• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.379-386
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• 2018

Purpose: This study was to the fragility evaluation of I-shape curved beam structure subjected to strong ground motions including Gyeongju and Pohang earthquakes Method: In particular, to conduct the analytical model, ABAQUS and ANSYS platform was used in this study. Furthermore, the analytical model using 3D Finite Element Model (FEM) was validated, in comparison to the theoretical solutions at the location of 025L, 05L, and 0.75L in static loading condition. In addition, in order to evaluate the seismic fragility of the curved beam structure, 20 seismic ground motions were selected and Monte-Carlo Simulation was used for the empirical fragility evaluation from 0.2g to 1.5g. Result: It was interesting to find that the probability of the system failure was found at 0.2g, as using 190 MPa limit state and the probability of the failure using 390 MPa limit state was starting from 0.6g. Conclusion: This study showed the comparison of the theoretical solution with analytical solution on I-shaped curved beam structures and it was interesting to note that the system subjected to strong ground motions was sensitive to high frequency earthquake. Further, the seismic fragility corresponding to the curved beam shapes must be evaluated.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.127-136
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• 2011

In this study, annual maximum storm events are proposed to determined by the return periods considering total rainfall and rainfall intensity together. The rainfall series at Seoul since 1961 are examined and the results are as follows. First, the bivariate exponential distribution is used to determine annual maximum storm events. The parameter estimated annually provides more suitable results than the parameter estimated by whole periods. The chosen annual maximum storm events show these properties. The events with the biggest total rainfall tend to be selected in the wet years and the events with the biggest rainfall intensity in the wet years. These results satisfy the concept of critical storm events which produces the most severe runoff according to soil wetness. The average characteristics of the annual maximum storm events said average rainfall intensity 32.7 mm/hr in 1 hr storm duration(total rainfall 32.7 mm), average rainfall intensity 9.7 mm/hr in 24 hr storm duration(total rainfall 231.6 mm) and average rainfall intensity 7.4 mm/hr in 48 hr storm duration(total rainfall 355.0 mm).

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.547-547
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 달천구간 (괴산댐~송동보)에서 어류 군집 (Fish Community)을 고려한 생태학적 최적유량 (Ecological Optimum Discharge)을 산정하였다. 이를 위해 유량증진방법론(IFIM: Instream Flow Incremental Methodology)을 기반으로 한 2차원 모형인 River-2D를 적용하여 수리해석 및 대상어종 (Target Fishes)에 대한 가중가용면적 (WUA: Weighted Usable Area)을 산정하였다. 모형 검증을 위해 김원 등 (2007)에 의해 수행된 과업구간 내 수위 및 유량 모니터링 자료를 활용하였으며, 하류경계조건은 김지성 등 (2007)에 의한 수위-유량 관계곡선식을 활용하였다. 또한 평저류량 조건에서의 조도높이 (Roughness Height) 산정을 위해 유량 및 하상재료의 영향을 고려할 수 있는 멱함수 및 반대수함수 형태의 조도계수 공식을 적용하였다. 모형검증 결과 River-2D에 의해 계산된 수위값이 모니터링값과 비교적 잘 일치함을 알 수 있었다. 대상유역에 대한 어류 모니터링 (에코리버21사업단, 2007~2010) 결과를 바탕으로, 과업지역내 우점종 (피라미), 아우점종 (쉬리 등 3개 어종), 멸종위기어종 (묵납자루)을 대상어종으로 선정하였으며, 대상어종에 대한 서식도적합도지수 (HSI, Habitat Suitability Index) 산정을 위해 IFASG (Instream Flow and Aquatic Systems Group) 방법 및 WDWF (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) 방법을 적용하였다. 수심, 유속, 하상재료 및 하상형상에 대한 서식도적합도지수가 5가지 대상어종에 대해 각각 산정되었으며, 복합적합도지수 (CSI : Combined Suitability Index)를 고려한 과업대상 위치별 어류의 발생확률이 모의되었다. 어류 군집에 대한 가중가용면적 (WUA)이 최대로 되는 생태학적 최적유량 산정 결과, Type I~III의 경우 모두 $10m^3/s$ 이하의 유량조건에 대해서 WUA가 최대값을 갖는 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, 납자루속의 어류 (Type III)의 WUA가 000 및 000속 (Type II)의 어류에 비해서 작은 유량에서 더 큰 값을 갖으며, $10m^3/$s 초과 유량에 대해서는 반대의 경향이 나타나는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.448-452
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• 2011

