• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.9 no.spc
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• pp.123-147
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• 2003

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the probabilistic versus deterministic view of accident and safety using the indigenous and cultural perspectives. Death and injury due to accidents is the leading cause of preventable death in most countries, including Korea. The first part of this paper delineates the limitation of the linear, deterministic model that has been adopted in social and applied sciences. The transactional model, advocated by indigenous psychology, is provided to understand the probabilistic nature of accident and safety at home, in the workplace and in society. Second, factors related to accidents and safety are reviewed. Third, application of the probabilistic model for preventing accidents and promoting safety in Korea is outlined.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.31-62
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• 2006

이 논문은 포퍼의 후기 확률론인 성향적 확률론에 대한 것이다. 포퍼가 확률에 관한 성향이론을 제시한 가장 중요한 동기는 단일 사건에 확률값을 부여하기 위함이었다. 그의 성향이론은 전기와 후기로 나누어지는데, 전기의 이론은 성향을 반복가능한 조건들의 집합으로, 후기의 이론은 성향을 특정 시각에서의 우주의 상태로 설명한다. 이 글은 포퍼의 전기와 후기 성향이론이 성공적이지 않음을 논증한다. 전기 성향이론에 대해서는 가장 좁은 준거집합의 원리의 문제에 부딪혀서 단일 사건에 대하여 객관적인 확률값을 부여할 수 없기 때문이고, 후기 성향이론은 성향을 약한 인과라고 해석하는 문제와 함께 포퍼 자신의 의도와 달리 형이상학적인 이론이 되어버렸기 때문이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.69-70
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• 2019

서비스디자인 분야의 확장에 따라 서비스디자인 대상이 광범위해지면서 상황에 따른 적절한 방법론 선정이 어려워지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 수집된 다양한 데이터를 유형화하는 단계에서 데이터의 특성에 따라 서비스디자이너의 주관이 개입될 확률이 크다는 문제를 해결하기 위해 분석의 정확성을 높이기 위해 벤 다이어그램 활용을 제안하였다. 그 과정에서 기존에 많이 사용되고 있는 $2{\times}2$ 매트릭스 방법론과 벤 다이어그램을 비교하여 $2{\times}2$ 매트릭스의 한계를 지적하고, 보완된 형태의 벤 다이어그램을 3가지로 제안하고 검증하였다.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.273-282
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• 2023

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been widely used to evaluate the seismic risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, studies on seismic PSA for process plants, such as gas plants, oil refineries, and chemical plants, have been scarce. This is because the major disasters to which these process plants are vulnerable include explosions, fires, and release (or dispersion) of toxic chemicals. However, seismic PSA is essential for the plants located in regions with significant earthquake risks. Seismic PSA entails probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), event tree analysis (ETA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and fragility analysis for the structures and essential equipment items. Among those analyses, ETA can depict the accident sequence for core damage, which is the worst disaster and top event concerning NPPs. However, there is no general top event with regard to process plants. Therefore, PSA cannot be directly applied to process plants. Moreover, there is a paucity of studies on developing fragility curves for various equipment. This paper introduces PSA for gas plants based on FTA, which is then transformed into Bayesian network, that is, a probabilistic graph model that can aid risk-informed decision-making. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a gas plant, and several decision-making cases are demonstrated.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.97-111
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• 2013

It is very important to understand the condition of the surround rock for the successful construction of underground space. Representative methods of estimating the rock mass condition are RMR method and Q-system, and they are applied on design, construction, and maintenance. However, many problems with the accuracy of the measurement method and the subjective viewpoint are questioned continuously, so many researchers have been studied for estimating rock condition from various methods. Most of them show only the local relation and a tendency between site investigation data and rock conditions. In this paper, the relationship between RMR method and electrical resistivity is deducted using the analytical equation derived theoretically from electric field analysis on jointed rock mass. And also, probabilistic relationship between RMR method and electrical resistivity is deducted for the increase of accuracy. If a suggested method is applied with the conventional method for estimating the rock condition, it will be helpful to estimate RMR values on the field.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.13-17
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• 2018

According to the recent blackouts, large blackouts can be described by cascading outages. Cascading outage is defined by sequential outages from an initial disturbance. Sequential and probabilistic approach are necessary to minimize the blackout damage caused by cascading outages. In addition, conventional cascading outage analysis models are computationally complex and have time constraints, it is necessary to develop the new analytical techniques. In this paper, we propose the advance visualization model for probabilistic analysis of cascading failure risks. We introduce the visualization model for identifying size of cascading and potential outages and estimate the propagation rate of sequential outage simulation. The proposed model is applied to Korean power systems.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.71-79
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• 2016

Evaluation of the walkability of the urban pedestrian network requires construction of a pedestrian network model that reflects Space Syntax Theory. Space Syntax Theory deduces an integration value through which materials for evaluation of the pedestrian network's connectivity can be produced; and can aid in illustrating the ease of walkability through the model's calculation of pedestrian indices such as movability, comfort, and safety. But the representation of space syntax theory in the pedestrian network requires that turn delay be added by means of a network-type construction method. While tree-based Dial Algorithm proposed for the logit-based probability walkability distribution model may be effective for link-based pedestrian volume distribution, it requires further network expansion to reflect turn delays. In this research, Vine-based Dial Algorithm is executed in order to obtain a measure reflecting the integration value for Space Syntax Theory. The Vine-based Dial Algorithm of two adjacent links, which forms the minimum unit of the Vine network, has the advantage of encompassing turn delay, and thus eliminates the need for network expansion. Usage of the model to evaluation of complicated pedestrian spheres such as urban roads is left to further research. Especially the progression of the proposed method is deduced through case study.

