• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 분석

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Group Emotion Prediction System based on Modular Bayesian Networks (모듈형 베이지안 네트워크 기반 대중 감성 예측 시스템)

  • Choi, SeulGi;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.44 no.11
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    • pp.1149-1155
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    • 2017
  • Recently, with the development of communication technology, it has become possible to collect various sensor data that indicate the environmental stimuli within a space. In this paper, we propose a group emotion prediction system using a modular Bayesian network that was designed considering the psychological impact of environmental stimuli. A Bayesian network can compensate for the uncertain and incomplete characteristics of the sensor data by the probabilistic consideration of the evidence for reasoning. Also, modularizing the Bayesian network has enabled flexible response and efficient reasoning of environmental stimulus fluctuations within the space. To verify the performance of the system, we predict public emotion based on the brightness, volume, temperature, humidity, color temperature, sound, smell, and group emotion data collected in a kindergarten. Experimental results show that the accuracy of the proposed method is 85% greater than that of other classification methods. Using quantitative and qualitative analyses, we explore the possibilities and limitations of probabilistic methodology for predicting group emotion.

The relations of the elderly's eating habits with their obesity (노인의 식습관에 따른 비만도)

  • Song, Hye-Young;Park, Hyo-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.5404-5412
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to analyze the effects of obesity and abdominal obesity in accordance with the elderly's food consumption frequency and patterns. Methods: The source of this study was based on raw data from the fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V-1, V-2, V-3). The subjects of the elderly aged 65 and over 5742 people were in the final analysis. Results: The results of the study showed that the elderly's obesity and abdominal obesity were significantly affected by their sex, food consumption frequency, smoking, and spouses. Moreover, subjects without dinner consumption had 0.658 times lower possibilities of obesity. In addition, consumption of three meals a day will be obesity 0.771 times lower than that of one or two meals a day(OR=0.771, 95%CI=0.65-0.913). Conclusions: The goal of this study is to achieve a better understanding of the characteristics of obesity depending on the elderly's eating habits and finally to present the baseline data for the improvement of their dietary habits.

Physical Modelling for Consistent Reasonable Thought and Stock-Price Flow Patterns (합리적 생각의 물리적 모델링과 주가 흐름 패턴 분석)

  • Park, Sangup
    • New Physics: Sae Mulli
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    • v.68 no.12
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    • pp.1364-1373
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    • 2018
  • A recognizable form having meaning is called a sign in semiotics. The sign is transformed into a physical counter form in this work. Its internal structure is restricted on the linguistic concept structure. We borrow the concept of a mathematical function from the utility function of a rational personal in the economy. Universalizing the utility function by introducing the consistency of independency on the manner of construction, we construct the probability. We introduce a random variable for the probability and join it to a position variable. Thus, we propose a physical sign and its serial changes in the forms of stochastic equations. The equations estimate three patterns (jumping, drifting, diffusing) of possible solutions, and we find them in the one-day stock-price flow. The periods of jumping, drifting and diffusing were about 2, 3.5, and 6 minutes for the Kia stock on 11/05/2014. Also, the semiotic sign (icon, index, symbol) can be expected from the equations.

Safety evaluation of the domestic Offset procedure using the unidirectional dual airway collision risk model (단방향 복선 항공로 안전평가모델을 활용한 국내 Offset 절차 안전도 분석)

  • Se-eun Park;Hui-yang Kim
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.356-364
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    • 2023
  • Sophisticated Air Navigation System has contributed to enhancing the capacity of airspace capacity, leading to an efficient airspace environment. However, it has acted as a factor increasing the probability of collision. When an aircraft fails to maintain vertical separation and instead exhibits lateral positional errors, it does not necessarily lead to a collision. However, as the lateral positional accuracy increases, the randomness of aircraft positions decrease, resulting in an elevated probability of collisions. Consequently, The International Civil Aviation Organization has introduced Strategic Lateral Offset Procedures(SLOP), intentionally deviating aircraft from the centerline of airways. Likewise, South Korea also operates Offset procedure. The Y579 was operated using the Offset before its conversion to a dual airway and the analysis of the Offset track revealed that it was being operated similarly to a unidirectional dual airway. This paper develops a safety assessment methodology applicable to unidirectional dual airways, and applies it to perform a safety assessment of the Y579 Offset procedure.

