• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.759-774
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• 2017

Earthquake concerns have grown after a remarkable earthquake incident on September 12th, 2016 in Gyeongju, Korea. Earthquake forecasting is gaining in importance in order to guarantee infrastructure safety and develop protection policies. In this paper, we adopt a power-law distribution model to fit past earthquake occurrences in Korea with various historical and modern seismological records. We estimated power-law distribution parameters using empirical distributions and calculated the future probabilities for large earthquake events based on our model. We provide the probability that a future event has a larger magnitude than given levels, and the probability that a future event over certain levels will occur in a given period of time. This model contributes to the assessment of latent seismological risk in Korea by estimating future earthquake probabilities.

• Proceedings of the KSEEG Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.123-130
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• 2003

어떤 지역에서 발생가능한 지진동을 확률적으로 예측하기 위해서는 그 지역을 포함한 광범위한 지역의 지진원(seismic source zone)을 정의하지 않으면 안된다. 지진원이란 동일한 지진학적, 지체구조적, 지질학적 양상을 가지는 지역을 의미하며, 지진활동이 지역내에서 균질로 하나의 지진규모 - 발생빈도 관계식에 의해 표현될 수 있는 지역으로 가정된다. 또한 하나의 지진원 내의 지진활동성은 그 지역 전반에 걸쳐 고르게 분포하고 미래의 지진은 그 지역내의 어떠한 곳에서도 발생할 수 있다고 가정된다. (중략)

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.87-98
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• 2015

Safety assessments of geological radioactive waste disposal systems, need to consider the abnormal scenario in which a system is impacted by external events in addition to a reference scenario. In this study, the characterization and prediction of an earthquake as an external event which will impact disposal systems were conducted probabilistically and statistically for the safety assessment. The domestic earthquake data were analyzed, and the prediction methodologies of the earthquake were suggested with a computational example. From the results, the earthquake occurrence rates in Korea ranged from 0.4 /yr to 36.2 /yr depending on the data set and the completeness magnitude. From a conservative point of view, the earthquake occurrence rate in the disposal system was suggested as 5.4×10^-4 /yr considering the area of the disposal system. At that time, the completeness magnitude of an earthquake was 2.3. This study will be followed by an appraisal of impacts associated with external events on the geological disposal system, and it will contribute to improvements in reliability of the safety assessment.