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Future Prospects of Forest Type Change Determined from National Forest Inventory Time-series Data (시계열 국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용한 전국 산림의 임상 변화 특성 분석과 미래 전망)

  • Eun-Sook, Kim;Byung-Heon, Jung;Jae-Soo, Bae;Jong-Hwan, Lim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.4
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2022
  • Natural and anthropogenic factors cause forest types to continuously change. Since the ratio of forest area by forest type is important information for identifying the characteristics of national forest resources, an accurate understanding of the prospect of forest type change is required. The study aim was to use National Forest Inventory (NFI) time-series data to understand the characteristics of forest type change and to estimate future prospects of nationwide forest type change. We used forest type change information from the fifth and seventh NFI datasets, climate, topography, forest stand, and disturbance variables related to forest type change to analyze trends and characteristics of forest type change. The results showed that the forests in Korea are changing in the direction of decreasing coniferous forests and increasing mixed and broadleaf forests. The forest sites that were changing from coniferous to mixed forests or from mixed to broadleaf forests were mainly located in wet topographic environments and climatic conditions. The forest type changes occurred more frequently in sites with high disturbance potential (high temperature, young or sparse forest stands, and non-forest areas). We used a climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) to establish a forest type change model (SVM) to predict future changes. During the 40-year period from 2015 to 2055, the SVM predicted that coniferous forests will decrease from 38.1% to 28.5%, broadleaf forests will increase from 34.2% to 38.8%, and mixed forests will increase from 27.7% to 32.7%. These results can be used as basic data for establishing future forest management strategies.

Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.187-201
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    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

Evaluation on the Implementation of Girl Friendly Science Activity (여학생 친화적 과학활동 프로그램의 운영 평가)

  • Jhun, Young-Seok;Shin, Young-Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.442-458
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to develop a plan for a large-scale implementation of the Girl Friendly Science Program based on the results of analysis and investigation of its current pilot implementation, Girl Friendly Science Program materials, which was first developed in 1999 with the support from Ministry of Gender Equality, consist of 1) five theme-based units that are specifically targeted individual students' unique ability, aptitude, and career choice, and 2) differentiated learning materials for 7th through 10th grade female students. All the materials are available at the homepage (http://tes.or.kr/gfsp.cgi) of 'Teachers for Exciting Science(the organization of science teachers in Seoul area)'. Since the materials are well organized by topic and grade level and presented in both Korean word process document and html format, anyone can easily access to the materials for their own instructional use. Ever since its launch the number of visitors to the homepage has been constantly increasing. The evaluation results of the current pilot implementation of the materials that targeted individual students' ability and aptitude showed that it scored high in terms of its alignment to the original purpose, content, level, and effectiveness to implement in classrooms. However, its evaluation scores were low in terms of the convenience for teachers to guide the materials, and its organization and operation. The results also showed a significant change in students' perception of science, and students' positive experiences of science through various interdisciplinary activities. On the other hand, the evaluation of students' experiences with the materials showed that students' assessment about an activity was largely depending on a success or failure of their experiences. Overall, students' evaluation of activities scores were low for simple activities such as cutting off or pasting papers. According to students' achievement test results, differences between pre and post test scores in the Affective Domain was statistically significant (p<0.05), but not in Inquiry Domain. Based on teachers observations, numerous schools where have run this program reported that students' abilities to cooperate, discuss, observe and reason with evidences were improved. In order to implement this program in a larger scale, it is critical to have a strong support of teachers and induce them to change their teaching strategy through building a community of teachers and developing ongoing teacher professional development programs. Finally, there still remain strong needs to develop more programs, and actively discover and train more domestic woman scientists and engineers and collaborate with them to develop more educational materials for girls in all ages.

Analysis of Knowledge and Competency for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Based on Anderson's Revision of Bloom's Taxonomy: Focused on Achievement Standard in the 2015 revised Practical Arts(Technology·Home Economics) (Bloom의 신교육목표 분류체계에 기초한 4차 산업혁명 시대에 요구하는 지식과 역량 분석: 2015 개정 실과(기술·가정) 교육과정의 가정과 성취기준을 대상으로)

  • Yang, Ji Sun;Lee, Gyeong Suk
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.129-149
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    • 2018
  • This study has attempted to analyze the achievement standards in the 2015 revised curriculum, based on the revision of Bloom's Taxonomy and aims to identify the knowledge and required competencies in the fourth industrial era. The results of this study are as follows: First, the knowledge dimensions was the highest 'metacognitive knowledge' in middle school, while 'factual knowledge' was the highest in high school, and 'knowledge of specific details and elements' was the highest subtype of all of the knowledge dimensions. The dimensions of the cognitive process, such as the terms 'apply' and 'analyze' in middle school, as 'understand' and 'evaluate' in high school have been treated inattentively. Second, the knowledge dimension and the cognitive process dimension according to key concepts display the metacognitive knowledge and 'understand' in development, the conceptual knowledge and 'understand' in relationship. While the 'metacognitive knowledge' and 'apply' in life culture, the 'procedural knowledge' and 'evaluate' in safety, the 'factual knowledge' and 'apply' in management and the 'metacognitive knowledge' and 'understand' in life design were extremely high. Third, the verbs used in the achievement standards displayed as 'explore', 'understand', 'analyze', 'practice', 'suggest', 'recognize' and 'evaluate'. Since the statement of the action verb is the very basis for determining the performance process, specific competencies may be achieved by reflecting on the actual achievement standards. These standards should provide us with a effective cognitive process for to understand a learner's performance skills and support the direction of the education required, through a strategy that refines the connection between content elements and functions and develop their competences for the future.