Development of Reservoir Operating Rule Using Explicit Stochastic Dynamic Programming (양해 추계학적 동적계획기법에 의한 저수지 운영률 개발)

  • Go, Seok-Gu;Lee, Gwang-Man;Lee, Han-Gu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.269-278
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    • 1997
  • Operating rules, the basic principle of reservoir operation, are mostly developed from maximum or minimum, mean inflow series so that those rules cannot be used in practical operating situations to estimate the expected benefits or provide the operating policies for uncertainty conditions. Many operating rules based on the deterministic method that considers all operation variables including inflows as known variables can not reflect to uncertainties of inflow variations. Explicit operating rules can be developed for improving the weakness. In this method, stochastic trend of inflow series, one of the reservoir operation variables, can be directly method, the stochastic technique was applied to develop reservoir operating rule. In this study, stochastic dynamic programming using the concepts was applied to develop optimal operating rule for the Chungju reservoir system. The developed operating rules are regarded as a practical usage because the operating policy is following up the basic concept of Lag-1 Markov except for flood season. This method can provide reservoir operating rule using the previous stage's inflow and the current stage's beginning storage when the current stage's inflow cannot be predicted properly.

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A Methodology of Estimating Design Waves for the Operable Harbor Condition Using Long-term Wave Data (장기 파랑측정자료를 이용한 평상파 산정 방법론)

  • Ahn Kyungmo;Chun Je Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.178-189
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    • 2004
  • For designing a reliable harbor, a methodology for estimating design waves of 97.5% operable harbor condition is suggested using long-term wave data. For a practical application of the methodology, a marine police harbor was selected as a site. Wave data used were collected from February 1993 to December 2003 at Jodo wave gage station in front of Pusan harbor. Joint distributions of significant wave height and significant wave period for specified wave directions were obtained and used to feed as input waves for parabolic mild-slope wave model. Results showed that input waves with significant wave height of 1.75 m, significant wave period off sec and wave direction E yield design waves height of 1.06 m at the site of interests, which is a 97.5% operable harbor condition. Wind waves generated inside harbor showed to be no effect on the design wave condition. Swells propagated from deep water into harbor are shown to be dominant effects on the design waves of operable harbor condition.

A Research on the Probabilistic Calculation Method of River Topographic Factors (하천 지형인자의 확률론적 산정 방식 연구)

  • Choo, Yeon-Moon;Ma, Yun-Han;Park, Sang-Ho;Sue, Jong-Chal;Kim, Yoon-Ku
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2020
  • Since the 1960s, many rivers have been polluted and destroyed due to river repair projects for economic development and the covering of small rivers due to urbanization. Many studies have analyzed rivers using measured river topographic factors, but surveying is not easy when the flow rate changes rapidly, such as during a flood. In addition, the previous research has been mainly about the cross section of a river, so information on the longitudinal profile is insufficient. This research used informational entropy theory to obtain an equation that can calculate the average river slope, river slope, and river longitudinal elevation for a river basin in real time. The applicability was analyzed through comparison with measured data of a river's characteristic factors obtained from a river plan. The parameters were calculated using informational entropy theory, nonlinear regression analysis, and actual data. The longitudinal elevation entropy equation for each stream was then calculated, and so was the average river slope. All of the values were over 0.96, so it seems that reliable results can be obtained when calculating river characteristic factors.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of Curved Beam with I-Shape Section (I-Shape 단면을 갖는 곡선 보의 지진 취약도 분석)