기존의 하천개수사업 치수경제성분석에서는 홍수피해경감편익 산정시 계획홍수위 이하의 홍수에 대해서 제방이 완벽히 방어한다는 가정 하에 제방으로 인한 피해경감액을 편익으로 산정하고 있다. 그러나 전통적 빈도해석 방법 및 수리수문 모형에 내재된 매개변수 불확실성으로 인하여 특정 하천구간에서 산정된 계획빈도 이하의 홍수위가 제방고에 해당하는 임계사상을 초과할 수도, 반대로 계획빈도 이상의 홍수위가 임계사상을 초과하지 않을 가능성도 있다. 이러한 불확실성은 수공구조물의 붕괴에 대한 잠재성을 가진 중요한 요인으로도 작용한다. 본 연구는 이러한 잠재적 위험도를 제방 월류위험도로 정의하고 이를 Bayesian MCMC에 의해 산정하는 방법을 제시하였다. 제시된 방법론은 4대강살리기사업 전 후에 대해 적용하였으며, 계획홍수위 저하에 따른 잠재적 홍수위험 감소 효과를 정량적으로 나타낼 수 있었다. 월류 위험도는 빈도별 홍수피해액의 피해발생 확률로서도 적용될 수 있으며, 이는 물리적 침수구역 설정의 어려움에 따른 홍수피해액 과다산정 문제 해결의 대안으로서도 의미가 있다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.137-146
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• 2006

This is the second of a two-part paper which describes comparison of reliability design methods by application to Donghae Harbor Breakwaters. In this paper, Part 2, we deal with sliding of caissons. The failure modes of a vertical breakwater, which consists of a caisson mounted on a rubble mound, include the sliding and overturning of the caisson and the failure of the rubble mound or subsoil, among which most frequently occurs the sliding of the caisson. The traditional deterministic design method for sliding failure of a caisson uses the concept of a safety factor that the resistance should be greater than the load by a certain factor (e.g. 1.2). However, the safety of a structure cannot be quantitatively evaluated by the concept of a safety factor. On the other hand, the reliability design method, for which active research is being performed recently, enables one to quantitatively evaluate the safety of a structure by calculating the probability of failure of the structure. The reliability design method is classified into three categories depending on the level of probabilistic concepts being employed, i.e., Level 1, 2, and 3. In this study, we apply the reliability design methods to the sliding of the caisson of the breakwaters of Donghae Harbor, which was constructed by traditional deterministic design methods to be damaged in 1987. Analyses are made for the breakwaters before the damage and after reinforcement. The probability of failure before the damage is much higher than the allowable value, indicating that the breakwater was under-designed. The probability of failure after reinforcement, however, is close to the allowable value, indicating that the breakwater is no longer in danger. On the other hand, the results of the different reliability design methods are in fairly good agreement, confirming that there is not much difference among different methods.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.142-151
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• 2004

A method for the determination of concrete armor unit weights with hydraulic stability and structural stability may be formulated in this paper. The hydraulic stability is analyzed by using Hudson's formula, the structural stability is also studied by evaluation of maximum flexural tensile stresses in armor unit induced by the impact loads and by comparison of those with the tensile resistance strength directly. The applicable criteria for concrete armor units can be represented as a function of design wave heights with return period, armor weights, and tensile strengths for the practical uses. In addition, reliability analyses for two failure modes are carried out to take into account some uncertainties. Finally, a series system for two-failure mode analysis can be made up straightforwardly, by which the optimal weights of armor units can be estimated with the various relative breakages, given the specific target probability of failure under the concepts of reliability-based design method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.67-79
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• 2002