The Lean Startup: Korea's Case Study-Cardoc (린 스타트업 방법론의 적용: 한국 '카닥' 사례를 중심으로)

  • Na, Hee Kyung;Lee, Hee Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.29-43
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    • 2016
  • The Lean Startup, a methodology for minimizing failure rate of startups, has been receiving attention since its publication in 2011. Although it has been receiving enormous attention as an effective methodology of startups' growth and the emergence of unicorn companies, it is undeniable that the theoretical research and cases on this topic have not been fully accumulated in Korea. Progress of management theory has been made when combining the theory and case studies. In this paper, we thus excavated the 'Cardoc' case, which has applied the lean startup concept to the entire process of service and customer development from the inception of its product design. The following are the findings of the case. First, for the successful application of lean startup, it is essential that all team members to understand the lean startup concept and are willing to apply it thoroughly to the business management. Second, the prompt launching of MVP(Minimum Viable Product) is more important than table discussion. Third, it is crucial to select the appropriate key metrics and analytic tools for effective learning. Fourth, startup must scale up promptly as soon as it verifies the product-market fit through the BML(Build-Measure-Learn) iteration cycle. Fifth, all new business expansion should be lean. Cardoc is currently testing new MVPs in order to move onto the next scale-up process with huge investments in newly added segments. This study is meaningful in that it elaborates the representative case of a Korean startup that has applied the lean startup strategy under the circumstance of insufficient discussion of Korean startup cases in comparison with growing attention both in concept development and case accumulation abroad. We hope that this paper can be a stepping stone for future relevant research on the implementation of lean startup methodology in Korea.

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Problem-Finding Process and Effect Factor by University Students in an Ill-Structured Problem Situation (비구조화된 문제 상황에서 이공계 대학생들의 문제발견 과정 및 문제발견에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Kang, Eu-Gene;Kim, Ji-Na
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.570-585
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    • 2012
  • The Korean national curriculum for secondary school emphasizes scientific problem solving. In line with the national curriculum, many educational studies have been conducted in relation to science education. The objects of these studies were well-defined and well-structured problems. The studies were criticized for overlooking ill-defined and ill-structured problems. Some research has dealt with problem finding in ill-structured problems, which is related to creativity. There is a need for a study of scientific problem finding process in an ill-structured problem situation, because this study will help teachers wanting to teach scientific problem-finding in an ill-structured problem situation. The objective of this study was to conduct an empirical study on the scientific problem finding process in an ill-structured problem situation. One task of scientific problem finding in an ill-structured problem situation was assigned to 92 university students; thereafter, 32 of them participated in the research through interviews. Results indicated that the scientific problem finding process depended on initial clues and tentative solutions. Initial clues were affected by students' experiences, such as major classes, films, and novels. Tentative solutions were influenced by background knowledge of the tasks. Students screened information browsed on the Internet. They applied some standards for selection, particularly emphasized reliability standards, which are supposed to be studied in other contexts. All the students used assumptions to make their problems appear probable, which could be a useful tool to articulate.

Analysis of Character Competency Change in High School Students by Role Assignment in Argument-Based Inquiry(ABI) Science Class (논의-기반 탐구 과학수업에서 역할분담에 따른 고등학생들의 인성 역량 변화 분석)

  • Cho, Hye Sook;Seo, Minsook;Nam, Jeonghee;Kwon, Jeong In;Son, Jeongwoo;Park, Jongseok
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.763-773
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of Argument-Based Inquiry (ABI) strategy on student's character competency. For this study, 51 grade 11 students (two classes) were selected to the role assignment (ABI-R group) and 46 students (two classes) were assigned to the non-role assignment group (ABI group). In the result, the role assignment group (ABI-R group) showed a statistically higher change in character competency than the group without role assignment (ABI group). Particularly, the ABI-R group has significantly higher grade than ABI group in empathy, responsibility, and respect among the sub-factors of character competency. However, in the case of the cooperation factor of character competency, the ABI group showed statistically significant higher grade than ABI-R group. The results of this study showed that Argument-Based Inquiry (ABI) as teaching and learning strategies in science can contribute to the enhancement of human character competency. In addition, we suggest that students should be actively involved in the class through role assignment, but it is necessary to present the class situation so that they can be actively engaged according to the problem situation rather than being fixed in a given role.