  • Jeon, Juntai;Ju, Bu-Seog;Son, Hoyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.379-386
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study was to the fragility evaluation of I-shape curved beam structure subjected to strong ground motions including Gyeongju and Pohang earthquakes Method: In particular, to conduct the analytical model, ABAQUS and ANSYS platform was used in this study. Furthermore, the analytical model using 3D Finite Element Model (FEM) was validated, in comparison to the theoretical solutions at the location of 025L, 05L, and 0.75L in static loading condition. In addition, in order to evaluate the seismic fragility of the curved beam structure, 20 seismic ground motions were selected and Monte-Carlo Simulation was used for the empirical fragility evaluation from 0.2g to 1.5g. Result: It was interesting to find that the probability of the system failure was found at 0.2g, as using 190 MPa limit state and the probability of the failure using 390 MPa limit state was starting from 0.6g. Conclusion: This study showed the comparison of the theoretical solution with analytical solution on I-shaped curved beam structures and it was interesting to note that the system subjected to strong ground motions was sensitive to high frequency earthquake. Further, the seismic fragility corresponding to the curved beam shapes must be evaluated.

An Analysis on the Data Distribution of Construction Equipment Operations - A Case on Muck Hauling System - (건설 장비 운영 데이터 분포 특성에 관한 연구 - 버력 처리 시스템을 중심으로 -)

  • Seo, Hyeong Beom;Jung, Won Ji;Kim, Kyoungmin;Kim, Kyong Ju
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4D
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    • pp.661-670
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    • 2006
  • The utilization of simulation has been limited in planning construction process because it is difficult to collect data and build a model using simulation method. This study collects construction operation data and analyzes the characteristics of its distribution. Through the statistical analysis on the empirical data, this study identifies Beta distribution functions is one of the most proper in duplicating the characteristics of construction equipment operation data into a computer simulation. The information obtained in this study can support preparing input data for another simulation.

The Concept of 'Risk' and the Proportionality Review of Infectious Disease Prevention Measures (감염병 팬데믹에서의 '리스크' 개념과 방역조치에 대한 비례성 심사의 구체화 -집합제한조치에 대한 국내외 판결을 중심으로-)

  • You, Kihoon
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-207
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    • 2022
  • As various state restrictions on individual freedom were imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns have been raised that excessive infringements on fundamental rights were indiscriminately permitted based on the public interest of preventing infectious diseases. Therefore, the question of how to set acceptable limits of liberty restrictions on individuals has emerged. However, since the phenomenon of infections spreading to the population is only predicted statistically, how to deal with the risk of the infected individual as a subject of legal analysis has become a problem. In the absence of a theoretical framework of legal analysis of risk, the risk of infected individuals during the pandemic was not analyzed strictly, and proportionality review of infection prevention measures was often only an abstract comparison of the importance of public interest and individual rights. Therefore, this research aims to conduct a theoretical review on how risk can be conceptualized legally in a public health crisis, and to develop a theoretical framework for proportionality review of the risk of liberty-limiting measures during a pandemic. Chapter 2 analyzes the legal philosophical concepts of risk, which are the basis for liberty restrictions during a public health crisis, and applies and extends them to the pandemic. Chapter 3 reviews previous studies related to liberty restriction measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and points out they have a limitation that specific criteria for the proportionality review of public health measures in the pandemic have not been presented. Accordingly, Chapter 3 specifies the methodological framework for proportionality review, referring to the theoretical discussion on risks in Chapter 2. Chapter 4 reviews the legitimacy of gathering restriction orders, applying the theoretical discussion in Chapter 2 and the criteria for proportionality review established in Chapter 3. In particular, Section 4 examines logic of proportionality review in judicial precedents over the ban on gathering restrictions implemented in the COVID-19 pandemic. In analyzing the precedents, the logic of proportionality review in each case is critically reviewed and reconstructed based on the theoretical framework presented in this research.