In this paper, observed trajectories of a vehicle platoon are viewed as one realization of a finite sequence of random trajectories. In this point of view, we develop novel and mathematically rigorous concept of traffic flow variables such as local traffic density, instantaneous traffic flow, and velocity field and investigate their nature on a general probability space of a sequence of random trajectories which represent vehicle trajectories. We present a simple model of random trajectories as an illustrative example and, derive the values of traffic flow variables based on the new definitions in this model. In particular, we construct the model for the sequence of random vehicle trajectories with a system of stochastic differential equations. Each equation of the system nay represent microscopic random maneuvering behavior of each vehicle with properly designed drift coefficient functions and diffusion coefficient functions. The system of stochastic differential equations nay generate a well-defined probability space of a sequence of random vehicle trajectories. We derive the partial differential equation for the expected cumulative plot with appropriate initial conditions. By solving the equation with numerical methods, we obtain the values of expected cumulative plot, local traffic density, and instantaneous traffic flow. In addition, we derive the partial differential equation for the expected travel time to a certain location with appropriate initial and/or boundary conditions, which is solvable numerically. We apply this model to a case of single vehicle trajectory.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.60-67
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• 2013

A diffusion coefficient is an important parameter in the prediction of atmospheric dispersion using a Gaussian plume model, and its modelling approach varies. In this study, dispersion coefficients recommended by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (U. S. NRC's) regulatory guide and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's (CNSC's) regulatory guide, and used in probabilistic accident consequence analysis codes MACCS and MACCS2 have been investigated. Based on the atmospheric dispersion model for a hypothetical accidental release recommended by the U. S. NRC, its influence to atmospheric dispersion factor was discussed. It was found that diffusion coefficients are basically predicted from a Pasquill- Gifford curve, but various curve fitting equations are recommended or used. A lateral dispersion coefficient is corrected with consideration for the additional spread due to plume meandering in all models, however its modelling approach showed a distinctive difference. Moreover, a vertical dispersion coefficient is corrected with consideration for the additional plume spread due to surface roughness in all models, except for the U. S. NRC's recommendation. For a specified surface roughness, the atmospheric dispersion factors showed differences up to approximately 4 times depending on the modelling approach of a dispersion coefficient. For the same model, the atmospheric dispersion factors showed differences by 2 to 3 times depending on surface roughness.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.3 no.1 s.5
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• pp.115-121
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• 1995

Recently, spatial integration for mineral exploration is regarded as an important task of various geological applications of GIS. Therefore, theoretical bases of data representation and reasoning concerned with Dempster-Shafer theory and Fuzzy theory were systematically as the data-driven integration methodologies for raster-based geoinformation; they are distinguished from target-driven methodology based on statistical background. According to previous actual applications of these methods to mineral exploration, they have been proven to provide useful information related to hidden target mineral deposits, and it is thought that some suggestions in this study are helpful to further real applications including representation, reasoning, and interpretation stages in order to obtain a decision-supporting layer.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.188-201
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• 2005

This is the first part of a two-part paper which describes comparison of reliability design methods by application to Donghae Harbor Breakwaters. This paper, Part 1, is restricted to stability of armor blocks, while Part 2 deals with sliding of caissons. Reliability design methods have been developed fur breakwater designs since the mid-1980s. The reliability design method is classified into three categories depending on the level of probabilistic concepts being employed. In the Level 1 method, partial safety factors are used, which are predetermined depending on the allowable probability of failure. In the Level 2 method, the probability of failure is evaluated with the reliability index, which is calculated using the means and standard deviations of the load and resistance. The load and resistance are assumed to distribute normally. In the Level 3 method, the cumulative quantity of failure (e.g. cumulative damage of armor blocks) during the lifetime of the breakwater is calculated without assumptions of normal distribution of load and resistance. Each method calculates different design parameters, but they can be expressed in terms of probability of failure so that tile difference can be compared among the different methods. In this study, we applied the reliability design methods to the stability of armor blocks of the breakwaters of Donghae Harbor, which was constructed by traditional deterministic design methods to be damaged in 1987. Analyses are made for the breakwaters before the damage and after reinforcement. The probability of failure before the damage is much higher than the target probability of failure while that for the reinforced breakwater is much lower than the target value, indicating that the breakwaters before damage and after reinforcement were under- and over-designed, respectively. On the other hand, the results of the different reliability design methods were in fairly good agreement, confirming that there is not much difference among different methods.