• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.99-106
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• 2023

글로벌 팬데믹 사태는 항공 수요에 부정적인 영향을 끼치는 요소 중 하나다. 글로벌 팬데믹으로 인해 한국은 2020년과 2021년의 항공 승객 수가 2019년 대비 각각 68.1%와 47% 감소했다. 본 연구는 지난 20여년 동안 발생한 4대 팬데믹 특성을 분석, 전염병의 영향을 연구하는 것을 목표로 한다. SARS, H1N1, MERS 및 COVID-19의 발생기간 동안 한국의 항공 여객 및 화물 수요에 대한 실증 데이터를 활용하여 영향력을 분석한다. 또한 머신러닝 회귀 모델을 구축하여 향후 발생할 다른 전염병 대한 항공 수요를 예측하고자 한다. 연구 결과, 전염병이 항공 운항편수와 승객에 부정적인 영향을 미친다는 사실을 발견하였다. 반면화물 수송에는 긍정적인 영향을 미친다는 분석 결과를 도출하였다. 본 분석에 활용되는 회귀 모델은 팬데믹 기간 동안 항공수요를 예측하는 데 평균 86.8%의 기능을 보였다. 또한 본 연구는 특정 국가의 팬데믹 상황보다 전 세계적인 팬데믹 상황이 항공 운송 수요에 더 많은 영향을 미친다는 것을 보여준다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.47-54
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• 2004

Recently, a large reduction in domestic aviation demand had roughly shown in the range between 34% and 75% in east central and western corridor of Korea. The reasons for the drop in air traffic demand were the provisioning of several new highway serveces and the national economic difficulties. Since April 2004, moreover, the Korea Train Express(KTX) was operated between Seoul and Daegu in the first phrase of 293Km in KTX operational distance and 258Km in air route distance. The operation of KTX significantly impacted air traffic volume, particularly on the overlapped air routes with KTX routes. This study analyzed the effects on air traffic demand in accordance with the opening of KTX by applying the Stated Preference (SP) survey method, the survey conducted prior to 8 months of the KTX initiative. Also, the comparison of the decreased demand forecast by SP analysis and actual revealed traffic volume during two months service after inauguration of KTX was conducted. The Seoul-Daegu route was analysed using the 3 variables considered access and egress time, fare rate, operational frequency. The result obtained from the analysis showed that air users would be preferred only 14%. Comparatively, however, the actual revealed air passengers after the opening KTX were remained 28%, The less "decreased demand" was caused by the instability of the KTX's operation in the initial stage. Therefore, small numbers of passenger were preferable to airservices rather than high speed railroad service.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.141-154
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• 2018

In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

• Aerospace Industry
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• v.80
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• pp.8-11
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• 2003

세계 상업용 항공기 생산의 양대 산맥을 이루는 보잉과 에어버스는 해마다 세계 항공여행 수요를 분석하고 이를 바탕으로 향후 20년을 전망하는 여객기와 화물기의 수요분석 자료를 발간하고 있다. 다음은 보잉의 Current Market Outlook 2002와 에어버스의 Global Market Forecast 2001~2002를 통해 양사의 항공기 수요전망과 시장전략을 비교해 본다.

• Aerospace Industry
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• v.61
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• pp.36-39
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• 1998

21세기에는 항공여객의 수송 수요가 비약적으로 증가할 것으로 예측되고 있다. 수요의 한쪽은 수송의 대형화이며 다른 한쪽은 수송의 고속화이다. 이런 수요를 충족하기 위해서는 경제성과 환경친화성을 겸비한 차세대 수송기 개발이 오래전부터 요망되어 항공기 제조 선진 각국은 한걸음 한걸음 이들 수요에 부응할 신종항공기의 개발을 추진중에 있다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.95-106
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• 2016

Air transportation demand is consistently increasing in Korea due to economic growth and low cost carriers. For this reason, airport expansion plans are being discussed in Korea. Therefore, it is essential to forecast reliable air transportation demand with adequate methods. However, most of the air transportation demand models in Korea has been developed by simple regression analysis with several dummy variables. Simple regression analysis without considering stationarity of time-series data can bring spurious outputs when a direct causal relationship between explanatory variables and dependent variable does not exist. In this paper, econometric model were developed for air transportation demand based on stationarity in time-series data. Unit root test and co-integration test are used for testing hypothesis of stationarity.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2021.01a
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• pp.281-282
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• 2021

본 논문에서는 항공 수요예측을 위한 빅데이터 기반 플랫폼의 설계 및 실증 결과를 제시한다. 항공 수요예측 통합 플랫폼은 항공산업 관련 데이터를 Open API, RSS Feed, 웹크롤러(Web Crawler) 등을 이용하여 수집 및 분석하여 자체 개발한 항공 수요예측 알고리즘을 기반으로 결과를 시각화하여 보여주도록 구현되어 있다. 또한, 제안하는 플랫폼의 사용자 인터페이스를 통해 변수 설정을 하여 단위별(Global, National 등), 기간별(단기, 중장기 등), 유형별(여객, 화물 등) 예측 통계 자료를 도출할 수 있다. 플랫폼의 성능 검증을 위해 정형화된 데이터를 비롯하여 소셜네트워크서비스(SNS), 검색엔진 등에서 수집한 비정형 데이터까지 활용하여 특정 키워드의 빈도와 특정 노선에 대한 항공 수요간 상관관계를 분석하였다. 개발한 통합 플랫폼의 지능형 항공 수요예측 알고리즘을 통해 전반적인 공항 운영 및 공항 운영 정책 수립에 기여할 것으로 예상한다.

• Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.12-22
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• 2010

The great recession which caused by financial crisis made steep rise of oil price and the serious problems of the aircraft industry. High oil price increases operating cost and the recession decreases air traffic. After a period of high book order and delivery from global economic recovery, the aircraft order fell down suddenly. Also the Aircraft price and lease rate deceased and the MRO market is reduced, too. But, the air cargo and passenger increase again since late of 2009. So, it is difficult to predict the market movement, most of the forecasters agreed that the air traffic and aircraft demand will grow gradually in long term with the growth of emerging markets like China, India and Africa. And more efficient, safe and clean aircraft is needed and will need in the market.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.137-143
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• 2018

Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and $R^2$, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.13 no.7
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• pp.281-289
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• 2008

In this study, a discrete-event simulation model is developed to estimate load factors and the corresponding revenues under different pricing and dispatching policies. The model has been employed to forecast the inbound and the outbound air cargo demands of the major Northeastern Chinese cities, and the simulation results were compared to the actual demands obtained from real-life airline operations. The statistical analysis confirms that the simulation model is able to provide accurate estimates for air cargo demands, and thus, the model may be employed to be a useful tool for air cargo demand management.