• Design Convergence Study
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.195-214
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• 2016

Predictive analysis is based on a probabilistic learning algorithm called pattern recognition or machine learning. Therefore, if users want to extract more information from the data, they are required high statistical knowledge. In addition, it is difficult to find out data pattern and characteristics of the data. This study conducted statistical data analyses and visual data analyses to supplement prediction analysis's weakness. Through this study, we could find some implications that haven't been found in the previous studies. First, we could find data pattern when adjust data selection according as splitting criteria for the decision tree method. Second, we could find what type of data included in the final prediction model. We found some implications that haven't been found in the previous studies from the results of statistical and visual analyses. In statistical analysis we found relation among the multivariable and deducted prediction model to predict high box office performance. In visualization analysis we proposed visual analysis method with various interactive functions. Finally through this study we verified final prediction model and suggested analysis method extract variety of information from the data.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.360-360
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• 2022

토양수분과 유출 간 관계를 정량화하는 것은 수문 기작 및 유출 발생 과정의 이해를 위한 중요한 정보를 제공한다. 특히, 유출과정의 특성화는 수문 사상에 따른 불포화대 내 토양수 및 토사 손실 제어와 산사태 및 비점오염원 발생 예측을 위해 필수적이다. 유출과정과 관련된 비선형성과 복잡성을 확인하기 위해 토양수분과 유출 사이의 이력 거동이 조사되었다. 특히, 수문 과정 내 이력 현상 구체화를 위해 정성적인 시각적 분류 및 정량적 평가를 위한 이력 지수들이 개발되었다. 정성적인 시각적 분류는 시간에 따라 시계 및 반시계방향으로 다중 루프 형상을 나누는 방식으로 진행되었고, 정량적 평가의 경우 이력 고리(Hysteretic loop) 내 상승 고리(Rising limb)와 하강 고리(Falling limb)의 차이를 기준으로 한 지수로 이력 현상을 특성화하였다. 이전에 제안된 방법론들은 연구자의 판단이 들어가기 때문에 보편적이지 않고 이력 현상을 개발된 지수에 맞춤에 따라 자료 손실이 나타나는 한계가 존재한다. 자료의 손실 없이 불포화대 내 발생 가능한 대표 이력 현상을 자동으로 추출하기 위해 적합한 비지도 학습기반 기계학습 방법론의 제안이 필요하다. 우리 연구에서는 국내 산지 사면에서 강우 사상 동안 다중 깊이(10, 30, 60cm)로 56개의 토양수분 측정지점에서 확보된 토양수분 시계열 자료와 산지 사면 내 위어를 통해 확보된 유출 시계열 자료를 사용하였다. 먼저, 기존에 분류 방법을 기반으로 계절 및 공간특성에 따라 지배적으로 발생하는 토양수분-유출 간 이력 현상을 특성화하였다. 다음으로, 토양수분-유출 간 이력 패턴을 자료 손실 없이 형상화하여 자동으로 데이터베이스화하는 알고리즘을 개발하였다. 마지막으로, 비지도 학습방법을 이용하여 데이터베이스화된 실제 발현 이력 현상 내 확률분포를 최대한 가깝게 추정하는 은닉층을 반복적인 재구성 학습을 통해 구현함으로써 대표 이력 현상 패턴을 추출하였다.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.62-70
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• 2016

Ensuring walkability in a city where pedestrians and vehicles coexist is an issue of critical importance. The relative relationship between vehicle transit and walkability improvements complicates the evaluation of walkability, which thus necessitates the formation of a quantitative standard by which a methodological measurement of walkability can be achieved inside the pedestrian network. Therefore, a model is determined whereby quantitative indices such as, but not limited to, experiences of accessibility, mobility, and convenience within the network are estimated. This research proposes the integration of space syntax theory and the logit path choice model in the evaluation of walkability. Space syntax theory assesses adequacy of the constructed pedestrian network through calculation of the link integration value, while the logit model estimates its safety, mobility, and accessibility using probability. The advantage of the integrated model hence lies in its ability to sufficiently reflect such evaluation measures as the integration value, mobility convenience, accessibility potential, and safety experienced by the demand in a quantitative manner through probability computation. In this research, the Dial Algorithm is used to arrive at a solution to the logit model. This process requires that the physical distance of the pedestrian network and the perceptive distance of space syntax theory be made equivalent. In this, the research makes use of network expansion to reflect wait times. The evaluation index calculated through the integrated model is reviewed and using the results of this sample network, the applicability of the model is assessed.