• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 안전평가

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Probabilistic Structural Safety Assessment Considering the Initial Shape and Non-linearity of Steel Cable-Stayed Bridges (강사장교의 초기형상과 비선형성을 고려한 확률론적 구조안전성 평가)

  • Bang, Myung-Seok;Han, Sung-Ho;Lee, Woo-Sang;Lee, Chin-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the advanced numerical algorithm is developed which can performed the static and dynamic stochastic finite element analysis by considering the effect of uncertainties included in the member stiffness of steel cable-stayed bridges and seismic load. After conducting the linear and nonlinear initial shape analysis, the advanced numerical algorithm is the assessment tool which can performed structural the response analysis considering the static linearity and non-linearity of before or after induced intial tensile force, and examined the reliability assessment more efficiently. The verification of the developed numerical algorithm is evaluated by analyzing the regression analysis and coefficient of correlation using the direct monte carlo simulation. Also, the dynamic response characteristic and coefficient of variation of the steel cable-stayed bridge is calculated by considering the uncertainty of random variables using the developed numerical algorithm. In addition, the quantitative structural safety of the steel cable-stayed bridges is evaluated by conducting the reliability assessment based upon the dynamic stochastic finite element analysis result.

A Study on the Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis of Success Criteria of Large LOCA for APR+ (APR+ 확률론적 안전성평가 및 대형냉각재상실사고 성공기준과 파단크기 민감도 분석)

  • Moon, Horim;Kim, Han Gon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.129-134
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    • 2016
  • Standard design of APR+(advanced power reactor plus) was certified at 2014 by Korea regulatory body. Based on the experience gained from OPR1000 and APR1400, the APR1400 was being developed as a 1,500MWe class reactor using Korean technologies for design code, reactor coolant pump, and man-machine interface system. APR+ has been basically designed to have the seismic design basis of safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) 0.3g, a 4-train safety concept based on N+2 design philosophy, and a passive auxiliary feedwater system (PAFS). Also, safety issues on the Fukushima-type accidents have been extensively reviewed and applied to enhance APR+ safety. APR+ provides higher reliability and safety against tsunami and earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to implement probabilistic safety assessment considering these design features and to analyze sensitivity of core damage frequency for large loss of coolant accident of APR+.

Aspects of Preliminary Probabilistic Safety Assessment for a Research Reactor in the Conceptual Design Phase (연구용원자로 기본설계에 대한 예비 확률론적 안전성 평가)

  • Lee, Yoon-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.102-110
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    • 2019
  • This paper describes the work and results of the preliminary Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for a research reactor in the design phase. This preliminary PSA was undertaken to assess the level of safety for the design of a research reactor and to evaluate whether it is probabilistically safe to operate and reliable to use. The scope of the PSA described here is a Level 1 PSA which addresses the risks associated with core damage. After reviewing the documents and its conceptual design, eight typical initiating events are selected regarding internal events during the normal operation of the reactor. Simple fault tree models for the PSA are developed instead of the detailed model at this conceptual design stage. A total of 32 core damage accident sequences for an internal event analysis were identified and quantified using the AIMS-PSA. LOCA-I has a dominant contribution to the total CDF by a single initiating event. The CDF from the internal events of a research reactor is estimated to be 7.38E-07/year. The CDF for the representative initiating events is less than 1.0E-6/year even though conservative assumptions are used in reliability data. The conceptual design of the research reactor is designed to be sufficiently safe from the viewpoint of safety.

The Evaluation of Non-Destructive Formulas on Compressive Strength Using the Reliability Based on Probability (확률 기반의 신뢰도를 이용한 비파괴 압축강도 추정식 평가)

  • Park, Jin-Woo;Choo, Jin-Ho;Park, Gwang-Rim;Hwang, In-Baek;Shin, Yong-Suk
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2015
  • Proposed equation is used many time in calculation of concrete compressive strength using the non-destructive testing at precision safety diagnosis. Most of proposed equation is suggested in abroad and have an error to estimate concrete compressive strength in the domestic. Therefor, proposed equation is low reliability to estimate concrete compressive and it has a significant effect in reliability of precision safety diagnosis. Nevertheless, It is possible to increase the reliability through a number of experiments from this problem that occurs in some localized part. This paper is proposed assessment formula of reliability related core compressive strength to increase the reliability. It is verified that reliability of proposed assessment formula is useful by probabilistic techniques. It is compared with each graphs of concrete compressive strength of proposed equation. It has been found that the present methods are very efficient.

Analysis of the Effect of Soil Depth on Landslide Risk Assessment (산사태 조사를 통한 토층심도가 산사태 발생 위험성에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Man-Il;Kim, Namgyun;Kwak, Jaehwan;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.327-338
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to empirically and statistically predict soil depths across areas affected by landslides. Using soil depth measurements from a landslide area in Korea, two sets of soil depths are calculated using a Z-model based on terrain elevation and a probabilistic statistical model. Both sets of calculation results are applied to derive landslide risk using the saturated infiltration depth ratio of the soil layer. This facilitates analysis of the infiltration of rainfall into soil layers for a rainfall event. In comparison with the probabilistic statistical model, the Z-model yields soil depths that are closer to measured values in the study area. Landslide risk assessment in the study area based on soil depth predictions from the two models shows that the percentage of first-grade landslide risk assessed using soil depths from the probabilistic statistical model is 2.5 times that calculated using soil depths from the Z-model. This shows that soil depths directly affect landslide risk assessment; therefore, the acquisition and application of local soil depth data are crucial to landslide risk analysis.