Recommender system using BERT sentiment analysis (BERT 기반 감성분석을 이용한 추천시스템)

  • Park, Ho-yeon;Kim, Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2021
  • If it is difficult for us to make decisions, we ask for advice from friends or people around us. When we decide to buy products online, we read anonymous reviews and buy them. With the advent of the Data-driven era, IT technology's development is spilling out many data from individuals to objects. Companies or individuals have accumulated, processed, and analyzed such a large amount of data that they can now make decisions or execute directly using data that used to depend on experts. Nowadays, the recommender system plays a vital role in determining the user's preferences to purchase goods and uses a recommender system to induce clicks on web services (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Youtube). For example, Youtube's recommender system, which is used by 1 billion people worldwide every month, includes videos that users like, "like" and videos they watched. Recommended system research is deeply linked to practical business. Therefore, many researchers are interested in building better solutions. Recommender systems use the information obtained from their users to generate recommendations because the development of the provided recommender systems requires information on items that are likely to be preferred by the user. We began to trust patterns and rules derived from data rather than empirical intuition through the recommender systems. The capacity and development of data have led machine learning to develop deep learning. However, such recommender systems are not all solutions. Proceeding with the recommender systems, there should be no scarcity in all data and a sufficient amount. Also, it requires detailed information about the individual. The recommender systems work correctly when these conditions operate. The recommender systems become a complex problem for both consumers and sellers when the interaction log is insufficient. Because the seller's perspective needs to make recommendations at a personal level to the consumer and receive appropriate recommendations with reliable data from the consumer's perspective. In this paper, to improve the accuracy problem for "appropriate recommendation" to consumers, the recommender systems are proposed in combination with context-based deep learning. This research is to combine user-based data to create hybrid Recommender Systems. The hybrid approach developed is not a collaborative type of Recommender Systems, but a collaborative extension that integrates user data with deep learning. Customer review data were used for the data set. Consumers buy products in online shopping malls and then evaluate product reviews. Rating reviews are based on reviews from buyers who have already purchased, giving users confidence before purchasing the product. However, the recommendation system mainly uses scores or ratings rather than reviews to suggest items purchased by many users. In fact, consumer reviews include product opinions and user sentiment that will be spent on evaluation. By incorporating these parts into the study, this paper aims to improve the recommendation system. This study is an algorithm used when individuals have difficulty in selecting an item. Consumer reviews and record patterns made it possible to rely on recommendations appropriately. The algorithm implements a recommendation system through collaborative filtering. This study's predictive accuracy is measured by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Netflix is strategically using the referral system in its programs through competitions that reduce RMSE every year, making fair use of predictive accuracy. Research on hybrid recommender systems combining the NLP approach for personalization recommender systems, deep learning base, etc. has been increasing. Among NLP studies, sentiment analysis began to take shape in the mid-2000s as user review data increased. Sentiment analysis is a text classification task based on machine learning. The machine learning-based sentiment analysis has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to identify the review's information expression because it is challenging to consider the text's characteristics. In this study, we propose a deep learning recommender system that utilizes BERT's sentiment analysis by minimizing the disadvantages of machine learning. This study offers a deep learning recommender system that uses BERT's sentiment analysis by reducing the disadvantages of machine learning. The comparison model was performed through a recommender system based on Naive-CF(collaborative filtering), SVD(singular value decomposition)-CF, MF(matrix factorization)-CF, BPR-MF(Bayesian personalized ranking matrix factorization)-CF, LSTM, CNN-LSTM, GRU(Gated Recurrent Units). As a result of the experiment, the recommender system based on BERT was the best.

Analysis of the Impact of Satellite Remote Sensing Information on the Prediction Performance of Ungauged Basin Stream Flow Using Data-driven Models (인공위성 원격 탐사 정보가 자료 기반 모형의 미계측 유역 하천유출 예측성능에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Seo, Jiyu;Jung, Haeun;Won, Jeongeun;Choi, Sijung;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.147-159
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    • 2024
  • Lack of streamflow observations makes model calibration difficult and limits model performance improvement. Satellite-based remote sensing products offer a new alternative as they can be actively utilized to obtain hydrological data. Recently, several studies have shown that artificial intelligence-based solutions are more appropriate than traditional conceptual and physical models. In this study, a data-driven approach combining various recurrent neural networks and decision tree-based algorithms is proposed, and the utilization of satellite remote sensing information for AI training is investigated. The satellite imagery used in this study is from MODIS and SMAP. The proposed approach is validated using publicly available data from 25 watersheds. Inspired by the traditional regionalization approach, a strategy is adopted to learn one data-driven model by integrating data from all basins, and the potential of the proposed approach is evaluated by using a leave-one-out cross-validation regionalization setting to predict streamflow from different basins with one model. The GRU + Light GBM model was found to be a suitable model combination for target basins and showed good streamflow prediction performance in ungauged basins (The average model efficiency coefficient for predicting daily streamflow in 25 ungauged basins is 0.7187) except for the period when streamflow is very small. The influence of satellite remote sensing information was found to be up to 10%, with the additional application of satellite information having a greater impact on streamflow prediction during low or dry seasons than during wet or normal seasons.

Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.