effect, suggesting that improvement of internal structure is urgent. In addition, volatility due to the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 was much larger in SMEs than in large companies, so external economic impacts are more greater for SMEs than large enterprises. The relationship between TFP decomposition factors and exports shows that TC has a positive effect only on exports of SMEs. Therefore, in order to increase exports, in the case of SMEs, R&D support to promote technological development is needed. In the case of large companies, it is necessary to establish differentiated strategies for each export market, competitor company, and item to link efficiency and scale effect of exports.

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Development of Elementary Maker Education Program using WeDo Robot (WeDo 로봇 활용 초등 메이커 교육 프로그램 개발)

  • Kweon, Soonhwan;Park, Jungho
    • 한국정보교육학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2021.08a
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    • pp.335-340
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    • 2021
  • This study conducted research on creating an environment for maker education programs for robot and SW education, development and application of maker education programs for low-grade elementary school students in farming and fishing villages. Based on the preceding maker education model, the OMCSI model was developed for the lower grade level of elementary school, and based on this, five WeDo-utilized elementary maker education programs were developed. From April 1, 2020 to October 30, 2020, the results of applying the elementary school maker education program using WeDo Robot 2.0 to 10 second graders of 10 Elementary School in Gyeongsangnam-do are as follows. The average increased by 3.40 points (t=-2.378, p=0.034) and the average increased by 3.30 points (t=-2.329, p=0.040). The average was also increased by 3.40 points (t=-2.458, p=0.038). Finally, it rose to 3.70 points (t=-2.449, p=0.037) for its reasoning ability. That is, all four sub-elements of computing thinking had a significant probability of 0.04, indicating statistical significant differences between scores of pre-post computing thinking. Therefore, the Elementary Maker Education Program using WeDo robots has worked very effectively to improve students' computing thinking skills.

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The Structural Relationship between the Type of Teaching Behaviors Perceived by College Students' Participating in Liberal Dance Classes, Lecture concentration and Continuous Participation Intention (교양댄스수업 참가자가 인식하는 교수행동과 수업몰입 및 지속적 참여의도의 구조관계)

  • Jung, Moon-Mi;Won, Young-shin;Lee, Min-Kyu
    • 한국체육학회지인문사회과학편
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.593-604
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of teaching behaviors perceived by college students' participating in liberal dance classes on learning motivation and continuous participation intention. The main target audience of this research is college students who participate in liberal dance classes in five universities in Seoul and Gyeonggi. By using purposive sampling among non probability sampling, totally 330 papers had been distributed, and 314 questionnaires had been used for practical analysis. The data process was performed by frequency analysis, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, reliability analysis, structural equation modeling. The results were as follows: First, teaching behaviors perceived by college students' participating in liberal dance classes had a significant effect on learning motivation. Secondly, teaching behaviors perceived by college students' participating in liberal dance classes had a significant effect on continuous participation intention. Lastly, learning motivation perceived by college students' participating in liberal dance classes had a significant effect on continuous participation Intention. Lastly, there was the mediating effect of learning motivation was inspected in the relationship between teaching behaviors perceived by college students' participating in liberal dance classes and continuous participation intention.

A Study on Application Standard of At-grade Intersection Considering Both Delay and Accident (지체와 사고를 고려한 평면교차로 적용기준에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Je Jin;Jung, Hyung Mo;Ha, Tae Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.3D
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    • pp.295-306
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    • 2008
  • The Intersection is inner traffic facilities and the space where the roads are intersected and connected. And also, the Intersection is the decision-making section for drivers to select the route according to the geometric structure and operation method. However decision-making section cause to raise car accidents rate because it imposes a heavy burden on drivers. In that reason, many countries such as Europe use the Roundabouts to reduce the numbers of decision making and collision. In Korea, the kinds of method are just introduced and it is using now but there are no exact standards. Hence, this study suggests the process to evaluate and determine the types of Intersection which are based on the traffic flow (congestion) and traffic safety (accidents). Firstly, this study presents the number of accident at each Intersection which is depended on the traffic volume. Secondly, this study calculates and analysis the accident at signalized Intersection, non-signalized Intersection and Roundabout by TSIS-NETSIM program. Thirdly, this study concludes the best suitable Intersection type through the materials which are mentioned before.