Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2017.30.5.759

Forecasting probabilities of earthquake in Korea based on seismological data  

Choi, Seowon (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University)
Jang, Woncheol (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.30, no.5, 2017 , pp. 759-774 More about this Journal
Abstract
Earthquake concerns have grown after a remarkable earthquake incident on September 12th, 2016 in Gyeongju, Korea. Earthquake forecasting is gaining in importance in order to guarantee infrastructure safety and develop protection policies. In this paper, we adopt a power-law distribution model to fit past earthquake occurrences in Korea with various historical and modern seismological records. We estimated power-law distribution parameters using empirical distributions and calculated the future probabilities for large earthquake events based on our model. We provide the probability that a future event has a larger magnitude than given levels, and the probability that a future event over certain levels will occur in a given period of time. This model contributes to the assessment of latent seismological risk in Korea by estimating future earthquake probabilities.
Keywords
earthquake; forecasting; power-law model; seismological records;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Clauset, A., Shalazi, C. R., and Newman, M. E. J. (2009). Power-law distributions in empirical data, SIAM Reviews, 51, 661-703.   DOI
2 Clauset, A. and Woodard, R. (2013). Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events, The Annals of Applied Statistics, 7, 1838-1865.   DOI
3 Condie, K. C. (1997). Plate Tectonics and Crustal Evolution (4th ed.), Butterworth-Heinemann, 282.
4 Jun M. S. and Jeon, J. S. (2010). Earthquake mechanism characteristics of the Korea Peninsula, Jigu-Mulli-wa-Mulli-Tamsa, 13, 198-202.
5 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) (2012). Historical Earthquake Records in Korea (2-1904 Year), KMA.
6 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) (2017). National Seismologic Records, accessed in Jan. 2017: http://www.kma.go.kr
7 Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) (2012). Active Fault Map and Seismic Harzard Map, KIGAM, 2012.
8 Kim, S. G and Gao, F. (1995). Seismic Gaps in Korean Peninsula and Hazard Possibility, The Seismological Institute, Hanyang University
9 Korea Infrastructure Safety and Technology Companion (KISTEC) (2017). Glossary in Seismology - Intensity, Magnitude, accessed in Jan. 2017: https://www.kistec.or.kr/kistec/earth/earth0303.asp.
10 Lee, K. H. (2010). Comments on seismicity and crustal structure of the Korean Peninsula Jigu-Mulli-wa-Mulli-Tamsa, 13, 256-267.
11 North Korea Seismology Laboratory (1986). The List of Earthquakes in Chosun, North Korea Seismology Laboratory, 1986.
12 Reedman, A. J., and Um, S. H. (1975). Geology of Korea, Geological and Mineral Institute of Korea, Seoul, 139.
13 Shimazaki, K. (1984). Mid-plate, plate-margin, and plate-boundary earthquakes and stress transmission in far east. in A Collection of Papers of the International Symposium on Continental Seismicity and Earthquake Prediction(ISCSEP),The Organizing Committee of ISCSEP, Seismological Press, Beijing.
14 USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) (2017). Earthquake Glossary - Earthquake. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/glossary/?term=earthquake [accessed in Jan. 2017]
15 Chough, S. K. (2000). Tectonic and sedimentary evolution of the Korean peninsula: a review and new view, Earth-Science Reviews, 52, 175-235.   DOI