Stability analysis of closely-spaced tunnel using RFEM (확률유한요소 해석에 의한 근접터널 안정성 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Gyun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.349-360
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, the modeling procedure of random field with an elasto-plastic finite element algorithm and probability of failure on closely-spaced tunnel were investigated. Local average subdivision (LAS) method which can generate discrete random variables fast and accurately as well as change the resolution in certain region was used. And correlated value allocating and weighted average method were suggested to implement geometrical characteristics of tunnel. After the probability of failure on the test problem was thoroughly investigated using random finite element method, the results were compared with the deterministic strength reduction factor method and single random variable method. Of particular importance in this work, is the conclusion that the probability of failure determined by simplified probabilistic analysis, in which spatial variability is ignored by assuming perfect correlation, can be estimated from the safety factor determined by strength reduction factor method. Also, single random variable method can lead to unconservative estimates of the probability of failure.

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Integration of Space Syntax Theory and Logit Model for Walkability Evaluation in Urban Pedestrian Networks (도시 보행네트워크의 보행성 평가를 위한 공간구문론과 Logit 모형의 통합방안)

  • Kim, Jong Hyung;Lee, Mee Young
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.62-70
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    • 2016
  • Ensuring walkability in a city where pedestrians and vehicles coexist is an issue of critical importance. The relative relationship between vehicle transit and walkability improvements complicates the evaluation of walkability, which thus necessitates the formation of a quantitative standard by which a methodological measurement of walkability can be achieved inside the pedestrian network. Therefore, a model is determined whereby quantitative indices such as, but not limited to, experiences of accessibility, mobility, and convenience within the network are estimated. This research proposes the integration of space syntax theory and the logit path choice model in the evaluation of walkability. Space syntax theory assesses adequacy of the constructed pedestrian network through calculation of the link integration value, while the logit model estimates its safety, mobility, and accessibility using probability. The advantage of the integrated model hence lies in its ability to sufficiently reflect such evaluation measures as the integration value, mobility convenience, accessibility potential, and safety experienced by the demand in a quantitative manner through probability computation. In this research, the Dial Algorithm is used to arrive at a solution to the logit model. This process requires that the physical distance of the pedestrian network and the perceptive distance of space syntax theory be made equivalent. In this, the research makes use of network expansion to reflect wait times. The evaluation index calculated through the integrated model is reviewed and using the results of this sample network, the applicability of the model is assessed.

Methodology for Evaluating Effectiveness of In-vehicle Pedestrian Warning Systems Using a Driving Simulator (드라이빙 시뮬레이터를 이용한 차내 보행자 충돌 경고정보시스템 효과평가 방법론 개발 및 적용)

  • Jang, Ji Yong;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.106-118
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to develop a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of in-vehicle pedestrian warning systems. Driving Simulator-based experiments were conducted to collect data to represent driver's responsive behavior. The braking frequency, lane change duration, and collision speed were used as measure of effectiveness (MOE) to evaluate the effectiveness. Collision speed data obtained from the simulation experiments were further used to predict pedestrian injury severity. Results demonstrated the effectiveness of warning information systems by reducing the pedestrian injury severity. It is expected that the proposed evaluation methodology and outcomes will be useful in developing various vehicular technologies and relevant policies to enhance pedestrian safety.

Safety evaluation of the domestic Offset procedure using the unidirectional dual airway collision risk model (단방향 복선 항공로 안전평가모델을 활용한 국내 Offset 절차 안전도 분석)

  • Se-eun Park;Hui-yang Kim
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.356-364
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    • 2023
  • Sophisticated Air Navigation System has contributed to enhancing the capacity of airspace capacity, leading to an efficient airspace environment. However, it has acted as a factor increasing the probability of collision. When an aircraft fails to maintain vertical separation and instead exhibits lateral positional errors, it does not necessarily lead to a collision. However, as the lateral positional accuracy increases, the randomness of aircraft positions decrease, resulting in an elevated probability of collisions. Consequently, The International Civil Aviation Organization has introduced Strategic Lateral Offset Procedures(SLOP), intentionally deviating aircraft from the centerline of airways. Likewise, South Korea also operates Offset procedure. The Y579 was operated using the Offset before its conversion to a dual airway and the analysis of the Offset track revealed that it was being operated similarly to a unidirectional dual airway. This paper develops a safety assessment methodology applicable to unidirectional dual airways, and applies it to perform a safety assessment of the Y579 Offset procedure.

Application of Risk-Informed Inservice Inspection for Piping in Nuclear Power Plants (리스크 정보를 활용한 배관 가동중검사 적용)

  • Jin, Young Bok;Jin, Seuk Hong;Moon, Yong Sig
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2011
  • Pressurized Water Reactor Owners Group(PWROG) proposed and applied a risk-informed inservice inspection(RI-ISI) program to alternate existing ASME Section XI periodic inspections. The RI-ISI programs enhance overall safety by focusing inspections of piping at high safety significant(HSS) and locations where failure mechanisms are likely to be present, and by improving the effectiveness on inspection of components because the examination methods are based on the postulated failure mode and the configuration of the piping structural element. The RI-ISI programs can reduce NDE, man-rem exposure, costs of engineering analysis, outage duration and chance of complicating plant operations etc. RI-ISI methods of piping inservice inspection were applied on 3 units(KSNP : Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant) and are scheduled to apply on the other units. In this paper, we compared and showed the results of the 2 units and we concluded that the RI-ISI application could enhance and maintain plant safety and give unquantifiable benefits.